Militarized Interstate Disputes and United States Uses of Force

Research on questions such as whether national leaders use force in the international arena to divert attention from problems at home depends on a valid and reliable list of the incidents in which various states have used military force. In the case of the United States, several data sets have been used for this purpose. This research note compares two widely used data sets, the militarized interstate disputes (MID) data, which cover disputes involving all states between 1816 and 1992, and the data originally compiled by Stephen Kaplan and Barry Blechman, which cover only the United States since World War II. This comparison indicates that, in spite of its usefulness for other conflict research, the MID data are not appropriate for analyses of U.S. decisions to use force, including tests of the diversionary hypothesis. The MID data set excludes several categories of incidents relevant to major theoretical arguments about the use of force and includes many irrelevant incidents. These problems are likely to apply to similar analyses of other states as well. The Blechman and Kaplan data set also excludes some relevant events, but its omissions are less consequential. We offer a revised list of United States uses of force between 1870 and 1995.     

Beyond Territorial Contiguity: Issues at Stake in Democratic Militarized Interstate Disputes

Scholars of international politics have been slow to address the fundamental issues that ground interstate conflict. Territory has frequently been cited as a primary source of contention among states, but it remains only one issue and not even the one most prevalent in the post–World War II time period. We take the first step toward understanding the broader theoretical link between regime type, issues, and militarized conflict by collecting new data on the issues in dispute between democracies from 1946 to 1992. We findthat (1) a large proportion of the militarized disputes between democracies in the post-WWII period involve fisheries, maritime boundaries, and resources of the sea, (2) well-established democracies are able to remove territory as a contentious issue among them, (3) disputes between democracies have become less severe and shorter in duration over time, and (4) a majority of the post-WWII militarized disputes between democracies are not resolved. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these empirical findings for the democraticpeace literature.     

The (Ir)Relevance of Militarized Interstate Disputes for International Trade

Do military disputes between two states suppress trade between their firms? Both liberals and realists suggest that conflict occurrence reduces bilateral trade. However, using a rational expectation argument, Morrow (1999) proposes that conflict occurrence and trade should be uncorrelated statistically. Empirical evidence to date both supports expectations and appears contradictory and inconclusive. We offer a theory that reconciles, encompasses, and extends the competing arguments, explaining the empirical inconsistency. By incorporating rational expectations and uncertainty into the profit calculus of trading firms, the theory identifies the conditions under which various properties of a conflict (onset, duration, and severity) should and should not reduce bilateral trade ex ante and ex post . We test the ex post effects in two datasets that cover either a wider range of countries or a longer time period than previous quantitative studies. Both an unexpected MID onset and the unexpectedness of a MID onset reduce bilateral trade substantially ex post . Preliminary tests suggest that MID duration and severity also affect bilateral trade ex post . We conclude by discussing the implications of our research.     

In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes

This paper develops a theoretical argument linking time and the timing of conflict management efforts to dispute duration. We test competing hypotheses on conflict data drawn from disputes in the post-1945 period. Our analysis demonstrates that the effects of mediation vary substantially over the course of a dispute. Specifically, we note that mediation has a curvilinear relationship with time and the ending of disputes. Mediation efforts that occur soon after disputes begin have the best chance of reducing expected future dispute duration. Following this initial period, subsequent mediation efforts lead to longer rather than shorter disputes. After a long period, mediation again leads to shorter rather than longer disputes. We also find that there should be consistency in the mediators used to manage a conflict rather than shifting personnel to interject new ideas.     

The Economic Leverage of International Organizations in Interstate Disputes

Addressing a long-standing debate in international relations scholarship, this study shows that international governmental organizations (IGOs) with high economic leverage over their member states, such as some development banks, substantially lower the risk that political disputes experience the use of military force. Empirical tests covering cases of disputatious claims and international crises since 1946 make use of a new classification of IGOs that have economic leverage and use it toward increasing states’ cost of using force in disputes. When pairs of states are subject to the economic leverage of IGOs, they are substantially less likely to use force. For the understanding and practice of interstate dispute resolution and international conflict more generally, the study suggests a specific linkage between institutionalized economic interdependence and conflict escalation.     

Nationalist Protests,Government Responses,and the Risk of Escalation in Interstate Disputes

While the existing literature emphasizes that elites often have incentives to pander to nationalist sentiment, much less attention has been paid to elite efforts to subdue popular nationalism, either to avoid domestic instability or international escalation. This article examines how different governments respond to nationalist protests and the resulting effects on the risk that interstate disputes will escalate to armed conflict. We argue that government responses to nationalist protests tend to vary in patterned ways across regime types. Nationalist protests present particular dangers in weakly institutionalized democracies, where demonstrations often pose serious threats of instability but are difficult or costly for the government to subdue, tempting or forcing leaders to escalate to appease domestic critics. We illustrate the theory with four cases representing a range of regime types: Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and the Philippines.     

Arab Muslim Attitudes Toward the West: Cultural,Social, and Political Explanations

We utilize pooled data from Zogby International's 2002 Zogby, James. 2002. What Arabs Think: Values Beliefs and Concerns, Utica NY: Zogby International.  [Google Scholar] Arab Values Survey (carried out in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and UAE) in order to test for “cultural,” “social” and/or international “political” influences on Arab Muslim attitudes toward “Western” countries (Canada, France, Germany, UK, and USA). We find little support for “cultural” hypotheses to the effect that hostility to the West is a mark-up on Muslim and/or Arab identity. We find only limited support for “social” hypotheses that suggest that hostility to the West is predicted by socioeconomic deprivation, youth, and/or being male. We find the strongest support for a lone “political” hypothesis: hostility toward specific Western countries is predicted by those countries' recent and visible international political actions in regard to salient international issues (e.g., Western foreign policies toward Palestine).     

外部渗透和政治纷争打破柬埔寨宗教平和

流亡国外的西藏宗教领袖达赖喇嘛 ,没有能出席2002年12月在柬埔寨首都金边举行的第三届世界佛教大会 ,这是人们预料中的事情。因为柬埔寨在“一个中国”、西藏问题和人权问题上的立场非常明确 ,是东盟国家中在政治和外交上最支持中国的国家之一。日本佛教团体是本次大会的主要赞助者。柬埔寨宗教部官员早在会议前几个月就已经表示 ,“柬埔寨将不邀请达赖喇嘛参加会议 ,我们的政策不允许这样做”。他说 ,“柬埔寨奉行一个中国的政策 ,香港、台湾和西藏是中国的一部分。”柬埔寨总理洪森后来也公开证实达赖将不被邀请。达赖1998年参加了在日本…     

耶路撒冷问题文化探源--对巴以新争端的思考

种种迹象表明,随着巴勒斯坦和以色列双方有关定居点和难民等棘手问题的逐步解决,耶路撒冷归属这一敏感问题将会成为巴以冲突中的新焦点。对耶路撒冷的文化探溯旨在说明:要想真正实现巴以和平,就必须合情合理地解决耶路撒冷问题。要想圆满地解决此问题,既要正视耶路撒冷复杂和动荡的政治历史,还应尊重耶路撒冷人特殊的宗教文化情感,更要兼顾阿拉伯和犹太两个民族的现实利益。要想尽快解决此问题,单靠美国、以色列和阿拉伯国家不行,还必须寻求欧盟、中国、俄罗斯等国际社会多方合作,而非美国单方主导的解决模式。中东和平问题,始于耶路撒冷,还会终于耶路撒冷。     

Rebel Behavior in the Context of Interstate Competition: Exploring Day-to-Day Patterns of Political Violence in Africa

This study develops a day-to-day theory of political violence that predicts that rebels respond strategically to the onset of interstate conflict that is directly related to a civil war. Government-initiated interstate conflict is theorized to incentivize rebels to signal their resolve, willingness to bear costs, and vulnerability of government forces. In addition, this form of interstate conflict is predicted to decrease violence against civilian populations, as it makes it more likely that rebels will need to rely on civilians for resources in the future. This is contrary to interstate conflict initiated by an external state, as this signal of third-party support makes civilian support more dispensable from the perspective of a rebel movement. Using a country-day data set constructed from event data, evidence is presented that is consistent with this theoretical logic. Interstate conflict, therefore, is shown to play a significant role in explaining the variation of violent events that occur on a day-to-day basis during a civil conflict.     

Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon's Model of Dispute Outcomes

In a recent article, James Fearon advances an innovative approach to the study of interstate crises. He adds to the traditional view (that crisis outcomes are influenced by the balance of capability and the balance of resolve) the notion that domestic political audiences exert a strong influence over which state in a crisis is likely to achieve a successful outcome. His game-theoretic analysis yields a number of interesting hypotheses, which are tested in this study using data on militarized disputes, the structure of polities, and national capability. In general the results strongly support Fearon's model, though we find that relative national capabilities do tend to affect the outcomes of crises. This study highlights the importance of combining formal models of political events with large-N empirical tests.     

东亚领土与海洋权益争议及其政治经济含义

本文围绕中日两国领土与海洋权益争议主要案例开展研究,概述争议的演变,探讨演变的动因,总结争议演变反映的国家间及地区内政治、经济关系的变化,并在此基础上总结东亚领土与海洋权益争议在冷战后显现的新特点。与所谓国家在领土、领海权益争端上寸土不让、难以妥协的一般观点不同,本文认为国家间政治经济关系的性质( 良好或紧张) 对解决它们之间的领土、领海争端有重大关联。鉴此,文章对东亚领土、领海争端的最终解决持积极、乐观态度。     

Exploring the Cultural Mechanics of Social Inequality and Global Cultural Interdependence

This article illustrates the role that General Studies courses in the Humanities can play in educating students about the complex dynamics by which cultural production may reflect, support, or change social structures, issues, and norms, through the specific examples of two English courses offered for General Studies credit at MSU Denver: “Monsters and Monstrosity” and “Vampire Films.” Grounded in a cultural-criticism approach to textual analysis, the courses read monsters as symbolic keys to the cultures that produce them. The terrifying and repulsive qualities of monsters invariably operate on the boundary between self and other. As an abject Other, the monster serves to reinforce our sense of what is different/non-normative/threatening, and the stamp of monstrosity legitimizes cultural bias, often perpetuating social marginalization and inequality.     

菲律宾独特的社会政治文化

现代菲律宾被称为西方民主制度在东方的“橱窗”。菲律宾人热衷政治 ,“对大多数菲律宾人来说 ,政治是严肃的事情 ,他们也严肃地对待它”①。每逢大选日 ,整个国家就像过节一样 ,游行、结彩 ,热闹非凡。菲律宾人也津津乐道他们国家是“第三世界最充分的新闻和言论自由”② 。的确 ,在威权主义盛行的东南亚地区 ,菲律宾的一整套类似于美国的政治制度独具特色 ,可谓一枝独秀。下面 ,笔者拟从内外两方面对造成菲律宾这一独特社会政治文化的因素进行一番探讨。一从内部因素来说 ,封建专制集权统治的先天性缺位以及本地区文化的多样性特色造就了…     

俄罗斯民族认同中的政治文化指向

俄罗斯民族和国家形成的过程也是俄罗斯民族认同形成的过程，东正教和专制制度分别为民族认同提供了文化和政治方面的基础。在这个过程中，俄罗斯民族的思想也逐渐成熟，以东正教和专制制度思想为特征的政治文化是其中的重要内容。俄罗斯民族正是依靠这种独特的政治文化基础，形成内部自我认同，确立外部自我形象，在众多认同标准中以此为主要指向。     

International Mediation and Social Networks: The Importance of Indirect Ties

This study extends the previous literature on actors' incentives in conflict management by examining how direct and indirect links between fighting parties influence the prospects for mediation onset from a social network perspective. The paper argues, contrary to existing research, that direct links, i.e., bilateral ties between warring parties, do not notably increase the likelihood of mediation. Rather, indirect links, i.e., ties that connect two states via one or more than one third party to each other, are more likely to determine whether a conflict sees mediation. Although direct links can indicate mutual interests, shared preferences, and decreased uncertainty between the warring parties, these ties either lose importance or become cut off when states enter a conflict. By contrast, indirect ties create a social network that involves outside parties in the dispute process, and indirect ties increase the exchange of information between belligerents and potential mediators and the chances that third parties will have a vital interest in intervention. My empirical analysis using conflict and social network data in 1946–1995 provides strong support for the theory.     

The Political Significance of Social Media Activity and Social Networks

This paper examines panel data from two waves of the Youth Participatory Politics Survey, a nationally representative sample of young people in the United States. It employs a cross-lagged design to investigate the extent to which common forms of online activity create pathways to online and offline forms of political activity. Specifically, we examine the influence of Friendship-Driven (FD) and Interest-Driven (ID) online activity on online participatory politics and on offline forms of political action. Our findings reveal that FD and ID activity relate to political engagement, but in different ways. In addition, we find that the size of young people’s social networks interacts with both FD and ID online activity to promote political activity. This indicates that having exposure to “weak-ties” (resulting from large social networks) promote higher levels of political engagement. These findings demonstrate the need to specify the kinds of online activities in which youth are engaged and, more broadly, the political significance of social media and social networks     

当前加勒比地区的发展

加勒比共同体多数成员都是中等收入的发展中国家,它们的国土面积狭小,但经济的对外开放程度相对较高.除了苏里南和海地之外,加勒比共同体成员国都曾经是英国的殖民地.     

越南民主政治建设中的社会组织角色分析

自20世纪80年代越南实行革新起,经济、政治和社会多个领域的变革以及诸如祖国阵线等机构的改革,为越南社会组织的快速发展提供了机遇,社会组织成为沟通国家、市场和社会三大领域的媒介,形成了有越南特色的国家社团主义结构模式。社会组织积极参与越南的民主政治建设,在国家和基层两个层面上协助越南共产党和各级政府开展工作,进而建立了较为稳定的互补性关系。一方面,社会组织成为国家和社会间信息流通的纽带;另一方面,社会组织开展活动提升国家治理水平。同时,这种互补性关系受到组织身份和参与层次两种因素的影响,使得不同身份的社会组织在不同层面上具有不同的参与程度。尽管这种互补性关系目前较为稳定,但也受到多重因素的限制与挑战,特别是个别民主化组织利用民族主义大做文章,为越南革新事业带来新的挑战。