中俄经贸合作中的政治因素与经贸合作水平评估——中俄之间是否存在“政热经冷”?

中俄经贸合作经历了探索磨合、快速平稳上升和深化巩固三个发展阶段,目前已经达到了很高的水平。那种认为中俄之间"政热经冷"的看法是对中俄经贸关系的误解。仅仅从绝对贸易额、经贸合作的经济溢出效应和分工关系特征来评价两国经贸关系,无法得出关于两国经贸合作的水平的科学结论。从相对规模和贸易紧密度的角度看,中俄经贸关系是我国对外经贸合作水平最高的双边经贸关系之一。经济总量、资源禀赋和经济结构特征是决定中俄经贸关系的主要变量。同时,政治关系是中俄经贸合作实现质量和数量两个维度高水平发展的关键因素。在世界大变局背景下,中俄两国关系的内生性、中美贸易摩擦和世界经济分工关系等外在冲击,都为中俄经贸合作向更宽广领域发展和向更高水平提升提供了广阔空间。两国高度的政治互信和有效的政府间合作机制有助于推动经贸合作迈向更高水平。     

中俄两国投资合作的现状与前景

14年弹指一挥间。自1991年苏联解体、新俄罗斯独立以来,中俄两国的经贸关系在两国最高领导人的直接支持和两国政府的大力推动下,以比以往更快的速度、并以前所未有的深度和广度向前迈进。尤其是2001年《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》的签订,不但奠定了两国战略协作伙伴关系的基础,而且因此使中俄两国的经贸关系在政治互信的前提下,进入了一个双边贸易大幅提升、相互投资逐步增加、科技合作领域进一步拓宽的全面发展的新阶段。一、中俄两国投资合作概述投资合作是中俄两国双边经贸关系进一步提升的重要基石。近年来,中俄两国相互投资的步伐明显加快…     

中国的俄罗斯东正教研究

自俄罗斯独立至今10余年来,中俄关系发展顺利。从互相视为“友好国家”(1992~1994)到“建设性伙伴关系”(1994~1996),再到“平等与信任的、面向21世纪的战略协作伙伴关系”(1996~2001),直至建立“睦邻友好与合作关系”(2001年至今),两国关系沿着良性轨道发展:政治互信度不断加强,两国边界问题已经得到彻底解决,经贸关系呈现出上升势头。目前,我国是俄罗斯的第四大贸易伙伴,俄罗斯是我国的第八大贸易伙伴。两国官方都认为,中俄关系处于历史上少有的良好状态。良好的政治和经贸环境是中俄两国科技、文化、教育交流与合作的重要基础和可靠保障…     

欧盟东扩与俄罗斯的对外经济贸易取向

在 90年代 ,通过东西欧经济一体化和对俄共同战略 ,欧盟已成功地把中东欧候选国和俄罗斯纳入欧盟的国际分工体系 ,并将最终把它们融入欧洲的政治和法律体系。欧盟东扩不仅使俄罗斯的对外贸易地理方向明显偏向西欧 ,而且使俄罗斯成为欧盟原材料和燃料的主要提供者。东扩后的欧盟将与俄罗斯拥有漫长的共同边界 ,从而使双方经贸关系更加密切 ,这无疑会成为 2 1世纪制约中俄贸易发展的一个重要因素。只有早日形成以产业内贸易为主体的贸易格局 ,中俄贸易才有可能取得较快的发展。     

土耳其与中亚国家的战略合作动向北大核心

近几年来,土耳其与中亚国家的关系持续升温,加强了政治、军事和经济等领域的战略合作。双方基于共同的利益诉求和战略关切,不断深化政治互信、加强军事合作、扩大经贸关系、对接发展战略、开展教育合作、推动媒体融合,从而巩固和全面提升了战略合作伙伴关系。从近期看,土耳其依托突厥国家组织,并积极转化俄乌冲突的不利影响,继续全方位拓展与中亚国家的双边、多边关系,将战略合作推向纵深,努力推进突厥语国家的一体化。其结果势必引起中亚地缘政治、经济格局的变化,并将会在一定程度上挤压俄罗斯在中亚的战略空间。     

改善投资环境和机制努力扩大中俄两国间的相互投资

近年来中俄战略协作伙伴关系顺利发展,政治互信不断加深,各个领域的合作均取得了可喜的成果。中俄经贸关系更是取得了新的突破,2004年中俄贸易跃上新的台阶,达到212亿美元,中俄相互投资及经济技术合作也取得了新进展。2004年两国领导人进一步确定了到2010年力争使双边贸易达到600亿~800亿美元以及到2020年中国对俄直接投资达到120亿美元的目标。这就要求未来双边经贸关系的发展要有新的重大突破,在制度创新、寻求新的贸易投资增长方式上都要有新的思路和新的作为。为此,我们就未来扩大中俄两国的投资问题阐述一下自己的观点。一、中俄两国间…     

加强中俄科技合作 促进我国西部开发——推荐30项中俄产业科技合作项目

加强对俄高科技产业合作已成为发展对俄经贸的一项重要战略内容、在可预见的未来．它将在中俄经贸关系中居先导地位。在我国实施西部大开发战略中．开展中俄产业科技大合作．必将有力地促进两国经济及经贸关系的大发展。为此．本文介绍了中国西部地区与俄罗斯的产业技术合作的历史与现实基础．提出了西部地区拟重点规划的３０项中俄产业科技合作项目以及西部大开发战略中的中俄产业科技合作方式。     

试析当今中俄美三角关系的若干特点

中俄美三角关系出现于20世纪70⁹0年代,至今仍然是存在的,只不过时代环境和条件、各国力量对比关系、影响范围和程度等都发生了变化而已。作为当今世界最复杂、最微妙、最重要的三角关系之一,中俄安全、政治关系好于经济关系,中美经济、金融关系好于政治关系。中俄政治互信强于中美。中美经济联系优于俄美。俄美安全关系胜于中美。中俄关系是"准同盟"关系,是大国关系的典范。中美关系是"非敌人"的关系,是大国关系的关键。即中俄高级政治关系好于中美,中美低级政治关系好于中俄。中美关系和中俄关系对于中国来说是最重要的两组大国关系。中国要实行双向、双线同盟战略,即在全面提升与俄罗斯的战略协作伙伴关系的同时,着力推动与美国的战略相向关系。即在高级政治方面,发展与俄的战略协作关系,在低级政治方面,发展与美的互利共赢关系。     

中俄两国经贸关系发展现状及其广阔前景

中俄两国是重要的经济贸易伙伴。在经受了2008年全球金融和经济危机冲击后,中俄两国经贸关系全面恢复和迅速发展。在中俄政府总理定期会晤制度框架下,建立了两国经济合作对话与协商机制。近年来,中俄贸易规模不断扩大,能源领域的合作日益深化,相互投资不断增加,地区间的经济贸易关系全面发展。全面提升贸易质量,扩大贸易规模,增加相互投资,深化能源合作,推动地区间和边境地区经贸合作,加强经济现代化领域合作,将成为中俄经贸关系发展的重要方向。     

俄罗斯与波罗矛盾、摩擦、协调的海三国：中的经贸关系

1990年立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚相继独立后,俄罗斯与三国间经贸关系的发展一直严重受制于相互间的政治关系。相互间经贸合作规模很小,合作形式单一,主要局限于商品贸易、过境运输等方面。近年来俄罗斯在发展与波罗的海三国经贸关系时,越来越强调经济与政治相结合的原则。俄罗斯与波罗的海三国经贸关系能否顺利发展,在很大程度上取决于俄罗斯与三国的政治关系走向。尽管如此,俄罗斯与波罗的海三国的经济合作对双方均具有重要意义。出于各自经济利益的需要,加之各种有利因素和不利因素的相互影响、互相制约,双方的经贸关系仍将在矛盾、摩擦和协调中向前发展。     

Inter-Korean relations and the roles of the US and of the EU

The North Korean nuclear standoff has escalated since North Korea let slip that it was developing nuclear weapons while James Kelly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was visiting Pyongyang in October 2002. The Bush administration has acknowledged that the United States will not discount a preemptive military strike on the suspected nuclear development facilities, and North Korea has stood firm against any pressure to halt its nuclear development from the international community. Dialogue and meetings for international cooperation among the major countries concerned, including Korea, the U.S., Japan and China, have been activated to resolve the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, especially after the U.S. pronounced an end to its war against Iraq in early May of this year. In the middle of the rapidly changing situation on the Korean peninsula, the inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation initiated by the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung administration and followed by the Roh Moo-hyun administrations Policy of Peace and Prosperity are not separable from the nuclear situation. This paper follows recent developments of inter-Korean relations, illustrates South Koreas stance on the issue and suggests the EUs role on the nuclear issue. This is a revised version of the paper presented at the Asia-EU Journalists Seminar organized by the Asia Europe Foundation and the Korea Press Foundation (KPF), held in Brussels, Belgium, May 22 2003. Financial support from the KPF is gratefully acknowledged.     

美苏政治文化差异与冷战起源

一国政治文化对国家对外决策有不可忽视的影响。美苏政治文化中相互冲突的部分对两国战后初期外交决策以及冷战爆发产生重要影响，国家间的政治文化沟通对处理国家间相互关系具有重要意义。     

Strengthen the Communication Among the Youth and Enhance the Mutual Understanding and Trust

AttheinvitationoftheInternationalInitiativesofChangeAssociationofJapanIICAJIaccompa-niedMr.LiYangCouncilMemberofChineseAs-sociationforInternationalUnderstandingCAFIUonthevisittoJapanfromJune10to18andat-tendedthe27thInternationalConferenceoftheInitiativeofChangeinOdawara.DuringourstaythereweseparatelymetwithTutomuHataAdvi-sortotheIICAJandformerPrimeMinisterofJapanSomaYukikaHonoraryPresidentofIICAJToruHashimotoPresidentofIICAJandAdvisortotheJapanMizuhoFinancialGroupandD…     

海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败

国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。     

The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible

In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only slowed down the process of rapprochement, but also increased EU concern. At a time when cooperation becomes a necessity rather than a choice, Libya is now down-spiralling into implosion at the levels of security, bureaucracy and economy, to the point where it cannot absorb the offers being made.     

抗击经济衰退：象和龙

由美国引发的经济危机已经席卷全球,无论是西方发达国家和地区如日本、欧盟,还是发展中国家如印度、中国,都已笼罩在全球经济衰退的阴影中。本文探讨作为正在崛起的亚洲大国——印度和中国,应采取怎样的措施遏制全球经济危机对本国经济造成更严重的伤害,以及印中两国如何借鉴对方在应对经济危机过程中采取的有效政策以尽快重新走上经济发展的正轨。     

China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not Chinais a responsible member of the organization and how compliantChina is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficultiesfaced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying toadjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theoryof compliance in international relations from the perspectivesof neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism,and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanismsused to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the UnitedStates and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanismand the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result ismixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China hasbeen but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has triedhard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, thoughmuch remains to be done. The most severe tests will come inthe next few years when China's financial and service sectorswill have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.     

Caught between Europe and the orient: Israel and the EMP

As the case of Transnistria illustrates, the politico-economic arrangements of de facto states are marked by a tendency to sacrifice the economy to political objectives. Despite non-recognition and limited local resources, these entities manage to make use of their ambiguous status and external support to sustain their claims to statehood. Yet, the priority of these claims over economic development, as well as strategies of survival in general can have unintended effects on unrecognised state-building projects, such as the emergence of a spin-off opposition or public disillusionment.     

Campaign Advertising and the Stimulation and Activation of the Authoritarian Personality

This research examines whether authoritarianism can be stimulated and activated by politicians. The traditional belief is that psychological traits are basically quasipermanent structures that consistently determine behavior, but newer research suggests that these traits can be stimulated. This research tests whether campaigns can stimulate traits with targeted messages. I do so by exposing subjects in an experiment to political television advertising that was designed to stimulate known correlates of authoritarianism, such as fear. The results show that authoritarianism is stimulated in treatment groups that watched advertising designed to invoke threat and the strong-father metaphor and the treatment effect is greater on conservatives. I also show that watching these commercials leads to an activation of authoritarianism that influences its predictive power over support for torture. This suggests that politicians can use emotional appeals to stimulate advantageous personality traits, and that these ads also influence the public's attitudes through activation.     

Globalization and the Reform of the International Financial and Monetary Systems

The outbreak of the global financial cdsis has called into question U.S.-style ＂financial capitalism.＂ Protectionism, currency multilateralism, decentralization of financial decision-making power and the nationalism of resources are gaining ground. The emerging economies are on the rise. The world power order is becoming multi-polar. Relations between countries are growing more diverse. The global governance model is undergoing fundamental changes. Global governance mechanisms, which are more representative and reflective of the diverse interests （such as the G20 and the UN climate change conference）, along with a reform of the international monetary system, will also help shape the future world order.