What Stabilizes State General Fund Expenditures in Downturn Years—Budget Stabilization Fund or General Fund Unreserved Undesignated Balance?

This article strictly defines the budget stabilization fund (BSF) as a counter-cyclical reserve, and with a panel data set examines the effects of BSF and general fund unreserved undesignated balances (UUB) on stabilizing state general fund expenditure during downturns. The article finds that BSFs bolster spending in lean years: each percentage point increase of BSF balance as a percent of general fund expenditure can minimize negative expenditure gap by a quarter percentage point. But the article does not find evidence that UUB is a counter-cyclical fiscal tool, indicating that wide adoption of BSF may have changed the nature and use of UUB.     

Forecasting General Fund Revenue: An Analysis of Idaho FY 1998 to FY 2011

Forecasting state general fund revenue (GFR) though business cycles means possibly confusing a cycle with an underlying long‐run trend. Relative to the actual revenue, the mean squared error of the academic, legislative, governor's, the growth path (GP), and Holt‐Winters (HW) forecasts for Idaho GFR was not significantly different than the naïve forecast's; the Combined GP‐HW forecast has significantly smaller mean square error. The GP model (ARIMA 1, 2, 1) produced a short‐run elasticity of revenue with respect to income of 1.05 (±0.05). The best GFR forecasts combined a HW two‐step‐ahead level with a GP one‐step‐ahead trend that provided a forecast of GFR with the smallest root mean square error between FY 1998 and FY 2009. A budget stabilization fund needs to be 34–40 percent of GFR for GFR to sustain growth at the state's long‐run expansion rate during a contraction.     

Availability of affordable healthy food in Hillsborough County,Florida

Prior research has indicated that low‐income neighborhoods in urban regions throughout the United States have limited access to healthy food, which partly explains the prevalence of diet‐related diseases. Our study provides new evidence on the relationship between access, prices of healthy food, and key demographic factors in Hillsborough County, Florida. The research team completed 65 surveys of grocery and convenience stores regarding availability and prices of 11 food items included in the Nutrition Environment Measures Survey in Stores (NEMS‐S). Results from the regression analysis indicate that affordable healthy food is more likely to be found in grocery stores than in convenience stores. There is no significant evidence, however, that low‐income neighborhoods have less access to healthy food than the not‐low‐income ones. We also observe significant price differences among types of stores but not in grocery‐to‐convenience store ratios among income groups, suggesting that low‐income families are not exposed to higher food prices.     

Rethinking Locational Outcomes for Housing Choice Vouchers: A Case Study in Duval County,Florida

This study examines locational patterns of housing choice vouchers in Duval County, Florida, using the Housing Suitability Model (HSM), a newly developed geographic information system–based model that evaluates residential land parcels and neighborhoods in terms of their suitability for affordable housing. The HSM was used to characterize voucher locations and other residential parcels across the county in terms of opportunity and accessibility. The analysis explores the tradeoffs between opportunity and accessibility inherent in many neighborhoods throughout the county. It finds that voucher holders' locations lag substantially behind other residential locations in terms of opportunity measures but are more comparable in terms of accessibility. Further analysis finds differences in opportunity and accessibility among subgroups of voucher holders by various demographic characteristics. The study recommends the incorporation of opportunity and accessibility for voucher holders into local housing planning, including the implementation of proposed rules for Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing.     

影响地方政府有效执行中央政策的因素分析

地方政府执行中央政策影响因素主要包括 :政策执行体制因素、中央政策因素、地方政府因素与中央政策对象因素。提出这些因素并进行系统分析 ,是实现确保地方政府有效执行中央政策的前提。     

Accountability and Entrepreneurial Public Management: The Case of the Orange County Investment Fund

This article presents a conceptual framework that illustrates four distinct types of accountability environments facing public managers. The framework is used as a heuristic tool to examine the broad facts and contexts surrounding the bankruptcy of the Orange County, California investment pool. The framework also suggests management philosophies and strategies that are appropriate for each type of accountability environment.     

A General Empirical Law of Public Budgets: A Comparative Analysis

We examine regularities and differences in public budgeting in comparative perspective. Budgets quantify collective political decisions made in response to incoming information, the preferences of decision makers, and the institutions that structure how decisions are made. We first establish that the distribution of budget changes in many Western democracies follows a non-Gaussian distribution, the power function. This implies that budgets are highly incremental, yet occasionally are punctuated by large changes. This pattern holds regardless of the type of political system—parliamentary or presidential—and for level of government. By studying the power function's exponents we find systematic differences for budgetary increases versus decreases (the former are more punctuated) in most systems, and for levels of government (local governments are less punctuated). Finally, we show that differences among countries in the coefficients of the general budget law correspond to differences in formal institutional structures. While the general form of the law is probably dictated by the fundamental operations of human and organizational information processing, differences in the magnitudes of the law's basic parameters are country- and institution-specific .     

A Comparative Spatial Analysis of European Party Systems*

This article examines mass perceptions of political parties in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, West Germany, the Netherlands and France. For each country we construct a map in which the parties, voters, and demographic groups are located to provide a visual and spatial overview of the structure of electoral competition. Two dimensions are adequate for displaying the main ideological cleavages in each of the countries. In each case there is a strong left-right dimension combined with a more culturally defined and usually weaker second competitive dimension. In general, we find that no parties occupy the center areas of the space, which are usually dense with voters. This leads us to question the adequacy of the traditional spatial model of elections for describing competition in multiparty systems.     

Road Fund Tax Compliance: An Analysis of Enhancement Strategies

This paper focuses on a continuing concern of tax administrators, which is the selection of the most efficient means of ensuring tax law compliance. The selection of the most efficient enforcement techniques and strategies can reduce compliance costs, enhance revenues, and support a culture of voluntary tax law compliance. This paper reports on a national study of state compliance efforts regarding state motor fuel taxes and motor vehicle registration fees, which are major sources of revenue for state Road Funds. Because of special complexities and unique interstate cooperation efforts, the compliance efficiency assessment focuses on the commercial carrier taxpayer group.     

Road to Ruin? A Spatial Analysis of State Highway Spending

Do states engage in infrastructure expenditure competition to attract new economic activity? Economic theory is inconclusive on the matter. States might respond to increased infrastructure spending in competitor states by increasing their own infrastructure spending. Conversely, states may decrease spending in the presence of positive spillovers from competitor states' infrastructure investment. Using spatial econometric techniques and focusing specifically on highway spending, we demonstrate that states expend less on highways when spending in neighboring states increases. We explore this possibility further by modeling state personal income growth as a function of own‐state and neighbor‐state highway spending. Our findings suggest positive spillovers influence interstate relationships for highway spending rather than race‐to‐the‐top competition for economic activity.     

Issues,the Spatial Theory of Voting,and British General Elections: A Comparison of Proximity and Directional Models

Competing spatial models of voter choiceare compared in the context ofparliamentary representatives selectedthrough single-member district, pluralityelections where party platforms areemphasized over individual candidates.Respondents of the 1987, 1992, and 1997British general election surveys ratepolitical parties on a series of issuescales. Ordered logistic regressions ofparty evaluations under proximity,directional, and mixed models reveal thatthe classic spatial model and thedirectional model perform equally well.Differences center on perceptions of thestatus quo, as voters appear to evaluatethe incumbent party (here, theConservatives) slightly differently thanminority parties (Labour and the LiberalDemocrats). The proximity model worksbetter for voter evaluations of governingparties while the directional model workswell for opposition parties.     

Gubernatorial Transition in Florida: A Look at How Politics, Budgeting, and Policy Analysis Interface

This article details the use of policy-focused transition teams during Florida's most recent gubernatorial transition. In a marked shift from the past, the most recent transition separated the appointments and policy advisory functions. The inseparable nature of politics, budgeting, and policy analysis are demonstrated via: (1) an analysis of the transition budget; (2) a detailed look at team structures and their role in agency performance evaluation; (3) a calculation of the fiscal and policy impacts of team recommendations; (4) post-session assessments of the governor's first legislative agenda; and (5) post-transition interviews with key participants.     

公益信托:社会保险基金运营管理的全新模式

加快完善与经济发展水平相适应的社会保障体系,不断扩大社会保障的覆盖面,是关系国计民生的重大问题。然而在社会保障体系中发挥重要作用的社会保险基金,其运营管理存在很多问题,存在诸如管理体制不合理、理财技术经验不足、专业人才紧缺、资金使用效率低下、基金保值增值难以实现等问题。而将公益信托机制引入社会保险基金的运营管理中,可节约人力、物力,降低运营成本,降低经营风险,实现其保值增值,这不仅有助于减轻国家财政负担,而且有利于社会保险基金的长期规划和发展。公益信托应是社会保险基金经营管理的发展方向,是其全新的运营模式。     

“省管县体制”的成本-收益分析

运用成本-收益分析法，即CBA分析法，对“省管县体制”进行绩效分析显示：在中国，东部、中部、西部的区域差别很大，不同地区会形成三种CBA公式：省管县的收益〈市管县的收益＋改革成本＋利益补偿成本；省管县的收益〉市管县的收益＋改革成本＋利益补偿成本；省管县的收益=市管县的收益＋改革成本＋利益补偿成本。“省管县”改革中，不同地区都可以进行CBA评测，依据三种不同公式，相应地采取不同策略，实现改革效率的“帕累托最优”。     

男性光棍构成差异的地域性解释——基于凤城和新县两个村庄的比较分析

以往对光棍问题的讨论要么集中在宏观的经济和社会层面,要么集中在光棍个人的心理和身体特征上,对光棍的研究缺乏区域比较的视野,更没有对光棍生成原因或是归因类型的深入分析。建立于村庄个案对比基础上的光棍问题研究,可以让我们看到光棍成因的复杂性及其类型的层次性,而地域比较的视野则利于我们更准确地认识光棍问题,如可以看到光棍形成的阶段性因素和特殊的地域因素。如此,我们也就扩宽了光棍研究的口径,也深入了对该主题的研究,并有利于认识光棍现象的未来发展趋势。     

会计委派制是一项综合改革

会计委派制是政府部门和产权管理部门以所有者身份 ,凭借其管理职能 ,委派会计人员代表政府和产权管理部门对国有单位或集体企业资产经营和财务会计等经济活动实行直接监督的一种制度。其基本特征是 :单位或企业的会计人员由国家职能部门或产权管理部门实行统一委派、考核、任免和管理。按照会计“核算”与“监督”两大职能的要求 ,会计既要为经营者履行会计核算职责 ,又要为产权所有者履行会计监督职责。如果会计人员放弃或忽视任何一项职责 ,则会计职能必然发挥不充分 ,会计工作必然不全面 ,会计信息必然不真实。现行会计人员管理体制不便…     

Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure: A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980–2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.