Egypt versus Ethiopia: The Conflict over the Nile Metastasizes

Egypt and Ethiopia continue to oppose one another over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River basin, despite a succession of provisional multilateral agreements. Officials in Cairo insist that Egypt be guaranteed its “historic rights” to two-thirds of the river’s flow, while their counterparts in Addis Ababa demand an “equitable” distribution of water among all of the riparian countries. More important, Sudan’s shift in alignment from Egypt to Ethiopia has injected new tension into the dispute, and the sustained involvement of South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda and Eritrea heightens the likelihood that periodic crises will escalate into armed confrontations. Consequently, existing studies that offer sanguine assessments of the potential for a compromise settlement fail to address the key dynamics that drive the conflict.     

区域化整合的文化型经济：中国与东南亚变动关系中的种族和资本因素

本文探究东南亚各国华人在变化的更大区域中所起的作用。本文从文化和经济的理论视角来审慎地评价文化主义的观点,认为不应通过幼稚的文化主义公式化,而是可以通过探究在当代资本主义形成过程中各种经济、政治、文化和社会因素的相互影响和相互渗透,来获得比较正确的认识。     

东北亚的历史变局与中国的战略调整——以中日力量转移为线索

近一个半世纪以来,东北亚经历了"数千年未有之变局"。造成这一局面的原因纷繁复杂,但有一个因素十分关键,那就是发生在中日间的力量转移。历史和东北亚地缘结构均证明:作为地区主体板块,中国的强大是东北亚地区稳定的核心要素,东北亚力量中心向中国转移有助于促进东北亚安全机制的形成。但是,随着中日力量转移进入持平期,中日安全关系也将更加敏感、更加复杂,变数加大。中国必须充分把握这一趋势,塑造强国心态,构建新的身份认同,更加主动地推动地区安全与共同发展。     

国内外史学界关于俄乌关系史研究综述

苏联解体后,俄乌关系史成为国内外史学界特别是俄罗斯和乌克兰史学界研究的热点。目前,国内外学者在这一领域研究多集中在《佩列亚斯拉夫协议》及其影响、俄罗斯帝国版图内的乌克兰、乌克兰分离主义运动、乌克兰大饥荒、二战中的乌克兰、乌克兰独立等方面。由于从不同视角解读俄乌关系史,加之有些历史问题被人为政治化,学者们的研究结论存在明显差别。     

大辩论与大转折:朴槿惠时代中韩关系的反思与启示

朴槿惠执政的四年是中韩关系发展史上的一个关键时期,随着双边交往从蜜月陷入低潮,两国关系正处在建交25年以来的重大转折点上。本文通过梳理和总结朴槿惠时代中韩关系的发展历程认为,当前理论界就如何处理中韩关系存在着经中安美平衡中美和亲美疏中三派观点的激烈争论,而这一争论的发展轨迹与朴槿惠时代中韩关系的跌宕起伏息息相关。同时,理论之争从一个侧面也反映出中韩关系面临着经济交流难以开启安保合作,中国红利的副作用显现,中韩、美韩关系零和性凸显,中韩、中朝关系呈现双向受阻等四大亟待解决的难题。反思朴槿惠时代中韩关系的发展经验,两国的战略目标仍存错位,互信亟须提升,中韩、美韩关系零和性未有改善,对未来东亚秩序的安排也缺乏共同认知。因此,在文在寅时代,中韩两国应努力通过构建建设性并立的新模式来促成美韩同盟与中韩伙伴间的良性互动,建立双边战略经济对话机制以实现危机事件的有效管控,提升经贸交流的质量和优化红利的分配来推动贸易结构的转型,推行政经分离的双轨策略以创造有利于朝鲜弃核的内外环境,最终实现中韩战略关系的转型升级。     

A Long War in the East: Doctrine,Diplomacy, and the Prospects for a Protracted Sino-American Conflict

Increasing diplomatic tension between China and the United States has led to concerns about military conflict, possibly including rapid nuclear escalation. Scholars have spent less time considering the opposite scenario: protracted conventional war. This analysis explains why a combination of politics, geography, and technology may conspire to produce such a war, despite the fact that both sides are planning for a short, high-intensity fight. It shows how the Peloponnesian War, an ancient conflict fought with ancient weapons, nonetheless provides a warning of what might happen in the present. It also describes a grim trade off that American policy-makers will face in the event of war. Washington can take steps to reduce the chance of nuclear escalation, but in so doing will make a long war more likely. The conclusion describes the diplomatic challenge of war termination in a protracted conflict where neither side can compel the other to back down.     

东北地区水资源一体化管理研究

水资源一体化管理是东北地区区域整合的基础之一,也是节水型社会建设的根本要求。东北地区的水资源一体化管理虽有"松辽管理模式"等的发展基础,但在体制与机制、水市场建设、水资源安全等方面仍存在许多问题。借助国内外水资源管理的理论成果,认为东北地区的水资源一体化管理应该主要理顺管理体制和运行机制、进一步完善安全系统、加快水市场建设步伐、协调好区域水资源配置、加快全区域节水型社会建设。     

Focal Points and Turning Points in Negotiation: A Comparative Analysis

In this article, we examine the roles of focal points and turning points in negotiation. Both concern impasses in negotiation, and negotiators can exploit them to move past impasses. Each term uses the word “point” differently, however. A focal point refers to a single salient coordinating concept shared by the parties. A turning point is a departure that takes place during the course of a negotiation, when the course seems to change. Precipitants precede turning points and consequences follow them. In this article, we focus on the relationship of these two negotiation concepts. We raise the following questions: Does the development of focal points precipitate departures, and, if so, how? Do departures lead to the development of focal points, and, if so, how? Are there circumstances in which focal points do not precipitate turning points and vice versa? Do negotiations that feature focal points create more or less durable agreements? Do negotiations that include turning points create more or less durable agreements? To help answer these questions, we have analyzed four cases. In the German Foundation Agreement negotiation, the development of focal points precipitated turning points. In the South African Interim Constitution negotiations, turning point departures precipitated the development of focal points. And in the negotiations to end the Burundi civil war and to reach the Nouméa Accord between France and New Caledonia, parties shared focal points that did not precipitate turning points. These case analyses provide insights into the role of focal points in producing effective and durable agreements. They also suggest opportunities for further research on the interaction between these concepts.     

从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。     

析中俄关系中的相互认知与信任问题

从长远来说,中俄战略协作伙伴关系的稳定、健康、和谐发展,必须要妥善解决好进一步加强双方之间的相互理解与信任问题。中俄两国高层之间已经建立起了比较良好的友谊与互信,而在普通民众之间,现有社会调查和研究结果表明,目前还存在着一些相互了解与理解不足、缺乏相互认同与包容,因而也就缺乏相互欣赏与信任的问题。在这项长期的系统工程上面,中俄双方的有关方面都还需要做出大量而艰辛的工作。     

海湾地区国际关系研究的新作——读刘月琴的《冷战后海湾地区国际关系》

海湾地区是中东仅次于巴勒斯坦的热点地区，尤其在当前，美国意欲发动推翻萨达姆的新的海湾大战，这一地区更为举世瞩目。刘月琴研究员的新作《冷战后海湾地区国际关系》(社会科学文献出版社2002年版，36.3万字)，作为一部系统……     

美国国家安全战略视阈下的中美关系50年

自1972年中美关系“破冰”以来,美国国家安全战略视阈之内的中美关系经历了1972—1989年、1989—2017年以及2017年之后三个阶段。在这三个阶段中,制衡、塑造与争胜先后成为美国对华战略的逻辑核心。在第一阶段,美国对华的国家安全战略逻辑是“借重以制衡”,即借助中国来平衡苏联,中国在20世纪80年代一度被美国视为“友好的非盟国”。在持续时间最长的第二阶段,美国的国家安全战略逻辑是通过“接触以塑造”,希望塑造中国的政治经济模式以及对外行为方式。在20世纪90年代末期中国一度被美国视为潜在的战略伙伴。在2017年以来的第三阶段,美国试图通过“竞争以制胜”,防止中国的发展超越美国,美国国家安全战略视阈内的中国以及中美关系全面转向消极。50年来,中美关系经历过两次转向和重构,目前第二次转向和重构仍在进行中。过去50年,中美关系总是关系到美国全局性国家安全利益的重大问题;美国国家安全战略中的涉华部分超越党派之争,有着较强的一致性和连贯性,很多议题和提法都长期存在,或者早有伏笔。在美国国家安全战略中,涉华议题的内容越来越多,也越来越丰富;中美关系的合作面和竞争面都有明显增长,但竞争面的比重大幅上升。     

转型时期俄罗斯政治制度探析

俄罗斯实行宪政民主制度,要求有一部至高无上的宪法。并在宪法范围内推行民主制度,经过几年的改革,目前俄罗斯宪政制度的框架已基本建立起来。俄罗斯政治制度的最大特点是其过渡性,目前的民主化进程正处于由高度集权政治向民主政治过渡阶段——权威政治的初始阶段,要建立起真正现代意义上的民主政治制度还有漫长的道路要走。     

Getting Down to Basics: A Situated Model of Conflict in Social Relations

The field of conflict resolution is fractured. Despite many decades of fine research, we still lack a basic unifying framework that integrates the many theories of conflict dynamics. Thus, the findings from research on conflict are often piecemeal, decontextualized, contradictory, or focused on negative outcomes, which contributes to a persistent research‐practice gap. In this article, we describe a situated model for the study of conflict that combines separate strands of scholarship into a coherent framework for conceptualizing conflict in dyadic social relations. The model considers conflict interactions in the context of social relations and employs prior research on the fundamental dimensions of social relations to create a basic framework for investigating conflict dynamics. The resulting model is heuristic and generative. We discuss the theoretical context and main propositions of this model as well as its implications for conflict resolution practitioners.     

Gender Relations in a Refugee Camp: A Case of Chechens Seeking Asylum in the Czech Republic

This article aims to give an account of how refugees' familyrelations are constructed in exile. It is based on fieldworkconducted among Chechen asylum seekers living in a refugee campin the Czech Republic in April 2004. It argues that althoughtraditional norms defining women's and men's position in Chechenfamilies have often been transgressed in the actual experiencesof men and women in situations of emergency such as war, flightand life in the camp, they remain relatively unchanged at thelevel of refugees' ideal notions of femininity and masculinity.It also shows that the environment of the refugee camp provides,on the one hand, some opportunities for the increase of women'spower in the family and men's involvement in childcare and householdduties. But on the other hand, the assistance in the camp isbased on an undiversified and gender-blind perception and constructionof refugees as passive objects of aid, and latently sustainsgendered violence.     

政治转型中的制度因素：泰国选举制度改革研究

本文认为,泰国政局持续动荡的重要原因,在于各派政治利益集团在重新划定权力边界的政治转型过程中始终未能在政治制度层面达成显规则与潜规则的相互契合。尽管各方对改变“小党林立”格局存在共识,但“反他信”阵营的既得利益集团偏好“两党对峙”格局,而“挺他信”阵营的新兴利益集团倾向“一党优势”格局。由于两派都存在对“实际控制力一潜规则权力边界”的错位误判,使得各方难以通过选举制度的显规则调整来重新划定彼此间的权力边界,从而导致持续的政治冲突与角力。     

从“大宇”到“SK”:韩国财阀走上制度转型之路

韩国财阀是导致金融危机爆发的根本原因。韩国大宇汽车公司被美国通用汽车公司收购以及SK集团领导人崔泰源被判入狱在韩国乃至世界引起了极大的震动和激烈的争论。大宇和SK集团事件的象征意义在于 ,前者代表了韩国政企风险伙伴关系的真正解体 ,后者则代表了彻底改变财阀内部治理制度的真正开始。     

中国参与大湄公河次区域合作的进展、障碍与出路

大湄公河次区域合作对中国和东南亚5国的经济发展都有着重要的经济意义和社会意义。在过去的若干年里,这一合作已经取得了巨大成果,但是也出现了许多问题和矛盾,以至于这些问题和矛盾严重阻碍了进一步的合作与发展。为了解决这些障碍,文章提出了一些新的思考,希望突破目前的困境。     

图们江地区内域经济关系的量化分析

根据图们江地区内域经济关系的量化指标,该地区各国为互助型内域经济关系。因此,在建立图们江地区绿色食品基地这一决策上,应以延吉为龙头,协手该区域各县市依次产生互补,准确定位、合理分工,为与朝俄等邻国形成绿色食品生产基地链做好准备。     

A Game Changer in EU-Turkey Relations: The Opportunities and Pitfalls of Migration Policy

ABSTRACT

The mass migration from Syria has been a major turning point and an important ‘game changer’ in EU-Turkey relations, as it marks a watershed in immigration and asylum between two periods: from 1999 to 2011 and from 2011 to the present. During the first period, the EU was one of the driving forces of change in Turkey’s immigration and asylum policy, along with significant migration movements from the Middle East. Although EU demands were largely implemented due to the country’s changing migration profile, there was also ongoing resistance and reluctance towards the EU, thus a certain degree of conditionality. With the Syrian mass migration in 2011, however, and in particular the so-called ‘European refugee crisis’ in 2015, Turkey started to use migration as a foreign policy tool with which to oppose EU conditionality.