Diversity in the American States: Updating the Sullivan Index

The index of socioeconomic and cultural diversity among theAmerican states formulated by John L. Sullivan for 1960 is recreatedfor 1980. Comparisons are made between the index for the twotime periods, and changes among the states are examined overtime. Significant differences continue to exist between northernand southern states, mainly because of cultural rather thansocioeconomic factors. The diversity index remains a relativelypowerful predictor of policy variation among the states and,as such, might be considered as a substitute for geographicregion in comparative state policy research.     

扬汤止沸:韩国现代化中的早期反腐败--韩国现代化进程中反腐败问题研究之一

现代化过程为腐败提供了广阔的空间和大量机会.韩国现代化的过程既伴随着腐败的不断滋生,也伴随着持续不断地反腐败.韩国现代化进程中的反腐败大体可分为两个阶段,本文的研究范围是其中的第一阶段,即从上个世纪60年代初到80年代末.这一阶段的反腐败特点可概括为"扬汤止沸".政府在推动现代化的同时,辅之强有力的反腐败惩罚措施,遏制住了腐败的泛滥,使现代化得以持续推进.     

Institutions, Policy Innovation, and E-Government in the American States

Examining the rankings of American states in one fast‐growing policy area, e‐government, states with the most sophisticated and comprehensive policies varied over a five‐year period. What factors account for change in digital government policy innovation over time? Using time‐series analysis and 50‐state data, the authors find that state institutional capacity is important for continued innovation. They also find an association between reinvention in state governments and the institutionalization of information technology, suggesting a more general orientation toward government reform and modernization. Although state wealth and education were not significant in previous studies, they emerge as predictors of later innovation. The theoretical contribution of this study is to better understand the dynamic character of innovation over time and the role of institutions. The link between reinvention and e‐government raises the possibility that the modernization of state institutions generally facilitates innovation.     

Policy Diversity and Policy Learning in a Federation: The Case of Australian State Betting Law

A case study of the evolution of gambling laws in Australiais the vehicle for an analysis of changing patterns of diversityand uniformity in state policies. A pattern of diverse responsesto the gambling problem in 1930–1960 is explained as theexpression of distinctive state political and other factors.In accounting for the rapid adoption from 1960 of a uniformpolicy in each of the states, explanations are sought both inthe changing nature of these differences and in the interactiveeffects of membership in a federal polity. Particular attentionis paid to the role of "policy learning" among the states andto the "domino effect" of state-by-state adoptions. It is concludedthat such "federal effects" can account for diversity givingway to uniformity in outputs, and that this uniformity doesnot imply a rejection of underlying rationales for federalism.     

The decline in the number of school districts in the U.S.: 1950–1980

Between 1950 and 1980 the number of school districts fell from 83,642 to 15,987. Data for the fifty states for 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 are used to identify the factors that contributed to this decline. The focus is on the tradeoff between cost savings through scale economies (a few large districts) and a diverse population's demand for choice in public schooling (many small districts). We find that much of the decline in the number of school districts has resulted from: 1) the decline in the farm population and increase in population density, which has made it easier to take advantage of scale economies; 2) the growing importance of state aid, which reduces quality variation among districts within a state; and 3) the increase in the fraction of teachers that belong to the National Education Association teacher's union, which may reflect increased political influence used to lower the costs of organizing. Several states have laws that require school district and county (or state) boundaries to coincide. In the last section of the paper we estimate the costs of these laws. First, we compare the predicted number of districts, using the regression results in the earlier section of the paper, to the actual number in these states. Then we estimate a demand equation that is used to generate the dollar amount of the cost due to diminished interjurisdictional competition.     

The Impact of State Rainy Day Funds in Easing State Fiscal Crises During the 1990–1991 Recession

This article examines the degree to which rainy day funds eased the fiscal stress experienced by states during the 1990–1991 recession. In the first section, a state fiscal policy of neutrality over the business cycle is used as a benchmark for evaluating the use of budget stabilization funds. The next section looks at data from the last three recessions to see how recessions have affected the taxes and expenditures of states. A measure of degree of fiscal stress experienced by each state during the 1990–1991 recession is then calculated. These results are used to empirically investigate the impact of explicit state rainy day funds in easing state fiscal stress. Next, the article examines whether states that had rainy day funds in 1989 were more likely to have less fiscal stress, and whether the specific deposit and withdrawal provisions of these funds made a difference.     

A method for projecting the population according to size of locality. (Application to the case of Mexico's urban population in 1990)

"In this article, a restricted components method is presented (because sex and age are not taken into account) to project the population classified according to the size of the locality.... The application is presented for urban centers (15,000 or more inhabitants) of Mexico in 1990, utilizing the trend in demographic growth for the 1960-1980 period." Data are from Mexican censuses conducted in 1960, 1970, and 1980. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

State and local tax reform for the 1990s: Implications from Arizona

The state of Arizona recently established a temporary, blue-ribbon committee to evaluate the state's fiscal system and to recommend changes that would improve the system. The impetus for the committee was a series of budgetary difficulties in the 1980s that lawmakers hoped might be avoided in the future by implementing major structural changes suggested by a long-run analysis of the state's economy and taxes and expenditures. The findings and recommendations of the committee are relevant for states across the country. It is likely that many states will be faced with tough budgetary challenges in the decade of the 1990s because the states' revenue systems have not adapted to the changes in the level and nature of state spending responsibilities.     

The impact of the Second World War on postwar social spending

The huge quantitative literature on postwar social spending almost entirely neglected war as a possible explanatory factor of social spending dynamics. Given the mass carnage and the enormous social needs caused by the Second World War, this is quite astonishing. This article examines for the first time, whether, and in what ways, the Second World War affected cross‐national differences in public social spending of 18 Western welfare states over the course of the Golden Age. Using panel regressions, it is found that the war strongly affected social spending until the late 1960s. The evidence demonstrates that the Second World War is not simply a temporal watershed structuring different phases of welfare state development, but rather a crucial factor for understanding cross‐national differences in welfare efforts and social expenditure dynamics in the postwar period.     

Optimal taxation and economic growth: a comment

Scully (Public Choice 115: 299–312, 2003) claims that for the United States in 1960–1990, the growth-maximizing size of the state was about 19% of GDP. However if an error in the model specification is corrected and if 2001 vintage data is used (instead of 1996 vintage data), estimates of the growth-maximizing size of the state range between 9% and 29% of GDP. Further, the method spuriously identifies a ‘growth maximizing tax rate’ even if no relationship exists between growth and the size of the state. The model cannot address reliably the question it attempts to answer.     

Political Culture and State Development Policy

Economic development has become a prominent issue for stategovernments. Nevertheless, states vary in the economic policiesthey choose. Two general approaches to the issue are discussed:the maintenance/attraction strategy and the creation strategy.Factor analysis allows us to gauge state effort on these twocriteria. Regression analysis shows that political culture isan important factor in predicting which approach a state chooses,with traditionalistic states favoring the maintenance/attractionstrategy, and moralistic states favoring the creation alternative.Other predictors of state policy choices include the conditionof the economy and the diffusion of innovations. Also discussedis the interaction of political culture with other relevantvariables in shaping state policies.     

Simulation of a Constitutional Spending Limit for a Conservative State: With Dynamic Adjustment and Sensitivity Analysis

Longstanding concern about the rate of state and local government spending growth, strengthened by “Great Recession” economic and fiscal conditions, sustains advocacy of constitutional amendments to cap the growth of state and local taxes or spending. For some states, interest recently changed to necessity, and current constitutional limits—most notably the California experience with the Gann Spending limit (1979–1990) and the Colorado experience with its Taxpayer Bill of Rights (1992‐present)—contain numerous valuable lessons for fiscal restraint proponents. We use those lessons, and others, to develop a constitutional spending limit (CSL) for Utah, and describe a CSL simulation for the state for 1990–2009. In contrast to what an “Institutional Irrelevance Perspective” suggests for a politically conservative state such as Utah, we find that Utah would have seen large and robust CSL impacts from setting the spending growth rate at school‐age population plus inflation for K‐12 education funding, and at population plus inflation for remaining nonexempt state spending.¹ Those impacts include a reduced tax burden, sizable reserves to cope with emergencies, elimination of fiscal crises, and expanded personal income. Extensive sensitivity analysis identifies the key underlying factors and demonstrates the robustness of those findings. We compare the Utah results to a 1990–2009 CSL simulation for California, and a 1995–2009 CSL simulation for Ohio.     

Performance Budgeting and Performance Funding in the States: A States Assessment

For a variety of reasons, performance budgeting has gained new life in the 1990s. Initially introduced in the 1950s by the Hoover Commission and others, performance budgeting efforts, in the 1990s, go beyond the workload productivity and efficiency focus of earlier phases and place greater emphasis on outcomes and accountability. This study reports on a survey of state executive-branch budget officers designed to determine the current status of state performance budgeting efforts including performance budgeting processes used by the states, their perceived impacts on budget decision making, and their probable future use. In addition, the study assessed the emerging role of performance funding as a further extension of performance budgeting processes. The linking of performance to the allocation or distribution of appropriated funds may be emerging as the next iteration of performance budgeting in the states. In addition to reporting on the survey, relationships between performance budgeting and various aspects of state budgeting practices are analyzed through crosstabulations, and regression analysis is employed to examine the states' organization, fiscal, and political capacity to implement performance budgeting and funding.     

Variation in state education policies and effects on student performance

There have been few systematic studies of the effects that education policies adopted at the state level have on the quality of schooling within the state. This article, building on a framework developed by Eric Hanushek and Lori Taylor, measures the effects of state policies—in particular, the effects of state teacher certification requirements on SAT performance across states. In an examination of SAT data from 1972 to 1990, the results suggest that students in states with a master's degree requirement for teacher certification had lower SAT scores than students in states without a master's requirement. The empirical model accounts for inputs such as family background and other school factors typically used in education production functions.     

Performance Measurement in State Budgeting: Advancement and Backsliding from 1990 to 1995

Performance measurement has been one of the dominant themes of budget reform in the 1990s and has been prevalent in the mainstream of budgeting since the 1950s. Given the attention that performance measurement has had nationally, states might be expected to have made major strides in this arena in recent years. The article considers the current status of performance measurement practices, and identifies both advancement and backsliding made by states between 1990 and 1995. The discussion is based on data obtained from surveys of state budget offices in those two years. Indexes of performance measurement were constructed, and these became the bases of regression analyses using independent variables pertaining to state characteristics. Generally, these analyses were unsuccessful in explaining the variations among the states. The findings underscore the diversity among the states in their budgetary practices and the fact that budget reform, in the sense of increased use of performance measurement, is not necessarily achieved in a straight line of progression. The article considers possible explanations for the changes.     

Demographic structure and the political economy of public education

This article examines the relationship between demographic structure and the level of government spending on K-12 education. Panel data for the states of the United States over the 1960-1990 period suggests that an increase in the fraction of elderly residents in a jurisdiction is associated with a significant reduction in per-child educational spending. This reduction is particularly large when the elderly residents and the school-age population are from different racial groups. Variation in the size of the school-age population does not result in proportionate changes in education spending, thus, students in states with larger school-age populations receive lower per-student spending than those in states with smaller numbers of potential students. These results provide support for models of generational competition in the allocation of public sector resources. They also suggest that the effect of cohort size on government-mediated transfers must be considered in analyzing how cohort size affects economic well-being.     

The Impact of Tax Revenue from Capital Gains Realizations on State Income Tax Revenue and Budget Conditions

We explore the effect of the rapid increase in capital gains realizations on state income tax revenue during the 1990s and 2000s, and the effect that this had on state fiscal decisions regarding the use of these revenue. We find wide variation in the growth of capital gains realizations across states and that the growth in capital gains had a significant effect on state income tax revenue for many states. We find that states used a sizable portion of the additional revenue from capital gains to fund reserves in the year the revenue was generated, and that capital gains revenue lead to some reductions in taxes but not to increases in expenditures. The evidence suggests that states were conservative in their use of capital gains related revenues.     

The geographic scope of migration in Mexico City

"This paper reports some results of analyzing migratory dynamics in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City, which ever since the 1970-1980 decade have affected other regions of the country, mainly the State of Mexico. The analysis describes different types and modes of migratory movement: metropolitan (from Mexico City), inter-county (within each state), and interstate (between Mexico City and other states). Data was provided by the XI Population and Household Census of 1990." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Tax and expenditure limitations and the fiscal relationships between state and local governments

This paper uses comprehensive data on state and local tax and spending limitations for forty-nine states between 1976 and 1990 to estimate the effects of these limits on the fiscal relationships between state and local government. Results indicate that tax and spending limits on local governments are only partially effective in reducing revenues because political agents bypass limitations by transferring revenue reliance to unconstrained revenue sources, or because unconstrained levels of government take on additional revenue responsibilities. In particular, the empirical analysis demonstrates that binding local government fiscal constraints are associated with reductions in local revenues and increases in state aid to local governments. In contrast, state government limitations are related to reductions in both state and local own source revenues.     

The Use of Program Analysis in State Budgeting: Changes between 1990 and 1995

Reform literature has long championed the notion that program analysis should be utilized in budgetary decision making. This article reveals that, although the 1990s may have shown renewed interest in this line of reform nationally, a noticeable decline seems to have occurred in the conduct and use of program analysis by states. The article examines other changes in the period from 1990 to 1995, compares different executive-branch units with one another in their involvement with program analysis, and considers possible relationships between executive and legislative use of analysis Few linkages are found between the characteristics of states and their use of program analysis. The article concludes with a discussion of possible explanations for the changes between 1990 and 1995 and the implications of those changes.