Sports Cars,Sleaze and Gamma Rays: Rhineland-Palatinate Elects its First Red-Green Government

The 2011 election in Rhineland-Palatinate was a political earthquake: Following a string of political scandals, the SPD lost almost ten percentage points of their support, while the CDU could hardly improve on their disastrous 2006 result. The FDP is no longer represented in the state parliament. The Greens more than tripled their last result, allowing them to enter a coalition with the SPD for the first time.

Analyses at the municipal level show that the party improved most in their urban strongholds while still showing a (relatively) weak performance in rural areas. This will make it difficult to sustain the momentum of their victory. Moreover, the SPD is battered and bruised and needs to select a new leader, but veteran minister president Kurt Beck shows no inclination to step down. This does not bode well for a coalition that needs to organise the state's fiscal consolidation and structural transformation.     

The 2009 Landtag Election in Saxony

The Landtag election in Saxony was one of three elections for state parliaments, all taking place on 30 August 2009. Out of the three, it was the one where there was little doubt that the CDU would, once again, appoint the next Prime Minister. Aside from the lack of surprise in the election outcome, this election had some historic moments. After the right-wing NPD was able to re-enter the Saxon Landtag, Saxony is the only German state parliament with six party parliamentary groups present. Further, turnout at this election was 52 per cent, an all-time low. The election ended Saxony's grand coalition and established its first CDU–FDP coalition. Within two weeks after the election, the new coalition contract was negotiated and the new government was sworn in so as to present a clear signal to national voters that a black and yellow coalition was a good and workable alternative to the grand coalition in the German Bundestag as well.     

Religion,the churches,and the German ‘revolution’ of November 1989

The state election of 2006 in Rheinland-Pfalz resulted in a (bare) majority of seats for the SPD, which allows the party to govern alone for the first time in the history of the state. The CDU, on the other hand, received slightly less than one-third of the vote, an all-time low in its former stronghold. This result was by and large determined by factors at the state level. Yet it had a considerable impact at the federal level: it signalled the end of a string of devastating losses for the SPD, enhanced the standing of minister president Kurt Beck (now the SPD's chairman), and brought to an end the last coalition between the SPD and the FDP. These repercussions notwithstanding, there is no evidence of a durable voter realignment benefiting the SPD, since the party's victory was apparently due to short- and mid-term factors. Therefore, the outcome of the next election (scheduled for 2011) is by no means a foregone conclusion.     

The Land Election in Brandenburg 2009

This election report presents condensed information on the election campaign, the results and the coalition formation of the 2009 Land election in Brandenburg. The SPD with its hugely popular Prime Minister Matthias Platzeck emerged as strongest party, leaving the Left Party in second and the CDU in third place. The stark difference between the CDU's and SPD's result in the Land election and the national election that was held on the same day underlines that Brandenburg is still both a stronghold of the SPD and a wasteland for the CDU. Coalition negotiations led to a – for many surprising – end of the ten year long SPD/CDU coalition and to the formation of the first ‘red–red’ government between SPD and Left Party in Brandenburg. Accompanied by heated debates about the Left Party's past and the position of the SPD towards it, Matthias Platzeck was re-elected as Prime Minister of Brandenburg.     

Small parties in the new bundesländer: Bündnis 90/die grünen in brandenburg

This article considers party system development in the eastern Länder looking at the fate of the small parties that have seen their aggregate share of the vote dwindle at successive state elections to the extent that the eastern states display a three‐party system comprising the CDU, the SPD and the PDS. Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and the FDP are notable casualties, since they are now extra‐parliamentary parties, having previously enjoyed the status of coalition partners. Bundnis 90/Die Grünen in the Land of Brandenburg is singled out for detailed analysis as a representative of this fate. Paradoxically, the fact that Biindnis 90 had been successful in the 1990 Landtag elections contributed to its downfall in 1994. This position of power meant that there was no incentive for key members to meet compromises and merge with the Greens. The resulting split in the party following an exceedingly acrimonious merger process did not help the party's chances at the next Landtag elections.     

The Zero-sum Game of Governing Together? Effects of Merkel's Grand Coalition on the Results of the 2009 German Federal Election

Grand coalitions are highly debated in Germany, where large parts of the media and the political world expect negative effects of grand coalitions on parliamentary party systems. This did not happen either with Merkel's grand coalition resulting from the 2005 election or with other grand coalitions in the German Länder. On the contrary, only the SPD suffered heavy losses in 2009. Most experts agree that those losses were caused by the SPD's participation in the grand coalition. Still, it remains largely unclear how Merkel's grand coalition affected the 2009 federal election. To close that gap, this paper thoroughly analyses the effects of Merkel's grand coalition by looking at a crucial but mostly neglected factor in that regard, the evaluation of the grand coalition by voters. It can be shown that the CDU/CSU was mostly unaffected whereas the SPD suffered from being perceived as the less influential party in Merkel's grand coalition.     

The 2009 Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: Polarised Electoral Campaign,Exceptional Election Results,and an Unspectacular Process of Government Formation

The elections for the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag were held on 27 September 2009. After conflicts between the governing parties the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), Prime Minister Carstensen had ended the ‘grand coalition’ and called for early elections, one year earlier than scheduled. The electoral campaign centred on the divide between the Christian Democrats who favoured a coalition with the Liberals, and the Social Democrats who competed for a majority together with the Greens. The elections resulted in large shifts in party strength. Christian and Social Democrats together lost about 22 percentage points of votes, while most of the smaller parliamentary parties attained their best election results in Schleswig-Holstein state elections ever. CDU and FDP gained a majority of seats and formed a coalition that re-elected Carstensen into office on 27 October. Using concepts from coalition theory, our analysis shows that a Christian–Liberal coalition was indeed the most likely outcome of the government formation process.     

The Berlin Land Election 2006

This article examines the 2006 Berlin Land election, including the election campaigns of the main parties, the results, and the process of post-election coalition formation. While few doubted that the Social Democratic Party (SPD) would emerge as the largest party, and that the highly popular Klaus Wowereit would continue as Berlin's governing mayor; the big questions were what coalition he would lead and whether Berliners would vote for a continuation of the (initially controversial) red–red coalition comprising the SPD and the Left Party. Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS).     

A Third Term for a Popular Chancellor: An Analysis of Voting Behaviour in the 2013 German Federal Election

The 2013 federal election led to a considerable change in the German party system. Yet Chancellor Merkel secured a third term, once again, as chancellor of a grand coalition. This analysis shows that Angela Merkel was much more popular than her SPD challenger, Peer Steinbrück. Moreover, she was perceived as somewhat more representative of the values and policies of the party she stood for than her competitor. What is more, the candidates' perceived representativeness conditioned the impact of candidate preferences on vote choice in complex ways. As a result, support for Angela Merkel was likely to translate into votes for the CDU/CSU, whereas support for Peer Steinbrück did not easily earn SPD votes. The article thus concludes that, in contrast to her challenger, Angela Merkel was an electoral asset for her party. The CDU/CSU's impressive result in the 2013 federal outcome can thus be interpreted, to some extent, as reflecting its leader's popularity.     

‘Sowing the Seeds of Love’? Determinants of Local Coalition Formation and Termination between the CDU and the Greens, 1994–2016

Drawing on empirical evidence from 11 CDU–Green coalitions in large German municipalities, this article investigates the determinants of formation and termination of black–green minimal winning coalitions. Such coalitions are likely to be formed if the mayor is a party member of either the CDU or the Greens, if one of the two parties dominates the local party system, and if the SPD suffers from severe vote losses. Furthermore, the results indicate that CDU–Green coalitions are primarily formed if neither the CDU nor the Greens have gained a parliamentary majority with their ‘usual’ coalition partners. Ideological connectivity, however, does not play a major role. Regarding coalition stability, Christian Democrats and Greens are able to govern successfully for an entire legislative term in most of the cases. If a coalition is terminated early, however, this is due to a party breaking the coalition agreement by voting on specific policies together with the SPD in the local council.     

The 1996 länder elections in Baden‐Württemberg,Rhineland‐Palatinate and Schleswig‐Holstein: The ebbing of the tides of March?

This article analyses the three state elections of March 1996 in Baden‐Württemberg, Rhineland‐Palatinate and Schleswig‐Holstein in the context of both the political history and traditions of each Land in turn as well as the national political context in which they took place. These elections served to strengthen the hand of the Bonn coalition of the CDU–CSU and FDP, eliminating in the process the risk to its slim majority in the Bundestag. The most immediate and fundamental questions arising from these three election results concern the SPD. The main problem for the party is the lack of a credible strategy based on a clear sense of what the SPD stands for today.     

SPD and PDS relationships

This article examines the mutual relationship of SPD and PDS. In the past, the relationship between Communists and Social Democrats has been tense, even if the 1970s and 1980s saw a slight improvement. After the collapse of the GDR and the onset of German unity ‐ the SED had meanwhile become the PDS ‐ a coalition between the two parties was unthinkable. The SPD at least was strictly opposed to it. Even at the eve of the 1998 federal elections, nobody seriously considers a coalition at national level but some forces in the SPD have begun to advocate coalitions with the PDS at regional level in the new Lander. This strategy enjoys the backing of the PDS. It is argued that for the SPD to choose this ‘French way’ of ousting the CDU from government is a serious error, both with regard to the functioning of democracy and to SPD strategy.     

Party system change in east Germany

This article examines the development of the east German party system from the peaceful revolution in the former GDR to the aftermath of the 1994 federal election. It takes into account its format, polarisation, fragmentation, asymmetry, volatility, legitimacy, segmentation and government durability. The analysis shows that there was not only a complete transformation of the former GDR's party system between autumn 1989 and autumn 1990 but also a general change of the east German party system between 1990 and 1994. Both at the federal and at the Land level, the high volatility resulted in a considerably less fragmented system with a parliamentary format reduced to three parties: the CDU, SPD and PDS. The change in the electoral dimension also led to an increase in segmentation and to government instability at the Land level and coincided with a decrease of legitimacy. Reasons for the party system change are to be be found in developments at the macro‐level, that is, the institutional framework party competition is subject to, at the micro‐level, that is the cleavage structure and issue structure of east German society, and at the meso‐level, that is the resources and political behaviour of the relevant parties.     

The 2008 Hamburg Bürgerschaftswahl: Birth of a New Coalition Formula

The Hamburg city council election (Bürgerschaftswahl) of 24 February 2008 took place against the background of conflicts within the SPD over its approach toward the Left Party following an inconclusive state election in Hessen in January. The SPD's internal turbulence stems from the breakthrough of the Left Party among electorates in western states, rendering post-election government formation more complex than ever before. The entrance of the Left Party into the Hamburg city council led to the creation of a CDU–Green coalition, the very first time such a Land government has been formed. This report provides an overview on public opinion regarding campaign issues and voting preferences, followed by discussions about the formation and possible implications of the first state-level ‘black–Green’ coalition.     

Party Competition and Government Formation in Germany: Business as Usual or New Patterns?

The process of coalition formation following the 2017 Bundestag election was the most difficult in German post-war history. For the first time, Germany saw negotiations fail, a minority government being discussed as a real possibility, and the federal president involved as formateur in coalition politics. The aim of this contribution is to explain why government formation was so intricate after the 2017 election. To this end, we trace patterns of party politics and the development of the German party system since 2013. We then study general patterns of government formation at the regional and national levels since the 1990s and evaluate whether these have changed with the advent of the right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany. Our analysis of the 2017–2018 government formation is based on a novel expert survey of the policy profiles of German parties on various issue dimensions, conducted in 2017. The results show that the continuation of the incumbent coalition government of Christian and Social Democrats was the most likely outcome, and that the Social Democrats were indeed able to enforce a surpassing share of their policy positions in the final negotiation rounds.     

THE CENTRALIZATION AND FRAGMENTATION OF SOUTH AFRICA'S DOMINANT PARTY SYSTEM

South Africa's first democratic election of 1994 provided thebasis for the African National Congress (ANC) to replace theformerly ruling National Party (NP) as the country's dominantparty. The new dominance was initially established by the ANC'smajority position within the postelection coalition Governmentof National Unity. Since the election, however, the ANC's dominancehas begun to be extended by a centralization of control exercisedthrough the machinery of state, notably through four processes:the rewriting of the transitional interim constitution and thepromulgation of a new constitution which, inter alia, abolishesthe necessity for coalition government after the next election;the attempted containment of autonomy of the ANC's structureswhich have been established at the level of the new provinces;the exercise of party discipline within parliament and somecurtailment of the government's accountability to parliament;and, fourthly, the imposition of administrative and financialdiscipline upon the provinces. These processes have taken placewithin a context of a fragmentation and fissure of Oppositionparty forces, which in the immediate future will only furtherenhance the ANC's dominance, despite some indication that thatparty is itself faced by a declining level of popular support.     

The 1999 Berlin land election

The Berlin election of 1999 resulted in the continuation of the city's Grand Coalition with the veteran CDU leader, Eberhard Diepgen, at the helm, and confirmed the PDS as the strongest party in East Berlin. This article examines the election campaign in Berlin and considers the key factors which determined the outcome. It also considers whether or not the ‘wall in the ballot box’, a political manifestation of the infamous ‘wall in the mind’, still exists over nine years after German reunification. The author argues that the unique history, demography and social make‐up of Berlin, coupled with the prevailing political mood throughout the Federal Republic, made another grand coalition inevitable. She demonstrates that, judging by voting behaviour, ‘inner unity’ remains elusive in Germany's new capital.     

Grand Coalition and Multi-Party Competition: Explaining Slowing Reforms in Gender Policy in Germany (2009–13)

Since 2005, the Christian Democrats (CDU) modernised family and labour market policy by supporting gender equality. Recent explanations trace this back to their competition with the Social Democrats (SPD) for female voters. What is missing from these accounts is a discussion of coalition dynamics. We argue that the drive for modernisation faltered under Angela Merkel's second term for three reasons: (1) coalitional dynamics in the new Conservative–Liberal coalition; (2) the traditionalist CSU wanted to distinguish itself from the moderate impulses of the CDU; and (3) the CDU reacted by moving away from its former ‘social democratisation’. As a result, gender equality policies in the family and labour market slowed and developed increasing inconsistency by indicating not only openness for modern but also emphasising conservative ideas. Despite the inherent contradictions this appealed to many different voters and contributed to a substantial victory for the CDU in the federal election of 2013.     

The Kingmaker is Dead,Long Live the Kingmaker: Examining the Degree of Influence of Small Parties in the Coalition-formation Process in Germany

This article examines the role of small parties in the German party system. It thus attempts to make a contribution to a largely under-researched topic in the existing literature. The goal is to determine the influence and ultimately the pivotal role of small parties over time both federally and in each Land (1949–2010). For that purpose we develop a five-point ‘opportunity structure’ scale. During the heyday of West Germany's two-and-a-half-party system (from the early 1960s to the early 1980s) the FDP was not just the main small party but the pivotal kingmaker at least federally, deciding which of the major parties (CDU/CSU or SPD) would be in government. Since then the Greens and later the PDS/die Linke have also become durable small parties and play an important role in the government formation process. The analysis shows that based on our measure the Greens have at least equalled if not surpassed the FDP as the country's most influential small party since they emerged on the political scene in the early 1980s.     

How and Why Parties Respond to Membership Decline: The Case of the SPD and the CDU

A dominant assumption in the existing literature on party organisation in Western Europe holds that parties acquiesce in membership decline because modern campaigning is capital- rather than labour-intensive. This article studies eight reform attempts, from 1989 to 2011, by two paradigmatic membership parties, the German SPD and CDU. The examined party documents show that the two parties still value and seek mass membership. Indeed, most of the proposed reforms are not attempts at organisational innovation, but have the intention of consolidating the existing membership organisations. Surprisingly, the parties are concerned about membership decline not mainly for electoral reasons, but because they value and wish to preserve their legacy as membership organisations. Secondly, both the SPD and the CDU documents suggest that the legal-normative imperative of the German Basic Law requiring parties to sustain democratic linkage necessitates a membership organisation. Furthermore, the SPD views mass membership as inherent to social democratic ideology.