The Dynamics of Top‐Down Organizational Change: Donald Rumsfeld's Campaign to Transform the U.S. Defense Department

Drawing upon interviews with 69 defense policymakers and close observers, this article develops an extrapolation‐oriented case study of Donald Rumsfeld's campaign to transform the development of the U.S. Defense Department's future capabilities. This reform effort, launched by President George W. Bush during his first presidential campaign, encountered difficulties in developing and promoting the content of the proposed transformation and in executing it. Following Eugene Bardach's work on institutional craftsmanship and Michael Barzelay's efforts to further develop Bardach's methodology for extrapolation‐oriented case studies, the article explores the sources of the transformation campaign's difficulties, identifying several mechanisms linking common process context factors, exacerbated by process design features, to these negative outcomes. It also offers suggestions for rendering the design of change campaigns more robust to these vulnerabilities.     

Lost in Aggregation: Improving Event Analysis with Report‐Level Data

Most measures of social conflict processes are derived from primary and secondary source reports. In many cases, reports are used to create event‐level data sets by aggregating information from multiple, and often conflicting, reports to single event observations. We argue that this pre‐aggregation is less innocuous than it seems, costing applied researchers opportunities for improved inference. First, researchers cannot evaluate the consequences of different methods of report aggregation. Second, aggregation discards report‐level information (i.e., variation across reports) that is useful in addressing measurement error inherent in event data. Therefore, we advocate that data should be supplied and analyzed at the report level. We demonstrate the consequences of using aggregated event data as a predictor or outcome variable, and how analysis can be improved using report‐level information directly. These gains are demonstrated with simulated‐data experiments and in the analysis of real‐world data, using the newly available Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Database (MMAD).     

Pedagogy for policy analysis and management

This essay presents two pedagogical models found in public policy programs, and attends (less exhaustively) to the managerial environment in which they coexist. The models are, of course, lecturing in all its various versions, and the cluster of teaching practices called case‐method teaching, student‐centered learning, active learning, experiential learning, discussion‐based teaching, and the like. The central question addressed is: How can it be that we still don't know which is better, or which is better for what, if know means anything like what it means in the larger policy analytic paradigm? Research comparing practices can improve our choices and outcomes.12 12

1 Thanks to myriad colleagues (especially) John Boehrer, J. Mark Schuster, Eugene Bardach, and David Kirp, plus my cohort of 2005–06 Presidential Chair Fellows and that program's very committed leader, Steve Tollefson, for discussions of pedagogy that have reminded me over the years that teaching could be an intellectually demanding, rigorous, and collaborative enterprise, and to Robert MacCoun for comments on drafts of this paper.

     

IMPLEMENTATION OF EVIDENCE‐BASED PRACTICE IN HUMAN SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FROM AGENT‐BASED MODELS

Much of the impact of a policy depends on how it is implemented, especially as mediated by organizations such as schools or hospitals. Here, we focus on how implementation of evidence‐based practices in human service organizations (e.g., schools, hospitals) is affected by intraorganizational network dynamics. In particular, we hypothesize intraorganizational behavioral divergence and network polarization are likely to occur when actors strongly identify with their organizations. Using agent‐based models, we find that when organizational identification is high, external change agents who attempt to direct organizations by introducing policy aligned messages (e.g., professional development emphasizing specific teaching practices) may unintentionally contribute to divergence in practice and polarization in networks, inhibiting full implementation of the desired practices as well as reducing organizational capacity to absorb new practices. Thus, the external change agent should consider the interaction between the type of message and the intraorganizational network dynamics driven by organizational identification.     

The role of the state in enabling private sector development: an assessment methodology

There are many ideas about how the state can and should enable private sector development. However, most of these ideas are not derived from the private sector itself. Participatory policy research has so far been confined to public sector development contexts. This article provides some background information about the garment and textile industry in Zimbabwe. It then describes one pioneering attempt to develop and assess an enabling state assessment methodology in this context, for possible use in the private sector more generally. The methodology described consists of a series of participant‐developed checklists, around the predetermined themes of the policy, agency and enterprise environments. These checklists were explored through the use of semi‐structured dialogue, using visual methods such as impact diagramming, Venn diagramming, master charts and problem trees, in the context of enterprise‐based meetings and two subsequent workshops. The article summarizes the main constraints and recommended actions identified by the participants. The participants, the researchers and the author also assess each step of the methodology.These steps include: developing an agenda; designing the process; identifying a target population and research team; developing and applying the methodology; analysing the results and documenting the process. Lessons are also drawn from this assessment for each stage of the methodology. This article concludes with a discussion about the transferability of the methodology and the need to experiment with other methodologies. The final section also draws out the differences and similarities between this and other types of participatory policy research. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What to Do about Missing Values in Time‐Series Cross‐Section Data

Applications of modern methods for analyzing data with missing values, based primarily on multiple imputation, have in the last half‐decade become common in American politics and political behavior. Scholars in this subset of political science have thus increasingly avoided the biases and inefficiencies caused by ad hoc methods like listwise deletion and best guess imputation. However, researchers in much of comparative politics and international relations, and others with similar data, have been unable to do the same because the best available imputation methods work poorly with the time‐series cross‐section data structures common in these fields. We attempt to rectify this situation with three related developments. First, we build a multiple imputation model that allows smooth time trends, shifts across cross‐sectional units, and correlations over time and space, resulting in far more accurate imputations. Second, we enable analysts to incorporate knowledge from area studies experts via priors on individual missing cell values, rather than on difficult‐to‐interpret model parameters. Third, because these tasks could not be accomplished within existing imputation algorithms, in that they cannot handle as many variables as needed even in the simpler cross‐sectional data for which they were designed, we also develop a new algorithm that substantially expands the range of computationally feasible data types and sizes for which multiple imputation can be used. These developments also make it possible to implement the methods introduced here in freely available open source software that is considerably more reliable than existing algorithms.     

Explaining Levels of Local Government Involvement in Service Delivery: The Dynamics of Cross‐Sector Partnerships in Malawi

This study explores how local governments and their development partners—that is, donors, non‐governmental organisations and private companies—structure their partnerships as they work together to provide services to communities. Cases of collaboration between four organisations working in the rural water supply sector and six local governments in Malawi are studied. Using a cross‐case qualitative methodology, we illustrate how power and control translate into practices, leading to different levels of local government involvement in service delivery. This study contributes to the literature on cross‐sector partnerships in particular by developing empirically‐based propositions that help explain the dynamic trajectories that partnerships between local governments and their development partners can take. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Activists playing a dual role: identities,organizational goals,and public relations practices

• This study explores the relationship among identities, goals, and public relations practices of an activist organization through in‐depth interviews and document analysis. Findings suggest different levels of the participant organization's identity in communication with its different audiences. In playing its dual role (as a “public” to its target organizations and a “public communicator” to its own publics), the organization acts as an honest representative voice and a credible source of information to both parties, a process that requires a balance position compatible with its mission. Its public relations practices were found to be consistent with the identities it appropriates and the values it respects.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlates of rigorous and credible transnational governance: A cross‐sectoral analysis of best practice compliance in eco‐labeling

The number of eco‐labeling schemes is rising dramatically, yet the rigor and credibility of such schemes remains uneven. Whereas some eco‐labeling organizations (ELOs) comply with best practice guidelines designed to increase the credibility of their standards through attention to good operating principles, such as transparency and impartiality, others do not. Within this article, I attempt to explain this variation through multivariate regression analysis of an original cross‐sectoral dataset of transnational ELO policies and practices. I find compelling evidence to suggest that ELOs with environmental non‐governmental organization (ENGO) partners, nonprofit structures, or broad transnational reach are most likely to comply with best practices. I also find that private ELOs are more likely to disregard best practices than public ones. Conversely, I find little evidence that levels of industry funding or sector‐specific competition dynamics affect best practice compliance. This study contributes new data, a new method of comparison, and new findings to the growing literature on transnational governance.     

An effectiveness‐based evaluation of five state pre‐kindergarten programs

Since 1980, the number of state pre‐kindergarten (pre‐K) programs has more than doubled, with 38 states enrolling more than one million children in 2006 alone. This study evaluates how five state pre‐K programs affected children's receptive vocabulary, math, and print awareness skills. Taking advantage of states' strict enrollment policies determined by a child's date of birth, a regression‐discontinuity design was used to estimate effects in Michigan, New Jersey, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and West Virginia. For receptive vocabulary, only New Jersey and Oklahoma yielded significant standardized impacts, though two of the three other coefficients were in a direction indicating positive effects. For math, all the coefficients were positive but only Michigan and New Jersey yielded reliable results. The largest impacts were for print awareness, where all five coefficients were positive and four were reliable in Michigan, New Jersey, South Carolina, and West Virginia. The five states were not randomly selected and, on average, have higher quality program standards than non‐studied states, precluding formal extrapolation to the nation at large. However, our sample of states differed in many other ways, permitting the conclusion that state pre‐K programs can have positive effects on children's cognitive skills, though the magnitude of these effects varies by state and outcome. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Organisational culture and enterprise risk management: The Australian not‐for‐profit context

With the increasing emphasis on risk management in not‐for‐profit organisations, this study is timely in its examination of risk management practices in the Australian not‐for‐profit sector. Specifically, the study investigates the relation between not‐for‐profits’ organisational culture and the maturity of enterprise risk management (ERM) practices. The results show that the organisational culture factors of Outcome Orientation (valuing achievements and results) and Innovation (valuing receptivity and adaptability to change) are associated with the maturity of not‐for‐profits’ ERM. This finding demonstrates the important role that organisational culture plays in shaping ERM practices in not‐for‐profit organisations and the crucial role that leaders play in creating and nurturing such a culture within their organisations. The results also have implications for regulatory policy‐making in, and for, the not‐for‐profit sector.     

IoT‐enabled services in online food retailing

The present study aims at understanding the application of Internet of Things (IoT) in online food retailing, influencing purchase frequency of ready‐to‐eat food products. The research is empirical in nature in which an internet based consumer survey was conducted to collect 329 valid responses on PAN India basis. This research comprehensively investigated, shortlisted, and finally selected the factors of consumer involvement and decision making using IoT in online food retailing. The binary logistic regression model revealed that the factors relative advantage, best deals, availability and information, consumer satisfaction, and channel efficiency significantly influences the consumer purchase frequency for ready‐to‐eat food products at various stages in online food retailing. The understanding, extrapolation, and proper management of these factors will help online food retail players in implementing IoT enable services effectively in their retail formats to gain consumer confidence.     

The Formation and Impact of Isomorphic Pressures: Extravagant Position‐Related Consumption in China

In this article, we examine the impact of isomorphic pressures on institutional practices, a field that has not been adequately explored and explained. A critical issue, on which this article focuses, is the process by which isomorphic pressures translate into homogenous institutional practices across organizations. Drawing on the case of extravagant position‐related consumption in local governments in China, we identify the sources of isomorphic pressures, how they come to have an impact, in what ways they are manifested and how they are sustained. We find that institutionalized isomorphic pressures may create informal institutional practices in contradiction to formal legal norms. We further analyze the endogenous dynamics behind the formation of isomorphic pressures, which are deeply embedded in the complex web of Chinese bureaucratic relationships. This article is based on 65 in‐depth interviews with government officials as well as relevant government documents and media accounts.     

Community‐Based Participatory Research as a Tool for Policy Change: A Case Study of the Southern California Environmental Justice Collaborative

In 2000, a regional rule governing maximum individual cancer risk from stationary facilities in Southern California was dramatically altered, reducing allowable risk levels by 75%. This article uses a case study approach to explore the role of a community‐based participatory research (CBPR) partnership, the Southern California Environmental Justice Collaborative, in producing research and helping spearhead policy advocacy leading to this policy change. It also highlights the role of the collaborative in helping to change the framing of the issue from individual to cumulative risk assessment, so that the regulatory agencies began to reflect this broader thinking in their policymaking. The collaborative's structure and methodology, regional focus, relationships with key decision makers, and its reputation as an important source of both credible science and “people power” were seen as contributing to its effectiveness. The role of contextual factors including a recovering and more regulation‐friendly economy also is highlighted, as are key barriers faced. Implications for other community–academic partnerships working to address regional and statewide public policy are discussed.     

A Strategy to Prevent Losses in Local Government Investment Pools

In the first half of the 1990s, some local government investment pools (LGIPs) suffered losses from derivatives investments. Although the losses came from derivatives, the actual cause of the losses was the violation of public-fund prudent investment practices. This article provides a strategy to prevent future losses for LGIPs' participants by looking at the pattern of return on investment of the pools. Our proposal is that rates of return on state pools that co-move with market rates are generally an indication of adherence to prudent investment practices. We demonstrate the viability of this proposal by using co-integration methodology. The implication is that if rates of return on a state pool do not co-move with market rates, they may indicate the violation of prudent investment practices.     

Public Financial Management Systems and Countries' Governance: A Cross‐Country Study

The objective of this study is to explore whether a relationship exists between public financial management (PFM) systems and expert perceptions of countries' governance in an international cross‐country study. We examine the extent to which variations in accounting, budgeting and auditing practices are associated with governance in a sample of 97 countries that represent different levels of development, analysing the differences between countries classified into factor, efficiency and innovation‐driven economies. Our concept of governance perception includes three dimensions: accountability, government effectiveness and corruption. We find that countries with a higher level of economic development show, on average, more sophisticated PFM systems characterized by the presentation of accrual‐based financial statements, the application of value for money audits and higher budget transparency. When analysing the sub‐samples of countries according to the level of economic development, we find that countries with similar governance perception scores show different patterns of PFM practices, suggesting that there is no one‐size‐fits‐all approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comment on Diagnostic Tools for Counterfactual Inference

Alexander Michaelides London School of Economics, Department of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK e-mail: a.michaelides{at}lse.ac.uk We evaluate two diagnostic tools used to determine if counterfactualanalysis requires extrapolation. Counterfactuals based on extrapolationare model dependent and might not support empirically validinferences. The diagnostics help researchers identify thosecounterfactual "what if" questions that are empirically plausible.We show, through simple Monte Carlo experiments, that thesediagnostics will often detect extrapolation, suggesting thatthere is a risk of biased counterfactual inference when thereis no such risk of extrapolation bias in the data. This is becausethe diagnostics are affected by what we call the n/k problem:as the number of data points relative to the number of explanatoryvariables decreases, the diagnostics are more likely to detectthe risk of extrapolation bias even when such risk does notexist. We conclude that the diagnostics provide too severe atest for many data sets used in political science. Author's note: We thank Komei Fukuda, Don Green, Alan Gerber,and Jasjeet Sekhon for their generous help, Mike Kane for assistancewith R programming, and five anonymous referees for constructivecomments.     

Negotiating Urban Space: The Challenge of Political Steering in Market‐ and Network‐oriented Urban Planning

This article examines challenges related to the political steering of New Public Management‐inspired planning practices in Norway and asks if local politicians have sufficient and adequate instruments to hand, and if they are willing and have the knowledge to use them. The discussion is based upon a broad survey of the 145 largest municipalities and qualitative interviews in the three largest cities. It is found that local politicians do not lack steering instruments, as the different managerial practices represent a spectrum of suitable tools for giving direction to urban development. However, the data indicate that local politicians do not utilise the full steering potential of the instruments due to lack of knowledge and will. These findings contribute to the discussion of the strategic steering role of local politicians.     

Beyond Smokestacks and Silos: Open‐Source,Web‐Enabled Coordination in Organizations and Networks

What accounts for coordination problems? Many mechanisms of coordination exist in both organizations and networks, yet despite their widespread use, coordination challenges persist. Some believe the challenges are growing even more serious. One answer lies in understanding that coordination is not a free good; it is expensive in terms of time, effort, and attention, or what economists call transaction and administrative costs. An alternative to improving coordination is to reduce its costs, yet there is little guidance in the literature to help managers and researchers calculate coordination costs or make design decisions based on cost reductions. This article explores two cases—the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s Peer‐to‐Patent pilot program and the online relief effort in Haiti following the devastating earthquake there in 2010—to illustrate the advantages and constraints of using Web 2.0 technology as a mechanism of coordination and a tool for cost reduction. The lessons learned from these cases may offer practitioners and researchers a way out of our “silos” and “smokestacks.”     

Pricing Outputs: A Case Study in Law Enforcement

This paper discusses the advantages and limitations of economic evaluation as a measurement methodology within the Australian government's outcome and output framework including preliminary benefit–cost analysis of Australian Federal Police investigations. The results suggest that the Australian Federal Police is returning over $5 to the community for every dollar invested in fraud and drug investigations. It is concluded that benefit–cost analysis is a useful tool for comparing the price of an output to the value of an outcome. The method has limitations. Not all outcomes will admit of easy assessment and the information may be difficult to collect. However, the use of surrogate measures and extrapolation of results may overcome most of these limitations.