21世纪美日贸易谈判及其对华影响

21世纪之初,美日两国相关领域专家曾就开启双边FTA谈判的可行性进行探讨;两国政府间谈判后来也终于启动。作为第一阶段贸易谈判的成果,《美日贸易协定》和《美日数字贸易协定》已于2020年1月1日正式生效。进入21世纪以来,美日贸易谈判得以启动,表面来看是美国为了降低与日本的巨额贸易赤字,利用追加汽车关税手段对日施压,日本被迫应允。实际上,美日贸易谈判的启动和发展是两国在经济利益、双边关系、地缘政治、权力博弈等多种动因综合作用下的结果。美日贸易谈判增加了美国重返TPP/CPTPP制衡中国的可能,为美日联手打造排除中国的数字贸易规则创造了条件,建立了不对称权力谈判的样板,并增大了日本在中、美之间实施战略摇摆的可能性。美日贸易谈判短期内对中国的影响并不明显,但从中长期来看,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情加速推动世界秩序重构、美日两国政府更替、RCEP签署、中欧投资协定谈判如期完成、中国表态积极考虑加入CPTPP并正就相关事项展开研究等新的国际政治经济形势下,会在多个方面产生较大影响。深入分析进入21世纪以来美日贸易谈判有助于中国及时妥善应对相关问题。     

核武器与冷战时期美国对苏联的政策

冷战时期,作为维护国家安全的重要工具,核武器在美国对苏联的政策中发挥了重要作用。美国政府不仅在战后初期坚持核保密政策,而且还多次利用核武器对苏联施加压力,以迫使其在政治上和外交上做出让步,并制定了一系列针对苏联的核作战计划。与此同时,为了保持对苏联的核优势地位,对苏联构成有效的威慑,美国政府不断加强核力量的建设,使得美苏之间的核军备竞赛愈演愈烈,并使双方走到了核战争的边缘,从而使得美苏决策者都认识到,限制核军备竞赛对双方至关重要,美苏关系也由此进入了相对缓和的时期。及至20世纪70年代,限制战略武器谈判成为美国对苏政策的重要内容。     

Peasant participation and mobilization during economic crisis: The case of Costa Rica

During the three decades prior to the 1980s, the state-led development policies pursued by Costa Rica created a standard of living that was unique in Central America and among the most satisfactory in all of Latin America. However, the economic crisis of the early 1980s and the problems created by Costa Rica's foreign debt caused the nation's political and economic leaders to abandon the previous style of development and to the introduce neoliberal economic policies. The economic changes undertaken by Costa Rica in the 1980s were strongly supported by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Among the social sectors most adversely affected by the opening to the international market were the small independent producers of basic grains and other agricultural crops primarily destined for the internal market. These peasant sectors were largely unorganized prior to the 1980s and they intensified their organizational efforts in direct response to what was viewed as the negative impact of the new economic policies. This article examines the economic crisis that engulfed Costa Rica in the early 1980s as well as the economic stabilization and structural adjustment programs that succeeded in easing the crisis and that will define the direction of development efforts in the 1990s. The bulk of the article investigates the attempts of the peasanty to organize and mobilize in order to influence the political system and to protect their economic interests. Costa Rica's principle peasant organizations are discussed and reasons are offered to explain the failure of peasant efforts to influence the formation of development policy. Gregg L. Vunderink recently received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Texas at Austin. The recipient of a Fulbright-Hays research abroad award, the author conducted research in Costa Rica and Nicaragua in 1987 and 1988. He is currently a visiting assistant professor at St. Olaf College in Northfield, Minnesota 55057.     

Islam and nationalism in west Turkestan (Central Asia) on the eve of October revolution 1

West Turkestan at the eve of the October revolution was a colony of the tsarists with the exception of the Amaret of Bukhara, which was a pro‐tecterate without any right in conducting its external affairs. The colonizers believed in the supremacy of the Russian way of life, and after witnessing the resistance of the Muslims to russification, they attempted in destroying Islamic institutions by outlawing their sources of support (such as waqf), and also coopting many of the Muslims into the colonial bureaucracy. In general, the tsarists tried to rule the area indirectly and did not interfere with the religious and civic ceremonies of the Muslims. They, however, did manipulate the population of the area by dividing them into many administrative units and inflaming ancient rivalaries among various ethnic groups when suited them. They destroyed any movement which tended in wresting the power from the colonialists. Various societies were organized by the Turkestanis in order to modernize their society and eventually rid their lands from the invaders. Many of the membership of these local organizations advocated Pan‐Islamism and/or Pan‐Turkism, both of which aimed at the liberation of Turkestan. They were crushed by the Russians. A group of mostly intellectuals, the Jadidists, who had the backing of the very small middle class such as the merchants and some Russian inteligentsia aimed in reforming their societies from within. Their programs which aimed at the modernization of the area was resisted by the Amirs and also by some of the ‘uluma, the religious leaders. The Russians also saw in the Jadidis't program a program for national liberation. Consequently at the eve of the October revolution these intellectuals (the Jadidists) were caught between the Amir and the ‘uluma on the one hand, and the Russian colonizers on the other, and were rooted out completely. Some who survived joined the Soviets (who came to power in 1918) and others, usually the betteroff ones either left the area or joined with beks, bais, and the ‘uluma to organize a grassroot opposition to the Soviets, the Basmachi movement which plagued the Red army for many years.     

后危机时代国际货币体系将走向何方?

世界经济越来越趋向多极化,而当前的国际货币体系却依然是美元一家独大,这种失衡不可避免地产生矛盾,也是导致2008年全球金融危机的重要原因。危机之后,许多论争多集中在改革当今以美元为中心的国际货币体系的必要性上,而对改革的现实可能性则没有深入探讨。从理论上讲,稳定有效的国际货币体系必须解决国际清偿力、国际收支不平衡的调整和对该体系内的核心货币的信心问题。中短期内美元的中心地位仍然难以撼动,但美国实施的量化宽松货币政策及其日益膨胀的赤字和债务意味着风险的蓄积,将影响人们对美元的信心,并为其他币种的国际化创造了机遇。     

The united states naval blockade of Iraq: A foreign policy and international law analysis

The current Persian Gulf crisis may signal a new period in human history in which the United Nations is viewed as the forum of first resort for the resolution of international harms and disputes. This is particularly striking since the Security Council, because of east-west divisions, has been unable to act in a collective manner to addresses serious international breaches of the peace. This two part essay deals with the events leading up to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the step-by-step reaction by the U.S. Government, the imposition of the U.S. Navy blockade of Kuwaiti shipping, and the legal justification for the introduction of forces. The reader is left to decide whether the Rule of Law and Charter ideals of collective security, are the real victors in the current conflict.

Part 1 of the essay examines the detailed economic and political causes for the Iraqi invasion. Even though some commentators have characterized Saddam Hussein's entry into Kuwait as “naked aggression” which was driven by Saddam Hussein's hamartia to become the new Nasser, OPEC production disputes, allegations of excessive Kuwaiti pumping of the Rumalia oil field (straddles both countries), the need for an Iraqi coastline, and large Iraqi debt to Kuwait are seen as “rational” reasons for the invasion. A historical examination of the Iran-Iraq conflict is grafted into part one to assist the reader in appreciating the fact that belligerent conduct is viewed in Iraq as a normative mode of conflict resolution and that in the context of all current and future military and diplomatic interchanges, the proven bellicosity of Iraq should figure prominently in the approaches which are taken.

The U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf must be viewed in the context of the U.S.'s diplomatic and economic interests in the region. The essay concludes that the actions of the United States in the first forty days after the Iraqi invasion were masterful because of the skilled use of the U.N. security council (to build a broad political base) as well as the introduction of limited force (imposition of a naval blockade) to signal to Saddam Hussein that the international community was serious in its resolve. The shooting which is taking place is most unfortunate; but U.S. efforts were properly tailored to keep the world coalition intact and prevent a shooting war. Until approximately 3 weeks into the actual conflict, the level of anti-U.S. rhetoric was noticeably small- a triumph for U.S. foreign policy makers in forming a world-wide consensus and maintaining it and a triumph for international respect for law.

The final portion of Part 1 deals with the history of blockades before and after the 1945 U.N. Charter. Blockade actions have been used since the Middle Ages but the 1856 Pact of Paris and the 1909 Declaration of London are the modern sources for the Law of Blockade. Becuase of the sheer intensity of conflict in the First and Second World Wars, the normative rules contained in the two written sources of law fell into disuse. Even so, most of the substantive provisions from the 19th and early 20th century doctrines are incorporated into contemporary law and policy. Commander Rosen argues strenuously for a modernization of the international conventions to codify the rules of blockade since, given the utter destructiveness of modern warfare, blockades remain a relatively benign use of force in those situations in which use of force is legally justified. But, however laudable the U.N. Charter ideals are to sharply restrict the use of force to exceptionally limited circumstances and make state aggression illegal, situations will arise in which use of force will be necessary to respond to illegal aggression. Resurrection of the old concept of pacific blockade (similar to the naval action taken in connection with the Cuban Missile Crisis) is urged because unanimity in the U.N. is transitory and nations, particularly superpowers, need the legal flexibility to react to illegal aggression with limited uses of force--below the threshold uses of force authorized by the U.N. Charter.     

冷战初期越共结盟政策的缘起与形成(1947—1950)

冷战初期,越南共产党试图延续其自建国以来带有中立色彩的对外政策,极力避免法越战争国际化。但在冷战向亚洲蔓延、法越战争进入僵持阶段、中国革命形势快速发展、美法关系升温等因素的作用下,越共逐步走上了结盟之路。1950年初,越共追随中共倒向以苏联为首的社会主义阵营标志着其结盟政策的形成。该政策不仅导致越共获得了足以改变战场形势的军事援助,并促成了以中国支援越南进行民族解放斗争为主要形式的中越准军事同盟。更重要的是,越共借社会主义阵营的外交承认解决了法国选择扶植保大政府所引发的政权合法性危机,这也是越共实施结盟政策的直接动因。     

In pursuit of homogeneity: the Lausanne Conference,minorities and the Turkish nation

Following World War I, the Allied Powers signed Minority Treaties with a number of Central and Eastern European states. These treaties delineated the status of religious, ethnic and linguistic minorities in their respective countries. Turkey would be one of the last states that sat down to the negotiation table with the Allied Powers. In the Turkish case, the Lausanne Treaty would be the defining document which set out a series of rights and freedoms for the non-Muslim minorities in the newly created nation. The present article explores how and why the non-Muslim minorities were situated in the fringes of the new nation. In doing so, the article highlights the content of the discussions in the Lausanne Conference and in the Turkish Grand National Assembly with an emphasis on the position of the Turkish political elite.     

Irrigation and water management by the Damodar valley corporation

The Damodar river rises in the state of Bihar in eastern India, and flows south‐east for 336 miles to join the Hooghly‐Bhagirathi 30 miles to the south of Calcutta. The Damodar serves one of the most important coalbearing regions of India in its upper reaches, while downstream its waters feed important agricultural districts near Calcutta. Consciously modelled on the Tennessee Valley Authority in the USA, the Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) wasset up by the government of India in 1948, principally to provide flood control and irrigation to the valley and generate hydroelectric power. The plan was to impound 5–3 million Acft of water with the help of seven dams in its upper reaches and a barrage downstream to control the flow down the river and the canals. Ultimately, only four dams were built in 1950–59 (with a barrage in Durgapur), which together can impound 1–2 million Acft. Of this, only 0–47 million Acft has been earmarked for irrigation. In the first decade of its operation (i.e. 1958–68) DVC irrigation stabilised the cultivation of aman rice, which is the main crop of the most important crop season (i.e. the kharif or monsoon) in the area. The other two crop seasons, i.e. winter (rabi) and summer (boro) have been neglected, the boro particularly. This paper seeks to measure, with reference to the first decade of its operation, how much of the Damodar flow has been controlled by the DVC system and whether sufficient water is available in the river and in the reservoirs to provide irrigation in more than one crop season in the valley.     

The rebirth of Chinggis Khaan: state appropriation of Chinggis Khaan in post-socialist Mongolia

A massive monument of Chinggis Khaan (Chinggis Khaan’s name is spelt differently depending on the language in which it was written and on conventions of transliteration. Among the most common are Chinggis, Genghis, Genghiz, or Jengiz. For the purpose of the paper, the Mongolian transliteration is used.) imposingly gazes down from the government palace in Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia. The monument was erected in 2006 in commemoration of the 800-year anniversary of the establishment of “the Great Mongolian State.” Occupying arguably the most prominent national space, the monument serves as an arresting emblem of the state. With its silent yet triumphant symbolization, the monument articulates the state’s new ideology in the post-Soviet era. The monument is one of countless symbolic and material grand-scale state expressions appropriating Chinggis Khaan. In this article, I examine the state’s appropriation of Chinggis Khaan as the marker of Mongolian post-socialist national identity. In doing so, I critically examine how the state appropriates history, remembering and forgetting certain parts, to cultivate a shared sense of belonging and pride. Unifying the public in shared glorification and celebration of Chinggis Khaan ultimately serves to instill devotion to the national political and ideological project.     

Religion and the State: The Singularity of the Jordanian Religious Experience

The history of the Islamic movement in Jordan displays glaring contrasts with its counterparts in other Islamic countries such as Egypt, pre-Revolutionary Iran, and Syria. In a marked departure from a history of violence that characterized the relationship between the state and the Islamic opposition in these countries, the Jordanian Muslim Brothers was not only a peaceful movement but also often defended the state against the challenges of radical ideologies. Following the democratization process launched by the late King Hussein, the Muslim Brothers participated in electoral politics. To adapt itself to the new pluralistic environment, the movement displayed a move toward secularization. This process was reflected in an organizational differentiation and the rationalization of religious discourse. This paper attempts to explain this remarkable phenomenon by first considering the effects of the structure, ideology, and cultural policies of the state and of the development of social classes on the Islamic movement. It then considers the way in which the legal framework and political pluralism in the 1990s contributed to the secularization of the movement.     

From Third World internationalism to ‘the internationals’: the transformation of solidarity with Palestine

This paper examines the formation of the concept of ‘the internationals’ in Palestine. The post-Oslo term began to be used in the second intifada to denote white solidarity activists in the colony. In tracing the rise of the concept, the paper charts some of the ways solidarity with the Palestinian people has been domesticated under the Oslo ‘peace process’. Situating and analysing the rise of the concept of ‘the internationals’ within the assemblage of apparatuses and ideological forces inscribed during Oslo, it explains how these material structures have contributed to shifting the notion and praxis of solidarity. Taking Third World internationalist and anti-imperialist feminist practices of solidarity as its starting point, the paper historicises and theorises some of the changes that have taken place over time. It offers an anti-colonial, anti-racist, feminist critique of the individualisation of solidarity and centres indigenous Palestinian perspectives. It concludes by surveying the ways Palestinians are creating alternatives and rebuilding international solidarity.     

From agricultural modernisation to agri-food globalisation: The waning of national development in Thailand

Agriculture has been central to accounts of Thailand's modernisation and the rise of the national development project between the 1940s and the 1970s. However, the role of agriculture in the waning of national development is rarely explored critically in the Thai context. This paper focuses on agriculture and the role of the state in the shift from national development to globalisation. The first part of the paper examines the beginnings of Thailand's modern agricultural sector, before turning to the state-sponsored diversification of agriculture in the 1950s. The paper locates shifting state responses to agriculture in the late 1950s and 1960s in the context of specific political and historical social forces, before exploring the emergence of agri-food exports in the 1970s and the rise of agribusiness in the 1980s and 1990s. The paper concludes by commenting on the significance of the Thai state's role in the national development project and the globalisation project.     

The continuing relevance of Germany's engine for CEE and the EU

The article looks first into the nature of the relations between Germany and the CEE countries a decade since the accession of the CEE countries to the EU. The relations are characterized as normalised and intensive with diverse levels of closeness and co-operation reflecting of the conceptual and ideological compatibility/differences.Next, the article focuses on the German attitude to the euro zone crisis. Germany has become a hegemon in the rescue effort aimed at stabilisation and economic invigoration of the euro zone. However, German hegemony has developed by default, not by design: her leading position is linked with considerable political and financial costs. Germany moved central stage and took the position of a reluctant hegemon. However, German role is contested internationally (it has not the support of the French government in key areas) as well as internally (particularly by the Federal Constitutional Court and the Bundesbank).The article argues that the new situation makes the German–CEE relations increasingly relevant for both sides. The German leadership of the EU increasing split along the north–south divide requires backing by the Northern group countries to which the CEE in general belongs. Given a number of reasons the CEE countries implement three distinctive strategies of co-operation with Germany in European politics. Also military co-operation, which remained rather limited so far, may receive new impulses, given the financial austerity.     

U.S. Military Interventions and the Risk of Civil Conflict

The historical record of the majority of inter- and intra-state conflicts indicates frequent third-party interventions in these conflicts. In the decades following World War II, the United States has been one of the most frequent interveners in third world internal wars. This study focuses on the repercussions of U.S. military interventions on the intensity of civil conflict and political violence in the targeted nations. A comprehensive empirical analysis suggests that in addition to low per capita income, large populations, high religious fractionalization, and weak governance, the direct and indirect involvement of the U.S. military may also lead to increased civil strife and political violence in the targeted nations. U.S. military involvement increases the probability of political instability and unrest and hence could be one of the many conditions that favor insurgency.     

Book reviews

Paulin Kola, The Search for Greater Albania (London: Hurst, 2003), xiv, 416 pp. + maps. Few are the monographs available in English and written by Albanian scholars that deal with the contemporary history of the Balkans. The Search for Greater Albania is therefore a welcome contribution to the study of Albanian nationalism. The author endorses a definition of nationalism as an ideology “whose proponents advocate the indispensable congruence of the political and the national unit, i.e. the state and the nation” (p. xii) and endeavors to demonstrate that no one among Albanian leaders from King Zog to the present, including Hoxha, ever worked to achieve a “Greater Albania.” The intent of the book is then to explain why state-builders in Tirana from the very beginning disregarded their irredenta despite the fact that a substantial part of the ethnic population had remained outside the borders because of international treaties. After a summary of the historical developments in the first part of the twentieth century, Kola pays particular attention to the space for ethnopolitics among Albanian communist and post-communist elites in Albania proper, in Kosovo and marginally in Macedonia. The author is keen to question the nationalist credentials attributed to Enver Hoxha by most scholars of Albania. Kola describes the key historical events in the region after the Second World War by looking for references to Kosovo and the preservation of national independence and shows that these references were all just instrumental to elites' power politics. What the communist regime instead managed to do, observes Kola, is to impoverish its own citizens and to alienate Albanian communities from one another. Kola concludes that political leaders in Tirana have all been prone to “a comfortable parochialism vis-à-vis the national question“ (p. 233). Exceptions to the rule are considered, such as the attempt to internationalize the Kosovo crisis by the first post-communist governments. However, the 1997 descent into anarchy of Albania proper compromised the cause of nationalism in the “motherland.” The idea of “Greater Albania,” according to Kola, never existed in Albania proper but was rather rooted outside the nation-state borders. In Kosovo, where “real Albanian nationalism” instead resided, the discovery of the poverty of the “motherland” in the 1990s toned ambitions down (p. 394). The same Macedonian Albanians did not expect help from Tirana when they initiated the armed confrontation in 2000 and did not show any intention to seek national unification with Tirana. Therefore, Kola observes, foreign observers should be reassured that national unification is not the ambition of Albanian politics today and no one will press for it in the foreseeable future.     

DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE IN PAKISTAN'S FRAGMENTED SOCIETY

This paper examines Pakistan's recent democratic experiment in the framework of governance defined as the process of exercising power in the pursuit of common goals. Legitimacy, institutions and performance constitute the process of governance. Legitimacy refers to the consent of the governed and the rule of law. Institutions include deliberately created legal frameworks, laws, legislatures, executives and judiciary as well as customs, values and norms that emerge through practice. Effective governance requires congruence between the formal and informal institutions. Performance refers to the accomplishment of common objectives and judicious use and allocation of public resources. Good governance assumes the existence of democratic institutions. Governance occurs in a context and environment that not only shapes the process but over time is shaped by governing practices. The civil society and the market institutions provide the large part of the environment.     

Financial investment via ADRs in Mexico and South America

American depository receipts (ADRs) are dollar-denominated, negotiable instruments issued by a depository bank to represent ownership of a foreign security in the bank's possession. They are the primary method employed by Latin American corporations to raise equity capital in the United States. One flequently overlooked aspect about ADRs is that their investment performance provides a gauge not only on management's performance but also a measure of the foreign government's ability to provide a political, legal, economic and social climate that is conducive to international investment. This paper investigates the returns and risks associated with foreign investment in Mexico and South America. First, we show that the weekly returns to Latin American stocks are weakly correlated with the U.S. stock market which suggests that they can reduce the risk of a portfolio that is fully diversified within the U.S. market. Second, we find that ADRs from this region are more risky than U.S. common stocks. However, we find little evidence that foreign exchange rate risk should be a major factor in the investment decision. Third, we examine the effects of the devaluation of the Mexican peso and show that political factors can significantly increase the risk and reduce the return to foreign investment. Finally, the results show that investors do not pay a significantly larger relative transaction cost premium for investing in Mexican and South American equity vis-à-vis U.S. common stock. We conclude that ADRs provide the ability for the U.S. investor to realize potentially superior gains from companies located in these emerging economies. However, the willingness by the U.S. investor to disinvest means that politicians and managers have a powerful incentive to continue reforms that lead to improved standards of living for their citizens and employees.     

From authoritarianism to political democracy in Grenada: Questions for U.S. policy

Beginning as early as 1498 when Grenada had its initial contact with metropolitan forces, this island state has experienced little of the political democracy U.S. President Reagan pledged to restore to the country as part of the 1983 intervention. Yet, for the 1984 elections that followed the toppling of the remaining vestiges of the 1979–83 revolution, the United States and selected Caribbean allies attempted to amalgamate a party as an alternative to the Grenada United Labour Party (GULP) and the remaining revolutionary forces. The resulting New National Party (NNP) was electorally successful in 1984 but by 1987 defections from the Party had produced a base for the National Democratic Congress (NDC). In 1989 the NNP again divided. It was thus predictable that the 1990 elections would not return either wing of the National Party and instead would result in a coalition government led by the NDC. Chances for real political democracy in Grenada are improved but will not be easily realized in the face of severe economic crisis and a potentially weak government. The economic crisis could well promote current movements toward increased regional integration. It is important that the 1983–1984 pledge of the United States to promote democratization in Grenada be honored. W. Marvin Will is associate professor of comparative politics in the Department of Political Science at the University of Tulsa. He is past president of the Midwest Association of Latin American Studies and a founding member of the Caribbean Studies Association. Will has done extensive field research in the Caribbean and is the recipient of a 1991–92 Fulbright Research Fellowship for Caribbean Research. He is co-author of a forthcoming book on the Pacific and Caribbean Basins.     

2008年以来民进党修补与美国互信关系的效果及前景分析

2008年民进党下台以来，持续透过访美、恢复驻美代表处、在两岸政策和对美政策上积极迎合美国等做法，修补与美国的互信关系，为其重返执政创造条件。民进党对美示好的做好虽得到美方善意回应，但因民进党拒绝放弃“台独”立场，无法提出令美放心的两岸政策新主张，因此双方互信提升程度有限，美始终对民进党重新执政充满疑虑。因受美国对台战略考虑、民进党两岸政策转型的复杂性等因素制约，未来双方关系的发展前景充满变数。