Reflections on the Iraq War: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Our foreign policy elites, the press, our elected representatives and the general public internalize “lessons” from each war, although the lessons may be wrong or misapplied. How we arrive at such consensus lessons is a mystery. It is too early to predict what lessons from Iraq will guide future U.S. decision-making. But on the situation as it now stands, it is possible to make some broad generalizations concerning what went right in Iraq and what went wrong.     

Using Process Tracing to Improve Policy Making: The (Negative) Case of the 2003 Intervention in Iraq

This article argues that applying the Bayesian logic of process tracing can improve intelligence estimates, appraisals of alternative policy options, and reassessments of whether policies are working as planned. It illustrates these points by demonstrating how more systematic use of this logic could have improved each of these three elements of policymaking regarding the 2003 US military intervention in Iraq.     

2003年中国外交

20 0 3年世界形势的重要特点之一是 ,国际上对中国的关注程度明显比以往提高了。毫无疑问 ,年初中国新一届领导集体闪亮登场 ,是引起国际社会极大兴趣的一个重要原因。而今年众多国家领导人访华的一个重要考虑也是为了尽早与中国新领导人建立关系。同时 ,今年也是中国的“外交年”。中国在处理朝核危机中的高超外交技巧、在处理与周边国家关系中表现出高度自信以及在八国集团、APEC等多边外交场合展现出崭新风貌 ,赢得了国际社会的积极评价。国外舆论称赞中国为 2 0 0 3年国际舞台上的“明星”。今年 1 0月 2 7日出版的美国《时代》周刊称 ,“北京已成为国际舞台上一个越来越老练和成熟的角色”。一年来的外交实践充分体现了中国在国际事务中“有所作为”的主动性和创新精神 ,给我们留下了深刻的启示。值此岁末之时 ,本期我们特邀请中国现代国际关系研究所的几位专家举行对谈 ,试对 2 0 0 3年的中国外交作出总结和前瞻。作为一家之言刊登于此 ,预祝中国外交取得更大成绩。     

Realpolitik or Imperial Hubris: The Latin American Drug War and U.S. Foreign Policy in Iraq

Robert Kaplan has suggested that America employ elsewhere the same “stealth imperialism” tactics as are being used to combat drugs and guerrillas in Colombia. In fact, decades of U.S. efforts there have achieved little. The real lessons to be learned from Colombia are the perils of relying on flawed assumptions about the threat presented; the difficulties of creating and training a military capable of achieving U.S. objectives; and the risk of mistaking symbols, signals, and credibility for core U.S. interests. Moreover, in both regions, policymakers often fail to understand the fundamental sources of the conflict, particularly class, ethnicity, and nationalism. They incorrectly believe that U.S. policy has nothing to do with the continuation of the conflict and presume U.S. omnipotence.     

Misreading Islam in Iraq: Secular Misconceptions and British Foreign Policy

Though British foreign policy toward Iraq was officially separate from counterterrorism strategy, ideas about the “global war on terror” circulated in both policy milieus. This article deploys the concept of the security imaginary, adding insights from Pierre Bourdieu's notion of the habitus, to explore why this was the case. The British security imaginary, as structured by a secular social landscape coming to terms with “radical Islamism,” was beholden to a series of problematic assumptions about religio-politics. This article focuses on British perceptions of the Islamist Jaish al-Mehdi militia between 2003 and 2004. Beyond the Iraq example, this historical incident suggests intimate connections between the experience of domestic secularity and warfare.     

Ethics, Foreign Policy, and Liberal Wars: The Role of Restraint in Moral Decision Making

Can morality be a basis for making foreign policy? What happens when it is? The dangers in using morality to justify violence are discussed in the light of the just war tradition and liberalism. An ethical case for the importance of restraint in moral decision making, especially with regard to unnecessary but desirable wars within liberalist approaches to foreign policy, is presented.     

大众传媒与中国外交政策的制定

我国自20世纪70年代末启动改革开放进程,由此媒体对中国外交政策制定的影响总体上呈逐渐上升的趋势.目前中国的大众传媒之于外交政策显示了五大主要的功能.尽管中国外交政策的制定还不是一个充分开放的过程,但体制内的政治精英仍可引导公众舆论,影响大众的认知.     

冷战期间缅甸的中立外交政策

独立后的缅甸一直奉行独立自主的中立外交政策,在与中美苏三大国的关系上表现的尤为突出。冷战期间,缅甸与三大国的外交关系有以下特点:其一,缅甸与三大国都基本上保持着正常的关系,没有产生大的矛盾和冲突;其二,不与任何大国结盟,从不倒向任何一方。其三,在与三大国的关系中,缅中关系显得更为密切,但两国仍属于正常的国家关系,并没有结成同盟。总的来说,缅甸的对外政策确实是中立和不结盟的。     

Boomerangs and Superpowers: International Norms,Transnational Networks and US Foreign Policy

The complex relationship between international norms and transational networks of non-state actors is gaining increasing attention in international relations theory. This paper argues that transnational networks of non-state actors gain greater access to and influence over states when they identify with international norms that the states themselves have formally accepted--even if that formal acceptance did not initally reflect any serious intention to implement or monitor the norm in question. This process has been called the 'boomering effect'. The resulting redefinitions of state interests raise the diplomatic salience of the norm in question, and thereby increase its effectiveness. The article illustrates this process with a study of changes in the US foreign policy towards Soviet and Eastern European compliance with the human rights norms of the Helsinki Accords in the mid-late 1970s.     

叙利亚与伊拉克战争--兼论巴沙尔政府执政后对本地区政策的调整

巴沙尔执政后 ,为扭转不利于叙利亚的中东时局 ,调整了叙利亚对本地区的政策 ,与周边国家改善关系 ,加强与本地区大国的合作。伊拉克危机爆发后 ,叙利亚逐步卷入其中 ,先是对美国“倒萨”采取不合作立场 ,继续推进与伊拉克的和解 ,继而又在安理会表达强硬的反战立场。其用意则是借力伊拉克问题 ,凸显阿以冲突。伊拉克战争期间 ,叙美矛盾激化 ,导致叙利亚地区政治环境转趋恶化。虽然巴沙尔灵活务实的外交政策使紧张的叙美关系暂趋缓和 ,但伊拉克战争后 ,叙美分歧依旧 ,叙以僵局、黎巴嫩问题等仍将是巴沙尔政府面临的难题。     

Oil Sovereignty,American Foreign Policy,and the 1968 Coups in Iraq

This analysis assesses American foreign policy toward the Ba’ath Party’s 1968 coup in Iraq. Whilst prominent American business groups expressed sympathy for the new Ba’athist regime in Baghdad, there is, as yet, no available evidence that these business groups received any official support from Washington. On the contrary, key policymakers within the Lyndon Johnson Administration had come to see the Ba’ath as a Cold War “enemy” by the late 1960s.     

墨西哥与伊拉克危机

“九一一”事件之后,美国把伊拉克问题与反恐斗争联系在一起。阿富汗战争结束后,美国随即将矛头指向伊拉克,欲以武力推翻萨达姆政权。为获得联合国安理会对伊拉克开战的授权,美国展开了频繁的外交活动。面对美国的百般拉拢和国际社会日益高涨的反战呼声,作为安理会成员国的墨西哥究竟何去何从?这引起世人的关注。     

伊拉克战争中的心战手法综述

古往今来,军事谋略家都重视舆论宣传在战争中的重要作用。我国著名军事家孙子曰:“攻心为上,攻城为下。”诸葛亮也曾言道“心战为上,兵战为下”。伴随着现代传播技术和媒体的迅猛发展,舆论宣传战已成为一种重要作战手段。人们从伊拉克战争中美伊双方的攻守,更是很好地领略到了这一点。     

日本政坛动荡对其内政和外交的影响

日本民主党上台后,背弃竞选时向选民许下的诺言,支持率很快下滑。同时,原执政多年的自民党并未从中获利进而东山再起,反而继续衰退下去。而不断涌现的小党形成了日本政党政治的第三极力量。日本政局不稳,不仅使日本在寻求国家发展方向的道路上继续徘徊,而且增加了日本对外政策的不确定性。     

美伊战争的前景与影响

随着美国进攻伊拉克的准备和部署逐步到位,美伊战争已难以避免。美伊战争的前景和结果及影响如何,已成为国际社会关注的焦点。     

Re-negotiating the Just War: The Invasion of Iraq and Punitive War

This article examines the arguments pertaining to punitive war presented by President George W Bush, Prime Minister Tony Blair and various just war theorists, in order to examine how they relate, first, to the case made for war against Iraq in 2003 and, second, to the classical just war tradition. In highlighting the confluence between contemporary justificatory rhetoric and the classical just war tradition, this article sketches an account of the mode by which the tradition has developed over time. By drawing attention to the homologies linking just war arguments, classical and contemporary, it constructs a basis for a critical perspective: understanding the idea of punishment as it has figured historically in just war tradition past may enable us to gain a degree of critical purchase on how it figures in just war tradition present.     

When and How Parliaments Influence Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey's Iraq Decision

Turkey's decision on its role in the Iraq war in 2003 illustrates the power—and limits—of parliaments as actors in foreign policy. Traditionally, assemblies are not seen as important players in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies. Instead, cabinets are generally considered the chief policymaking authorities. If the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, legislatures typically support the cabinet, if they are brought into the process at all. The March 1, 2003 vote by the Turkish parliament to not allow the United States to use Turkey as a base for the Iraq invasion challenges this conventional wisdom on parliamentary influence (in addition to many interest-based explanations of foreign policy). This paper examines this decision in the context of the role of parliaments in foreign policies and explores the relationships between parliamentary influence, leadership, intraparty politics, and public opinion.     

小泉内阁的政策取向与中日关系的前景

小泉内阁对内对外政策取向,重视日美同盟关系,意欲修改和平宪法,要正式参拜靖国神社等言行主张,无疑给东北亚地区国际政治发展,尤其对中日关系的未来前景增添了新的不安和不确定性因素。中国面对的是一个要做 “正常国家”却又不愿承认和清算侵略历史的日本,一个经济上强大、政治作用也不断扩大的日本。要在警惕和阻止日本的政治右倾化和军国主义化倾向的同时,发展同日本的双边关系。     

Setting a Course: Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs In Post-World War II U.S. Foreign Policy

"Congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs" are those legislators who initiate their own foreign policy agendas. These individuals seek to frame policy discussions and mobilize public and interest group interest; to direct congressional agendas toward specific foreign policy issues; to structure and influence the formulation of foreign policies by the executive branch; to revise, refocus, or reformulate foreign policies; to generate alternative and replacement foreign policies; and to fill policy vacuums with their own preferred foreign policies. This paper examines the evolution and impact of such entrepreneurs across the periods of the Cold War Consensus (1946–1967), the Cold War Dissensus (1968–1989), and the Post-Cold War (1990–2000). The paper first provides an overview of the concept of foreign policy entrepreneurs. It then turns to case studies of entrepreneurial initiatives from three prolific entrepreneurs whose careers span the post-World War II era: Senators Jacob Javits, Edward Kennedy, and Christopher Dodd. Together, the overview and cases shed light on the different avenues and activities that entrepreneurs use to address their preferred issues and the impact entrepreneurs have on policy, as well as highlight changes in both over time.