The sirens of power and German foreign policy: Who is listening?

The unification of Germany has, unsurprisingly, provoked much speculation as to the future foreign policy of the country. Two images ‐ Germany as Gulliver and Germany as Ulysses ‐ have dominated the debate, each coming in a popular and an academic version. This article analyses German foreign policy behaviour and discourse in order to determine which one is more accurate. As to behaviour, the article examines two examples from the core sector of national security policy as well as how Germany's relations developed with France, the United States, Russia and Poland. As to discourse, five ‘schools of thought’ in the current debate about German foreign policy are related to a set of five grand strategies that are suggested either in the literature or in public debate. In both words and deeds the analysis shows that united Germany continues to stick to the course of multilateralism and integration.     

Chinese Security in the Post-11 September World: Implications for Asia and the Pacific

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and the Bush administration's policy changes, Chinese strategic specialists are engaged in a wide ranging and increasingly public debate over China's national security strategies and priorities. Although senior leaders continue to argue that most trends remain favorable for Chinese security interests, far more cautionary assessments are also being voiced. In this article, Jonathan D. Pollack, chairman of the Strategic Research Department, US Naval War College, points out that the increased complexity and differentiation in Chinese policymaking reveals multiple trends at work. Even as Chinese policymakers emphasize their keen desire to reinforce regional stability, the longer-term picture remains clouded, from the Taiwan straits to the Korean peninsula to Central Asia to future developments in nuclear weapons policy. Pollack argues that there is a compelling need to invigorate exchanges between senior officials in Beijing, Washington, Tokyo and other major capitals, lest China and other states undertake policies that undermine the prospects for long term regional stability and security.     

Varieties of Joint Decision Making: The Second Federal Reform

Germany recently experienced another federal reform, shortly after a previous modification to the German federal system. Has the second federal reform brought substantial change instead of the gradual change that literature on joint decision making would lead us to expect? This article analyses the reform in three stages: agenda setting, negotiation, and ratification; and suggests that at best the new restrictions upon public debt brought about by the second federal reform can be seen as a substantial change, but only if actors comply with them. Furthermore, this note argues that varieties of joint decision making can be identified in German constitutional policy, as they can in German public policy and EU policies. Patterns of joint decision making vary, depending on agenda setting and negotiations, so that the article argues for a differentiated view of joint decision making, the joint decision trap and exits from the joint decision trap.     

Is Germany Going Bananas? Life Cycle and Cohort Effects on Party Performance in Germany from 1953 to 2049

In the public debate concerning the consequences of demographic change in Germany it is often argued that the rising share of older voters will help the CDU/CSU to consolidate its power. This argumentation only applies if the age effect is assumed to be dominant. However, diverse socialisation backgrounds, captured by the cohort effect, also have to be taken into account. Based on the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (Representative Electoral Statistic, RES) and Population Forecasts, the consequences of demographic shifts for federal elections since 1953 are estimated, as well as for future elections. First, age, cohort and period effects on vote choice for previous elections are calculated by using cohort analysis. Second, these effects are applied to the future age distribution. The results show that the ‘greying’ electorate is expected to favour the CDU/CSU and the FDP, while especially the SPD is likely to suffer electoral losses due to demographic shifts.     

The German solidarity pact: A case study in the politics of the Unified Germany

The political process in the old Federal Republic was distinguished by all‐pervasive negotiations and an orientation towards consensus, as indicated by the concepts of ‘co‐operative federalism’, ‘co‐operative opposition’ and ‘neo‐corporatism’ frequently used to describe relations between the federation and the state governments, between the federal government and opposition, and between the federal government and organised economic interests. Some observers expected German unification to lead to fundamental changes in these traits. This study of the negotiations which took place over a ‘Solidarity Pact’ between September 1992 and March 1993 concludes that, far from the political process of the old Federal Republic having been transformed by unification, its distinguishing traits appear rather to have been reinforced. It argues that, whilst there will be no second Solidarity Pact, cooperation and compromise will remain more pervasive in the politics of the unified Germany than confrontation and polarisation.     

Europe and the German Model: Growing Tension or Symbiosis?

Recent conflicts between the Commission of the European Communities and the German government suggest a growing tension between structures of the German political economy and the agenda of economic liberalisation fostered by European integration. Will mounting conflict ultimately force Germany to choose between its commitment to the integrity of the social market economy and support for European economic integration? This article considers the cases of Germany's public sector banks and the German postal service. Both entail potential conflict between the public service functions integral to the social market economy and the competition central to Europe's single market. Examination of these cases suggests that, rather than forcing change on a reluctant Germany and jeopardising the core of the social market economy (SME), enforcement of European competition policy from Brussels has taken place in fundamental symbiosis with the SME. Nonetheless, tensions between federal government and Länder indicate that a positive-sum relationship between Europe's single market and Germany's social market economy may be constrained by German federalism.     

Asians for Australia's identity

Australia is now pursuing the task of discovering and creating its own identity, says Keiko Morita, lecturer at the Institute for International Studies, University of Technology, Sydney. Following remarks made by Pauline Hanson during the 1996 federal election, the issue of Asian immigration has been the subject of significant public debate in Australia. Morita argues that the uproar provoked by Hanson's blatant exploitation of racist hostilities has made it pertinent to raise the question of how Australian feelings toward Asian immigrants have changed over the last thirty years.     

从“北溪-2”项目看德俄关系及俄美欧三方博弈

作为两个重要的地区大国,德国与俄罗斯的关系对彼此和欧洲都有着重要影响。在双边关系中,能源因素因其对国民经济生产的决定性意义长期发挥着“稳定器”的作用。2018年9月,由德俄牵头,法国、奥地利与荷兰合资建造的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目正式动工铺设。该项目将使输往欧洲的俄罗斯天然气绕开乌克兰,经过波罗的海海底直接连通德俄两国,德国由此成为俄罗斯天然气最重要的转运国。此举虽然在双边层面上保证了德俄的能源经济安全,但在多边层面却招致欧盟、美国等多方反对。因担心会进一步加深对俄罗斯能源的依赖,欧盟委员会及中东欧国家欲诉诸法律对该项目施以约束;美国在制裁项目企业的同时转而向波兰、乌克兰等国出口液化天然气,在利用政治机遇抢占欧洲市场的同时试图制衡俄罗斯的影响力。在多方力量博弈中,德国需要在平衡俄美欧关系中付出更多努力。     

Lessons Learned? German Security Policy and the War in Afghanistan

The mission in Afghanistan revealed fundamental shortcomings, inconsistencies and contradictions of core elements of German security policy. In an effort to contribute to the debate about the factors that account for the idiosyncrasies of German security policy, the purpose of this study is to assess how far Germany learned lessons from its policy failures in Afghanistan. The study introduces a typology of learning, which is mainly based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF); delineates the German security policy belief system; and explores two prominent cases of policy failure: the deployment of the Bundeswehr and leadership of the international police training mission. Utilising different sources of data, the study confirms assumptions of the ACF about the stability of core beliefs and shows that the lack of precise policy objectives was a significant barrier to learning. Instead of clarifying Germany's strategic viewpoint, Afghanistan has further enhanced its disorientation in security policy.     

Anti-Americanism and Public Attitudes toward Transatlantic Trade

The recent debate about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has triggered widespread opposition to the trade agreement in Germany. It is not clear, however, what factors drive public attitudes toward transatlantic trade. This article explores the role of anti-Americanism in predicting attitudes toward TTIP among the German public. It argues that the impact of anti-Americanism depends on the extent to which political elites frame the TTIP proposal as a basic conflict between American and European values. Using data from two national representative surveys, it is found that attitudes toward America strongly predict support for the TTIP agreement. The results further demonstrate that the effect of national resentment is moderated by issue awareness, with citizens with a strong anti-American sentiment being significantly more likely to oppose the agreement if they follow the elite debate more closely. Taken together, the results suggest that national resentments are more important for the explanation of TTIP preferences than traditional factors such as partisanship, ideology and material concerns.     

The Politics of Security and Technology in Switzerland

Technologies play crucial roles in security politics. In a recent push to understand the dynamic interplay between technologies and politics, IR scholars increasingly draw on reflexive research traditions. The aim is to understand the social and political practices that influence the shape, design and use of security technologies instead of assuming that technologies have linear, independent effects on politics. This SPSR debate draws on this new perspective and applies it to topics salient in Swiss public debate. Its contributions analyze how cybersecurity, predictive policing, drones, artificial intelligence, targeted sanctions, urban design and spyware are deliberated, negotiated, programmed and critiqued in Switzerland. They chart different analytical avenues with which to address the recursive and non‐linear relationship between security politics and technologies, and, by familiarizing readers with the tenets and diversity of reflexive political science research, seek to give that longstanding scholarly research tradition better visibility in the Swiss political science community.     

End of Consensus? The European Leadership Discourse of the Second Merkel Government during the Eurozone Crisis and Its Contestation in Debates of the Bundestag (2009−13)

This article investigates the political discourse on the resolution of the Eurozone of the second Merkel government and its political contestation in plenary debates of the Bundestag. The empirical part demonstrates the high relevance of normative arguments in the debate, both for the case made by the government parties for a Stability Union and related concepts of austerity and economic reform, and for the competing discourse by the opposition parties for investment and debt mutualisation in the Eurozone. Moreover, the analysis reveals that a strong value- and identity-based commitment to European integration continues to be supported by all political parties in the Bundestag. To conclude, the final section discusses party political and institutional factors to explain why the political contestation of the European leadership by the Merkel government in the Bundestag played only a very limited role at the federal election in September 2013.     

The first six länder elections of 1999: Initial electoral consequences and political fallout of the Neue Mitte in action

This article examines the six regional elections that took place in Germany between February and September 1999 (in Hesse, Bremen, Brandenburg, Saarland, Thuringia and Saxony respectively) to illustrate the different contexts conditioning Gerhard Schröder's political problems and the initial performance of his SPD‐Green federal coalition. The conclusion suggests that Schroder may have been temporarily blown off course by the regional electoral losses in 1999, but it is far too soon to write off his chances of winning a second term in office in 2002. In particular, he has every chance of success if he can develop a credible and common language of modernisation which he then effectively ‘connects’ with the overall acceptance of the need for socio‐economic change amongst the German people.     

Gerechtigkeit zwischen den Generationen

The concept of intergenerational justice has become ever more prevalent in discussions about welfare reform in Germany. For this reason, we analyse problems of justice between generations using the terminology of philosophical theories of justice. We argue that transfers by the welfare state and transfers by the family must be distinguished in the analysis of material and immaterial transfers between generations. As our empirical results show, problems of justice between generations arise mainly in the case of welfare state transfers. Subsequently, we describe the paradigms of intergenerational justice informing the public debate. Data from surveys over the past fifteen years show to what extend these (public) paradigms are shared by individuals in the German population.     

The Spring 2011 Landtag Elections: Regional Specificities or National Electoral Dynamics?

The year 2011 is a Superwahljahr in Germany, with five states (Hamburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Bremen) holding Land-level elections in the spring and two more (Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania) following in the autumn. The debate on the ‘second-order’ nature of Land elections – whether they are to be understood by their own regionally specific dynamics or whether they primarily serve as a proxy for national electoral trends – provides the frame for this election report and its discussion of campaigns, election results and coalition outcomes. These elections could perhaps best be described as ‘one-and-a-half-order’ elections: in some of these elections there was evidence of national electoral trends and national political issues, and voters undoubtedly rendered something of a judgement on the federal coalition government. Nevertheless, election and coalition outcomes probably had more to do with the specific political conditions prevailing in each of these states than with any overarching national dynamic.     

The PDS in Western Germany: An Empirical Study of PDS Local Politicians

Even though its leadership continues to insist that the PDS is a national party of the left, it is de facto an eastern German regional party. In the last several years, however, the PDS has found some measure of success at the local level in western Germany, where it now claims over 100 seats in local parliaments. Emboldened by this success, party leaders have suggested that the PDS-West is gradually 'putting down roots' in the old states of Germany, thus increasing the party's electoral chances there. This article, based on an empirical study carried out from September 2000 to March 2001, looks at the experiences of the PDS at the local level in western Germany. It finds that although many of the problems identified by scholars as standing in the way of PDS electoral success in the West are very much in evidence at the local level as well, the party has nevertheless made enormous strides in gaining political expertise, developing partnerships with local groups, and, in general, becoming more attractive to voters. Whether the PDS can translate these positive experiences above and beyond the local level remains open to debate. Nevertheless the opportunity is there.     

Bringing the Citizen Back In: Democratic Dimensions of Local Reforms in Germany and Japan

Since the 1990s, local governments in many countries have responded to the crisis of public finances, legitimacy, and a low level of performance with a combination of territorial and functional reforms, and the introduction of management and political reforms. This article focuses on the latter by analyzing new modes of citizen participation in Germany and Japan. It will employ theoretical assumptions from the local governance debate in order to explore the democratic dimensions of local government reforms. The question considered is concerned with the political context for new modes of participation and whether they can offer opportunities for an improvement of local democracy in terms of an increase in legitimacy and political capacity building for citizens. The conclusion will be reached that while we would expect more favorable preconditions in Germany with regard to a positive impact on local democracy, the opposite is the case: a relatively weak tradition of local autonomy and low resources of civil society actors in Japan explains their focus on co-production of services with local governments but at the same time offers greater opportunities for an improvement in local democracy.     

Globalisation, Security and International Order After 11 September

This article advances the discussion of the contentious question of links between global inequalities of power and violent responses, focussing on globalisation and non-inclusive forms of governance. Drawing on international political economy, the article criticises the "nationstate-centrism" in much political discourse, suggesting that both authority and security need to be reconsidered — to account for less plausible national borders and controls. It suggests that "human security" (including issues of development and equality) ought to replace "national security" as the primary focus of public policy. It draws attention to the intractability of difference, insisting that the terrorism of 2001 has complex transnational antecedents. Realist approaches to international order have become part of a problem to be overcome through further intellectual debate.