The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

ABSTRACT

The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.     

Thinking Globally and Acting Locally

The literature of negotiation and conflict resolution continues to build on and move away from traditional emphases on transactions and decision making. Topics such as the impact of culture on negotiation once aroused debate but are no longer even controversial. Enough scholars in our large and multidisciplinary field have benefited from the insights of complementary social sciences so that few serious scholars or practitioners doubt that identity and culture are dynamic factors affecting negotiations. Some have moved beyond the quest for distributional efficiency that characterized so much early research and now advocate nothing less than social transformation and empowerment through conflict resolution methodologies. Several recent contributions to the negotiation literature—Negotiating Globally, and Reaching for Higher Ground in Conflict Resolution—are evidence that literature in the field is pushing new frontiers.Anthony Wanis-St. John: His courses include Cross-Cultural Negotiation and the Palestinian-Israeli Peace Process. He was a PON doctoral fellow 1999-2001. He is a practicing mediator and facilitator.     

The Social Construction of Identity: Israeli Foreign Policy and the 2006 War in Lebanon

This article uses a constructivist analysis to consider the social construction of identity and the Israeli military action in Lebanon in 2006. Strands of meaning, constructive of a collective sense of self, emerged out of historical continuities, interacted and were made meaningful in relation to each other around the issue of the Hezbollah threat in 2006. They framed, contextualised and constituted that policy issue to form a situated and contingent identity of the possible, within which the policy decisions that produced the second Lebanon War were taken. Whilst a body of work has resulted from engagement with this conflict, and a well established literature discusses Israeli identity, little has been done to bring the two together and consider in detail the role of identity in constructing the 2006 war as possible and desirable for Israel. This is the focus and contribution of this article. Domestically, the institutional context of the 2006 Knesset elections revealed a national identity in which the multi-faceted vulnerability identity and Fighting Jew identity were salient, interacting strands. The narratives of ordeal, existential threat, and self-reliance acted to increase the power of the Fighting Jew identity, predicated on a faith in military solutions to threats. These ideas came up against and were rearticulated in the context of the global “War on Terror” to make the war in 2006 both possible and desirable.     

Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008

This article examines the role of economic inequality in influencing the risk of armed conflict between communal groups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that socioeconomic inequality can generate intergroup grievances, which, due to the exclusionary legitimacy of the African state and elite incentives to engage in competitive mobilization of communal groups, precipitate violent communal conflict. To examine this argument, we rely on a series of household surveys to construct subnational inequality measures. For each region, we calculate measures of inequality in terms of household welfare and education between individuals (vertical inequality) and between ethnic groups (horizontal inequality). Combining the inequality data with new georeferenced data on communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1990–2008, we find that regions with strong socioeconomic inequalities—both vertical and horizontal—are significantly more exposed to violent communal conflicts. More specifically, regions in which the largest ethnic group is severely disadvantaged compared to other groups are particularly prone to experience communal conflict.     

Normative power Europe and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: the EU’s peacebuilding narrative meets local narratives

ABSTRACT

This article conceives the EU’s normative power in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a narrative that projects views of the international system, the EU’s identity as a peacebuilder, and its positions on specific conflict issues. Highlighting the importance of local narratives as cultural filters, this article argues that a high degree of alignment of local narratives with key elements of the EU’s normative power narrative facilitates positive images of the EU as a normative power in peacebuilding, whilst diverging local narratives tend to give rise to more critical views. Yet, the case of Palestine also shows that strong narrative alignment with the EU may encourage high expectations, resulting in critical views about inconsistencies between the EU’s normative aspirations and its actual foreign policy conduct.     

Struggles over Identity and Territory: Regional Identities in Ethnoreligious Conflict in Northern Nigeria

This article explores how ethnoreligious conflict over boundaries and territoriality involves a politics of scale, that is, how positions and demands are framed by actors according to, for instance, local, regional, and national scales. The analysis focuses on how Muslim actors in a conflict in Kaduna State in Nigeria frame a regional, northern Nigerian identity that varies in content and form depending on the scalar context in which communal conflict is placed with regional and national politics yielding different identifications.     

A Long War in the East: Doctrine,Diplomacy, and the Prospects for a Protracted Sino-American Conflict

Increasing diplomatic tension between China and the United States has led to concerns about military conflict, possibly including rapid nuclear escalation. Scholars have spent less time considering the opposite scenario: protracted conventional war. This analysis explains why a combination of politics, geography, and technology may conspire to produce such a war, despite the fact that both sides are planning for a short, high-intensity fight. It shows how the Peloponnesian War, an ancient conflict fought with ancient weapons, nonetheless provides a warning of what might happen in the present. It also describes a grim trade off that American policy-makers will face in the event of war. Washington can take steps to reduce the chance of nuclear escalation, but in so doing will make a long war more likely. The conclusion describes the diplomatic challenge of war termination in a protracted conflict where neither side can compel the other to back down.     

Forgiveness and Reconciliation: The Religious Dimension

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on “forgiveness” as one of the most conspicuous expressions of the growing role of religion in conflict transformation. The main questions put forward are the following: What is the role of forgiveness in reconciliation? Is forgiveness a necessary condition for reconciliation between former enemies? Is it sufficient for bringing about real and stable peace between them? To what extent and how does religion affect the reconciliation via forgiveness process?

This paper distinguishes between material conflicts, which evolve around material and dividable assets, and identity conflicts, which involve deep-seated hatred originating in the feeling of at least one of the sides that the other has usurped their legitimate rights. While material conflicts can be brought to an end through traditional conflict resolution techniques, identity conflicts need “track two” diplomacy strategies, and particularly forgiveness in order to reach reconciliation. Forgiveness, basically a religious concept, is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for bringing about reconciliation in identity conflicts. To the extent that the sides to the conflict share similar religious convictions regarding the centrality and nature of forgiveness, religion will contribute to reconciliation. But if the contenders hold different (let alone conflicting) tenets regarding forgiveness, religion may hamper the reconciliation process.

A quick glance at the three monotheistic religions shows significant differences in their approaches toward forgiveness. While Judaism, and to some extent Islam, see repentance as a sine qua non for forgiveness, Christianity highlights mercy and love and teaches its believers to ask and grant forgiveness without preconditions. These differences may widen the gap between the parties to an identity conflict that wish to resolve their conflict and ultimately reach full and genuine reconciliation. The arguments put forward in this paper need to be put to the test in historic and actual cases of identity conflicts. The Israeli–Palestinian conflict could serve as a suitable example for such a test.     

Substitutability,securitisation and hydro-hegemony: ontological and strategic sequencing in shared river relations

When a river passes through multiple states, to what extent are those states able to co-operate over or come into conflict over that shared water source? To address this question, I build on previous literature that emphasised benefit sharing, securitisation narratives and basin-level hydro-hegemony to advance an ontologically and strategically sequential framework for understanding shared river relations. I apply that framework to explain the changes in the hydro-political relationship between Turkey and Syria with regard to the Euphrates River. From 1980 to 1998, the policy-makers in both states saw use of the Euphrates as helping the government achieve high priority political goals and perceived full usage of that water to be the only means of doing so. Therefore, they both securitised the issue of Euphrates water usage to a significant degree. This mutual securitisation drove the two states toward greater conflict. After 2000, each state found substitute means for those same goals and so reduced its securitisation of Euphrates water usage. This reduced securitisation facilitated greater co-operation between them.     

DDR and transitional justice: bridging the divide?

This article explores the complex relationship between disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of ex-combatants (DDR) and transitional justice. While both DDR and transitional justice often operate simultaneously, neither process has traditionally been designed with the other in mind. In fact, they are often in tension or competition, pursuing competing demands and potentially drawing on the same scarce donor pools. While scholars and practitioners of transitional justice have become somewhat attuned to the presence of DDR processes in countries emerging from conflict, and the challenges and opportunities they present for transitional justice, we observe that by comparison, it is only fairly recently that DDR policies, if not programmes, have begun to take account of the demands and practice of transitional justice. We argue that while the activities of DDR and transitional justice may often be in tension, in some instances they might be designed to operate in a more complementary fashion. However, for this to even be conceivable, it is essential that scholars and practitioners of each seek to understand the work of the other better.     

Coercion in Rebel Recruitment

Previous research on rebel recruitment has focused on the economic and social incentives groups used as enticements but has overlooked the question of why many armed groups recruit using coercion. The puzzle is why coercion occurs despite its alienating civilian populations and being costly in terms of organizational and military effectiveness. I suggest that recruitment is a dynamic process and that groups are likely to shift recruitment strategies depending on the exigencies of the conflict. In particular, the exposure of the group to military and economic shocks accompanied by shortened time horizons should lead to increasingly coercive recruitment. Whether forced recruitment is a durable solution for a group in the long run is likely to be contingent upon the group's ability to induce a high level of compliance from the individual at a low cost. Further, in order to circumvent costs vis-à-vis the civilian population, the group must be able to restrict defection to the government and the out-migration of the civilian population. Three narratives from Nepal, Ethiopia, and Sierra Leone are provided both to illustrate the arguments and to probe the scope conditions. The article concludes that understanding why and when rebel groups use forced recruitment has vital security implications for the countries in which armed conflict takes place.     

Narratives of the EU in Israel/Palestine: narrative “stickiness” and the formation of expectations

ABSTRACT

Analysis of narrative can help identify the expectations actors hold about each other in international relations. This article triangulates a mix of elite interviews, media content analysis and an original Q-sort public opinion methodology to map the presence of narratives about EU relations among young Israelis and Palestinians. Our aim is not to explain the effects of EU public diplomacy in these countries. Instead we aim to identify the narrative “terrain” or conditions that the EU communicates to and with and, drawing on feminist and everyday narrative studies, to examine the role of affect and identity to explain why some narratives are more “sticky” than others in those societies. We find, first, a broad recognition that the EU’s capacity to act in international relations is necessary but limited in the face of greater challenges in the international system, and indeed, within the EU itself. We find, second, little evidence that young people radically reshape the narratives they encounter in their public spheres, but nevertheless some important divisions emerge that pose problems for how EU policymakers can communicate consistently without dismaying some citizens in third countries.     

‘What are all the soldiers going to do?’ demobilisation,reintegration and employment in Rwanda

Western donors are heavily engaged in Rwanda's Demobilisation and Reintegration Programme for former combatants. This engagement reflects the commitment of the donors to implement a new post‐conflict agenda in a very difficult situation. When this agenda goes beyond mere economic development, we argue that donors should not drift too far away from their first task: combating poverty. More often than not, development and security are two sides of one coin. Addressing one side without considering the other is bad practice. Demobilisation is really a topic that has both a developmental as well as a security aspect. Donors, as well as the Rwandan government, focus too narrowly on the security or military aspect of demobilisation. This reflects the status of the Rwandan government. It is very focussed on its own security to the detriment of other elements. We argue that these other elements, access to jobs and education, equity and broad based development should be dealt with as a matter of priority. If not, they will once more undermine security. Given the enormous amount of money invested in the demobilisation programme, donors should do much more to use their monitoring capacities to their full potential.     

Flesh and steel: antithetical figures in the war on terrorism

The ongoing conflict in the war on terrorism puts two emblematic modes of violence into sharp relief: the drone, as an ostensibly rational, clinical and measured weapon of war, and suicide bombings, frequently portrayed as the horrid deeds of fanatics. In this article, I seek to challenge this juxtaposition and instead suggest that both modalities of killing are part of the same technologically-mediated ecology of violence. To do this, I examine the material-semiotic assemblage of the drone and of the suicide bomber, paying attention to the technological production of each mode of violence, as well as the narratives that render each figure intelligible in the war on terrorism. I argue that the strongly divergent narratives found in Western discourse serve as a politically expedient sense–making device, whereby suicide bombing is pathologised, thereby justifying ever more intrusive violent acts with seemingly rational technologies like the drone. Rather than “solving” the problem of terrorism, this creates counter-productive, or iatrogenic, effects, in which technological mediation escalates rather than diminishes cycles of violence. By way of response, I suggest that a better understanding of the relational nature of violence in the war on terrorism might be gained by reading the two not as antithetical figures, but instead as operating in the same technological key.     

Engaging Conflict History and Memory Across the Taiwan Strait: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Conflict Timelines from Interactive Conflict Resolution (ICR) Dialogues

An analysis of twenty pairs of Taiwanese and mainland Chinese timelines of cross-Strait relations demonstrates a highly dynamic way in which the two societies' conflict memories have evolved over two decades. These timelines were developed in the context of twenty weeklong Interactive Conflict Resolution (ICR) dialogues that the author facilitated. A cohort of civil society delegates from both sides of the Strait, each with five persons, participated in each of the dialogues and produced the timelines. A longitudinal content analysis of the timelines reveals that the participants' experiences of cross-Strait relations have continuously altered their mental frames of the conflict. It also reveals distinct patterns of their recollections. These findings challenge the prevailing practices of conflict mapping and analysis that uncritically presume a static nature of conflict parties' goals. Broader implications of the study include the usefulness of action research and applied practice for methodological innovations and theory building.     

The Construction of Power in the Strategic Narratives of the BRICS

Rising powers, collectively joined in informal diplomatic groups such as the BRICS, aim to influence the meaning of the international order by means of “strategic narratives.” Together, the BRICS develop strategic narratives that support their aspiration for a fairer and more democratic multipolar world order and which produce a positive perception of the group. This paper evaluates how BRICS’s system and identity narratives combine geostrategic, economic and solidarity narratives. Narrative tension emerges due to their embeddedness in contradicting power constructions, namely a geostrategic perspective and a multipolar perspective. The synchronisation of these three narratives is undermined when there is a fall in perceived power, economic recession or a lack of accountability and transparency practices. Strategic narrative analysis helps to think about and analyze power in global politics.     

Public Commitment in Crisis Bargaining

The "audience cost" literature argues that highly-resolved leaders can use public threats to credibly signal their resolve in incomplete-information crisis bargaining, thereby overcoming informational asymmetries that lead to war. If democracies are better able to generate audience costs, then audience costs help explain the democratic peace. We use a game-theoretic model to show how public commitments can be used coercively as a source of bargaining leverage, even in a complete-information setting in which they have no signaling role. When both sides use public commitments for bargaining leverage, war becomes an equilibrium outcome. The results provide a rationale for secret negotiations as well as hypotheses about when leaders will claim that the disputed good is indivisible, recognized as a rationalist explanation for war. Claims of indivisibility may just be bargaining tactics to get the other side to make big concessions, and compromise is still possible in equilibrium.     

Doubly Dualistic Dilemma: US strategies towards China and Taiwan

In its relations with Taiwan and China, Washington has begunto implement separate dual strategies in order to simultaneouslydeter unilateral action while balancing out the rival politicaland military forces of each side. A simple standard strategyjust is not sufficient to maintain the status quo. The way tomaintain peace is for Washington to keep its role as a moderatorbetween the two sides while preventing both from taking unilateralsteps toward goals that would naturally provoke the other. USpolicy has to mirror the duality of the cross-strait arena byimplementing dual balancing and deterrent strategies. It isalso imperative that policymakers realize the complexity ofthe situation so as not to unwittingly provoke either side.This paper is an analysis of the emerging US strategy of deterringboth sides of the Taiwan Strait from taking unilateral actionwhile maintaining a balance of military and political forces,and gives some suggestions as to the further development ofthis strategy.     

Religious Relations across the Taiwan Strait: Patterns,Alignments, and Political Effects

This study of Buddhist, Taoist, and Christian relations across the Taiwan Strait elicits three observations: (1) officials on both sides of the Strait are permitting increased cross-Strait religious interaction, but each side has different calculations for doing so; (2) each side uses religion as “soft power” to obtain its political objectives, but these low-key approaches are limited—for different reasons; and (3) even though cross-Strait religious ties are defined by the governments and religious organizations in Taiwan and China in cultural terms, they have significant political implications.     

“Talk about terror in our back gardens”: an analysis of online comments about British foreign fighters in Syria

The phenomenon of foreign fighters has become a central issue to the ongoing conflict in Syria. This article explores how members of the public answer the question ‘Why do British citizens join the conflict in Syria’ on social media sites and in response to online news articles. Building upon research on everyday narratives of security and terrorism, we analyse 807 comments, and in doing so, we argue that online comments are important in producing the discursive environment for making sense of British foreign fighters and what should be done in response to them. We find that there is a tendency to view British foreign fighters as being purely motivated by religion, and there is also a belief that British foreign fighters should be responded to through exceptional measures. We discuss the implications of such perceptions, and we highlight how problematic misconceptions about Islam and Muslims are not just disseminated through elite and media discourse, but through everyday narratives published by members of the public online.