How Does Regulation Affect the Risk Taking of Banks? A U.S. and Canadian Perspective

This historical study utilizes annual insured bank data from 1936 through 1989 to empirically evaluate the impact of bank regulation on bank risk taking in a cross-country comparison of the United States and Canada. Risk is hypothesized to be determined, in part, by the regulatory environment in which a bank operates. The findings of this analysis contributes to the contemporary deregulation policy debate, since both branch banking restrictions and deposit insurance variables are found to be detrimental to bank stability. More specifically, these results support the 1994 Riegle–Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act, which removed legislative barriers to interstate branching. These results also confirm expectations that deposit insurance increases risk taking and supports the 1991 mandate by regulators that risk-based deposit insurance be created. Further, these findings support the 1988 Basel Accord to standardize bank capital requirements internationally and to link these standards to bank risk taking.     

The Role of Market-Value Accounting in Reducing Potential Taxpayer Subsidies: The Case of Deposit Insurance

The federal deposit insurance program required billions of dollars in taxpayer subsidies in recent years. Unless reforms are initiated soon, the program will continue to incur losses and will likely sizeable require subsidies in the future. Some of the blame for the past losses of the deposit insurance program has been attributed to the regulatory discretion and lack of information on the potential losses arising from the exercise of regulatory discretion. It is often argued that market-value accounting can be an effective check on regulatory discretion and can minimize the future costs of the program to the taxpayers. This study examines the role market-value accounting can play in reducing the potential taxpayer subsidies to the program. It examines the relationship between accounting system and losses to the deposit insurance program, discusses the problems in implementing the market-value accounting, and shows how market-value accounting can improve the effectiveness of the system of public regulation and reduce the adverse financial consequences of regulatory discretion. While the direct focus of the article is on the deposit insurance reform, the discussion and the arguments have applicability to improving the regulatory effectiveness of other public agencies and programs.     

The Savings and Loan Debacle and Erosion of the Dual System of Bank Regulation

The crisis in the banking and thrift industries is catalyzinga shift in the traditional system of dual state-federal bankregulation toward the federal government and away from the states.Erosion in this system has been evident for the past decadedue to actions of the Congress, federal regulators, and thejudiciary. The dual system has two sets of flaws. One is regulatorycompetition that encourages weak monitoring of financial institutionsby states. The other is created by the "moral hazard" of thecurrent system of federal deposit insurance. There are two pathsto reform. One is continued erosion of the power of the states.The alternative is to provide incentives that reinforce thedual system of regulation and deter the sources of "moral hazard."     

Central Bank Independence and Deflation

Deflation presents special challenges to central banking, as traditional monetary policy tools are highly inefficient in dealing with deflationary pressures. In this case, the Federal Reserve must use alternative monetary policy tools that are specially designed to artificially boost asset prices through “printing press” or currency manipulation. Unfortunately, these alternative monetary policy tools create unintended political, geopolitical, and social consequences that overreach into the direct responsibilities of other branches of government. Thus, the government must be able to influence Federal Open Market Committee decisions that potentially affect (or contradict) U.S. foreign policy, U.S. trade policy, U.S. dollar policy, and deliberate domestic/global wealth distribution policies.     

When do autonomous banking regulators promote stability?

Can autonomous banking regulatory agencies reduce the odds that a country will suffer a crippling banking crisis? We investigate the impact that agencies charged with banking regulation and prudential supervision can have on financial stability in the banking sector. We argue that the potential benefits of autonomy are hard to realise because banking regulators face incentives to shirk in their mandate to secure banking stability. These incentives are strongest in political systems with high numbers of veto players, where the autonomy of a banking agency is difficult to undo even if the agency is derelict in promoting banking sector stability. We test an implication of this argument, namely, that the probability of bank crisis onset should diminish with the level of autonomy of the banking agency, but only in polities with low numbers of veto points. We base our analysis of this conditional hypothesis on an original dataset of 79 countries observed between 1971 and 2009 that captures the degree of autonomy of banking agencies from political principals. Our findings confirm that the impact of banking agency autonomy on the risk of bank crisis onset is conditional on the political structure in which the agency is embedded.     

Explaining variation and change in supervisory confidentiality in the European Union

Abstract

Some European Union member states’ financial regulators choose to make some of the data they routinely collect on individual banks publicly available. Others treat this data as confidential. What explains this difference? This paper considers the possible effects of crises, path-dependent legal institutions, and the design of deposit insurance schemes. At the national level, the paper focuses on contrasting German and Dutch cases. After the recent economic crisis, the Dutch released more data while the German authorities maintained strict confidentiality rules. The design of deposit insurance schemes provides a key reason why the level of secrecy varies, with the Dutch move from an ex post to an ex ante scheme where the government served as the ultimate backstop leading to questions about the accounts of individual banks while the German system favoured continued secrecy. The paper also describes the level of transparency at the EU level. Multilevel legal restrictions and bureaucratic capacity tilt EU banking union practices towards member states that treat financial supervisory data as confidential.     

Banking, interest intermediation and political power

Abstract. This article seeks to introduce the concept of political power more explicitly into the discussion of the organizational attributes of societal interests. In pursuit of this objective, it defines a set of empirical indicators of the organisational conditions of interest intermediation systems that enhance the exercise of political power. The indicators are illustrated through a comparative study of the banking sector at the European Community level and in five countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The comparison of the banking sector interest intermediation systems shows that the power of banks in Germany rests not only on their equity participation in large industrial concerns, but also on a highly developed interest intermediation system, the most integrated of the five countries. The analysis demonstrates from still another perspective the close imbrication of the state and finance in France. Finally; the article demonstrates the deep fragmentation of the US associational system, a system that has acted as a serious obstacle to banking system reform in America.     

Temporary Loan Limits as a Natural Experiment in Federal Housing Administration Insurance

The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 dramatically but temporarily increased the mortgage loan amount eligible for insurance through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). We use the implementation and expiration of these loan limits as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of FHA insurance to measure the impact on the overall mortgage market and conventional lending. We find that the introduction of higher loan limits increased the number of loan originations, but that the expiration of those loan limits roughly 6 years later did not significantly decrease affected loan originations. The substitution between loan products and small net impact on the overall mortgage market when the ESA loan limits expired may be explained by the return of a stronger conventional lending industry than existed during the housing crisis.     

FHA restructuring proposals: Alternatives and implications

Abstract

This article evaluates problems of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) under its current structure, develops criteria for judging alternative structures, and suggests one alternative—an assigned risk pool—that encourages efficiency in the insurance function while still promoting low‐ and moderate‐income housing. A historical introduction explains how the current institutional relationships came about and created FHA's problems.

FHA's decline resulted from the mixing of a heavy social agenda with the basic insurance objective, a destructive reorganization of the Department of Housing and Urban Development that caused FHA to lose control and focus, and government's inherent inability to respond to market signals. Yet the economic rationale for government involvement in FHA functions is strong. An FHA organized as an independent government agency, a government‐sponsored enterprise, or even a privatized entity structured as an assigned risk pool could improve efficiency of underwriting, pricing, and administration while achieving the redistributional objectives.     

Zwischen pragmatischem Verstehen und theoretischen Perspektiven. Politikwissenschaftliche Forschung zur Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Since 1949 we have witnessed paradigmatic changes in political science research concerning the field of German politics. The focus of this article is on the most important political institutions in Germany: Federal President, Federal Government, Federal Parliament, Bundesrat (quasi second chamber)/federalism and Federal Constitutional Court. German political science has produced an impressive number of publications on the German political system with a wide range of approaches and of high quality. What is to some extent lacking, however, is an innovative combination of the improved knowledge created with regard to the functioning of institutions in Germany on the one hand and of middle-range theories of political science on the other, especially of theories developed in international and comparative discourses.     

From 'welfare without work' to 'buttressed liberalization': The shifting dynamics of labor market adjustment in France and Germany

Abstract.  During the past decade, prevailing scholarship has portrayed France and Germany as suffering from a persistent syndrome of 'welfare without work' entailing a vicious circle between stubbornly high rates of unemployment and non-wage labor costs. Scholars blame this disease on dysfunctional political arrangements, deep insider-outsider cleavages and failed systems of social partnership. As a result, the two countries are said to be more or less permanently mired in a context of high unemployment that is highly resistant to remediation. This article departs from this conventional wisdom in two important respects. First, it argues that France and Germany have undertaken major reforms of their labor market policies and institutions during the past decade and remediated many of their longstanding employment traps. Second, it shows that the political arrangements that adherents of the 'welfare without work' thesis identify as reasons for sclerosis have evolved quite dramatically. The article supports these arguments by exploring some of the most significant recent labor market reforms in the two countries, as well as the shifting political relationships that have driven these changes. In both countries, recent labor market reforms have followed a trajectory of 'buttressed liberalization'. This has involved, on the one hand, significant liberalization of labor market regulations such as limits on overtime and worker protections such as unemployment insurance. On the other hand, it has entailed a set of supportive, 'buttressing' reforms involving an expansion of active labor market policies and support for workers' efforts to find jobs. The article concludes that these developments provide reasons for optimism about the countries' economic futures and offer important lessons about how public policy can confront problems of labor market stagnation.     

共享经济中供需双方的信用风险管理研究——以知识技能共享为例

共享经济正在成为“双创”的重要切入点。较之实物商品,知识技能更容易通过互联网平台分享,但也更容易因为供需双方的信息不对称而引发各种纠纷,进而导致共享平台难以为继。解决这些问题的根本在于强化市场经济有效运行的基础——信用风险管理体系,包括对供需双方身份、交易和评价内容的信息审核机制,充分反映双方交易历史、交易能力和信用现状的信用评价体系,动态保证金、第三方资金托管和商业保险相结合的信用保障机制,有第三方参与仲裁的在线争议处理机制,及平台、政府和行业协会协调运行的三方联合监管等五个方面。这些内容,也构成了共享平台风险管理和控制的重要内容。     

POLITICS AND REGULATION: THE PUBLIC CHOICE APPROACH

Abstract: Government regulation of the economy has been the subject of criticism both on the grounds of efficiency and equity. Traditional economic theories explaining regulation may be deficient insofar as they assume a benevolent welfare maximizing government, intervening only to correct "market failures". Political theories of interest group influence (for example pluralist, capture, Marxist theories) provide some more realistic insights into regulation, but fail to yield rigorous, testable propositions. The theory of public choice applies the rigour of economic analysis to political behaviour and suggests some useful approaches to the explanation of regulation, focusing on the public goods problem of organizing large groups of actors for collective action and on the role of the political entrepreneur in mobilizing large numbers of voters. The public choice approach may also be useful in suggesting strategies for deregulation in some key areas of the Australian economy currently under scrutiny (for example banking, airlines, telecommunications).     

Variation in central bank independence across countries: Some provisional empirical evidence

In this paper seven hypotheses to explain variation in central bank independence across countries are tested. The predictions based upon the theory that delegation of authority by politicians to the central bank is used as a commitment device are not supported: central bank independence is not higher the larger the employment motivated inflationary bias, the higher political instability or the larger the government debt. Central bank independence is positively related to historical inflation experience and negatively with political instability. We do only find limited support for the view that countries with a universal banking system and countries whose central banks do not regulate financial institutions have more independent central banks.     

Lobbying,political connections and emergency lending by the Federal Reserve

This paper tests whether the political connections of banks were important in explaining participation in the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending programs during the recent financial crisis. Our multivariate tests show that banks that were politically connected—either through lobbying efforts or employment of politically connected individuals—were substantially more likely to participate in the Federal Reserve’s emergency loan programs. In economic terms, participation in these programs was 28–36% more likely for banks that were politically connected than for banks that were not politically connected. In our final set of tests, we attempt to identify a proper explanation for this peculiar relationship. While a broad literature speaks of the moral hazard associated with receiving bailouts, we test whether another type of moral hazard exists in the period preceding the bailout. In particular, we argue that, to the extent that political connections act as synthetic insurance, banks may have engaged in more risky behavior that lead them to the Fed’s emergency lending facilities. Tests seem to confirm this explanation.     

The Launching of the EMS: An Analysis of Change in Foreign Economic Policy

Foreign exchange markets are subject to changing international regimes. When and why regimes change is a legitimate focus of political study. This is particularly so as shifts in foreign exchange markets modify relative prices in and between national economies. Authorities presiding over foreign exchange markets are answerable to their national policy communities and to their national electorates. They also operate within an international state system. Applying John S. Odell's framework to an analysis of the launch of the European Monetary System (EMS) in April 1978 by Chancellor Schmidt and President Giscard d'Estaing, it is argued that a market perspective alone would have failed to predict the establishment of the EMS. An analysis of the principal actors and their ideas; of the power political constellation; and of the domestic context in the Federal Republic and in France, contributes most to explaining ex post the shift towards a European managed exchange rate regime. In this case, the neoclassical M arket perspective provided erroneous, inadequate and subsidiary explanations. The article suggests that foreign exchange policy and therefore global financial markets belong firmly in the realm of international and comparative political studies. They are too important to be left to economists alone.     

A critical commentary on the proposals to reform India's financial system in its 2019–20 union budget

The 2019–20 Union budget aims to signal that the economic gains from cleaning of the financial system are likely to be recognizable in the future. The non‐performing assets in commercial banks have dropped substantively in last year subsequent to unprecedented recoveries over the past 4 years due to Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and other legal measures, provision coverage ratio is now at its highest in 7 years, and domestic credit growth has risen to 13.8%. The government has smoothly carried out the consolidation of public sector banks. However, the drop in banks' NPAs appears to be reflected by a liquidity squeeze and mirrored by mounting NPAs confronting the non‐banking finance company (NBFC). In addition, the problems are acute for the analyzed sub‐group of Housing Finance Corporations. While the government has announced its decision to streamline the regulatory processes within this sub‐sector, it has mandated the banks, the chief source of funds to mobilize capital for the NBFCs that appear vital to revive India's economic growth. The government has raised tax rates for the uber‐rich and import duties on a few articles such as Gold while offering tax credits on affordable housing and electric vehicles. It has attempted to improve the microstructure of the capital markets, mitigate inefficiencies in the pension space and enhance market penetration of insurance and incentivize foreign investment through budgetary proposals. This article offers a critical commentary on the proposed policy actions.     

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Insured Municipal Bond Issues

Research demonstrates that there are interest cost savings associated with municipal bond insurance, and yet only half of the bonds are issued with insurance. The theoretical determinants of bond insurance are discussed and evaluated empirically through logistic regression. Statistically significant bond attributes are the underlying credit risk, maturity, par value, and a call option. In addition, regional market characteristics at the time of issue and market segmentations are determinants of bond insurance. These findings strengthen the hypotheses that insurance mitigates market segmentation and that insurers function as delegated monitors of bond quality.     

Zwischen nationaler Identität und Verfassungspatriotismus: Deutungsmuster der politischen Gemeinschaft in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1972–1989

Subject of this study are patterns of interpretation of the political community of the Federal Republic of Germany. This paper has to be seen as a contribution to the interpretative political culture research, whose attention does not apply to subjective attitudes but to intersubjectively recognized normative ideas of the political reality. The significance of “national”, “democratic”, “european” patterns of interpretation is examined in a quantitative-qualitative content analysis of selected debates on the political community of the Federal Republic of Germany. The analysis presents a universalistic value-commitment of the discourse of the West German community.     

Road User Fees Instead of Fuel Taxes: The Quest for Political Acceptability

In light of recent regulatory changes in federal fuel economy standards for cars and trucks, the consensus forecast is that motor fuel taxes will not be an adequate source of dedicated funding for roadway maintenance and construction. This article accepts the notion that mileage fees are a promising replacement for the fuel tax and considers steps that might be taken to enhance the political acceptability of such a reform. The authors argue that simple, low‐tech ways of implementing mileage fees are possible in the near term and should be complemented by a well‐developed audit mechanism. Current trends in the automotive and auto insurance industries as well as social media are likely to reduce opposition to more technologically advanced mileage taxes in the long run.