Strategic Demands, Credible Threats, and Economic Coercion Outcomes

The crisis bargaining literature sees demands as endogenous to crises. However, despite the parallels between military and economic coercion, sanctions researchers have preferred to analyze economic coercion after demands have been issued, and have not explored sufficiently the possibility that when senders formulate their policy objectives, they consider the international constraints imposed by the capabilities and interests of target states. I complement the sanctions literature by deriving the implications of strategic goal formulation in a game theoretic model of economic coercion that assumes endogenous demands. The model explains the inconsistent empirical relationship between sanctions costs and outcomes as well as the paradoxical tendency of senders to select into difficult disputes. I find that threats are not always more effective than sanctions and suggest what an optimal sanctions policy might look like.     

"中国经济威胁论"及其国家形象悖论

从经济总量威胁论到贸易、资本威胁论,"中国经济威胁论"愈演愈烈,呈阶段性递进式扩大发展,其发展过程正吻合中国国际经济地位的逐步提升.国家形象随着国家国际地位的变化而发生改变,但是,中国作为一个认知对象仅仅是影响因素之一,而认知者具有自我认知意义的信息选择过程在此发挥的作用至关重要.国际地位变化和国家形象的关系体现为三个悖论,国际地位并不直接决定国家形象认知的方向,中国国际地位的提升不一定必然导致国家形象的负面化,提高中国国际地位与改善中国国家形象存在同时并行的理论可能.     

东亚悖论:经济依存与安全戒备

目前对东亚安全起重要作用的中美日三大国在经济上处于一定程度的依存状态。一般来说,经济依存是政治与安全合作的基础。然而目前美国及其战略伙伴日本却倒行逆施加强对中国的围堵,使得目前东亚的地缘政治竞争反而变得愈加紧张。为什么造成这样的悖论?本文认为,东亚的安全局势受两个结构性因素的影响:一是由相互经济依存带来的国家间合作的要求;二是传统的国际政治结构带来的国家间地缘政治竞争。之所以出现这种受双重结构影响的状态,原因在于经济依存关系没有彻底克服传统的国际政治结构性影响,是不平衡与综合发展规律的作用。不平衡与综合发展规律使得各国融入全球经济的程度不同,各国彼此之间在经济上相互依存程度不同,不同的国家在经济全球化进程中所发挥的作用不同。这三者在国际政治中产生的结果是,地缘政治的竞争仍在一定程度上在一些国家间发挥着结构性作用。这样,在这种双重结构性因素共同的作用下,东亚安全局势处于一种悖论状态。     

Coercion and the Global Spread of Securities Regulation

Securities laws, overseen by independent regulatory agencies, have spread around the world. This article argues that coercion has played a more critical role in the spread of regulatory models than previously acknowledged. In particular, I argue that globally integrated markets can provide powerful regulators and governments with strong incentives to actively promote the export of their regulatory models. Case study evidence and the analysis of a global data set on the establishment of US-style securities regulatory regimes between 1973 and 2007 lend support to the crucial role of the US government and the US Securities and Exchange Commission in spreading the US securities regulatory model around the world.     

The Balance Between Coercion and Accommodation

1. Introduction
On the morning of April 1st, 2001, a U.S. EP-3 surveillance aircraft was conducting an intelligence flight along the Chinese territorial border in the airspace south-east of China＇s Hainan Island. Two Chinese fighter jets intercepted the spy plane and followed its flight, as is considered ordinary international practice. For reasons unknown, the EP-3 airplane made a sudden maneuver and crashed into one of the Chinese planes. The Chinese plane dropped into the sea, the pilot missing. The U.S. spy plane was also severely damaged. It intruded into Chinese territorial space and landed on Hainan Island without official permission from the Chinese side. After landing, the spy plane and 24 crew on board were detained by the Chinese authorities. This air collision episode was the first of its kind in the China-U.S. relations and an urgent diplomatic crisis ensued.     

The Logic of Coercion in Cyberspace

What are the dynamics of coercion in cyberspace? Can states use cyber means as independent tools of coercion to influence the behavior of adversaries? This article critically assesses traditional coercion theory in light of cyberspace's emergence as a domain in which states use force, or its threat, to achieve political objectives. First, we review the core tenets of coercion theory and identify the requisites of successful coercion: clearly communicated threats; a cost–benefit calculus; credibility; and reassurance. We subsequently explore the extent to which each of these is feasible for or applicable to the cyber domain, highlighting how the dynamics of coercion in cyberspace mimic versus diverge from traditional domains of warfare. We demonstrate that cyber power alone has limited effectiveness as a tool of coercion, although it has significant utility when coupled with other elements of national power. Second, this article assesses the viability and effectiveness of six prominent warfighting strategies in the traditional coercion literature as applied to the cyber domain: attrition, denial, decapitation, intimidation, punishment, and risk. We conclude that, based on the current technological state of the field, states are only likely to achieve desired objectives employing attrition, denial, or decapitation strategies. Our analysis also has unique implications for the conduct of warfare in cyberspace. Perhaps counterintuitively, the obstacles to coercion that our analysis identifies may prompt states to reevaluate norms against targeting civilian infrastructure.     

Coercion and Control: Explaining India's Victory at Kargil

This article argues that most analyses of the Kargil conflict concede the important role played by the United States in understanding how India regained control of the Kargil heights, but fail to explain how India's intra-war compellent threat forced Washington to bring irresistible pressure to bear on Islamabad. The Indian decision to threaten asymmetrical escalation was the result of domestic pressures and military difficulties facing the Vajpayee-led caretaker government. The article shows that Washington pursued an “impartially” interventionist strategy until it came under Indian pressure to forsake its “balanced” approach towards ending the conflict. The article also shows how the “asymmetry of motivation” between New Delhi and Washington was an important factor in terminating hostilities in India's favor.     

俄格冲突与上海合作组织

俄格冲突给国际关系带来的变化使上海合作组织面临极为复杂的国际和地区环境。冲突除导致俄美对抗加剧给上海合作组织的发展方向提出严峻挑战外，当事国俄罗斯的对外政策、对前苏联地区（尤其是中亚地区）的政策及其对上海合作组织的政策态度，都会对上海合作组织产生深刻的影响。在新的形势下，上海合作组织应在区域经济合作上有所突破，在地区安全（如阿富汗局势）上有所作为，以保持该组织的良好状态和发展活力。     

Nato Enlargement and the Spread of Democracy: Evidence and Expectations

The second enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since the end of the cold war fueled an ongoing debate over whether the alliance contributes to democratization in Europe. In the 1990s, critics warned that the 1999 NATO enlargement would cultivate a new cold war and prove irrelevant to democratic consolidation in central Europe. Events have not borne out these forecasts, however. In Poland, not only did NATO build a civilian consensus in favor of democratic control over the armed forces corresponding to NATO norms, but it also delegitimized Polish arguments for defense self-sufficiency that had derived their credibility from Poland's experience of military vulnerability and foreign domination. Such democratizing and denationalizing trends have contributed to stability in postcommunist Europe. An assessment of the seven states that joined in 2004 similarly reveals some scope for NATO's influence in all cases. The alliance's access to domestic reform processes, however, will be uneven across cases in ways largely consistent with the predictions of the theoretical framework in this article.

     

American Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

The Arab-Israeli conflict is a part of the regional puzzle, the author contends, but not the key to the regional puzzle in the Middle East. He further cautions that U.S. interests in the Middle East will not be well served by a U.S. President who is essentially the President of the Arab-Israeli conflict.     

比较利益原则与拉美国家的发展悖论

本文从理论上阐释了比较利益原则与拉美国家发展悖论的问题,认为拉美国家的产业结构和贸易商品结构基本上是秉承着天然资源优势而形成的,这种比较利益结构虽然在一段时期内使拉美国家获得了一些贸易利益,但却强化了拉美国家低水平的产业结构,进一步扩大了与发达国家及其他新兴发展中国家的经济差距,从而使其陷入了初级产品比较利益陷阱和制成品比较优势陷阱。拉美国家要想在未来的国际贸易中获得更多的贸易利益,缩小与发达国家的差距,就必须尽快从比较优势战略向竞争优势战略转变。     

Engaging Conflict History and Memory Across the Taiwan Strait: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Conflict Timelines from Interactive Conflict Resolution (ICR) Dialogues

An analysis of twenty pairs of Taiwanese and mainland Chinese timelines of cross-Strait relations demonstrates a highly dynamic way in which the two societies' conflict memories have evolved over two decades. These timelines were developed in the context of twenty weeklong Interactive Conflict Resolution (ICR) dialogues that the author facilitated. A cohort of civil society delegates from both sides of the Strait, each with five persons, participated in each of the dialogues and produced the timelines. A longitudinal content analysis of the timelines reveals that the participants' experiences of cross-Strait relations have continuously altered their mental frames of the conflict. It also reveals distinct patterns of their recollections. These findings challenge the prevailing practices of conflict mapping and analysis that uncritically presume a static nature of conflict parties' goals. Broader implications of the study include the usefulness of action research and applied practice for methodological innovations and theory building.     

从柬泰边境冲突看东盟冲突管理的困境与出路

东盟自成立以来,在地区管理中逐步形成了一套冲突管理机制。这一机制在维护地区和平与稳定中发挥了重大的作用。但是,柬泰冲突中东盟的无力表现则凸显了东盟冲突管理机制的困境。文章在四个方面提出提高东盟冲突管理能力的途径。     

冲突管理与朝核问题

朝核问题陷入僵局并呈现恶化的势头.先是美朝双方在落实《共同声明》的具体步骤上出现争议和美国对朝鲜实行金融制裁,使得第五轮六方会谈第二阶段会议迟迟未能召开;2006年7月5日,朝鲜导弹试射加大了六方会谈复会的难度;10月9日,朝鲜进行的地下核试验更是一石激起千层浪,朝核问题的严重性和紧迫性进一步凸现.     

Understanding the Art and Techniques of Conflict Resolution

Negotiation Journal -     

Preferential Trade Agreements and Trade Expectations Theory

Studies find that members of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are less likely to be involved in militarized conflict. An expectation of continuing amicable trade relations is among the factors linking PTAs to peace. However, this role of PTAs is difficult to test due to the problem of observational equivalence; PTAs correlate with trade levels and liberalization, factors also linked to peace. In this article, we isolate the impact of PTAs on trade expectations by distinguishing between signed agreements and those in force. A focus on signed but not-yet-in-force PTAs allows us to assess the correlation between agreements and peace before other pacifying, and therefore potentially confounding, elements emerge. Statistical tests spanning 1957 to 2000 demonstrate that signed PTAs are pacifying, while in-force agreements have no statistically significant impact when controlling for other factors linked to peace.     

Russia-Georgia Conflict and Beyond

Yet another Post 9/11 historical event indicating a significant turning point in the Post-Cold War era, Russia-Georgia conflict represents a remarkable change in the international strategy of a resurgent Russia. It also signifies that former Soviet republics are still groping for a new identity and that a new round of realignment will persist in the vast Eurasia region. The conflict reveals declining U.S. global control, flawed European integration, and NATO embarrassment. To a certain extent, it exposes chaos brought about by international nonpolarity and world governance vacuum. It also highlights what serious consequences can a double standard inflict on the principles of international law. A reasonable arrangement for global security and economic growth is therefore challenging the resolve and wisdom of international strategists. Actually fierce geopolitical rivalry for energy resources is at work behind the Russia-Georgia conflict. This will further compound the international energy strategic environment.