Intergovernmental grants and successful tax limitation referenda

Analyses of fiscal limitation referenda have typically ignored the role of institutional structure in referenda outcomes. This article demonstrates the importance of such structure through the investigation of intergovernmental grants in a model of federal tax rate determination. Tax limitation referenda are shown to depend upon both the use of tax rates as a grant disbursement criterion as well as the size of the proposed tax cut.     

Political markets, property tax referenda, and local school spending

For better or worse, fiscal decisions made through property tax referenda allow local political markets to work. Demand, supply, and voting process components of such markets are estimated for those Oregon K-12 school districts that held referenda between 1981 and 1986. Various attributes of the median voter were related to school spending, but supply decisions by school boards and administrators were also important. Large districts used state aid to substitute for local property tax revenues on nearly a one-for-one basis, while relying on reversion budgets (inadequate property tax bases and implicit threats of school closures) to extract greater-than-desired spending levels from the median voter.     

Voter Responses to Referenda Seeking to Exceed Revenue Limits

Following voter approval of California's Proposition 13, a body of research has attempted to explain referenda outcomes aimed at restricting public sector tax and spending authority. Evaluating the determinants of voter attitudes toward referenda to exceed spending/revenue limits, however, has received little attention. Using data for all Wisconsin school districts, we examine the outcomes of referenda to exceed revenue caps. A key finding of our research is that when voters support bonding for capital expenditures, they tend also to approve referenda to override revenue limits. This enables school districts to cover new operating costs often associated with new capital projects.     

Bremse oder Gaspedal? Eine empirische Untersuchung zur Wirkung der direkten Demokratie auf den Steuerstaat

This article analyzes the relationship between the different forms of direct democratic participation and the size of the tax state in the Swiss cantons for the period from 1983 to 2000. The analysis distinguishes between the different effects of the financial referendum and the initiative. Theoretical arguments suppose that the financial referendum curb the tax state, whereas the initiative is expected to contribute to its growth. Pooled time series analyses show that legal conditions of direct democratic participation in general and especially the legislation on financial referenda are much more important than the frequency of plebiscites for the explanation of the different sizes of the tax states in the cantons. As an additional result of the analyses, the impact of direct democracy on the tax state turns out to be much larger in the 1990s compared to the decade before.     

Why are highly informed citizens sceptical of referenda?

Past work on attitudes toward the use of referenda finds that the most politically informed citizens are more sceptical of its use than their less informed counterparts. An intriguing tension presents itself in that those citizens who may be best equipped for referendum voting, the highly informed and politically sophisticated, are the least likely to support the use of this tool of direct democracy. Using data from Canadian Election Studies, we consider three explanations for relative referenda scepticism among political sophisticates. Our analyses provide evidence to support a confidence in government explanation and a concern for minority rights explanation, but not an incompetent public explanation – a curious finding considering the centrality of citizen competence in the theoretical literature on referenda.     

Success and design of local referenda for land conservation

From 1998 to 2006, over three‐quarters of the more than 1,550 U.S. referenda targeting open space passed. We analyze the success of the conservation movement at holding referenda in areas with greater ecological value and greater likelihood of supporting conservation. To do so, we first analyze the patterns in where referenda are held and in which finance mechanisms they employ. Controlling for these two selection patterns, we then investigate the factors determining the success of the referenda. Our findings suggest that conservation groups are pursuing a successful strategy, targeting communities with above‐average probabilities of passing referenda and higher ecological value. Nevertheless, our results suggest that overlooked opportunities exist in minority and middle‐class neighborhoods, in suburban fringe areas, and in the Southeast. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The Impact of EU Referenda on National Electoral Politics: The Dutch Case

This study deals with the issue of increasing contention regarding European matters in national arenas. Specifically, it focuses on the impact of European Union referenda on national elections. EU referenda have two important consequences for national politics: they increase inter-party conflict over Europe and gear up voters' salience to EU matters. In doing so, EU referenda allow voters to identify parties closest to them on the EU issue, thereby increasing the likelihood that they will vote for a party on the basis of EU attitudes (i.e. EU issue voting). These propositions are evaluated empirically in a quasi-experimental setting by comparing two parliamentary elections before and after the first Dutch EU referendum in 2005. The findings show that referenda indeed facilitate the development of EU issue voting. Consequently, the conclusions of this study are not only relevant to observers of Dutch politics, but also contribute to a larger debate within the field of EU studies.     

STATE FINANCE AND TAXING POLICIES

The states have moved through three distinct periods in finance and taxing policies. First, until the 1930s, states dominated over congress in taxing powers. During the Great Depression, many programs were initiated which involved the states in close grant-in-aid arrangements with the federal government. A second period was initiated during the 1960s. when the number of federally-funded grants exploded. States were soon involved in a variety of new responsibilities. This period has now been supplemented by a third, which is characterized by tax reductions and spending limits, often imposed through referenda.     

Election Timing,Electorate Composition,and Policy Outcomes: Evidence from School Districts

There is considerable debate about how election timing shapes who votes, election outcomes, and, ultimately, public policy. We examine these matters by combining information on more than 10,000 school tax referenda with detailed micro‐targeting data on voters participating in each election. The analysis confirms that timing influences voter composition in terms of partisanship, ideology, and the numerical strength of powerful interest groups. But, in contrast to prominent theories of election timing, these effects are modest in terms of their likely impact on election outcomes. Instead, timing has the most significant impact on voter age, with the elderly being the most overrepresented group in low‐turnout special elections. The electoral (and policy) implications of this effect vary between states, and we offer one explanation for this variation.     

The Demand for Referendum: When Does It Arise and when Does It Succeed?*

The purpose of this article is to try to discern certain general features in the origins of the demands for referenda, and why these demands succeed or fail. A distinction is drawn between (a) the demand for a referendum on a certain issue and (b) the demand to amend the constitution to allow for referenda of one form or other. (a) Nation-wide referenda are rare almost everywhere, but demands for referenda arise more frequently. The article argues there are often regularities in the way these demands arise. A request for a referendum on one specific issue can be regarded as a minority weapon. Those who have had their standpoint voted down demand a referendum. If their demand is to succeed, two conditions are important: parties which are split and strong commitment on the part of the voters. To understand why an original minority weapon can get support from the majority, two functions of the demand for referendum are central: the function as a mediation device and as a lightning rod. (b) Concerning interest in the introduction of the referendum as a more or less regular principle of government, we find that referendum enthusiasts often share a similar ideology or view of society. The most central catchword here is antiparty sentiment.     

Non-binding linked-issues referenda: Analysis and an application

Non-binding referenda (‘petitions') are an instrument of direct democracy that allows citizens to signal preferences to politicians outside the electoral cycle. This paper provides a simple theoretical and empirical analysis of a particular form of non-binding referenda, so-called linked-issues petitions. It analyzes the ability of issue linkage to increase participation levels above those of single-issue petitions and applies the analytical insights to a controversial referendum held in Austria in 2002 that linked issues of transboundary nuclear risk and Eastern enlargement of the European Union.     

Direkte Demokratie in Europa: Erträge,Probleme und Perspektiven der vergleichenden Forschung

In recent years, the number of publications investigating national referenda in Europe on both a theoretical and a comparative basis has considerably grown. The review essay takes stock of this literature, focusing on three questions: What are the main reasons for introducing and using direct-democratic institutions? How can the results of referenda and initiatives be explained? What effects do they have on parliamentary democracy? The critical review sheds light on important achievements as well as persistent gaps and problems of the existing scholarship.     

Referendum Design: An Exercise in Applied Social Choice Theory

The formal status of the referendum institution in democratic system varies from consultative and optional to mandatory and binding. Despit the formal status, it can be argued that in all systems the legislators can hardly ignore the referendum results. The article presents two arguments: (1) The results of social choice theory suggest that the number of alternatives in referenda should to be restricted to two in order to a void severe problems of interpretation and agenda manipulation. (2) The consultative referendum system may lead to quite dramatic norm conflicts for both legislators and voters. Taken together, these two arguments imply that referenda are appropriate only in cases where there is natural way to dichotomize the issue at hand. Moreover, whenever a referendum is called, its result should be binding.     

Political participation in Swiss referenda at federal and cantonal levels: 1879–1981

Political participation in the process of semidirect democracy differs in several important respects from political participation in elections in representative democracies. This study discusses patterns of participation in 300 referenda at the cantonal and federal level in Switzerland during the 1879–1981 period. The purpose of this survey is to account for cross-temporal and cross-cantonal variations in terms of: (a) referenda type, (b) competition intensity, and (c) the influence of a multiple political culture. The findings suggest that distinctive political cultures and life styles, and other collective factors account for turn-out percentages and competition intensity. Voters tend to mobilize essentially to reject constitutional revisions and laws rather than accept them. The significance of cross-temporal differences was found to diminish during the 1952–1981 period. This tendency toward increasing standardization of Swiss political participation does not, however, completely blur the specificity of participation within cantons, suggesting that the multicultural nature of Swiss society is still prevalent.     

The 2003 and 2015 Constitutional Referenda in Rwanda: A Significant Change in Voter Turnout

Data on voter turnout and choice at the Rwanda’s 2003 and 2015 constitutional referenda were acquired and analyzed. The results revealed contrasting changes in voter turnout between diaspora and in-country electorate. Arguably, at home, lack of freedom on the part of registered voters to make independent choices may explain the 9.3 percent and 5.2 percent increase in voter turnout and “yes” vote, respectively. On the other hand, while the repressive arm of the regime can reach Rwandan citizens both at home and abroad so as to compel them not oppose its political agenda, voters in diaspora enjoy some level of relaxation, especially those staying in Western democracies, which could explain the 37.8 percent drop in voter turnout. The article further argues that the results of the 2003 and 2015 referenda could be used to support suggestions that the Tutsi electorate indeed stands more divided than it was a decade ago.     

Budgeting by the Ballot: Initiatives in the State of Montana

Citizen participation in the decision-making process and government's responsiveness to people's needs constitute the core of the democratic ethic. Three institutional arrangements are devised to make democracy more democratic: initiatives, referenda, and recall. This article deals specifically with the initiative process in the State of Montana. While citizen participation could be an end in itself, it is viewed here as a means to achieve specific ends. Three different initiatives are studied using four criteria to determine the efficacy of the process.     

The Downsian model of electoral participation: Formal theory and empirical analysis of the constituency size effect

This paper applies a game-theoretic model of participation under uncertainty to investigate the negative relationship between constituency size and voter turnout rates: theconstituency size effect. We find that this theoretical model accounts for almost all of the variation in turnout due to size in cross sectional data from school budget referenda.     

The public choice of educational choice

The very small literature explaining (i) how citizens have voted in two California voucher referenda, (ii) how legislators have voted on voucher bills in the State of Florida and the US Congress, and (iii) the variation across states in charter school provisions is summarized. New empirical evidence documenting the cross-state variation in the success of voucher referenda and voucher bills is examined. Voucher bill characteristics and state characteristics play important roles. Voucher bills have been passed only in the more conservative Republican states, and almost all of the successful voucher programs have been targeted at large, struggling school districts.     

Who supports minority rights in popular votes? Empirical evidence from Switzerland

Recent research shows that well-educated citizens are more supportive of minority rights in direct democratic votes than people with less education. This article however suggests that educational effects on minority rights only emerge under certain conditions. A Bayesian multilevel analysis of 39 referendums and initiatives on minority rights in Switzerland (1981–2009) shows that educational effects are particularly strong when the rights of lesser-known cultural minorities are to be extended. They are entirely absent, however, when referenda address the curtailment of rights for well-known minority groups.     

Dynamic Revenue Curves for North Carolina Taxes

Dynamic tax analysis allows a tax rate to affect the economic base being taxed. Consequently, the relationship between a tax rate and the taxed economic base is nonlinear and includes a region where a higher (lower) tax rate results in lower (higher) tax revenues. Relationships between the economic base and the tax rate are estimated for five major taxes in North Carolina. In all but one case, a statistically significant negative effect was found for the tax rate on the economic base. Dynamic relationships were strongest for the sales tax and weakest for the unemployment compensation tax.