China’s growth adjustment: moderation and structural changes

The recent slowdown in the Chinese economy is interpreted in two dimensions: a long-run, structural shift toward a moderation in China’s earlier high growth pace, and a short-run, mainly cyclical, adjustment to the earlier economic overheating. Main causes of the long-run shift are export deceleration, rising wage compensation, and higher energy import dependence, which all tend to lead Chinese investment growth and economic growth to scale down now and in the future, though possibly continuing on a fairly high pace around 8 %. On the other hand, the short-run one is a correction process, often complicated by external shocks. When policy over-reacts, the process of growth moderation—the long-run shift—would be possibly delayed. A more prudent macroeconomic policy should help China to carry through the task of growth adjustment. The process also bears significant implications for structural changes and rebalancing: convergence between consumption growth and investment growth; convergence between import and export growths; convergence in economic growth between China’s inland and coastal regions.     

What Obscures the Skill Content Embodied in China's Net Export?

China will exert a great impact on the world market after its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) with its labor-intensive exports, since China has more than 20% of the world's population.¹ Among which farmers make up 78.1% of the share.² This paper intends to measure the skill content embodied in China's net exports by using Maskus' (1994) methodology. The empirical results indicate that other factors tend to overshadow ranking of the skill content. It goes against the conventional wisdom that the Chinese farmers are not regarded as an abundant factor. The paradoxical result can be explained by mismatching of resources, identical homothetic preference and quality of input. Migration from rural areas to the coastal regions within the country will accelerate after China's entry to WTO. Moreover, upgrading of the skill content becomes imperative for China in its adjustment of export structure and resource allocation.     

SCM agreement says “No” to charges against RMB exchange rate as export subsidy

Recently one of the big charges raised mainly by the US against RMB exchange rate is the so-called undervaluation of RMB exchange rate as constituting a subsidy for China’s exports, the US even threatens to refer it to international or domestic settlement. However, the study on the provisions of subsidy, i.e., financial contribution, benefit conferral and specificity, the SCM Agreement indicates that RMB exchange rate neither constitutes financial contribution in art. 1.1 of the SCM Agreement, nor comes in line with the Illustrative List of the Agreement. The prevailing exchange rate of RMB is the only benchmark for the measurement of the value of RMB except that no other methods are available to be used to properly determine whether RMB exchange rate confers any benefit to exporters. As regards specificity requirement, RMB exchange rate is unspecific, on the contrary, it is among the policy measures for the government to regulate economy.     

Sino-Indian Liberalization: The Role of Trade and Foreign Investment

Two major factors account for a country’s growing integration with the global economy: trade and foreign investment; expansion of exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Growth of exports became a dominant source of industrial growth during the 1980s in most developing countries (see Helleiner, 1995). Most of these countries including China and India, have replaced the old import-substitution policy by an export promotion strategy. Both domestic and international factors played an important role in the shift of national policies to repay debts. The process of globalization already underway necessitated export orientation for improving technology, management practices, marketing and international competitiveness. This paper aims at exploring the contributions of exports and FDI to growth and economic liberalization in China and lndia. The first section briefly reviews similarities and differences in the two economies. The second section deals with growth, composition and direction of foreign trade. The third section examines the role of FDI, and its sources and composition by sector, industry, and by overseas ethnic Chinese and Indians. Trade and FDI linkages are examined in the fourth section which also contains a brief case study of Guangdong (China).     

The dynamic interactions among foreign direct investment, economic growth, exports and unemployment: evidence from Taiwan

The vector autoregression (VAR) method of variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis was applied to analyze dynamic relationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, unemployment, and trade in Taiwan. The analysis results show that both economic growth and exports have positive impacts on FDI inflow; however, export expansion has a negative impact on FDI outflow. FDI inflow also has an obvious positive impact on exports and economic performance. The evidence also shows that there is no relationship between FDI inflow and unemployment. In addition, we found that a positive relationship exists between economic growth and exports while a negative relationship exists between unemployment and economic growth.     

The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia

The present study examines whether the Russian economy exhibits the symptoms of the Dutch Disease over the transition period begun in the early 1990s. Five warning signs have been detected, namely, a real exchange rate appreciation (1); a flourishing economic situation pushed by higher oil prices (2); a relative de-industrialisation (3); an export reduction in the non-booming-sector (4) and a real wage growth (5). The first three symptoms are estimated simultaneously in a VECM dimension. The results suggest the existence of three long-run cointegrating vectors, thus confirming the presence of the first three symptoms. Specifically, a 10% oil price shock leads to a real appreciation by 4%, a rise in GDP by 3% and a decline in domestic manufacturing production vis-à-vis service production by another 3%. Finally, a number of manufacturing exports have been crowded out and real wages have recorded important increases. To a certain extent, this corroborates the presence of symptom 4 and 5. The paper concludes that the risk of the Dutch Disease exists, and two preventive thrusts of action could be undertaken to reduce its threat: namely to diversify the economy and to hold back the appreciation of the exchange rate through targeted fiscal and monetary policies. These instruments would render Russia less vulnerable to exogenous shocks.     

Explaining China's approach to investor-state dispute settlement reform: A contextual perspective

China's approach to ISDS reform is widely perceived as undecided and ambiguous. This paper provides the first detailed analysis of China's submission to the UNITRAL Working Group III and situates China's approach in the context of global dialogue of ISDS reform and competing reform proposals. The paper shows that China's open, flexible, and evolving approach to ISDS reform could be better understood by a contextual evaluation of the pertinent factors which have contributed to its formation. Moreover, this paper explains why China did not sign up to the EU's investment court system (ICS) proposal in the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). Lastly, the paper argues that China should reconsider its attitude towards the ICS in the CAI context and that the EU's recent suggestion that the envisaged multilateral investment court may adopt an ‘open architecture’ is likely to enhance its appeal to China.     

The Chinese mafia: private protection in a socialist market economy

Gambetta's theoretical framework focuses on two important aspects directly relating to the birth and development of mafias, namely a demand for private protection and a supply of the same. In the Post-Mao era, China started its transition from a centrally controlled economy to a market-directed economy by adopting reform and opening-up policies. The widespread creation of property rights has exponentially enlarged the demand for protection. However, property rights are ambiguously defined in the Chinese legal system, and the state is unable and unwilling to provide efficient and sufficient law enforcement mechanisms for needy people because of the rampant corruption of government officials and the weak judicial system. In this case, the mafia that is interested in the private provision of protection developed into an alternative enforcement mechanism for ‘securing’ property rights in China's economic transition. The most important service offered by the mafia in China is not only to assist business enterprises in monopolising the market, but also to assist local government in China's economic reform.     

Dilemmas of U.S. export control of technology to China [1]

Technology transfer from the U.S. and its allies to China is basically a combination of West-East and North-South characteristics. China's “unbalanced” development strategy for the past several decades has resulted in some technologically advanced military fields, like strategic nuclear forces, and a strikingly backward civilian sector. This uniqueness confounds U.S. decisions on export control of potential military technology to China, whereas western Europe and Japan can take full advantage of the economic opportunities beginning in the late 1970s. The U.S. relative disadvantage in economic terms as compared with its allies in dealing with China is hypothesized to be more serious than when dealing with the Soviet group. Meanwhile, the U.S. policy to ban some critical technologies to China may also be eroded by China's concerted efforts to get access to them and the informal channels rooted in the extensive Chinese network in the U.S. science and technology community.     

China's exchange rate and the balance of trade

This paper examines the responsiveness of the balance of trade of the People's Republic of China to the real exchange rate. We find that, in both the short-run and the long-run, devaluation serves to improve the balance of trade. Using quarterly data for 1980:I to 1989:IV we show that the bulk of the response to devaluation occurs over a one year period, with noJ-curve effect. These results suggest that the two-tier price system and other measures to liberalize the Chinese economy have made the exchange rate an effective indirect tool for regulating trade.     

Creative Death Penalty Reform in China: The Case of Drug Transportation

China's criminal justice system has, for decades, been consistently notorious as one of the world's most punitive. Recent reform of the nation's decades‐long harsh criminal justice policy to instead balance severity with greater leniency has given reformist‐minded judges and legal experts some cause for optimism. However, it has also created a judicial dilemma in determining how to apply this more lenient ethos in sentencing some capital crimes. This is particularly the case for the capital crime of transporting drugs, which is the focus of this article. This article reveals how reform can be achieved through skillful legal maneuvering for a crime category that is caught between two contesting views of the social benefits of punishment.     

人民币汇率争端的法律分析

人民币汇率问题成为近年来国际社会关注焦点,特别是美国参众两院先后通过关于汇率改革法案,不断质疑人民币汇率政策。汇率主权是国家货币主权的应有之义,主权国家有权决定并且改变本国的货币价值,不受其他国家干涉。一些国家对人民币汇率问题的指控,如汇率操纵、汇率偏差、或者是构成"出口补贴",都可以从法理上看到漏洞。根据国际货币基金组织和世界贸易组织的相关规则不足以判定人民币汇率违反国际义务。中国政府应该在坚持货币主权原则的基础上,通过灵活的法律手段解决人民币汇率争端,促进人民币汇率市场化改革,寻求国际合作以推进人民币国际化进程。     

China��s exports in information communication technology and its impact on Asian countries

This paper analyzes the export growth of China??s information communication technology (ICT) products in two major markets Japan and the US from 1995 to 2008 and its competition with six East Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Korea. The analysis shows that China has emerged as the largest single supplier of ICT products to both markets. By 2008, China??s exports accounted for 44 and 38% of total Japanese and the US ICT imports respectively. On the other hand, market shares of the six East Asian countries either remained stagnant or decreased substantially. The analysis by destination markets and by product categories indicates that, there exist significant negative correlations between market shares of China and that of the six East Asian countries, implying that the rapid expansion of China??s ICT exports crowded out exports of its East Asian competitors.     

Law and policy of platform economy in China

China is experiencing a phenomenal expansion of platform economy fuelled by the advancement of information and communication technologies. It has become a global frontrunner in many sectors, including commerce, finance, and entertainment. A comprehensive law and policy narrative, however, is largely absent from English academic literature. This paper seeks to fill this gap by analysing the dynamic relationship of industrial development, policy engagement and regulation construction in one of the prime sectors of platform economy: Electronic Commerce (E-commerce). China's E-commerce market rose to global dominance shortly after its origination in the mid-1990s. This paper holds that such an expeditious ascendency is nourished by carefully designed public policies. To implement these policies, also to redress information asymmetries and other pertinacious market failures, a tailored regulatory paradigm has been instigated. This regulatory paradigm manifests a new mode of polycentric, participatory, and collaborative governance that strives to balance interest disparities between various stakeholders. The dynamic relationship exemplified in China's E-commerce market would provide a valuable indication for administering other sectors of platform economy not only in China but also across other jurisdictions that openly embrace commercial innovations in the context of information technological transformation.     

1952年司法改革运动与法学界的反思——以北京市旧司法人员清理与改造为视角

1952年至1953年的司法改革运动是新中国成立后第一次司法改革,其理念与制度产物仍影响着现今司法体制的建构.司法改革运动的一条隐形动因是破解"案多人少",重塑审判工作模式,为新中国司法制度提供"人民属性"的法理诠释,并尝试建设"政治维度"、"人民维度"和"法律维度"和谐共生的新型司法制度.1957年整风期间,法学界对司法改革运动进行了反思与批判,但囿于意识形态干扰,最终酿成"反击右倾扩大化",导致"案多人少"的矛盾更加突出,司法制度全面倾斜"政治维度",进而演变成为新中国法制建设的灾难.     

Are LNG Exports in the Public Interest?

The United States has seen an enormous increase in the natural gas supply in the last three years. Several proposals to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been submitted and are currently under review at the Department of Energy/Office of Fossil Energy (DOE/FE). The Natural Gas Act requires the DOE/FE to consider whether the LNG exports are in the public interest before licensing export terminals. Although exporting to Free Trade Agreement member countries is de facto in the public interest, LNG exports to nonmember countries remains a hotly disputed and politically relevant question.     

Fixed Investment and Economic Growth in China

This paper attempts to investigate empirically the investment-growth relationship in China. Using the exogeneity framework pioneered by Engle et al. (1983) and Engle and Hendry (1993), we find that fixed investment is a key determinant of China's economic growth, which, surprisingly, has not been rigorously examined in the literature. The super exogeneity test results suggest that there exists a robust (or structurally invariant) relationship between capital formation and income growth, thereby giving credence to policy evaluation.     

Long Han SCM Agreement Says “No” to Charges against RMB Exchange Rate as Export Subsidy

Recently one of the big charges raised mainly by the US against RMB exchange rate is the so-called undervaluation of RMB exchange rate as constituting a subsidy for China’s exports, the US even threatens to refer it to international or domestic settlement. However, the study on the provisions of subsidy, i.e., financial contribution, benefit conferral and specificity, the SCM Agreement indicates that RMB exchange rate neither constitutes financial contribution in art. 1.1 of the SCM Agreement, nor comes in line with the listings of the Illustrative List of the Agreement. The prevailing exchange rate of RMB is the only benchmark for the measurement of the value of RMB except that no other methods are available to be used to properly determine whether RMB exchange rate confers any benefit to exporters. As regards specificity requirement, RMB exchange rate is unspecific, on the contrary, it is among the policy measures for the government to regulate economy.     

Reforming Europe's Common Foreign and Security Policy

Abstract: The reform of the constitutional foundations of Europe's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) featured prominently on the agenda of the European Convention. To the great surprise of many observers the much lamented absence of a common European response to the war in Iraq did not prevent the Convention from agreeing upon an ambitious reform package in the foreign‐policy field. This article explores the legal implications of the new institutional balance for European foreign policy envisaged by the Convention against the background of the achievements and deficiencies of Europe's existing foreign policy regime. Thereby, we shall see in how far the Convention has met the original goal set by the Laeken European Council to consider reform steps to strengthen the Union's ability to ‘shoulder its responsibilities in the governance of globalisation.’ 1     

Has Fiscal Federalism Worked for Macroeconomic Purposes? The Chinese Experience 1994–2003

China’s central government undertook a major tax regime reform in 1994 that was characterized by fiscal federalism. In hindsight, it may be seen to be more emphatic on the revenue side than on the expenditure side. It has achieved a certain success both for revenue shifting and inflation-fighting purposes. However, the reform and its subsequent follow-ups have not clearly addressed some fundamental issues in China’s government finance system, such as overhauling the function of government finance and redrawing lines between the center and subnational governments with regard to their fiscal responsibilities and duties. Moreover, movements towards fiscal federalism may have actually increased fiscal burdens on the economy, especially on domestic sectors of the economy. Coupled with enhanced policy support to China’s external development, fiscal federalism may have further helped accelerate resource shifts towards the external sector, thus resulting in an unprecedented rapid expansion in China’s exports since the mid-1990s.