非洲联盟：希望之路

非洲的希望从非统组织到非洲联盟的转变向世界传递了一个象征性的信息 :非洲的历史在续写 ,非洲在前进。这可能是非洲领导人作为一个集体所做出的最重要的和历史性的行动。继续推动泛非事业向前发展的当今领导人可喜可贺 ,他们正在实践恩克鲁玛为整个非洲提出的口号 :永远前进、永不后退。现在 ,非洲领导人应该做的就是继续努力 ,实现非洲真正的联盟 ,即 :通过形成单一的非洲民族来创建一个包括所有非洲人民、所有非洲国家和所有地区在内的联盟。因此 ,一些重要的事情亟待去做 ,其中包括制定将国家领导人转变为国家管理者的战略。这种转变是…     

阿富汗新政府:困难与希望并存

阿富汗终于完成首次总统大选。阿富汗人民和各种政治力量渴望和平稳定以及美国和国际社会的支持为新政府的执政奠定了基础。但新政府面临的国家重建和发展的任务艰巨,新的政党纷争和政治不稳定的可能性依然存在。新政府面临的是希望与困难并存的局面。     

特朗普执政以来美国南亚战略的实施、未来走向及对策建议

特朗普执政以来,美国南亚战略的实施凸显出鲜明的特点:其一,整合南亚战略与印太战略,强调跨区域战略协调;其二,美国与阿富汗塔利班会谈并签署和平协议,贯彻基于条件而非时间表的撤军精神;其三,重视印度在美国南亚战略与印太战略中的"关键国家"作用;其四,希望巴基斯坦继续发挥"前线国家"和关键"第三方"的双重作用。未来,美国解决"阿富汗困境"之路既阻且艰,美印关系将更趋紧密而美巴关系则趋于平淡,美国整合南亚战略与印太战略的雄心不减,但将面临诸多挑战。基于此,建议中国与南亚共建"一带一路"以打造中国-南亚区域经济圈,发挥中巴经济走廊建设的辐射与示范作用,促动良性竞合的中印关系的发展,支持阿富汗政府与塔利班的政治和解努力的同时做好美撤军后阿富汗内战再起的预案。     

Russia and the OSCE: From High Hopes to Disillusionment

The subject of this article is the changing balance between Russia's positive and negative interests in the Conference on/Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE/OSCE) as these have evolved in relation to Western policies on the OSCE and European security relations in general. Parallel to the decline of positive Russian interests in the CSCE/OSCE, an increase in negative attitudes can be observed, most of which concern the OSCE's activities in post-Soviet countries. While the Soviet Union was traditionally a reliable supporter of the CSCE, the Russian Federation, which initially pursued the same policy, has lost most of its sense of ownership in the OSCE. This change in Russian attitudes is critical for the Organisation's future, for an OSCE without active Russian participation would lose much of its raison d'être.     

中美关系的战略基础:过去、现在与未来

以共同威胁或以共同利益为战略基础是发展中美关系的两条主要道路.冷战期间,以反对苏联威胁为主的中美关系战略基础随着冷战的结束而消失.反恐期间,以对付恐怖主义为主的中美关系战略基础具有相对的短暂性和脆弱性.美国反恐战争结束后,中美两国应考虑从共同利益中确定发展未来中美关系的建设性战略基础.经济互赖当是中美关系新的战略基础的首选.     

The 21~(st) Century Maritime Silk Route:New Hopes and Opportunities

<正>1.Introduction Maritime transport is like as the backbone of international trade as well as the global economy.About 90 percent of world’s trade is carried out by the sea in the contemporary fiscal years.The maritime domain has been always considered as cost-effective transit for merchandising trade among the countries.In this regard Maritime Silk     

联合国的现在与未来

“9·1 1事件”一年来 ,联合国在国际反恐中发挥了重要作用。 2 0 0 2年 8月 2 6日 ,联合国在南非召开了可持续发展“地球峰会” ,有一百多个国家的政府领导人与会。 9月1 0日 ,第 57届联大揭幕。联合国的地位、作用及其在 2 1世纪的发展前景再次成为人们关注与思考的焦点。为此 ,本期特邀请中国现代国际关系研究所的几位专家 ,以联合国的现在与未来为题举行对谈 ,就联合国的发展演变、其地位与作用的变化、特别是“9·1 1”后联合国面临的新使命和新挑战及 2 1世纪发展前景等问题 ,进行了探讨。或许 ,这些探讨还有欠深入 ,如能由此引发您的进一步思考并就相关问题提出新观点、新看法 ,将是我们的最大收获。     

米佐人问题初探

米佐人是中国周边民族。1947年印巴分治时，米佐人聚居的卢谢山区（Lusei／Lushai Hills）并入了印度自治领。由于印度政府治理不当，米佐山区1966年爆发了武装分离主义运动。1986年印度中央政府与“米佐民族阵线”签署了和平协定。此后该邦局势平静，民族分离主义问题得到有效解决。     

The Internal Israeli Conflict: The Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements

On October 14 and 15, 2004, just days before the Israeli government submitted to the Knesset a draft legislation to authorize the evacuation of Jewish settlers from Gaza Strip and some settlements on the West Bank, a two‐day conference titled “Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements: The Internal Israeli Conflict” was held at Harvard Law School. The conference was sponsored by the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, the Saltman Center for Conflict Resolution of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and the United States Institute of Peace. This interdisciplinary conference's six panels, whose proceedings are summarized in the series of articles that follow, explored the religious, ideological, psychological, political, legal, and international dimensions of the conflict. Presenters included former and current Israeli and American government officials, experts on resettlement policies and compensation mechanisms, and scholars from a variety of disciplines. While presentation topics covered a range of issues relating to the settlements, three broad themes arose from the conference. First, participants agreed that it is important, if not fundamental, to understand the perspectives of the national religious settlers who are the driving force behind the settlement movement. Exploring the settlers’ diverse interests, fears, and identities is necessary in order to see why relocation is so threatening to them. The Israeli government can lessen opposition to withdrawal by showing the settlers empathy and reassurance, but only if government officials first achieve a true understanding of the settlers’ concerns. Participants also argued that a reframing of the relocation in ideological terms could be another critical component of a solution to this problem. It may be necessary for the leaders of the settlement movement to develop a new narrative or modify the existing one in order to legitimize their relocation. Part of this narrative will involve the concept of “a greater good”— the government must reassure the settlers that their sacrifice is for a higher cause. Several participants noted that Israel needs to show the settlers “tough love.” When the relocations begin, many expect that there will be violence and that disturbing images will be broadcast throughout Israel and around the world. Internal disruption could put the government led by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Likud party coalition in jeopardy. The government must not waver in the face of this crisis, conference participants argued. In fact, the threat of violent and disruptive resistance by settlers and their allies can be part of the solution, not just the problem. The government and relocation supporters can use this extremism to justify decisive measures and to redefine the problem for the broader population to convince them that the stability of the country is at stake. Another major conclusion of conference participants was that, while the Israeli settlement issue has unique features, there is much to be learned from comparative analysis. Other countries have dealt with settlement situations, and their experiences offer invaluable lessons. In particular, participants contrasted Israel's settlements in Gaza and the West Bank with French settlements in Algeria and English settlements in Ireland. Some pointed to the French withdrawal from Algeria, which was politically painful but ultimately successful, as an example of “tough love” that Israel should follow. Finally, the involvement of third parties to help solve this conflict is indispensable. Participants noted that while much of Israel feels alienated from the European Union and the United Nations, the Israeli government is highly sensitive to the concerns of the United States, as evidenced by Sharon's decision to show the Gaza withdrawal plan to the U.S. government before he had even raised it with his cabinet and the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. International participation could help legitimize withdrawal and reduce Israeli responsibility for Gaza's future. Third parties can apply political pressure to encourage an accountable and responsible Palestinian leadership. They may also be called upon to provide some sort of financial aid. The participants acknowledged the complexity of the settlement problem and recognized that easy solutions do not exist. Yet, if the Israeli government works toward understanding the settlers’ perspectives, learns from comparative analysis, and involves third parties appropriately, the likelihood of a successful outcome increases greatly.     

High Hopes and Limited Prospects: Washington's Security and Nation-Building Aims in Afghanistan

Four years have passed since the United States and allied governments toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan and began security and nation-building operations. Despite the continuing deployment of thousands of Western troops and the expenditure of billions of dollars in foreign aid, current conditions in Afghanistan are perilous. Poverty is rampant, the drug trade has shown no sign of decline, warlords remain in power, and the Taliban continues to confront US and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation forces. With the US preparing to reduce its troop presence in 2006 and NATO poised to deploy forces into Afghanistan's dangerous southern provinces, Western security and nation-building efforts are at risk of failure.     

巴基斯坦：远景与现实，过去与未来

巴基斯坦作为一个独立的国家,它不仅仅代表着一个国家和政府,而且还是一种对当代政治中占统治地位的自由化与世俗化模式发起的挑战,它本身就构成了一种变革政治地图的努力。文章从巴基斯坦的现实分析了这个国家的过去与未来。     

朝鲜半岛紧张局势及其走势

2010年,朝韩对抗不断升级,半岛无核化难度增大,局势高度紧张。一、朝韩对抗不断升级“天安”舰事件致使朝鲜半岛南北关系从相对缓和转向直接对抗,美韩频繁联合军演和延坪岛炮击更是为朝韩对抗火上浇油。     

中俄边境贸易的过去、现在与未来

中国与俄罗斯的边境贸易源于1689年的《中俄尼布楚条约》,至今已有300多年的历史。虽然两国的边境贸易经历了沙皇俄国、苏联、俄罗斯联邦等不同的历史时期,但是友好往来、互通有无的良好传统一直没有中断。在当前中俄经贸合作全面展开的新态势下,中俄边境贸易仍具有巨大的发展潜力,随着中俄两国国家关系的持续良好发展,中俄边境贸易又迎来了新的历史机遇。     

东亚地区主义:源起、动因及未来走向

真正意义上的东亚地区主义萌芽可以追溯到20世纪90年代,东亚国家间不断增长的经济上的相互依赖,来自地区外的多重压力、地区内认同力量不断增强以及东亚各国对权力平衡的追逐等共同推动了东亚地区主义的发展。但由于东亚地区的现实环境与客观条件,东亚地区主义只能选择通过采取务实合作,实现和维护地区的和平与发展。     

For the Present and the Future: The Well-Conceived,Successful, and Farsighted Statecraft of President Theodore Roosevelt

“It is difficult to escape the conclusion,” this historian has claimed in previous writings, “that in the foreign policy arena [Theodore] Roosevelt was probably the greatest of all US presidents.” Such a laudatory interpretation is built on an assessment of both the record achieved by Rooseveltian diplomacy during the years of Roosevelt's presidency and the long-term significance of TR's statecraft. In its own time Roosevelt's foreign policy success grew out of a sophisticated understanding of a complex international environment, a well-conceived perspective on America's interests within that environment, and a multitude of attributes in the realm of execution that usually enabled Roosevelt, even in the most challenging cases, to attain the results he was seeking. As to its long-range importance, Rooseveltian statecraft was anchored to three precepts that might be labeled the “precept of broadly defined US interests,” the “precept of US power,” and the “precept of Anglo-American leadership.” By conducting a foreign policy grounded on these precepts, Roosevelt – certainly well ahead of the great majority of his contemporaries – anticipated the type of foreign policy approach that would become and has remained the foundation for the practice of statecraft by many Republican and Democratic presidents and their most influential advisers from 1939 to the present day.