试析安倍第二次内阁期间日本与中东关系

安倍第二次执政以后,高度重视与中东的关系,经常出访中东地区。频繁地访问中东,说明了日本对中东地区的高度重视、日本与中东关系的密切和深厚。安倍第二次内阁期间,日本与中东关系的主要内容包括:关注中东和平问题解决、政治与安全保障问题、能源合作、地区与全球等领域的协调与合作。日本深化与中东关系的动因有:确保能源安全、规避地缘政治风险、彰显日本大国影响力、展示文化教育等软实力、奉行平衡外交、居间调停等。鉴于日本自身与地区和国际形势等多种复杂因素,今后继续深化与中东的关系,日本还面临着不少困难与挑战。     

A crude marriage: Iraq,Turkey, and the Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline

Since the discovery of oil at Kirkuk in northern Iraq, oil has shaped relations between Iraq and Turkey, as the former needed markets and export routes to the Mediterranean and the latter reliable sources of supply. This article examines the origins of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline from northern Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, charting the period of Iraqi–Turkish economic rapprochement in the 1960s to the construction of the pipeline in the 1970s. It also seeks to add to our collective understanding of why transnational oil pipelines in the Middle East succeed or fail by examining the pipeline's operational record.     

Imperial classifications and anti-colonial resistance in North Africa

In reviewing the books of Mathilde von Bülow (2016), Liat Kozma (2017), and Odile Moreau and Stuart Schaar (2016), this review article makes a series of important observations on trans—Mediterranean relations. Along with the longevity of Europe's concerns over migration and migrants from North Africa and the wider Middle East, and the parallels between France and Britain's treatment of their colonised populations and domestic minorities, it notes the opportunities for anti-colonial resistance generated by the imperial powers' classification of individuals, groups and organisations operating in and out of their respective Mediterranean territories.     

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

The Foundation of the Saint-Joseph University of Beirut: The teaching of the maronites by the Second Jesuit Mission in the levant

The purpose of this article is to examine the relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia from the time of King Faisal's rise to power until President Nasser's death, via various events that shaped the Middle East. The article will also examine the main points of disagreement between the two countries, as well as the threat to the stability of the Saudi regime posed by the Egyptian President during those years. Finally, the research will examine the influence of President Nasser's death on Saudi–Egyptian relations and on the Middle East in general.     

Security and Peace in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific

Abstract

Two recent books make significant contributions to the scholarly literature both in East Asian security studies and in international relations theory more generally. While developing international relations theory by drawing from the non-Western experiences of East Asia, these books complement the existing international relations theory that has been criticized for being overly West-centric. The books also develop some interesting East Asian, neopragmatic ideas on the “theory of theory” in international relations. These ideas have a potential of not only changing our answers to questions about East Asian security but also reformulating the questions we ask in our investigation of international security issues.     

The Demise of the Kurdish Emirates: The Impact of Ottoman Reforms and International Relations on Kurdistan during the First Half of the Nineteenth Century

Since the West's very early flirtations with the modern Near East, and especially in the past 100 years of East–West relations, there has been considerable difficulty in understanding and defining the Middle East, the Arab world, pan-Arabism, Arab nationalism, and Middle Eastern identities in general. The Western impulse of conflating national identity with language, state, and ethnicity – often subsuming Arabic language into Arab ethnicity – has contributed to this misunderstanding and misreading of the region. For, while the Middle East can be accurately referred to by way of the generic ‘Arab world’ label, the appellation itself is a misleading oversimplification that conceals an inherent diversity and multiplicity of Middle Eastern cultures, ethnicities, languages, and nationalities. And while there is certainly a dominant Arab ethnos, there are also significant numbers of Middle Eastern peoples and nationalities with historical memories and ethno-cultural bonds that challenge the dominant Arabist paradigm. This article proposes a new reading of modern Middle Eastern history and attempts to bring back to the foreground of Middle East Studies the issue of language as a key factor in shaping (and misshaping) the region, with the hope of rediscovering a broader, more honest, and less ideologically tainted discussion on the Middle East and Middle Eastern identities.     

中国—日本—东盟三角关系结构变化与东亚一体化前景

中国、日本和东盟是决定东亚一体化发展前景的三种主要力量;它们之间关系的发展变化,在一定程度上决定和制约着未来东亚一体化的模式选择.本文试图运用国际政治理论中传统的战略三角关系分析方法,探讨中国-日本-东盟三角关系的四种可能结构,从而展望在不同的结构下东亚一体化可能出现的四种模式.     

The Return of Great-Power Competition to the Middle East: A Two-Level Game

Great-power competition has once again assumed primacy in the international arena. Facing a rising China and a resurgent Russia, the United States formally reoriented its National Security Strategy in 2017 to place more emphasis on the return of great-power politics and global multipolarity. With the resumption of such competition, the Middle East has rightfully been noted as a regional theater where Russia and China have sought to exploit US policy blunders and retrenchment (real or perceived) to push for increased regional multipolarity. Although the Middle East has been recognized as a prime theater for great-power competition, the approaches adopted by most existing studies are primarily one-sided: they examine great-power competition in the region from the outside, stressing how global powers are manipulating affairs in the Middle East in order to advance their own interests. Often missing from this conversation is how external engagement in the Middle East is being exploited and shaped by regional powers and endogenous developments. This study seeks to fill this gap by using the conceptual lens of omnialignment to examine how regional powers are manipulating the return of great-power competition to advance their own strategic imperatives, both at home and abroad.     

Evolving structure of collective bargaining in Turkey (1990–2005)

ABSTRACT

Following the June 1967 Six-Day War, the Soviet Union and Britain invested significant efforts in rehabilitating their relations with the Arab countries, notably Egypt. While both supported the withdrawal of Israel from the Arab-occupied territories, the two countries differed over the nature of the settlement. Still, at the UN Security Council, the Soviet Union supported the British draft resolution for solving the Middle East conflict. Cold War interests and competition over influence in the Middle East, however, led the Soviets to launch a public campaign against British policy in the Middle East and prevented the two countries from joining efforts to bring about a breakthrough in the Arab–Israeli conflict.     

东亚经济一体化:国外的视角

进入新世纪以来,作为一种介于全球主义和民族主义之间的新地区主义思潮,对传统的国际政治经济与国际关系研究提出了新的挑战,引起国际关系理论界的研究兴趣。综合分析国外学者对东亚经济一体化的研究成果,笔者认为,国外学者主要从一体化的动因、推进模式、发展前景和大国关系等四个视角对东亚经济一体化进行研究探讨,这对我国理论界进一步研究东亚经济一体化问题有一定借鉴和促进作用。     

A Dangerous Axis: The ‘Bulgarian Müftü’, the Turkish Opposition and the Ankara Government, 1928–36

In June 1967, when the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact partners decided to break off diplomatic relations with Israel following the outbreak of the Six Day War, it came as a surprise to many that Romania refused to do the same. This paper investigates previously unpublished documents in order to retrace the decision-making process in Bucharest and offer a rational answer to the question: why did Romania choose to ignore Moscow's decision? Was it a demonstration of support for Israel as it appeared at the time and, if so, what were the reasons behind it? Archival insight demonstrates that Romania's decision to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel can best be understood in the general framework of its relations with Moscow. Striving to gain autonomy in the Communist bloc and fight off Soviet domination, Romanian decision-makers preferred to engage in their own analysis of the events in the Middle East before assuming one decision or another. Their conclusions led them to believe that Moscow's policy had been adventurous and to break relations with Israel would have implied confirmation and reinforcement of Moscow's role in the Middle East.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article: Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East , by Geoffrey Kemp and Robert Harkavy. Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE: Challenges of Security , by Anthony H. Cordesman. Kuwait: Recovery and Security after the Gulf War , by Anthony H. Cordesman. U.S. Forces in the Middle East: Resources and Capabilities , by Anthony H. Cordesman. Security Challenges in the Mediterranean Region , edited by Roberto Aliboni, George Joffé, and Tim Niblock. War in the Gulf, 1990-91: The Iraq-Kuwait Conflict and Its Implications , by Majid Khadduri and Edmund Ghareeb. Political Islam: Revolution, Radicalism, or Reform? Edited by John L. Esposito. The Price of Wealth: Economies and Institutions in the Middle East , by Kiren Aziz Chaudhry. Rethinking Islam: Common Questions, Uncommon Answers , by Mohammed Arkoun; translated and edited by Robert D. Lee. A Lebanon Defied: Musa al-Sadr and the Shi'a Community , by Majed Halawi. Jewish Power: Inside the American Jewish Establishment , by J.J. Goldberg.     

Japanese Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Balancing Economy and Security

Abstract

Although the quest for oil has long been a central concern for resource-poor Japan, its foreign policy in the Middle East does not simply reflect a mercantilist interest in the region's resources. Its desire to remain close to the United States during the North Korea crisis and its nascent competition with China are also critical factors in Japan's Middle East policy. However, Japan lacks an integrated strategy toward the Middle East and as a result the various components of its policy are not always compatible. Hence, while Japan has firmly backed the Bush administration's Iraq policies, and begun discussing a possible free-trade agreement with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it has also, until quite recently, simultaneously pursued closer relations with Iran. In lieu of coherent regional strategy, Japan instead possesses a clearly prioritized sense of its interests in the region.     

Japan and the Middle East

Hirokazu Oikawa, a correspondent in Israel for Jiji News for nearly 20 years and former lecturer and fellow at Hebrew University, discusses the history of relations between Japan and the Middle East and shows how Japan's relative ignorance of the region has affected some crucial diplomatic and domestic policy decisions. He explains that potential misperceptions about the Middle East continue among Japanese policymakers, especially in the areas of energy policy and official‐development aid (ODA). Oikawa is currently a professor at Kyorin University in Tokyo.     

美国的世界秩序观与东亚国际体系的演变(1900-1945)(Ⅰ)

本文从美国的国际秩序观入手,通过考察20世纪上半期东亚国际体系的演变,尝试为这一时期的东亚国际关系建立一个多国的、宏观的分析框架。作者认为:美国从世纪之交就开始谋求在东亚建立一个不同于欧洲权力政治的新的国际秩序,这是美国从建国之初就萌生的改造国际秩序思想的延续;20世纪上半期东亚国际关系的演变过程是美国不断推行和实施其国际秩序思想的过程,美国新的国际秩序思想集中体现在华盛顿体系的建立上;从30年代初直至二战结束,东亚国际关系的演变可以被视为美国捍卫、中国认同、日本挑战华盛顿体系的过程;战后初期美国试图建立的东亚国际秩序不过是华盛顿体系的修正版;华盛顿体系并非仅仅是帝国主义的工具,相反在很多方面有助于中国国家利益的维护。     

欧盟参与中东和平进程:动因、角色与困境

出于地缘政治、经济、安全、移民、历史等方面的原因,同时受欧盟扩大其国际影响力的动机驱使,欧盟谋求在中东和平进程中扮演重要角色,并有意同美国的中东政策拉开距离。虽然中东和平进程是欧盟共同外交与安全政策取得成效最多的领域之一,但由于欧盟的共同外交与安全政策一直面临期望-能力差距的困境,欧盟在中东和平进程中更多的是在经济援助上发挥主导作用,政治进程仍被美国主导。欧盟想要在国际政治舞台上扮演一个强有力的国际行为体角色,需要突破自身在外交与安全领域所面临的期望-能力差距的困境。本文从地缘政治理论出发,基于国际行为体属性和期望-能力差距两个分析概念,对欧盟参与中东和平进程的动因、角色与困境作一分析。     

From “Endemically Pro‐Israel” to Unsympathetic: Australia's Middle East Policy, 1967–1972

The hardening of Australian Middle East policy toward Israel in the early 1970s is often attributed to the election of Gough Whitlam as Prime Minister. Whitlam's December 1972 victory may well have opened a new, problematic chapter. But the evidence suggests that a deterioration in Australia‐Israel relations occurred gradually in the aftermath of the 1967 Six Day War. This deterioration reflected changes in Australia's political leadership and change at the top of the Department of External Affairs (renamed Foreign Affairs in 1970). Individual decision‐makers such as Whitlam did play a significant role in determining Australian Middle East policy. As Prime Minister, Sir John Gorton was willing to put aside advice from External Affairs not to antagonise and risk disrupting trade relations with Arab states, and to offer heartfelt support for Israel. His successor Sir William McMahon vacillated under opposing influences of a department determined to secure Australia's trade interests on the one hand, and Australian Jewish leaders and Israel's envoys in Australia on the other. With the support of the Australian Jewish community, Israel sought to influence Australian political leaders — especially within the ALP — from turning away from Israel.     

Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with Israel: the national security imperatives

The purpose of this article is to examine the evolution of Israel's relations with Saudi Arabia since the establishment of the Jewish state in 1948. The author explains how the major events in the Middle East affected Saudi Arabia's foreign policy orientation. It shows how Saudi Arabia's policy toward Israel was affected by the deterioration in Saudi-Egyptian relations, by its quest for security in the Arabian Gulf region and by its aspiration to hegemony in the Middle East. The author argues that Saudi Arabia's policy toward Israel remained far less hostile than that of the Arab states surrounding Israel. In addition, it argues that it was not until 1973 that Saudi Arabia became seriously involved in the attempt to pressure Israel to withdraw from the territories it occupied in the Six-Day War. The author concludes by showing that neither Saudi Arabia's acquisition of the intelligence-gathering AWACS aircraft, nor Israel's invasion of Lebanon or the massacre of Palestinians in the refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila had a serious impact on the bilateral relations, and that it was not until the emergence of the Iranian nuclear threat that Saudi Arabia's relations with Israel began to improve.     

Nuclear proliferation: Is the Middle East next?

The nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan in May 1998 have had monumental ramifications for the international community, says Nabil Fahmy, Ambassador of Egypt to Japan. The tests have forced the world to realize that a static nuclear nonproliferation regime cannot survive the test of time, but must be regularly consolidated and built upon by all. In the context of the Middle East, Fahmy emphasizes the need to maintain parity in security issues, and the threat of nuclear proliferation in the region in the wake of the tests. How the international community responds to these tests will be a crucial factor in determining the sequence of events that will follow in the Middle East. If they do not provide impetus for global and regional disarmament, then the risk exists that countries in the region will be tempted, or even compelled, to explore the possibility of going nuclear.