Risky business: A risk-based methodology to measure organized crime

This paper describes the result of two studies on the development of a methodology to measure organized crime. The purpose of these studies, tasked by the Belgian Federal Police and Minister for Justice, was to provide a concrete and knowledge-based framework for the drafting of annual reports on organized crime that can give better answers to questions like ‘Is there much organized crime? Is the situation serious? Is it bad that there are more criminal groups now than in the past? Which criminal groups are the most dangerous?’. Two features provide a common thread that binds the methodology: the operating principle of the spectrum of enterprise and the application of a risk-based methodological process to the overall framework. The starting hypothesis is that organized crime is entrepreneurial in nature and that the dynamics of the market space provide the main environment and explanation for organized crime. The application of a risk-based methodology is founded on the recognition that the analysis of organized crime will always depend on imperfect information and resource limitations. Furthermore, the utility of a risk-based approach is seen in the provision of findings that are transparently arrived at with a clearly established framework for prioritization of decision-makers. The proposed methodology consists of three parts: environmental scanning, analysis of organizations and counter strategies and licit and illicit sector analysis.     

Consistency in crime site selection: An investigation of crime sites used by serial sex offenders across crime series

PurposeKnowing sites used by serial sex offenders to commit their crimes is highly beneficial for criminal investigations. However, environmental choices of serial sex offenders remain unclear to this date. Considering the challenges these offenders pose to law enforcement, the study aims to identify sites serial sex offenders use to encounter and release their victims and investigate their stability across crime series.MethodsThe study uses latent class analysis (LCA) to identify victim encounter and release sites used by 72 serial sex offenders having committed 361 sex offenses. Additional LCA are performed to investigate the stability of these offense environments across offenders' crimes series.ResultsDistinct profiles of crime sites that are recurrent across crime series are found, suggesting that serial sex offenders present a limited diversity of victim encounter and victim release sites. Encounter sites representative of longer crime series are also identified. Specifically, the use of sites known to "attract" potential victims decreases over series and offenders become more risk-taking in regard of sites used to encounter their victims.ConclusionsThe study identifies patterns of site- selection for the victim encounter and release in cases of serial crimes. Implications for crime linkage and police investigations strategies are discussed.     

A methodological model

Clues derived from the locations connected to violent repeat criminal offenders, such as serial murderers, rapists, and arsonists, can be of significant assistance to law enforcement. Such information allows police departments to focus their activities, geographically prioritize suspects, and to concentrate saturation or directed patrolling efforts in those zones where the criminal predator is most likely to be active. By examining spatial data connected to a series of crime sites, this methodological model generates a choropleth probability map that indicates the areas most likely to be associated to the offender—home, work site, or travel routes. Based on the Brantingham theoretical structure and the routine activities approach, the model goes beyond simple cluster or centroid analysis by employing specific serial murder research, overlapping modified Pareto functions, and Manhattan distances. The methodology is also sensitive to the target/victim opportunity backcloth, landscape issues, and problems of spatial “outliers.”     

系列犯罪规律性初探

系列犯罪是同一犯罪主体（包括个体和群体）所实施的两起以上的犯罪。它有没有规律性可言？根据前人的不懈探索和我们的问卷调查，回答是肯定的。为此，应借鉴已有研究成果和开展实证研究的基础上，总结出它们的地域规律、动力定型规律、恶性转化规律以及系列犯罪过程不断自我暴露过程的规律。     

Crime Scene and Distance Correlates of Serial Rape

This study, derived from a sample of 108 serial rapists (rapes=565), examines the relationship between demographic, crime scene, and criminal history variables and the distance traveled by serial rapists in order to offend. The pattern of offenses perpetrated by each of the 108 serial offenders as it relates to his place of residence is also analyzed in terms of known characteristics of the offender and his offenses. The theoretical focus of the study integrates premises derived from criminal investigative analysis, environmental criminology, ethnographic geography, journey to crime research, and criminal geographic targeting to explore the cognitive symmetry between the how and the where of serial sexual offenses. These components or dimensions of serial crime are explored in an attempt to aid law enforcement in their investigation of hard-to-solve serial crimes.     

Gender inequality and homicide: a cross-national examination

Studies examining gender inequality and crime have often explored the connection between female victimisation and crime. However, feminist theories do provide a rationale for gender inequality affecting all crime, not just female victimisation. Using the ameliorative and the backlash hypothesis the current analysis examined gender inequality and homicide in 94 countries. Using a gender inequality index, we found that as gender inequality increased the homicide rate increased. This finding supports the ameliorative hypothesis, which states that as societies become more equal crime will decrease.     

Researcher–practitioner partnerships and crime analysis: a case study in action research

This paper describes a recent researcher–practitioner partnership designed to address the challenges faced by law enforcement agencies when implementing crime control and prevention strategies. Using an action research methodology, the project embedded a group of trained students within the law enforcement community to assist with local crime problems and supplement existing crime analysis and research capabilities in six agency units. Results of this case study offer several implications for future researcher–practitioner partnerships focused on crime analysis and present an enhanced set of metrics for evaluating success.     

Behavioural case linkage with solved and unsolved crimes

Offender behaviour is used to distinguish between crimes committed by the same person (linked crimes) and crimes committed by different people (unlinked crimes) through behavioural case linkage. There is growing evidence to support the use of behavioural case linkage by investigative organisations such as the police, but this research is typically limited to samples of solved crime that do not reflect how this procedure is used in real life. The current paper extends previous research by testing the potential for behavioural case linkage in a sample containing both solved and unsolved crimes. Discrimination accuracy is examined across crime categories (e.g. a crime pair containing a car theft and a residential burglary), across crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing a residential burglary and a commercial burglary), and within crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing two residential burglaries) using the number of kilometres (intercrime distance) and the number of days (temporal proximity) between offences to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The intercrime distance and/or the temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime categories, across crime types, and within crime types as measured by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests that behavioural case linkage can be used to assist the investigation, detection and prosecution of prolific and versatile serial offenders.     

THE NEW MYTH OF CLASS AND CRIME

On the basis of a reanalysis of the empirical evidence. Tittle et al. (1978) concluded that the presumed inverse relationship between class and crime is a myth. We discuss six problems in their evaluation: paucity of evidence; lack of specification of theoretical relationships; faulty specification and measures of class; inadequate operational definitions of “crime”; faulty analysis of evidence; and failure to examine all evidence. We conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that low class position is a source of serious crimes against persons and property.     

Using Dasymetric Mapping for Spatially Aggregated Crime Data

With availability of crime data to the public via sources such as the Uniform Crime Reports, and increasing geographic information system (GIS) capabilities for mapping crime, macro-level studies of crime have advanced knowledge of how crime is distributed over large areas. Choropleth mapping, commonly used in macro-level studies, visually displays data by assigning the number of crimes or crime rate to the corresponding spatial unit and using different shades or textures for each value or classified values creating a thematic map. However, crime incidents or crime rates are not dispersed evenly within spatial units, and choropleth mapping masks the underlying nuances of the distribution. Artificial boundaries, along with variations in the size of the unit of analysis, can further distort the true distribution of crime. Dasymetric mapping provides a methodology for refining the distribution of crime within a spatial unit. It does so by using additional data, such as land use and census data, to provide a realistic estimate of how crime may be distributed within the units of analysis. Dasymetric mapping is also useful in creating density maps to reveal clusters of crime normally masked with choropleth maps. This paper will show how dasymetric mapping can estimate the spatial distribution of aggregate level residential burglary within political boundaries in Massachusetts based on land use and housing data.     

Addressing problems with traditional crime linking methods using receiver operating characteristic analysis

Purpose. Through an examination of serial rape data, the current article presents arguments supporting the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis over traditional methods in addressing challenges that arise when attempting to link serial crimes. Primarily, these arguments centre on the fact that traditional linking methods do not take into account how linking accuracy will vary as a function of the threshold used for determining when two crimes are similar enough to be considered linked. Methods. Considered for analysis were 27 crime scene behaviours exhibited in 126 rapes, which were committed by 42 perpetrators. Similarity scores were derived for every possible crime pair in the sample. These measures of similarity were then subjected to ROC analysis in order to (1) determine threshold‐independent measures of linking accuracy and (2) set appropriate decision thresholds for linking purposes. Results. By providing a measure of linking accuracy that is not biased by threshold placement, the analysis confirmed that it is possible to link crimes at a level that significantly exceeds chance (AUC = .75). The use of ROC analysis also allowed for the identification of decision thresholds that resulted in the desired balance between various linking outcomes (e.g. hits and false alarms). Conclusions. ROC analysis is exclusive in its ability to circumvent the limitations of threshold‐specific results yielded from traditional approaches to linkage analysis. Moreover, results of the current analysis provide a basis for challenging common assumptions underlying the linking task.     

A Test of Case Linkage Principles with Solved and Unsolved Serial Rapes

Case linkage involves identifying crime series on the basis of behavioral similarity and distinctiveness. Research regarding the behavioral consistency of serial rapists has accumulated; however, it has its limitations. One of these limitations is that convicted or solved crime series are exclusively sampled whereas, in practice, case linkage is applied to unsolved crimes. Further, concerns have been raised that previous studies might have reported inflated estimates of case linkage effectiveness due to sampling series that were first identified based on similar modus operandi (MO), thereby overestimating the degree of consistency and distinctiveness that would exist in naturalistic settings. We present the first study to overcome these limitations; we tested the assumptions of case linkage with a sample containing 1) offenses that remain unsolved, and 2) crime series that were first identified as possible series through DNA matches, rather than similar MO. Twenty-two series consisting of 119 rapes from South Africa were used to create a dataset of 7021 crime pairs. Comparisons of crime pairs that were linked using MO vs. DNA revealed significant, but small differences in behavioral similarity with MO-linked crimes being characterized by greater similarity. When combining these two types of crimes together, linked pairs (those committed by the same serial offender) were significantly more similar in MO behavior than unlinked pairs (those committed by two different offenders) and could be differentiated from them. These findings support the underlying assumptions of case linkage. Additional factors thought to impact on linkage accuracy were also investigated.     

Estimating the probability of allelic drop-out of STR alleles in forensic genetics

In crime cases with available DNA evidence, the amount of DNA is often sparse due to the setting of the crime. In such cases, allelic drop-out of one or more true alleles in STR typing is possible. We present a statistical model for estimating the per locus and overall probability of allelic drop-out using the results of all STR loci in the case sample as reference. The methodology of logistic regression is appropriate for this analysis, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this in a forensic genetic framework.     

Heterogeneity in the Frequency Distribution of Crime Victimization

Objectives

Tests the idea that the frequency distribution typically observed in crosssectional crime victimization data sampled from surveys of general populations is a heterogeneously distributed result of the mixing of two latent processes associated, respectively, with each of the tails of the distribution.

Methods

Datasets are assembled from a number of samples taken from the British Crime Survey and the Scottish Crime Victimization Survey. Latent class analysis is used to explore the probable, latent distributions of individual property crime and personal crime victimization matrices that express the frequency and type of victimization that are self-reported by respondents over the survey recall period.

Results

The analysis obtains broadly similar solutions for both types of victimization across the respective datasets. It is demonstrated that a hypothesized mixing process will produce a heterogeneous set of local sub-distributions: a large sub-population that is predominantly not victimized, a very small ‘chronic’ sub-population that is frequently and consistently victimized across crime-type, and an ‘intermediate’ sub-population (whose granularity varies with sample size) to whom the bulk of victimization occurs. Additionally, attention is paid to the position of very high frequency victimization within these sub-populations.

Conclusions

The analysis supports the idea that crime victimization may be a function of two propensities: for immunity, and exposure. It demonstrates that zero-inflation is also a defining feature of the distribution that needs to be set alongside the significance that has been attached to the thickness of its right tail. The results suggest a new baseline model for investigating population distributions of crime victimization.     

Sexual crime and place: The impact of the environmental context on sexual assault outcomes

Purpose

Using the rational choice perspective, the current study investigates the impact that the environment and offending behavior have on serial sexual crime event outcomes.

Methods

The effects of time and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, on sexual crime event outcomes are tested using Generalized Estimating Equations on a sample of 361 crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders.

Results

Time and place do impact serial stranger sexual offenders’ modus operandi strategies, but the place characteristics of the crime have more of an effect on the offender’s behavior than do the temporal conditions during which the event occurs. Subsequent analyses indicate that temporal and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, predict whether the offender completes the rape, his reaction to victim resistance, and the level of physical force that he inflicts on the victim, but not whether the victim is forced to commit sexual acts on the offender.

Conclusions

Serial stranger sexual offenders are effective decision-makers who adapt their strategies to the physical environment in which they commit their crimes, but their degree of rationality can vary as some outcomes are more dependent on the context than the offender and his actions.     

A comparative study of British and German press articles on ‘organised crime’ (1999–2009)

Organised crime is the topic of many popular fiction teledramas and films, such as The Sopranos, The Godfather and Goodfellas. The relationship between fiction and fact is delicate. We argue that the same can be said for the influence of the press. How far does the press construct, rather than objectively recount an image of organised crime? We extracted 389 British and German articles from national newspapers that reported organised crime between 1999 and 2009, from the Lexis Nexis (now Nexis UK) database and the online archives of a number of German newspapers. We then analysed them using quantitative and qualitative methods of textual analysis. In this article, we analyse the British and German press discourses on organised crime between 1999 and 2009, to identify their rhetoric and compare their reporting. To do this, we will 1) define terms and explain our methodology; 2) provide a general overview of statistics; 3) provide two specific analyses of reporting of organised crime and 4) discuss our findings.     

Saturation Foot-Patrol in a High-Violence Area: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation

Shoplifting is one of the most common and costly crimes, yet little data exist to determine reliably characteristics of the typical shoplifter or the modus operandi of the crime. It is a crime that has most often been studied using official, secondary data provided by either retail security personnel or law enforcement officers. Reliability issues plague these official data. Continuing the “dark figure of crime” tradition, this study examines shoplifting by covert observation with a camera system installed in a typical suburban retail drug store. A standardized data template was used to record the demographic and behavioral characteristics of shoppers. Significant numbers of shoppers (8.5%) were observed shoplifting. Logistic regression analysis reveals that, while members of some demographic groups shoplifted more often than others, behavioral indicators carried far more predictive power. The methodology and findings are considered within the larger context of the law enforcement and “profiling” literatures.     

Is problem-oriented policing effective in reducing crime and disorder?

Research Summary
We conducted a Campbell systematic review to examine the effectiveness of problem-oriented policing (POP) in reducing crime and disorder. After an exhaustive search strategy that identified more than 5,500 articles and reports, we found only ten methodologically rigorous evaluations that met our inclusion criteria. Using meta-analytic techniques, we found an overall modest but statistically significant impact of POP on crime and disorder. We also report on our analysis of pre/post comparison studies. Although these studies are less methodologically rigorous, they are more numerous. The results of these studies indicate an overwhelmingly positive impact from POP.
Policy Implications
POP has been adopted widely across police agencies and has been identified as effective by many policing scholars. Our study supports the overall commitment of police to POP but suggests that we should not necessarily expect large crime and disorder control benefits from this approach. Moreover, funders and the police need to invest much greater effort and resources to identify the specific approaches and tactics that work best in combating specific types of crime problems. We conclude that the evidence base in this area is deficient given the strong investment in POP being made by the government and police agencies.