Day care and female employment in Mexico: descriptive evidence and policy considerations

"This paper analyzes the supply and organization of public day care in Mexico and presents a series of considerations as to the formulation of future policy. The research concentrates on the evolution of public policies to provide day care to working women in the formal sector through the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS). Data on the evolution of female labor force participation, changes in family structure, the supply of day care and patterns of child care arrangements, suggest that access to formal facilities falls short of demand.... Innovative policies for the reorganization and expansion of the provision of day care are presently under consideration." (EXCERPT)     

The economics of the women's movement

In recent years, the political process has seemed to become increasingly favorable to issues involving women, as shown by the relatively large number of states which have passed the Equal Rights Amendment. The economic theory of politics would imply that this result would occur if the interests of women in removing labor force sex discrimination had increased. We argue that most sex descrimination in hiring and pay of women is in the form of statistical discrimination where sex is used as a proxy for labor force attachment. If this is so, then, on net, sex discrimination in employment practices would pay in the sense that the gainers from such behavior would gain more than the losers would lose. Married women would share in such gains since they would be compensated for their lower earnings by the higher earnings of their husbands. Single women, however, would receive no such compensation. We therefore hypothesize that the recent increase in legislation benefitting women is related to marriage rates, not to female labor force participation. Using votes in the state legislatures on the ERA as a measure of success by state of the women's movement, we find that our results do hold — number of single women is significant in explaining such voting but female labor force participation is not significant.     

The Growth of Government: Sources and Limits

Theories of the size of government focus on either the demandfor government or the supply of tax revenues. Demand sidetheories such as those of Peltzman, Meltzer and Richard,Husted and Kenny, and Lott and Kenny are essentially politicaltheories. They emphasize the role of voters or interest groupsin expanding government. Supply side theories such as those ofKau and Rubin, Baumol, West, and Ferris and West emphasize theability of government to collect taxes. In this paper, wecombine both demand and supply side theories. For demand, weuse the Poole-Rosenthal time series data on the ideology ofCongress, on the theory that all political forces mustultimately express themselves in voting which is measured byideology. For supply, we use the Kau-Rubin measures of theability of government to collect taxes as a function of thedeadweight costs of tax collection and ability of individualsto hide revenues. We find that female labor forceparticipation and the associated ability to tax femaleproductivity is the most important factor associated withgovernment, and it alone explains about 60% of the actualgrowth of government. The ideology of the Senate is alsosignificant, but has a small effect. This paper may be thefirst to examine the influence of ideology on the time path ofa policy; other research examining ideology (including ours)has been cross sectional. Further research on the role ofideology in changing policies over time is clearly warranted.     

Public employment and the double role of bureaucrats

Bureaucrats in the government sector have a double role since they are both suppliers and demanders of public employment; they are publicly employed (supply labor) and they have an important say in deciding the size of the municipal employment (demand labor). In this paper we present and estimate a theoretical model that focuses on this double role of bureaucrats. The predictions from the theoretical model are supported by our empirical results: The estimates, based on data from Swedish municipalities 1990–2002, show that wages have smaller effects on the demand for bureaucrats than on the demand for other types of public employees. Actually, wages have no significant effect on the number of bureaucrats the municipality employs.     

The internal consistency of corrected labor force data in the census (1960-1980) and the estimation of labor force participation rates by age and sex for 1980

This work examines the internal consistency of corrected estimates of the economically active population in the Mexican censuses of 1960 through 1980, estimates participation rates by age and sex for 1980, and determines the degree of overestimation or underestimation of the 1980 census. The first section reviews results of evaluations of information on the active population and examines the internal consistency of the different estimates. The second establishes criteria for correction of participation rates by age and sex for 1980 and estimates the degree of overestimation or underestimation, and the third assesses the advantages and limitations of the results. Comparison of results from several studies suggests that the labor force was significantly overestimated in the 1960 and 1980 censuses and underestimated in the censuses of 1970 and 1990. Estimates of overestimation in the 1960 census ranged from 8.5 to 14.3%, while estimates of underestimation in 1970 ranged from -0.5% to -0.8%. Estimates of overestimation in 1980 ranged from 6.6% to 21.6%. Internal consistency of labor force data was also assessed through a comparative analysis of average rates of growth of the population aged 12 and over and of the economically active population according to the census and the various corrections. The study concluded that the female labor force was overestimated by 1.6 million workers in 1980, or 27.1%, while the male labor force was overestimated by 610,000 workers, or 4%. The total labor force was overestimated by around 10%. These estimates for 1980 appear more congruent with general trends in male and female labor force participation, and also with the rate of growth of the population over age 12.     

The participation of women in urban labor markets in Mexico: 1970-1980

This article analyzes the presence of women in urban labor markets in Mexico during the 1970s in terms of the regional location of the city and the type and diversity of employment opportunities for women. 49 cities with over 100,000 inhabitants in 1980 were grouped into 3 regions, the relatively urban and industrial north, the heterogeneous center, and the less developed south. Census data for 1970 and 1980 on male and female labor force participation in the municipios containing the 49 cities were analyzed to assess urban labor markets. The cities were grouped according to whether they had higher or lower than average rates of labor force participation in the 2 study years. The cities of the north included the greatest relative number of cases of low female and male labor force participation in 1970 and 1980 and a declining trend for the 1970s. Cities of the center had the highest levels of male and female labor force participation in both 1970 and 1980 and showed a trend toward increasing female participation in the 1970s. Cities in the south were in an intermediate position, but during the 1970s a high percentage showed a trend toward increase in male participation and decrease in female participation. Typologies of the cities were then constructed based on female age specific participation rates and female occupational distribution. Urban areas with high rates of participation among young women aged 15-24 years were distinguished from those with high participation rates for younger and older women, and those with less diversified employment opportunities for women were distinguished from those with more diversity. Female participation presented marked variations between regions. In general, women participated to a greater degree in diversified labor markets that absorbed workers of different ages and degrees of qualification. There were not necessarily more female workers in cities that were more dynamic in terms of economy and male participation. Cities of 100,000 or more inhabitants in the center were characterized by a high proportion of women of different ages in the labor market. Cities in the north had lower average levels of female participation although those on the northern border had a high participation of young women in manufactures and assembly. Southern cities employed women in manual occupations, especially in commerce and services. Primarily adolescents under 15 and women over 25 were employed. Apart from the regional variations there were variations in female employment within regions. An annex discusses the study methodology in greater detail.     

家庭依附、人力资本与女性青年的劳动参与——来自湖北省的数据

本文以2009年湖北省4442份城乡居民抽样调查数据为样本,采用计量经济学的方法,实证分析了家庭依附和人力资本对青年女性劳动力劳动参与的影响,并就我国女性劳动参与决策影响因素做了城乡对比分析。研究发现,女性的人力资本和家庭依附因素对城乡女性的劳动参与有着显著的影响,但是其劳动参与决定存在着城乡差异。在劳动参与方面,农村女性的家庭依附性较之城市女性更强一些,而人力资本变量对城市女性劳动参与的影响更大,年龄、文化程度、迁移以及工作流动性都对城市女性劳动参与影响显著。我国城乡女性劳动参与一年龄曲线呈M型,有着明显的阶段性就业特征。     

Black employment problems: New evidence,old questions

This article attempts to review and synthesize some new evidence on the employment problems of young blacks, especially relating to the issues of skill and spatial mismatch, racial discrimination, crime, and immigration. I also discuss various interpretations of these phenomena and highlight the fact that both shifts in demand (that is, employers and jobs) and the characteristics and responses of supply (that is, workers) in the labor market appear to be responsible for recent trends in employment and earnings among young blacks. This implies that government policy should focus directly on demand-side issues (such as job availability) in the short term, and especially on improving the adjustment of the black labor force to these shifts in demand over time.     

Universal Cash Transfers and Labor Market Outcomes

One major criticism of Universal Basic Income is that unconditional cash transfers discourage recipients from working. Evidence to date has largely relied on targeted and/or conditional transfer programs. However, it is difficult to draw conclusions from such programs because universal transfers may induce a positive demand shock by distributing cash to a large portion of the population, which may in turn offset any negative labor supply responses. We estimate the causal effects of universal cash transfers on short-run labor market activity by exploiting the timing and variation in size of a long-running unconditional and universal transfer: Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend. We find evidence of both a positive labor demand and negative labor supply response to the transfers. Small negative effects on the number of hours worked are found for women, especially those with young children. In contrast, we find an increase in the probability of employment for males in the months following the distribution. Altogether, a $1,000 increase in the per-person disbursement leads to a 0.8 percent labor market contraction on an annual basis.     

Work,fertility, and the status of women in Mexico

Among the major transformations affecting Mexican women in recent decades were their growing participation in the labor market and the fertility decline that began in the 1970s with widespread access to contraception. Data from 3 major Mexican fertility surveys, employment surveys, and censuses are used to analyze changes in female employment and their determinants during the years of economic recession in the 1980s. The main characteristics of the Mexican fertility decline are described, and the relationship between fertility and female employment before and during the economic recession is scrutinized for different social sectors. Suggestions for research on the affects of these changes on the social condition of Mexican women are then presented. The proportions of Mexican women over 12 years old who declared themselves economically active increased from 16% in 1970 to 21% in 1979 and 32% in 1987. Until the 1970s the majority of employed women were young and single or childless. But a clear increase occurred between 1976-87 in the economic participation of older women in union. Economic participation of low income and less educated women increased as they sought work or created their own in response to deteriorating living conditions during the recession. Young women with intermediate or higher educational levels did not increase their relative presence in the labor market in the same period. The marked increase in economic participation of less educated women in union with small children was accompanied by a significant increase in manual occupations. Between 1982-87, the proportion of women aged 20-49 in nonsalaried manual occupations rose from 7.6% to 18.5%. Mexico's fertility decline has been well documented. The total fertility rate declined from 6.3 in 1973 to 3.8 in 1986, while the percentage of women in union using a contraceptive method increased from 30.2 in 1976 to 52.7 in 1987. Fertility differentials have been declining but are still considerable. The inhibitory influence of children on female labor force participation in Mexico is clear, but in the years of economic recession the most notable increase in female workers was in women with 3 or more children of whom the youngest was under 3. It appears that the influence of children on women's employment depends on the socioeconomic status of the woman as well as on the dynamism or sluggishness of the labor market. Research is needed on the significance of changes in fertility and female employment for women's status in Mexico. Several recent works have presented results of microsocial analyses of the ways in which women experience changes in their lives resulting from fertility and employment decisions. A methodological strategy for studying these changes and their influence on women's status should focus on comparisons between different generations and birth cohorts, different types of employment, and different socioeconomic statuses. Both macrosocial and microsocial forms of analysis are needed to provide a full picture.     

Bureaucratic Job Mobility and The Diffusion of Innovations

In studies of innovation, policy entrepreneurs recognize latent demand for new policies and then expend resources to promote them. But studies of policy entrepreneurs have generally focused on the demand for innovation, while neglecting the supply side of policy entrepreneurship. This article argues that bureaucratic labor markets affect the emergence of policy entrepreneurs, and so affect the diffusion of policy innovations across local governments in the United States. Analysis of a survey of municipal police chiefs and water utility managers relates governments' hiring and promotion policies to their adoption of professionally fashionable innovations. Agency heads who advanced to their current positions diagonally (arriving from another organization) are more likely to initiate these innovations than are agency heads who were promoted from within. Bureaucratic policy entrepreneurs emerge where government demand for innovation meets a supply of mobile administrators, who carry the priorities of their professions into the agencies that they serve.     

Should I Care or Should I Work? The Impact of Work on Informal Care

This paper provides novel evidence on how a sharp increase in labor force participation among older women affects the provision of informal care to their older parents. Based on data from Understanding Society – The UK Household Longitudinal Study, we use an instrumental variable approach that exploits a unique reform that increased the female State Pension age by up to six years. Our results provide evidence of a trade-off between the intensive margin of work and informal care provided outside the household: an increase of 10 hours of work per week reduces the provision of informal care by 2.1 hours a week, which amounts to roughly £2,100 of yearly care-hours lost. This reduction in caregiving is largest among women working in physically or psychosocially demanding jobs, and “sandwich generation” women who have both a living grandchild and a parent alive. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we show that older parents whose daughters became ineligible to claim their pensions experienced a significant reduction in the amount of care they receive from their daughters, which was not compensated by an increase in formal care or other sources of support. Our results suggest that policies that increase older workers’ labor supply require changes in long-term care policy that compensate for the loss of informal care.     

The social security earnings test and work incentives

The labor supply and benefit claiming incentives provided by the early retirement rules of the Social Security Old Age benefits program are of growing importance as the Normal Retirement Age (NRA) increases to 67, the labor force participation of Older Americans rises, and a variety of reforms to the Social Security system are considered. Any reform needs to take into account the effects and rationale of the Social Security Earnings Test and the Actuarial Adjustment Factor, which are likely to be widely misunderstood due to the relatively little attention paid by policymakers and researchers to the fact that Americans are willing to work while receiving benefits. We describe these incentives and emphasize that individuals who claim benefits before the NRA but continue to work, or return to the labor force, can reduce the early retirement penalty by suspending the collection of monthly benefits if they earn above the Earnings Test limit. We then argue that the Earnings Test can be distortionary and is costly to administer, and that these characteristics are inflated by the lack of information given to Older Americans regarding the consequences of working while receiving retirement benefits. We present results from statistical models of labor force exit behavior using data from the Health and Retirement Study showing the relevance of these incentives, and investigate the importance of informational asymmetries among beneficiaries regarding benefit withholding using a dynamic life‐cycle model of labor supply and benefit claiming. We then use the latter framework to compare the behavioral and welfare implications of a removal of the Earnings Test to the policy of providing more information regarding the Earnings Test and the adjustment of the rate of benefit pay to Older Americans. © 2007 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Immigrant and Refugee Workers in the Midwestern Meatpacking Industry: Industrial Restructuring and the Transformation of Rural Labor Markets

This paper examines the process of incorporation of immigrant and refugee workers into the meatpacking industry of the Midwest during a period of rapid restructuring. Immigrant and refugee workers have provided low-cost labor to meatpacking firms under pressure from both increased competition and a declining market for red meat. The search for new supplies of labor reflects fundamental changes within the industry. The dynamics of labor force recomposition in the meatpacking industry are the result of the interplay of such factors as the nature of industrial restructuring, the locally available labor supply, and programs designed to move immigrants, refugees, and the unemployed into full-time employment. This process has had differential effects on the industry, workers, the unions, and rural communities.     

The increasing labor force participation of older workers and its effect on the income of the aged

The labor force participation rates of men and women aged 62-79 have notably increased since the mid-1990s. The result is a dramatic increase in the share of total money income attributable to earnings. For persons aged 65-69, the earnings share of total income increased from 28 percent in 1980 to 42 percent in 2009. For this age group in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Social Security benefits and earnings were roughly equal shares of total money income (about 30 percent); the earnings share is now more than 12 percentage points larger. When we focus on aged persons who receive Social Security benefits, earnings shares have increased markedly throughout the 62-79 age range since the early 1990s. We show that for aged persons with labor market earnings, those earnings have a large effect on their relative position in the distribution of annual money income of older Americans.     

A new framework for testing the effect of government spending on growth and productivity

Does government spending have a positive or negative effect on economic growth? The results of earlier empirical studies give mixed results. In this study we suggest a new method for testing the effect of different kinds of government expenditure on productivity growth in the private sector. The focus on productivity in the private sector and the use of disaggregated data makes it possible to avoid or mitigate a number of methodological problems. The major conclusions, which are quite robust, are that government transfers, consumption and total outlays have consistently negative effects, while educational expenditure has a positive effect, and government investment has no effect on private productivity growth. The impact is also found to work solely through total factor productivity and not via the marginal productivity of labor and capital.     

地方政府公共服务创新：驱动机制与路径选择——中国情境下的分析框架和经验证据

不断推进地方政府公共服务创新是破解当前公共服务供给困境,构建我国治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要组成部分。在对国内外相关文献分析的基础上,从政治制度、社会需求和资源支撑等视角出发,构建了中国情境下地方政府公共服务创新驱动机制的分析框架,通过模糊集定性比较分析的方法,对"中国地方政府创新奖"下公共服务创新类项目进行了系统比较分析。研究发现,在中国情境下,晋升激励是引致地方政府创新成功的充分条件,领导支持是驱动地方政府创新成功的必要条件;而在创新的代表性路径中,公民参与和媒体报道也发挥着重要作用,经济发展水平和改革本身的难度对创新工作的影响有限;行政主导型、需求诱发型和多方互动型的创新模式是我国地方政府公共服务创新时选择的主要路径模式。未来中央应更注重从制度层面激发地方政府公共服务的创新热情,降低社会公共服务需求的政府进入门槛,同时应注重激发公共服务创新要素组合的叠加效应。     

从法律援助的视角透析欠发达地区群众打官司难问题

法律援助作为国家维护困难群众合法权益、实现社会公平正义的一项法律制度对于保障和改善民生、构建和谐社会具有重要作用。在经济欠发达地区,政府提供的法律援助资源与群众的迫切需求形成了供需矛盾,需要通过强化政府责任、加大财政投入、引导社会援助的参与、提升服务质量等举措加以化解。     

Skill Specificity and Attitudes toward Immigration

Labor market competition theories explaining anti‐immigrant attitudes have received limited or no empirical validation in recent literature. This has led researchers to highlight education and cultural values as the main, if not the sole, drivers of attitudes toward immigration. We present a new labor market competition theory focusing on job availability rather than foreign labor supply. This theory predicts that individuals with low transferable skills in the labor market will articulate a subjective sense of job insecurity and higher hostility toward migrants. Our cross‐classified, longitudinal, and difference‐in‐differences models reveal that skill specificity is a strong driver of anti‐immigrant attitudes, and they suggest that economic competition theories cannot be dismissed. By shifting the attention from supply to demand in the labor market, and from actual to potential competition with migrants, we show that the highly educated are far from immune to anti‐immigrant attitudes.     

Declining employment among young black less‐educated men: The role of incarceration and child support

In this paper, we explore the continuing decline in employment and labor force participation of nonenrolled Black men between the ages of 16 and 34 who have a high school education or less in the 1980s and 1990s. We focus on two fairly new developments: (1) the dramatic growth in the number of young Black men who have been incarcerated and (2) strengthened enforcement of child support policies. We analyze micro‐level data from the Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Groups (CPS‐ORG), into which state‐level data over time on incarceration rates and child support enforcement have been merged. Our results indicate that previous incarceration and child support enforcement can account for half or more of the decline in employment activity among Black men aged 25–34. Previous incarceration also contributes to the decline among those aged 16–24. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management