Syria,Saudi Arabia,the U.A.E. and Qatar: the ‘sectarianization’ of the Syrian conflict and undermining of democratization in the region

Understanding the Syrian conflict only in terms of sectarian politics amounts to dismissing a very modern effort at emancipation within the context of the country’s populace fighting for its civil, political and economic rights, and in the process robs Syrians of their agency and diminishes their humanity. A closer look at events and political alignments in Syria reveals a more complex picture better understood through the lens of regimes’ desire to counteract the dissident and reformist dynamics that emerged with the Arab Spring. And while this paper is most certainly not minimizing the fact that the sectarian discourse and animosity, once activated, acquired its own dynamic, it underlines that this is not a case of so-called ancient sectarian rivalries emerging unprompted and of their own accord. As a result, the Syrian crisis and the regional ramifications of it can be appreciated as not simply identity politics writ large, but as an example of the authoritarian resilience paradigm in action. In making these arguments, this paper examines the interplay of the domestic and regional policies of three actors involved directly in the Syrian conflict: the Syrian regime, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. (considered as a unitary actor within the context of the Syrian crisis), and Qatar.     

The Negotiated Desecuritization Of Turkey in Saudi Foreign Policy

Saudi-Turkey relations hit one of their lowest points due to the Arab uprisings and the regional shock of the Gulf crisis. The tension resulted from, and in turn exacerbated, a process of securitization of Saudi discourse, whereby officials labeled Turkey as a threat. But after three and a half years of the Gulf crisis, the Al-Ula accords allowed reconciliation among the regional states and opened the way for the construction of new understandings based on diplomacy, tolerance of differences on regional and domestic security, and respect of sovereignty. This spurred Saudi policy makers to de-securitize their discourse concerning Turkey—that is, to talk of it not as a threat, but as a potential partner. This process continues to develop gradually through cooperation on economics and investment, but it has required time to re-establish confidence among Saudi decision makers. This article analyzes the discourses of Saudi leaders and policy makers and shows how they affected Saudi Arabia's relations with Turkey, both negatively and positively.     

The Iraq treaty, 1930

India's relations with the Gulf countries started to flourish in the 1990s after India succeeded in de-hyphenating Pakistan from its policy toward the Gulf. Though Pakistan remained a factor as it continued to raise Kashmir and internal situation in India at multilateral forums such as OIC to evoke anti-India sentiments, it did not remain an underlying factor in as was the case during the Cold War era. In the contemporary dynamics, when India-Gulf relations are progressing toward strategic partnerships, Pakistan has re-emerged as a factor but its nature has changed. As highlighted in the joint statements issued during the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visits to the Gulf countries since May 2014, India can now put pressure on Pakistan by highlighting its policy of sponsoring terrorism. This was evident when the Arab Gulf countries condemned the Pathankot (January 2016) and Uri (September 2016) terrorist attacks. India's relations with the Arab Gulf and other Middle Eastern countries are independent of their engagements with Pakistan and India-Pakistan tension, but New Delhi has stepped up efforts to raise the issue of cross-border terrorism and use of religion to incite terror activities against India during its engagements with these countries. It underlines the growing convergence between India and Arab Gulf countries over regional issues and the ability of India to isolate Pakistan over issues related to terrorism.     

GULF STATES' POLICY TOWARDS SYRIAN REFUGEES: CHARITY BEFORE HOSPITALITY

The regional turmoil in the Middle East since December 2010 has provided researchers with many topics for research. Despite a relatively large number of studies in recent years, none of them deal with one of the central questions – namely, the attitude of the Gulf States toward the misery of the Syrian refugees. While more than six million Syrians fled their homeland and became refugees, 1.5 million in Europe, few, if any, succeeded in relocating to the Gulf States.

This paper endeavors to explore the Gulf States' policy toward Arab (mostly Syrian) refugees. The major finding is that GCC members prefer to grant financial support to refugees outside of the Gulf region (this is justified as charity – Zakat) instead of hosting refugees. The combination of a fragile demographic structure, fear of political and social instability, and constant concern about infiltration by terrorists under the guise of refugees are the main reasons for the policy of closing the gates entirely to the refugees. These concerns also indicate that the idea of the nation state prevails over pan-Arab nationalism.     

The ‘Arab Uprising’, Islamists and Democratization

This article surveys political activities of selected Islamists in three Arab countries in the Mediterranean region: Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco. Each is notable for recent growth in Islamist political activity in the context of democratization (Tunisia, Egypt) and political liberalization (Morocco). Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco are undergoing political changes consequent to the recent ‘Arab uprising’. The ‘Arab uprising’ involved country-specific yet variable outbursts of popular political anger, although not necessarily with a clear and consistent democratizing focus. Generally, protests focused on interrelated political and socio-economic demands, including: greater ‘freedoms’, improved human rights, better social justice and economic progress, especially more jobs for millions of unemployed youths. The aim of the article is to explain recent developments in relation to the ‘Arab uprising’ in three Mediterranean Arab countries – Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco. The purpose is to complement the individual foci on these countries in subsequent papers in this special issue by providing a thematic overview and to locate the activities of Islamist entities in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco in comparative context.     

The Nakba in Palestinian Memory in Israel

Changes in the international, regional and domestic arenas in the late 1990s resulted in discursive change with regard to interpretation of the Al Nakba in the political and civil societies of the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel. Apart from fuelling a discursive challenge to the Israeli dominant discourse about the 1948 events, this reinterpretation allowed the Palestinian Arab citizens to discuss the historical roots of the problems they experienced within the Israeli political and civil societal spheres. This article analyses the nature and significance of discursive change of the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel on the Nakba by referring to its impact on their identity politics as well as their political and civil societal activities.     

Israel,the Arab Spring,and the unfolding regional order in the Middle East: a strategic assessment

Since 2011, geo-strategic interactions have exerted pressure on various political communities. In particular, uncertainty over the foreign policy intentions of new leadership elites and the nature of the unfolding regional security system in the Middle East have impacted the strategic questions Israel must answer: how can Israel rationally assess the new environment? What foreign policy approach would best serve Israel’s distinct national interests? Using insights from the levels-of-analysis framework and from the realist theory of International Relations, this article aims to explore Israel’s reading of recent regional developments and its attitudes and behaviours towards the attendant and emerging strategic challenges. The analysis reveals that the Arab Spring uprisings exacerbated the already anarchic Middle East environment, aggravating mistrust and antagonism in Israel. The urgency of the attraction of protectionism and militarism in Israel was an expression of the realist approach to Israel’s primary strategic consolidation. With time, the regional dynamic has evolved into a more predictable—but still complex—structure than it was during its early phase (2010–2013). Although there have been signs of potential regional political eruptions, other developments have promoted continuity in the Middle East, which plays to Israel’s strategic advantage.     

Peace and security concerns in the Niger Delta: a persisting struggle for autonomy and self-determination

This article argues that neither the amnesty granted the militants nor the election of Goodluck Jonathan as President of Nigeria will be sufficient to resolve the conflict in the Niger Delta as the crisis in the Niger Delta is an offshoot of some of the contradictions in the Nigerian federal structure, particularly the regional and power imbalance in the Constitution of 1960. Therefore, no matter how conceived, the Niger Delta crisis remains more fundamentally constitutional and political than socio-economic or environmental. Accordingly, what the paper attempts to address is the deliberate attempt by the Nigerian state to diminish the constitutional and political aspects of the crisis, while it creates the impression that the root of the problem of the Niger Delta is neglect and inequitable distribution of national resources by the federal government. The paper brings to the fore the constitutional and the political aspects which have underpinned the Niger Delta crisis since the 1950s and 1960s and concludes that any resolution of the crisis short of those imperatives will not endure.     

Party dualities: Where does political Islam go now?

One of the unusual features of the recent emergence of moderate Sunni Islamist political parties onto the formal political scene in the Arab world as a result of the Arab Awakening is that they nearly always emerge as elements in political dualities. Thus the party – a political movement – is wedded to a social movement and, sometimes, to a trade union as well. In addition, the social movement usually predates its parallel political movement. Furthermore, this structural duality seems to be confined to the Sunni world and often seems to be associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The question then is precisely why this dual structure has been generalized within the political arena now colonized by moderate Sunni political Islam; is it a consequence of formal legal constraints upon such movements or does it respond to their internal dynamics? A further question raises the issue of why these dualities are not replicated within the Shi’a context or amongst secular political movements. And, finally, have they been paralleled amongst political movements arising from different religious traditions and what are the likely outcomes?     

Migrants' strategies of coping and patterns of accommodation in the oil‐rich Gulf societies: evidence from the UAE

This paper presents an overview of ethnographic documentation of the foreign migrants’ strategies and patterns of accommodation in the oil‐rich Arab Gulf socieites. Documentary evidence is drawn from the UAE in the form of short case studies of families and individuals of both Arab and Asian migrant groups as well as field observations. The evidence is presented as an illustration of similar processes taking place across the Gulf. The migrants investigated represent low‐income workers and a few middle‐income technicians and professionals. Globalization is used as a general guiding theoretical framework to provide integration and coherence to the modes of presentation and explanation of the ethnographic material. Particular attention is given to the differing political economics of the labour‐receiving and labour‐sending countries in order to account for the prevalence of certain strategies of coping among migrants, and also to explain the slight variations found among Arab and Asian migrants.     

Asia’s Conservative Moment: Understanding the Rise of the Right

ABSTRACT

Recent scholarship has identified a new era of post-democracy or democratic crisis in the West, characterised by the increasing resort to authoritarian measures and the erosion of mechanisms such as representative parties and unions that link citizens and social forces with the political process. Conservative political movements, right-wing governments and populism have also emerged in the democratic states of the Asia-Pacific. The existing literature, with its focus on the crisis of social democratic institutions and forms of representative politics, provides inadequate frameworks for explaining these trends in the region. This article suggests that a better way of understanding the emergence of these new forms of political regime in Asia is to locate the origins of democratic crises in processes of global capitalist transformation and political incorporation and disincorporation. The articles in this special issue show that previously dominant modes of incorporation are fracturing under the conditions of neo-liberal capitalist transformation. In the wake of this fracturing, political elites have struggled to created new forms of political incorporation. This has inadvertently resulted in the sharpening of the conditions that give rise to political crisis. The political responses to crises have predominantly been conservative and have led to attempts to restructure the state to limit dissent and electoral competition.     

Politics,Economics and Saudi Military Intervention in Bahrain

The March 14, 2011 Saudi military intervention in Bahrain to suppress pro-democracy uprisings created serious regional and global concerns. Political analysts and commentators have interpreted the Saudi intervention primarily in terms of domestic and regional political and strategic dynamics. This paper analyses the intervention issue from both political and economic perspectives and argues that the Saudi decision to intervene in Bahrain to trample the democratic rights of common Bahrainis was no less, if not more, influenced by economic factors than political and strategic calculations. Moreover, similar Saudi interventions in other Gulf Cooperation Council countries remain a reality if the status quo is seriously threatened by any internal pro-democracy forces, with or without external support.     

Muslim Women in Law and Society. Annotated Translation of al-Tāhir al-Haddād's Imra'tunā fi'l-shari'a wa'l-mujtama‘

The Arab Gulf states have systematically worked to tighten their cooperation in various fields. However, progress toward increased defence collaboration continues to be slow due to a number of factors including fears of angering neighbouring countries, particularly Iran; protecting state sovereignty; and reliance on other forms of defence, such as national militaries and foreign allies. This article traces the ups and downs of defence cooperation between the Arab Gulf nations, focusing on the establishment of the GCC and the joint Peninsula Shield Force, crucial milestones in Arab Gulf security coordination. A timeline of increased and decreased cooperation is presented, including during the two Gulf wars, along with the manner in which the joint force has been employed, its associated concerns, and the potential future for defence collaboration.     

Security in the Gulf: The View from Oman

For a long time, analysts of the Middle East have justifiably focused their attention on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, three Gulf states holding massive hydrocarbon deposits and financial resources. Their leaders are the main “movers and shakers” of regional affairs and enjoy tremendous influence on the international scene. Still, other Gulf states play significant roles in shaping the Middle East's economic and strategic landscape. Such is the case with Oman, which has been a major US ally in most regional crises and has played a crucial role in mediating Gulf conflicts. This article, based on several visits to the sultanate and interviews with senior officials, analyzes the domestic, regional, and international dynamics being navigated by Sultan Haitham bin Tarik, who succeeded Sultan Qaboos bin Said in January 2020. The argument is that the new Omani leader is likely to follow the domestic and foreign policies of his predecessor, with minor adjustments. Oman may witness major changes when Crown Prince Theyazin succeeds his father. For now, given the crucial role Muscat plays in mediating regional conflicts, the sultanate expects more attention from its counterparts in Washington.     

GCC‐EU political cooperation: myth or reality?

Arab hopes of an emerging multipolar international system after the Cold War were immediately dashed by the second Gulf War. The US proved to be the indispensable guarantor of security, especially for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Nevertheless, the EU and the GCC had engaged in a successful relationship since their formal cooperation agreement in 1988. The following article gives an insight into the priorities of both. Furthermore, it asks whether the numerous political declarations of the EU‐GCC Joint Council are more compensation for stalemate in the free trade negotiations than the expression of real political ambition, with the GCC mainly interested in using the EU as an element of counterbalance and the EU primarily concerned with safe energy supplies. Finally, the article examines the probability of continuing European junior partnership with the US or a more equal role in the Gulf area—either through European initiative or an increasing American reluctance to make sacrifices in order to secure the oil flow to European economic competitors.     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

Nasser’s Educators and Agitators across al-Watan al-‘Arabi: Tracing the Foreign Policy Importance of Egyptian Regional Migration, 1952-1967

The Egyptian state’s policy of dispatching trained Egyptian professionals, primarily educational staff, across the Arab world rarely features in analyses of Egypt’s foreign policy under Gamal Abdel Nasser. This article relies primarily on newly declassified material from the British Foreign Office archives, unpublished reports from the Egyptian Ministry of Education, and an analysis of related articles in three main Egyptian newspapers (al-Ahram, al-Akhbar, al-Jumhuriya) in order to provide a detailed reconstruction of regional migration’s importance for Egyptian foreign policy. It debunks the conventional wisdom that Egyptian migration became a socio-political issue only in the post-1973 era, arguing that the Nasserite regime developed a governmental policy that allowed, and encouraged, Egyptians’ political activism in Libya, Syria, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf according to state foreign policy priorities in the 1952-1967 period. By presenting a cache of archival material in analytical and critical context, this article offers concrete evidence of how migration buttressed Egypt’s regional ambitions under Gamal Abdel Nasser.     

Our Ancestors,Our Heroes: Saudi Tribal Campaigns to Suppress Historical Docudramas

Scholars of Arab media have explored key aspects of Gulf-Levant media integration in the wake of the privatisation of Arab media over the past several decades. Their studies tend to characterise the controversies that arise from this integration in terms of the relative influence of Islamist or religious values on producers and consumers. Yet behind these Gulf-Levant tensions, this article will argue, there is also a different cultural logic at work, one that engages other dimensions of culture apart from the religious, and concerns the relationship between documentation and authority in a once predominantly nomadic society. This logic was brought to the fore over the Syrian-produced, Gulf-financed Ramadan television series, Finjān al-Damm (‘Cup of Blood’). The Finjān al-Damm controversy speaks to a number of concerns that are crucial for understanding social and political life in the Arabian Peninsula today. These include the nature of censorship in Saudi Arabia, the nature of citizen activism in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, and the Saudi state's attitude towards tribalism. Underlying these concerns, the Finjān al-Damm story underscores a new consciousness about the relationship between documentation and authority in societies transitioning from predominantly oral to textual cultures.     

Determinants of political instability across Arab Spring countries

This paper investigates the determinants of political instability across Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with special attention to the Arab Spring-affected region. The yearly data-set covers 19 countries in the MENA region for the period 1991–2014. The study uses pooled ordinary least square (OLS), fixed effect and random effect approaches. Our most robust result indicates that political instability in the region is very sensitive to exogenous food price shocks. Youth unemployment and regime durability are also strong predictors of unrest. The frustrated educated youth explanation of the Arab Spring is, however, not borne out by our study. The connection between the presence of democratic institutions and political unrest is more complex. Our results confirm other studies which find that more democracy leads to less unrest. On the other hand, our focused study of five Arab Spring countries and Egypt finds the reverse. Our results are sensitive to the ways in which the variables are defined. It is always important to use alternative empirical specifications when undertaking econometric investigations of political processes.     

The irreversibility of history: the case of the Ukrainian crisis (2013–2015)

Abstract

Today’s Ukraine figures as the land of irreconcilable differences, on the verge of disintegrating into different parts. Issues regarding nation-building processes, national identity types within the main ethnic communities, as well as regional political preferences have all become critical. Thus, this paper examines how enduring regional political preferences, embedded in a fragmented and porous national identity framework, have been serving as destabilizing factors in the eastern part of the country. The conclusions offer an understanding of the 2013–2015 crisis, while they can also be extrapolated to other regions of the ex-Soviet space.