Application of the Optimized Summed Scored Attributes Method to Sex Estimation in Asian Crania

The optimized summed scored attributes (OSSA) method was recently introduced and validated for nonmetric ancestry estimation between American Black and White individuals. The method proceeds by scoring, dichotomizing, and subsequently summing ordinal morphoscopic trait scores to maximize between‐group differences. This study tests the applicability of the OSSA method for sex estimation using five cranial traits given the methodological similarities between classifying sex and ancestry. A large sample of documented crania from Japan and Thailand (n = 744 males, 320 females) are used to develop a heuristically selected OSSA sectioning point of ≤1 separating males and females. This sectioning point is validated using a holdout sample of Japanese, Thai, and Filipino (n = 178 males, 82 females) individuals. The results indicate a general correct classification rate of 82% using all five traits, and 81% when excluding the mental eminence. Designating an OSSA score of 2 as indeterminate is recommended.     

Morphoscopic Trait Expression in “Hispanic” Populations

This study evaluates population variation of eight cranial morphoscopic traits using samples of known southwest Hispanics (n = 72), Guatemalans (n = 106), American Blacks (n = 146), and American Whites (n = 218). We applied the support vector machine (SVM) method to build a prediction model based on a subsample (20%) of the data; the remainder of the data was used as a test sample. The SVM approach effectively differentiated between the four groups with correct classification rates between 72% (Guatemalan group) and 94% (American Black group). However, when the Guatemalan and southwest Hispanic samples were pooled, the same model correctly classified all groups with a higher degree of accuracy (American Black = 96%; American White = 77%; and the pooled Hispanic sample = 91%). This study also identified significant differences between the two Hispanic groups in six of the eight traits using univariate statistical tests. These results speak to the unique population histories of these samples and the current use of the term “Hispanic” within forensic anthropology. Finally, we argue that the SVM can be used as a classification model for ancestry estimation in a forensic context and as a diagnostic tool may broaden the application of morphoscopic trait data for the assessment of ancestry.     

Evaluation of the (hu)MANid program for sex and ancestry estimation in a diverse,contemporary CT scan-based sample

Human remains from forensic and bioarcheological contexts are often fragmentary, requiring methods for estimating a forensic profile that are based upon limited skeletal features. In 2017, Berg and Keryhercz created an online application, (hu)MANid, that provides sex and ancestry estimation from mandibular morphoscopic traits and linear measurements. In this study, we examine the utility of the (hu)MANid application in a diverse, urban US adult sample (aged 20–45; n = 143) derived from computed tomography (CT) scans. We secondarily conduct a preliminary analysis of the program's utility in a sample of adolescents (aged 15–17; n = 40). Six morphoscopic, and eleven morphometric traits were recorded as directed by the literature associated with the (hu)MANid program. Percent correct classification and posterior predictive values were calculated for the sex and ancestry estimations output by the program; chi-squared tests were employed to compare self-reported and predicted ancestry. In the adult sample, sex was accurately predicted for 75.52% of the sample. Ancestry prediction, however, was less favorable ranging from 19.3% to 50% correct. For the adolescent sample, correct sex estimation (45%) did not surpass what could occur by chance alone, though ancestry prediction fared better than in the larger adult sample (percent correct prediction overall average: 47.5%, range 35.71%–71.43%). The (hu)MANid application shows utility for use with CT scan-derived adult samples for sex estimation, but caution is warranted for ancestry estimation and use with samples that may not have reached full adult maturity.     

Nonmetric Cranial Trait Variation and Ancestry Estimation in Asian and Asian-Derived Groups

Traditionally, precontact Native Americans and Asian groups have been conflated for aspects of the biological profile due to their distantly shared genetic history, although this grouping remains largely unexplored. This study examines craniomorphic variability to ascertain whether Asian groups can be differentiated from each other and from Asian-derived groups using more fine-tuned models. Cranial and mandibular data for 35 nonmetric traits were recorded on precontact Native Americans (n = 150) and modern Japanese (n = 150) and Thai (n = 150) individuals. Chi-square analyses indicate that all groups exhibit statistically significant differences in most traits. Additionally, cross-validated binary logistic regression equations resulted in correct classification rates in the range of 65.0–93.3% and demonstrate that sex does not contribute to statistical models. Therefore, numerous traits provide discriminatory resolution that detects differences between the samples, thus highlighting the potential utility of nonmetric traits in identifying individuals beyond the traditional African, European, and Asian forensic ancestry groupings.     

Ancestry Assessment Using Random Forest Modeling, ,

A skeletal assessment of ancestry relies on morphoscopic traits and skeletal measurements. Using a sample of American Black (n = 38), American White (n = 39), and Southwest Hispanics (n = 72), the present study investigates whether these data provide similar biological information and combines both data types into a single classification using a random forest model (RFM). Our results indicate that both data types provide similar information concerning the relationships among population groups. Also, by combining both in an RFM, the correct allocation of ancestry for an unknown cranium increases. The distribution of cross‐validated grouped cases correctly classified using discriminant analyses and RFMs ranges between 75.4% (discriminant function analysis, morphoscopic data only) and 89.6% (RFM). Unlike the traditional, experience‐based approach using morphoscopic traits, the inclusion of both data types in a single analysis is a quantifiable approach accounting for more variation within and between groups, reducing misclassification rates, and capturing aspects of cranial shape, size, and morphology.     

Forensic Applicability of Femur Subtrochanteric Shape to Ancestry Assessment in Thai and White American Males

Ancestry assessment from the postcranial skeleton presents a significant challenge to forensic anthropologists. However, metric dimensions of the femur subtrochanteric region are believed to distinguish between individuals of Asian and non‐Asian descent. This study tests the discriminatory power of subtrochanteric shape using modern samples of 128 Thai and 77 White American males. Results indicate that the samples' platymeric index distributions are significantly different (p ≤ 0.001), with the Thai platymeric index range generally lower and the White American range generally higher. While the application of ancestry assessment methods developed from Native American subtrochanteric data results in low correct classification rates for the Thai sample (50.8–57.8%), adapting these methods to the current samples leads to better classification. The Thai data may be more useful in forensic analysis than previously published subtrochanteric data derived from Native American samples. Adapting methods to include appropriate geographic and contemporaneous populations increases the accuracy of femur subtrochanteric ancestry methods.     

Homicide by a Forensic Female Sample in Brazil: A Preliminary Study

The objective of the study was to evaluate the mental status of all women (n = 14) who were acquitted by reason of insanity of charges of murder or attempted murder and committed to a forensic psychiatric hospital in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. All cases were retrospectively examined, including medical files, technical records, and forensic experts' official reports. A conclusive psychiatric diagnosis was established using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM‐IV Axis I and II Disorders and clinical and forensic records. The most common diagnosis was schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorders (n = 8; 57.3%). Most victims (n = 12; 75%) were close relatives of the patients. We found that 43% (n = 6) of the patients had a previous history of violent behavior. According to the initial psychiatric forensic evaluation, 5 patients (35.7%) had psychotic symptoms. It is expected that a growing understanding of motivational factors underlying homicidal behavior in mentally disturbed female offenders may further the implementation of effective preventive and therapeutic interventions.     

Evaluating the Accuracy of Cranial Indices in Ancestry Estimation Among South African Groups

Historically, population differences were quantified using cranial indices. Even though the application of indices is associated with numerous statistical and methodological problems, the use of cranial indices to estimate ancestry persists as demonstrated by its inclusion in several recent papers and conference presentations. The purpose of this study was to classify 207 South African crania and compare the results of five standard cranial indices to linear discriminant analysis (LDA). New sectioning points were created to contend with low classification accuracies (40–79%) and possible secular trends. Although the accuracies of the new sectioning points increased (66–87%), the accuracies associated with the stepwise LDA were higher (84%) and could classify the crania into one of the three South African groups. The results of the study demonstrate that indices cannot compete with multivariate techniques and should not be used in forensic anthropological analyses for ancestry estimation.     

Quantification of Maxillary Dental Arcade Curvature and the Estimation of Biological Ancestry in Forensic Anthropology

Previous studies suggest that palate shape is a useful indicator of biological ancestry in human remains. This study evaluates interobserver error in ancestry estimation using palate shape and explores palate shape variation in Gullah (descendants of West Africans) and Seminole (Indigenous American) population samples using geometric morphometric analysis. Ten participants were asked to ascribe biological ancestry and shape to 28 dental casts based on a classification scheme employed in previous studies. The mean correct classification was 42.0%, indicating that the likelihood of assigning the correct ancestry is very poor and not significantly different from random assignment (p = 0.12). The accuracy analysis based on categorical classification of the casts was complemented by geometric morphometric analysis of nine 3D landmarks reflecting palate shape of 158 casts. Principal component analysis results show no difference between populations regarding palate shape, and cross‐validated discriminant function analysis correctly classified only 62.0% of the specimens. Combined, these results show that previous methods to estimate ancestry are inaccurate and that this inaccuracy is probably due to a lack of palate shape differences between groups, rather than limitation of the analytical method per se. Therefore, we recommend caution should be used when choosing to apply the analysis of palate shape in forensically relevant contexts.     

Statistical Classification Methods for Estimating Ancestry Using Morphoscopic Traits,

Ancestry assessments using cranial morphoscopic traits currently rely on subjective trait lists and observer experience rather than empirical support. The trait list approach, which is untested, unverified, and in many respects unrefined, is relied upon because of tradition and subjective experience. Our objective was to examine the utility of frequently cited morphoscopic traits and to explore eleven appropriate and novel methods for classifying an unknown cranium into one of several reference groups. Based on these results, artificial neural networks (aNNs), OSSA, support vector machines, and random forest models showed mean classification accuracies of at least 85%. The aNNs had the highest overall classification rate (87.8%), and random forests show the smallest difference between the highest (90.4%) and lowest (76.5%) classification accuracies. The results of this research demonstrate that morphoscopic traits can be successfully used to assess ancestry without relying only on the experience of the observer.     

Ancestry Estimation Using Cranial and Postcranial Macromorphoscopic Traits

Ancestry estimation methods using macromorphoscopic (MMS) traits commonly focus exclusively on cranial morphology. The objective of this study was to demonstrate the value of postcranial MMS traits, highlighting a combined cranial/postcranial trait approach to ancestry estimation using quadratic discriminant function and a variety of machine learning classification models including artificial neural networks (aNN), random forest models, and support vector machine. Eight cranial and eleven postcranial MMS traits were collected from the Terry and Bass Skeletal Collections (American Black = 81; American White = 173). Our classification models using cranial and postcranial traits correctly classified 88–92% of the sample, improving classification accuracies by nearly fifteen percent over models relying exclusively on cranial data. These same results demonstrate the importance of a multivariate statistical framework incorporating cranial and postcranial data and the nearly unlimited potential of machine learning models to improve the accuracy of ancestry estimates over traditional methods of analysis. To facilitate implementation in casework, one of the more robust models (aNN) is incorporated into a web-based application, ComboMaMD Analytical, to facilitate cranial and postcranial MMS traits analysis for ancestry estimation.     

A State Census of Unsubmitted Sexual Assault Kits: Comparing Forensic DNA Testing Outcomes by Geographic and Population Density Characteristics*

A growing number of U.S. cities and states have large numbers of unsubmitted sexual assault kits (SAKs) in police property facilities. Prior research conducted in large urban cities has found that testing these kits yields a sizable number of DNA profiles that meet FBI eligibility for upload to the national criminal DNA database CODIS (Combined DNA Index System) and uploaded profiles return a substantial number of matches to existing criminal profiles in CODIS. It is unknown whether these findings are unique to large urban cities with high crime rates. The purpose of current study was to document forensic testing outcomes from a state census of previously unsubmitted SAKs, which included large urban–suburban centers, as well as smaller cities and rural counties. We inventoried all previously unsubmitted SAKs in Michigan (N = 3422 SAKs) and submitted all kits for forensic DNA testing. A total of n = 1239 SAKs had a DNA profile that met eligibility for upload into CODIS (36.2% unconditional, 56.5% conditional CODIS eligible rate) and n = 585 SAKs yielded a CODIS Hit (17.1% unconditional, 47.2% conditional CODIS hit rate). These rates are consistent with studies from urban areas suggesting approximately half of SAKs tested yield a CODIS profile and approximately half of those uploaded profiles yield a hit. We compared SAK forensic testing outcomes by geographic and population density characteristics, and although rates were often higher in larger metropolitan areas, the obtained rates in micropolitan and rural areas suggest testing is warranted in smaller jurisdictions as well.     

The Use of Femoral Neck Axis Length to Estimate Sex and Ancestry

Having multiple reliable methods of estimating sex and ancestry from various skeletal features increases the likelihood of identifying skeletal remains. Femoral neck axis length (FNAL), as measured in living individuals, has been shown to vary by sex and ancestry. FNAL has not, however, been previously measured directly from skeletonized remains and investigated for its potential use in forensic anthropological applications. This research proposes a method for measuring FNAL from skeletal remains, determines the reliability and repeatability of the measurement, and assesses the validity of FNAL in sex and ancestry estimation. Results showed low interobserver error in the measurement of FNAL (TEM = 0.33 mm, R = 0.99). Significant differences in FNAL were found between sexes as well as between American Black, American White, and Native American groups. FNAL can correctly classify sex in ~86% of all cases and is considered valuable to sex estimation. The value of FNAL to ancestry estimation, however, is considered limited.     

Application of Fordisc 3.0 to Explore Differences Among Crania of North American and South African Blacks and Whites,

Using discriminant function analysis, classification accuracies for ancestry and sex in white and black South Africans were compared using North American (FDB), African groups in Howells (HDB), and South African (SADB) databases in FORDISC 3.0. (FD3). Twenty‐four standard linear measures were collected from a total of 86 black and 101 white crania obtained from the Pretoria Bone Collection. White and black South Africans classified 73% correctly in FDB, 55% correctly in HDB, and 71% correctly in SADB. The percentage of atypical cases was higher with FDB than SADB. In all three databases, misclassification occurred more with sex than ancestry revealing differences in sexual dimorphism between population groups. Broad ancestral differences may explain low misclassification rates for ancestry. FD3, with a modern South African reference sample, can assist South African anthropologists to standardize methodology and to justify procedures for estimating ancestry.     

Radiodense bullet wipe around osseous entrance gunshot wounds

“Bullet wipe” is the material deposited by a bullet on any surface with which it comes into contact after it is fired and may contain debris from the gun barrel, including particles of primer and metal fragments from previously fired bullets. X‐ray analysis is a non‐destructive method by which traces of metallic elements can be visually detected. The analysis of osseous defects for radiodense bullet wipe (RBW) assists in determining the presence or absence of perforating gunshot wounds, especially in fragmented, skeletonized remains. The aim of our current study was to determine the frequency of RBW around entrance firearms injuries that perforated bone. We prospectively analyzed entrance gunshot wounds for RBW over a three‐year period using digital X‐ray analysis (n = 59). We retrospectively reviewed the corresponding autopsy reports to determine the frequency of RBW by biologic sex, reported ancestry, age‐at‐death, location of wound, manner of death, range of fire, bullet caliber, and presence of bullet jacket. Data were analyzed by Fisher's exact test or Chi‐square test with significance levels accepted at p < 0.05. RBW was present in 66% (n = 39) of examined cases. Decedent characteristics did not significantly alter RBW distribution, including biologic sex (p = 0.75), reported ancestry (p = 0.49), and age‐at‐death (p = 0.43). Additionally, the location of the osseous entrance gunshot wound, manner of death, range of fire, and cartridge caliber did not affect RBW detection. All cases involving non‐jacketed rounds (n = 5) showed RBW (p = 0.30). To our knowledge, this study is the first to report the frequency of RBW detection from osseous entrance gunshot wounds.     

Undetermined Manner of Death: An Autopsy Series

A manner of death may be ruled undetermined by the forensic pathologist when there is insufficient information about the circumstances surrounding the death to make a ruling. The aim of our study was to retrospectively analyze a series of autopsy cases that were classified as undetermined manner of death after complete investigations. In all, 48 cases were examined. In 23 cases (48%), the cause of death was determined. The most frequent cause of death was toxic death (n = 11). More than one manner of death was deemed conceivable for most cases (n = 39). The most frequent and the most probable manner of death was accident (n = 37). Homicide was not excluded in about 23% of the cases. Our study showed that the manner of death may remain undetermined despite an established cause of death, and even when two or more conceivable causes of death are considered. Our study pointed out that undetermined manner of death covers a wide range of situations and that homicide may be underestimated.     

Comparative Analysis of Insect Succession Data from Victoria (Australia) Using Summary Statistics versus Preceding Mean Ambient Temperature Models

Minimum postmortem interval (mPMI) can be estimated with preceding mean ambient temperature models that predict carrion taxon pre‐appearance interval. But accuracy has not been compared with using summary statistics (mean ± SD of taxon arrival/departure day, range, 95% CI). This study collected succession data from ten experimental and five control (infrequently sampled) pig carcasses over two summers (n = 2 experimental, n = 1 control per placement date). Linear and exponential preceding mean ambient temperature models for appearance and departure times were constructed for 17 taxa/developmental stages. There was minimal difference in linear or exponential model success, although arrival models were more often significant: 65% of linear arrival (r² = 0.09–0.79) and exponential arrival models (r² = 0.05–81.0) were significant, and 35% of linear departure (r² = 0.0–0.71) and exponential departure models (r² = 0.0–0.72) were significant. Performance of models and summary statistics for estimating mPMI was compared in two forensic cases. Only summary statistics produced accurate mPMI estimates.     

DNA in the Criminal Justice System: The DNA Success Story in Perspective,

Current figures on the efficiency of DNA as an investigative tool in criminal investigations only tell part of the story. To get the DNA success story in the right perspective, we examined all forensic reports from serious (N = 116) and high‐volume crime cases (N = 2791) over the year 2011 from one police region in the Netherlands. These data show that 38% of analyzed serious crime traces (N = 384) and 17% of analyzed high‐volume crime traces (N = 386) did not result in a DNA profile. Turnaround times (from crime scene to DNA report) were 66 days for traces from serious crimes and 44 days for traces from high‐volume crimes. Suspects were truly identified through a match with the Offender DNA database of the Netherlands in 3% of the serious crime cases and in 1% of the high‐volume crime cases. These data are important for both the forensic laboratory and the professionals in the criminal justice system to further optimize forensic DNA testing as an investigative tool.