How is the EU-ASEAN FTA viewed by ASEAN stakeholders?

Since April 2007, the EU Commission has been entrusted to start negotiating a FTA with ASEAN countries. Being enshrined in the logic contained in its ‘Global Europe strategy’, the proposed EU-ASEAN FTA finds its economic rationale in the expected overall positive impact found by most econometric studies on the topic. This article argues that although beneficial, these studies are limited conceptually and methodologically. In particular, they are unable to tackle the issue of differentiated effects on several groups of stakeholders. By analysing, through a questionnaire, the opinion of a number of ASEAN stakeholders, this article brings complementary information on the perception of the planned EU-ASEAN FTA by these different stakeholders. Whilst offering many opportunities, the FTA presents also a number of risks, the most critical one being the costs of adjustment, particularly for poorer ASEAN member countries. This paper draws partly on research work conducted jointly with F. Nicolas as part of a research contract for the European Commission DG Trade

---

A case of failed interregionalism? Analyzing the EU-ASEAN free trade agreement negotiations

In 2007, the European Union (EU) and the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) started interregional negotiations on a free trade agreement, which failed 2 years later. Relying on document analysis and elite interviews with officials from the EU and ASEAN’s members, this article addresses why and the extent to which the interregional negotiations failed. By rooting the theoretical model in a power-based approach, the analysis demonstrates that the EU has attempted to secure its economic and regulatory power in Southeast Asia. In striving for such power, interregionalism was initially the intuitive way because the EU perceived ASEAN as a cohesive bloc. However, the EU’s ambitious vision for comprehensive agreements clashed with the actual heterogeneity of ASEAN member states. The failure of the interregional approach is, thus, a result of the EU’s delicate balance between political and economic interests in Southeast Asia, which it pursues with trade-specific issues.     

EU perceptions through the FTA lens: main results of interviews among the Korean “elites”

The Korea–EU relations have undergone a substantive change during the last two decades. The bilateral Framework Agreement, which was first signed in 1996 and updated in 2009, has upgraded the bilateral relationship to a considerable extent. The common membership of Korea and the EU to the Asia–Europe Meeting (ASEM) has also expanded and deepened the channels of official contacts between the two parties. Among these factors, the Korea–EU FTA Agreement, which was initialed in October 2009, appears to have the potential to affect the relationship most strongly. The results of elites’ interviews conducted during September 2009–April 2010 largely verifies this in a number of interesting aspects. Especially, most of the Korean elites perceive the Korea–EU FTA as an opportunity to maximize the effects arising from “the expanded markets”, “reduced market risks” and “harmonized European business practices leading to reduced transactions costs”. This also has had substantially positive impact on their perception of the EU’s importance to Korea.     

Securing the global city?: an analysis of the ‘Medellín Model’ through participatory research

This article explores the potential contribution to a better understanding and practice of urban security from participatory research methodologies with communities most affected by insecurity and violence. It focusses on the case of Medellín, Colombia, and analyses the key features and impacts of what is known as the ‘Medellín Model’, an approach to urban security widely regarded as innovative and successful. It locates this approach in a history of efforts to reframe security in Latin America, where urban violence has escalated greatly. The shift from ‘security as repression’ to ‘security as management’ has ushered in new models for governing ‘ungoverned’ neighbourhoods. The scrutiny of the effectiveness of these models is limited, however, by the accumulated mistrust and fear in such spaces. This article analyses a methodology for researching security practice on the ground. The paper assesses what difference it makes when academic, civic and social organisations come together to co-produce knowledge with community researchers living in the midst of mutating forms of violence. The methodology, it is argued, enables those most impacted by chronic violence to highlight how insecurity is differentially experienced and to show they can exercise agency in public security policies, making these more relevant and sustainable.     

Democracy through War?

This article brings together three strands of democracy research which have thus far seldom been informed by one another: the empirical research associated with the ‘democratic peace’ thesis, the juridical-normative questions of legality, and moral-philosophical reasoning about just war. Linking the statistical analysis of the democratic peace to the findings of comparative research on democratization and to the normative debates occurring in law and philosophy on just and legitimized wars, there is an inescapable conclusion that: jus ad bellum and jus post bellum criteria must be closely tied. The protection of people threatened by mass murder and brutal violations of human rights requires not only a short-term military intervention, but also the intensive support to establish sustainable rule of law and democracy. External actors intervening for humanitarian reasons equally have a duty to contribute to long-term sustainable state- and democracy-building. Forced regime change and an international trusteeship protectorate can become legitimate and necessary means to guarantee justice after war and to reconcile jus ad bellum principles with duties post bellum. A premature withdrawal of intervening forces, for example in Afghanistan or in Iraq, would amount to a flagrant violation of external actors' post-war duties.     

Is the internet an instrument of global democratization?

This article explores the hypothesis that people in less democratic nations will use the Internet newsgroups devoted to those countries as a relatively ‘safe’ form of political discussion and even protest. Also, it is expected that nationals of those countries living overseas will use these newsgroups to more openly discuss politics in those nations than they could otherwise do so. Before turning to a content analysis of the messages posted in non‐United States Usenet groups, the number of these groups and the levels of political discussion in them are quantified. The article quantifies the international usage of the Usenet as a first attempt to find some patterns in this usage that may be politically motivated. After all, many pundits imagine that the Internet will become the vaunted ‘global village’ and source of ‘grass‐roots democracy’, and not merely in the United States. An examination of the content of about 2500 messages in 41 Usenet groups then follows, with a view to establishing the following: how many messages are explicitly political; how many are in opposition to the current government; how many are pro‐government; whether they primarily serve as alternative sources of news; whether they are attempts to recruit people in the subject country and around the world into some sort of political action; and whether richer nations are more likely to have higher levels of discussion in their newsgroups than poorer ones. The findings conclude that newsgroups devoted to countries with lower levels of democratization have a much higher percentage of anti‐government messages than the newsgroups about nations that are more democratic.     

Conflict Resolution through Democracy Promotion? The Role of the OSCE in Georgia

This article qualitatively and empirically analyses the OSCE's efforts to promote democracy after intra-state war in Georgia. This regional organization is rooted in a comprehensive approach to security that directly links security to democratic values. Therefore, the OSCE is a particularly appropriate subject for studying the issue of democracy promotion in the context of conflict-resolution processes. Georgia provides a difficult environment for such a goal. Given that its two secession conflicts are ‘frozen’, democracy can, especially in this context, be considered a well-suited means to indirectly contribute to conflict resolution. By contrasting the democratic development in Georgia with OSCE activities since 1992, this article will assess OSCE democracy promotion efforts. When these efforts are measured with regard to progress in peace and democratic quality, the effectiveness of external democracy promotion by the OSCE has to be called into question. However, the article argues that democratization is a long-term process in which internal factors play a decisive role. The OSCE, like other international organizations, can only reach its normative goals to the degree of the reform orientation and political will of the target state's government. The potential for impact is limited, but can be increased by commitment and context sensitivity.     

India’s Growth Slowdown: End of an Era?

This article examines the sources of rapid economic growth in India in the 2000s and explanations for the growth slowdown in more recent years. We use the Indian national accounts and the National Sample Survey (NSS) to perform a growth accounting analysis. We disaggregate the total economy into agriculture, industry and services and separately identify the contributions of labor, capital and improvements in productivity. Services account for the largest share of the acceleration in 2000-10. Industry, on the other hand, is the sector most reflective of the recent slowdown. The high growth of the 2000s can be traced to strong capital accumulation, improvements in labor skills and large productivity gains. A slowing in the pace of economic reform and a general deterioration in fiscal and monetary policies appear to be the major factors responsible for the slower pace of growth since 2010.     

Feminism and Constructivism: Worlds Apart or Sharing the Middle Ground?

The discipline of international relations (IR) is witnessing a "constructivist turn." In this article, we argue that the new preoccupation with constructivism provides a unique opportunity to further understanding between feminism and the IR mainstream. Feminism and constructivism share a commitment to an ontology of becoming that can serve as a common basis for conversation. Yet there are also profound differences between feminists and constructivists. First, most IR feminists approach gender and power as integral elements in processes of construction, whereas most constructivists consider power to be external to such processes. This failure to conceptualize power and gender as social and pervasive leads constructivists to miss an important part of the empirical reality of power politics. Second, constructivists tend to ignore the implications of a postpositivist epistemology, whereas for feminists the question of "Who knows?" is crucial. We argue that the constructivist failure to problematize the research process as a social (and therefore political) process of construction is logically inconsistent with an ontology of becoming. We introduce empirical materials to illustrate the advantages of feminist approaches. We hope to advance a dialogue between feminism and constructivism because the two approaches add to each other and in combination can yield better theoretical and empirical understandings of the world.     

The changing role of the military in Turkish politics: democratization through coup plots?

The exposure of alleged coup plots in 2007 has shaken the guardian role of the Turkish military in politics. What were the conditions that led to the exposure of the coups and what is their significance for the future of Turkish democracy? Drawing on insights from southern Europe, the article argues that failed coup plots can lead to democratic civil–military relations especially if they work simultaneously with other facilitating conditions, such as increasing acceptance of democratic attitudes among officers, consensus among civilians over the role of the military, and the influence of external actors, such as the European Union. The article focuses on such domestic and international factors to analyse the transformation of the Turkish military, the splits within the armed forces and the resulting plots. It argues that one positive outcome of the exposed conspiracies in Turkey has been the enactment of new institutional amendments that would eradicate the remaining powers of the military. Yet, a negative outcome of the coup investigations has been an increase in polarization and hostility. Turkish democracy still lacks mutual trust among significant political groups, which creates unfavourable conditions for democratic consolidation.     

Does Canadian Multiculturalism Survive through State Repression?

Emma Ambrose and Cas Mudde argued in this journal that the absence of far-right parties in Canada can be attributed, among other factors, to “strong state repression of dissent” on multiculturalism policy. This article provides numerous examples of such dissent, to show that the state repression invoked by Ambrose and Mudde does not exist. The article also argues that certain “supply-side” explanations for the absence of a strong far-right apply to the Canadian case. It notes, in particular, how Steven Harper's Conservative government occupied much of the political space that might otherwise have been available for far-right challengers.     

Who is rebuilding Aceh? Tensions between groups of staff in an NGO

This article takes its point of departure in an international non-governmental aid organisation (INGO) active in post-disaster and post-conflict Aceh. Using material collected through fieldwork conducted in the organisation, the article addresses the issue of how the intrinsic logic and workings of development reinforce the historically tense relationship between Acehnese and Indonesians.     

Why Is There an ISIL?

In June 2014,the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)1——an extremist organization——suddenly appeared in Mosul in Northern Iraq.Since then it has rapidly expanded its sphere of influence,to incorporate much of northern and western Iraq.Strategists,both in China and overseas,are puzzling over this Islamic State.Some scholars argue that the west Asian political landscape that was carved out 100 years ago is collapsing.ISIL's influence is spreading throughout the Middle East and threatening global security.     

Queering accounts of “MSM” practitioner agency: recognising collateral benefits

This article demonstrates how donor resources can enable MSM/TG practitioners to exercise agency in diverse ways, which produce collateral benefits for sexuality/gender-diverse communities. By focusing on what Thai MSM/TG practitioners actually do, we illustrate how their practices respond to their own aspirations, not only the demands of donor funding regimes. We position our project as queer in the sense that it interrupts the normative absence of practitioner agency within current “MSM” development literature. We argue that our reading might enable greater recognition and donor support for MSM/TG practitioners who produce collateral benefits through their work.     

The Global Economy 2015: Reform through Polarization?

The world’s mediocre growth of 3.3%(source:IMF)in 2014 was striking and is evidence of polarization.Perhaps it heralds new changes in the global economic order.China and the U.S.had the best performing economies,while there was polarization between the economies of the emerging countries and the developed world,as well as within both groups.China began major reforms,and registered a growth of 7.4%in 2014,the lowest in 25 years,yet still the world’s fastest.The U.S.economy grew 2.4%,beating the IMF forecast.The developed economies grew 1.8%(up 0.5 percentage points)while the emerging economies grew 4.4%(down 0.3 percentage points)—a buck in the trend of previous years.There was a sharp polarization last year in the economies of     

More Combatant Groups,More Terror?: Empirical Tests of an Outbidding Logic

We examine and test the logic that outbidding among insurgent groups results in more suicide terrorism specifically and more terrorism of any type, which has become a popular argument in recent years. A global analysis of terrorism from 1970–2004 provides scant support for the notion that outbidding increases suicide terrorism. An extension of the argument to all types of terrorist attacks provides even less support. The logic of outbidding has received considerable attention in academic and policy circles in recent years. ¹ Mia Bloom, Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005); Andrew Kydd and Barbara Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism,” International Security 31 (2006): 49–80. Similar to the argument that democratic occupation increases suicide terror, ² Robert Pape, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terror (New York: Random House, 2005). our lack of empirical support suggests that considerable cross-national work is still needed to understand suicide terror adequately. We suggest some reasons why this may be the case, drawing particular attention to the problem of overgeneralizing from a limited set of cases.     

Sharing Power and Faking Governance? Lebanese State and Non-State Institutions during the War in Syria

ABSTRACT

The war in Syria has caused both external and internal pressures on the Lebanese political system and state institutions. Yet, the Lebanese power-sharing system rests on a set of institutional mechanisms, both state and non-state, which allow its politicians to continue to govern, even in this tumultuous situation, and to respond to crisis. Empirical evidence on how policies were negotiated concerning security, elections, and refugees between 2012 and 2018 shows an interaction between state and non-state institutions and highlights the role of such mechanisms in power-sharing institutions.     

Violence and the breakdown of the political settlement: an uncertain future for Bangladesh?

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of the elite political settlement in Bangladesh after the democratic transition in 1991 and its impact on the elite interactions in the arena of competitive electoral democracy. We trace the history of how a political settlement around regime succession developed in the mid-1990s, and then experienced difficulties in multiple stages, and finally broke down in 2011. Violence was instrumentally used, by the ruling elites and the main opposition party, to influence the processes of negotiations around the succession of power. We argue that ‘partyarchy’—where political parties exert informal control of the party through formal processes and institutions—and dynastic rule prevent the political elites from reaching a stable settlement around regime succession. We also show how the changes to the rules of the game around regime succession have led to a qualitative shift in the extent and nature of violence in the political domain, and explore why democratic consolidation remains elusive.