America is Back. Is Europe Back Too?

Within a resilient transatlantic alliance, political leadership and security forces can respond successfully to any crisis imposed, but without resilience the alliance will remain vulnerable to malign influences that seek to divide, sap physical and societal strength, and undermine the ability to respond to challenges—politically, economically, and militarily. Unity in a resilient security environment, with economic and political unity, is critical for defending against authoritarian regimes that aim to “divide and conquer.”     

Rebel-to-political and back? Hamas as a security provider in Gaza between rebellion,politics and governance

ABSTRACT

After winning the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections and subsequently taking control of the Gaza Strip in the summer of 2007, the Palestinian Hamas – a hybrid political, social and military actor – undertook a complex process to ascertain authority and control over Gaza. The article focuses on understanding Hamas’s performance as a political party and a “rebel government” as well as the impact of this newly acquired role on the group’s strategy. Relying on primary sources, field-work and interviews with members of the Hamas government and its security sector, the study looks at Hamas’s role as a security provider and analyses the complex relationship between the institutionalized security sector and the group’s insurgent armed wing. Examining Hamas’s logic as a security provider and exploring the inherent tensions between political and insurgent logics allows for a better understanding of both the rebel group’s role as a political actor and the broader challenges behind the successful rebel-to-political transformations of non-state armed organizations. In doing so it contributes to the emerging literature on non-state actors’ shifts between ballots and bullets and on their potential role as alternative governance providers.     

Interpretations of political violence in ethnically divided societies

This article challenges traditional interpretations of political violence in Northern Ireland. Based on a series of ethnographic studies undertaken in republican and loyalist communities in Belfast, Northern Ireland, I argue that it is the question of state legitimacy, not materialism, culture or religion, that is core to understanding the underpinnings and history of political violence in Northern Ireland. Research findings suggest that communal support for and tolerance of paramilitary groups and their tactics are underpinned by security‐related concerns and a crisis of legitimacy which renders the state unable to claim a monopoly on the use of force. In contradistinction to counter‐insurgency theorists, I argue that the basis for paramilitarism is not created by fear of reprisal or intimidation. Rather, intra‐communal fears of identity loss and threats (both perceived and real) from the outgroup have created a space for republicanism and loyalism in both its political and paramilitary forms.     

国家维护能源安全手段的选择逻辑：产权制度的视角

经济体量、能源禀赋、对外能源依赖程度等相仿的国家在应对同一场或情境相似的能源危机时所采用的手段经常呈现出明显的差异,以美国为代表的一部分国家主要依托行政或外交手段,而以中国为代表的另一部分国家则更依赖行政与商业的组合手段。为解释这一差异,就要突破能源安全研究惯有的地缘政治与供给需求分析视角,借助产权制度来考察政府与企业的权利责任边界以及政府借助企业力量维护能源安全的可能性和成本。基于美国应对1973年石油危机与中国应对2017年天然气紧缺的实证研究以及英法两国应对1973年石油危机的补充性分析,可以发现产权制度决定了企业的自主性与政府的处置成本。研究表明,在私有产权制度下,能源公司的自主性与政府的处置成本均较高,政府难以借助能源公司的力量应对能源危机,由此独自采取行政或外交手段保障能源安全;在公有产权制度下,能源公司的自主性与政府的处置成本均较低,政府更容易借助能源公司的力量应对能源危机,由此两者共同承担维护能源安全的责任并通过行政与商业相结合的手段维护能源安全。     

NATO and the Arctic: is the Atlantic alliance a cold war relic in a peaceful region now faced with non-military challenges?

Abstract

This article analyzes which role the Atlantic Alliance plays in the Arctic and whether it can contribute to the security and territorial integrity of its members in the region. In a dramatic change from the cold war era, the Arctic is no longer at the center of a conflict between two hostile superpowers. But what can a basically military organization such as NATO – though with proven political functions – contribute to stabilizing the Arctic region if its major challenges are non-military? With regional challenges resulting mostly from globalization and climate change, it is open to question whether a military alliance such as NATO has the will and the capability to cope with them. We might thus need to look also at individual members’ interests and abilities besides searching for joint alliance action. If we find NATO not up to the challenges, which alternative institutions offer themselves for coping with the political conflicts and controversies in the Polar region?     

The political origins of South Korea's economic crisis: Is democratization to blame?

Different explanations have been presented regarding the recent economic crisis in South Korea. After critically evaluating these explanations, the article modifies and refines the dominant model, the mea culpa paradigm, to develop a political, interactive and integrative explanation of the crisis. The economic breakdown during the Kim Young Sam regime in Korea (1993–98) was mainly due to the Kim government's failure to carry out its well‐intended economic reforms, particularly chaebol reforms. The reasons for the failure of the economic reforms, in turn, consist of a set of political factors, including President Kim's distinctive leadership style encapsulated by ‘decretistic populism’, the chaebôl's effective cultural strategies of agenda denial and an anti‐reform campaign by conservative social forces. In this respect, the economic crisis in Korea is also a political crisis. The article refutes a popular interpretation within Korea that blames democracy for the economic crisis, demonstrating that there is at best a very tenuous relationship between the democratization in the country since 1987 and the economic crisis. To overcome the crisis, the current Kim Dae Jung government in Korea should avoid decretistic populism, forge and maintain a constructive alliance with civil society groups and develop a solid coalition for economic reform.     

One Plus Four: What NATO’s New Strategic Concept Should Say and How to Achieve It

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) must pivot to address a new era of persistent threats and disruptive challenges unbounded by geography. Reaffirming NATO’s cohesion as an alliance of democracies will be paramount. Each of NATO’s core tasks—defense and deterrence, crisis management, and cooperative security—must evolve to meet new dangers. The Alliance should add a fourth core task of comprehensive resilience: the ability to anticipate, prevent, and, if necessary, protect against and move forward from disruptions to critical functions of allied societies. A more capable Europe is essential to each of these tasks.     

Nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula: strategic adaptation,the Abe administration and extended deterrence in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

In the wake of two nuclear tests in 2016, an additional test in 2017 and a series of missile launches by North Korea in 2016–17, Japan's government is facing a critical set of security challenges. These require adaptation and careful planning by the Abe administration and raise important questions about the future of Japanese defence policy, alliance relations with the United States, and cooperation between Japan and the Republic of Korea. The following article considers both the history and current state of relations between Tokyo, Washington and Seoul, the relationship between elite and public opinion within Japan, and the character of Prime Minister Abe's leadership at a time of acute strategic risk. While the danger of conflict in northeast Asia should not be minimized, the gravity of the current crisis potentially offers an important opportunity for policy innovation for the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).     

German crisis management and leadership—from ignorance to procrastination to action

The financial crisis of 2008 and even more so the crisis of the Eurozone drastically increased the demand for decisive leadership and public crisis management. Due to the size of its economy and its position in the global as well as in the European economy, Germany should take the lead in this crisis management. Germany’s management of the two crises differs but also shows strong similarities. A “center-left Grand Coalition” managed the global financial crisis; a global crisis in which Germany was one among several relevant global players. A center-right government under the leadership of the same chancellor then during the sovereign debt crisis manages the Eurozone crisis. This is a regional crisis but with global implications. German government was slow in responding to both crises but acted eventually after some procrastination. Both cases, however, differ with regards to Germany’s actual role in crisis management. During the global financial crisis, other global actors pushed Germany to the forefront. The Eurozone crisis, a regional crisis, demands a leading role of Germany, the largest economy and member state of the EU. The paper, however, argued that the German crisis management with regards to the Eurozone is very much driven by ideas that preserve German norms but do not live up to the challenges of the crisis. Germany’s insistence in its own interests and norms hinders the delivery of a comprehensive crisis management of the Eurozone crisis within the European Union.     

Security,profit or shadow of the past? Explaining the security strategies of microstates

Which factors determine the security strategies of microstates? Many microstates are either secluded island states or have very close political, economic and cultural ties to a larger neighbouring ‘protector state’. They have had, therefore, little use for more traditional alliance arrangements. However, the patterns of security cooperation between states have shifted as the significance of flexible ad-hoc coalition-building as a means to coordinate international interventions has increased. Consequently, the strategic security challenges and opportunities for microstates have been transformed. Focusing on the Operation Iraqi Freedom coalition, this article explores some of these challenges and opportunities. Three hypotheses regarding the decisions made by the respective microstates to join international ad-hoc coalitions are studied: (1) participation provides increased security, (2) participation provides economic gains, and (3) participation reflects the lessons of past security challenges. The explanatory powers of each hypothesis are examined using a comparative case study of 11 Pacific microstates.     

菲律宾政治集团在南海问题上的共识、分歧及成因

菲律宾国内各政治集团对菲律宾南海政策的制定产生程度不一的影响。基于维护本国利益的国家本位意识和立场,菲律宾各政治集团在南海问题上的共识有:坚持菲律宾所占据的南海岛礁的“主权”;要求以《联合国海洋法公约》为依据来解决南海争端;坚持南海仲裁“裁决”,等等。而硬实力的不足、美国安全承诺的不确定、中国在南海问题上的克制与和平立场以及菲律宾民情等因素导致菲律宾各政治集团在一定程度上达成通过和平方式解决南海问题的共识。除了对策略手段运用的不同理解导致的分歧,菲律宾各政治集团在南海问题上的分歧主要体现在对于菲美同盟及菲美双边军事协议存在着认同与强烈反对的不同声音,其深层原因来自于要求独立自主的反美民族主义与菲律宾国家安全需要之间的矛盾。菲律宾后续仍可能试图以南海“仲裁”结果对中国进行“软”抗争;菲美军事安全合作仍有强化的可能;中菲南海双边谈判以及共同开发协议有可能会随着菲律宾国内政治形势的变动而受到影响,存在较大变数。     

竞争时代日本多维度联合防卫力战略构建及其影响

日本新防卫战略把日本的防卫力量从传统的海陆空领域扩展至多维度的太空、网络以及电磁波等新领域,重视各领域之间的彼此融合防卫。作为一个综合性防卫战略,它强调从平时到"有事"各阶段之间、自主防卫与日美同盟及多层次安保合作之间、"前方战场"和"后方体制"之间的综合防卫。为实现"跨领域作战",日本提出了优先项目和强化重点,侧重在太空、网络、电磁波等新领域内获得并强化相关防卫能力。同时日本也加强提升传统领域内的海空能力、导弹防御及防区外打击能力,并对自卫队的体制进行相应调整。新防卫战略与"印太构想"融合,进一步深化了日本立体跨域防卫体系。日本"多维度联合防卫力量"新战略具有深刻的竞争时代背景,为配合美国军事战略调整并强化日美同盟、对竞争时代安全情势的判断与主动应对、积极加入全球军事变革下新领域内的激烈竞争、更好地应对岛屿争端及加强海洋防卫等现实问题,这是日本谋求构建新防卫战略的深刻动因。该日本新防卫战略产生的影响包括:日本的防卫自主或更难实现、进一步改变战后日本的安全战略基点、在新安全领域引发竞争及不利于构建良好的中日建设性安全关系等。对此,中国需进一步增强本国综合性实力,积极推动日本对华安全释疑,扩大中日防卫交流与安全对话,增进两国的安全互信。     

The Future Foretold: Lyndon Baines Johnson’s Congressional Support for Israel

Lyndon B. Johnson became a senator the year of Israel’s creation: 1948. Moral, political, and strategic considerations guided Johnson’s outspoken support for Israel from an early point in his political career. This analysis reveals that Johnson’s advocacy of Israel whilst a senator foreshadowed his policy as president of championing the Israeli-American military-strategic alliance. Beginning with his time in Congress, Johnson had many Jewish American friends supporting the establishment of a Jewish state and, due to the importance of Jewish-American backing of the Democratic Party, Johnson supported Israel for significant political reasons. From a moral and strategic perspective starting in the 1950s, Johnson believed that Israel served as a humanitarian refuge for Jews in the aftermath of the Holocaust and, as a liberal democracy, was well suited to oppose the expansion of Soviet influence and communism in the Cold War Middle East. For these reasons, Johnson supported the initiation of American aid to Israel in the early 1950s, which would presage decisions to arm Israel with the first American tanks and fighter jets as president. As a senator, Johnson staunchly opposed President Dwight Eisenhower’s threat to impose sanctions against Israel if it did not withdraw from Egyptian territories occupied in the 1956 Suez crisis. Johnson’s stance on Suez – that Israel deserved greater security guarantees prior to withdrawal – would starkly parallel his policy following the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.     

From a Sub-Continental Power to an Asia-Pacific Player: India’s Changing Identity

This article aims to argue that identity is an important variable in determining the motivational disposition of the Indian state’s external security behavior. It offers a constructivist explanation to India’s increasing engagement with the Asia-Pacific region and argues that India’s deepening engagement with the region is a reflection of its desire to craft a new external identity for itself – the identity of an “Asia-Pacific player.” The desire for an “Asia-Pacific identity” is in part precipitated by Indian political elite’s perception of a crisis in India’s external identity immediately after the end of the Cold War, along with its intuitive desire for recognition within the international system. This ongoing identity shift offers to explain many visible changes in India’s post-Cold War foreign security behavior.     

Japan’s Middle East Policy, 1972–1974: Resources Diplomacy,Pro-American Policy,and New Left

Commentators generally accept that the Yom Kippur War and subsequent oil crisis crystallised Japan’s overtly pro-Arab stance. This analysis challenges that view—even after the oil embargo, Japan’s Middle Eastern policy was both discretely and, at times, blatantly pro-American. Admittedly, the Japanese government had a seemingly ambiguous attitude towards the Arab–Israeli conflict and on-going conflict between oil-producing countries and oil companies; however, responsible for formulating the Arab–Israeli policy, the Foreign Ministry preferred to follow American leadership in the region for reasons of national security and Cold War imperatives. The Foreign Ministry’s response to the 1972 Lod Airport Massacre, a radicalised Japanese New Left terrorist attack, revealed a determination to gain international credibility by more actively supporting the West. Lod buttressed the influence of the pro-American contingent in the government; and the 1973 Arab oil embargo did not undermine their position. Although the Cabinet eventually issued a public statement supporting the Arab cause to satisfy the Japanese public, the pro-American contingent succeeded surreptitiously in bringing the Cabinet together to uphold the American-led petroleum order as well as United States leadership in Cold War politics.     

Twilight on the British Gulf: The 1961 Kuwait Crisis and the Evolution of American Strategic Thinking in the Persian Gulf

The 1961 Kuwait crisis stands as a key event in the evolution of American strategic thinking on the Persian Gulf. Following Iraqi threats to annex Kuwait, Britain despatched a sizable military force to the Emirate hoping to pre-empt an Iraqi invasion. When the Iraqi invasion failed to occur, Britain was forced to weather a political maelstrom as it struggled to withdraw its forces. Although the United States was largely an observer to the crisis, London's actions required Washington to acknowledge the limits of Britain to meet the political challenges of the Middle East and protect Western interests in the region. This realisation provided the impetus for Washington to diversify its strategy in the Persian Gulf and increasingly seek regional solutions for its security concerns.     

The power of Trump-speak: populist crisis narratives and ontological security

Abstract

For most observers, the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States (US) came as a shock. This has been widely recast as the culmination of the American public’s long-standing dissatisfaction with the political elite and deep-seated frustrations with broader socio-economic conditions. We argue that the Trump campaign’s success also stemmed from its effective use of an emotionally charged, anti-establishment crisis narrative. With insights from political psychology, we examine the socio-linguistic mechanisms that underlie the effectiveness of ‘Trump-speak’ through both quantitative and qualitative content analysis of Trump’s communications toolkit during the 2016?US presidential election campaign. We show that his leadership legitimation claims rest significantly upon ‘crisis talk’ that puts his audience in a loss frame with nothing to lose and explain why ‘crisis talk’ impacts on political behaviour. As we demonstrate, the crisis stories that political agents tell simultaneously instil ontological insecurity among the American public and serve to transform their anxiety into confidence that the narrator’s policy agendas are the route back to ‘normality’. Through these rhetorical mechanisms, the Trump campaign manipulated individuals’ ontological (in)security as a tool in the politics of reassurance at the broader, societal level.     

中国边疆跨境非传统安全：挑战与应对

中国边疆邻国众多、民族多样、文化多元,地缘政治与周边环境复杂。在深度全球化时代,各国利益相互镶嵌,安全互依互保。随着中国全面扩大对外开放以及"一带一路"倡议的推进,边疆跨境非传统安全问题愈加复杂多元,互为关联,关涉政治、经济、文化、生态、公共卫生等诸多领域,涵盖地缘、认同、利益与网络等不同安全场域,并融入周边安全、国际安全与人类安全之中。在新形势下,边疆跨境非传统安全及其治理呈现出越来越多的新问题与新难题,只有以总体国家安全观为指导,促进国际与国内相涉行为体之间的协同共治,加强边疆跨境非传统安全全方位、多层次的体系性治理,才能有利于推进维护总体国家安全。     

Legitimacy and protest under authoritarianism: explaining student mobilization in Egypt and Morocco during the Arab uprisings

Political protests constitute a major concern to authoritarian regimes. Existing research has argued that they indicate a lack of regime legitimacy. However, empirical evidence on the relationship between legitimacy and protest participation remains rare. Based on new survey data from Morocco and Egypt, this study investigates whether legitimacy played a significant role in student mobilization during the 2011 uprisings. In doing so, we first develop a context-sensitive concept of legitimacy. This allows us to differentiate the ruler’s legitimacy claims and the citizens’ legitimacy beliefs. Furthermore, we distinguish between two different objects of legitimacy: the broader political community and specific regime institutions. Our empirical analysis suggests that legitimacy had an independent and significant impact on students’ protest participation, yet in more nuanced ways than generally assumed. While protest participation was driven by nationalist sentiments in Egypt, it was motivated by dissatisfaction with the political performance of specific regime institutions in Morocco.     

The US-Japan Alliance Dilemma in the Asia-Pacific: Changing Rationales and Scope

ABSTRACT

The changes in the US-Japan alliance are taking place in times of a global power shift – a transition from unipolarity to multipolarity – and China’s challenge to the US’ security dominance in the Asia-Pacific. The alliance security dilemma now manifests itself in the rise of ‘entrapment’ concerns for Washington and ‘abandonment’ anxieties for Tokyo. The US increasingly insists on more mutuality in alliance arrangements, while seeking to maintain ambiguity in its defence commitments to Japan. The relative decline of US power and the fluid regional security architecture, however, incentivise Japan to step up preparations for abandonment. Although Tokyo’s hedging strategy contributes to enhancement of the bilateral alliance in the short term, it also paves the way for Japan’s pursuit of strategic autonomy in the medium to long term.