全球化时代的新地缘政治安全观

安全是一个国家最首要的关切,只有在对国家的安全需求和安全观念充分了解的基础上,才能分析和解读国家的行为和理解国际政治现象。传统地缘政治学有着独特的安全观,即对于"空间安全"的关注。但是在当今时代,受到全球化所裹挟的各种因素的冲击,传统地缘政治安全观已经不能适应时代的要求。由于全球化时代空间性质的变化和安全内涵的拓展,新地缘政治安全观应当是在充分关注大空间范围内的安全相互依赖的基础上形成的一种综合的安全观。在以和平、发展为主题的时代背景下,理解新地缘政治安全观,有利于更好的实现特定空间背景下国家之间的合作。     

共同安全的困境——论当代国际安全的文化价值基础

国际安全的实质是共同安全,有赖于国际社会在安全观念和安全战略上的基本共识。由于20世纪以来全球国际体系的形成及其文化多样性,世界政治、经济、军事等领域的巨大变革,尤其是民族主义与大众政治的兴盛、超级强权的出现及其意识形态对立,此种共识或价值基础已相当"稀薄"。在战略文化上,存在着对抗型与合作型的差别;在安全观念上,存在着对国家安全、国际安全或全球安全的不同价值偏重;在安全策略上,存在着霸权、均势与制度等模式的竞争。而避免重大战争、维护国际体系稳定与各国独立生存仍然是国际安全的首要目标;促进经济正义以避免国际经济秩序失衡所衍生的国际国内冲突、应对影响人类生存环境和生存状态的全球性非传统安全问题,正成为新的难题。在安全相互依赖的时代,国际社会必须重建共识,奉行以共同安全与合作安全为价值导向的、真正的"国际安全战略",否则将难以摆脱纯粹自助与竞争型"国家安全战略"所造成的安全困境。     

中日韩三国海域安全复合体与东海的“安全化”北大核心CSSCISSCI

中日韩三国海上安全问题的"安全化"与"去安全化"紧密相联。根据巴里·布赞、奥森·维夫等有关区域安全复合体理论,在相互联系的安全威胁中,行为体之间在处理安全问题时不可分割。因此,中日韩三国必须进行跨海域安全合作。在海域安全上,中日韩三国相互联系、相互依赖,构成海域安全复合体,在"安全化"与"去安全化"的过程中呈现出由冲突形态向安全机制过渡的趋向。     

国家安全竞争战略探析

随着全球化时代国家间复杂相互依赖的加深以及核网等恐怖平衡的强化,大国之间越来越难以通过大战方式来获取绝对安全。在这一背景下,大国间的国家安全斗争形式日益趋向和平竞争性质,即不再以追求你死我活的零和博弈为宗旨,而代之以争夺相对安全竞争优势,以压倒对方斗争意志从而迫使对方屈服为目的。借鉴西方成熟的商业竞争理论和原则,将其应用到国家安全斗争领域,可以发现,国家安全竞争战略的根本宗旨是以同质竞争来增强"以正合"的能力,又通过异质竞争来提升以奇胜的能力。着眼当前国际斗争形势,国家安全竞争应把握以下主要原则:保持和塑造自身独特价值,保持成本和收益的平衡,有所为有所不为,竞争对抗与合作共赢相结合以及同质竞争与异质竞争相结合等。而要获取国家安全竞争优势,首先在路径选择上要坚持经济实力领先策略,这是大国竞争优势的根本所系。其次,相对于"增益",总成本最低化则是通过"止损"来确保竞争优势的不二法门。在此基础上,还要善于利用战略不对称的差异化、战略集中以及战略转型期内弯道超车等多种策略来获取竞争优势。新形势下,中国国家安全战略布局已初步形成有利的竞争态势,这种态势的核心是:办好自己的事情,避免与美国正面战略对撞,同时,加快打造非对称竞争优势以形成对美有效制衡态势。     

中美关系中的“修昔底德陷阱”话语

近年来,一些西方学者频繁使用"修昔底德陷阱"描述中美关系的性质和发展方向。这种历史类比存在明显的误导性,它忽视了一些保障中美能够绕开"修昔底德陷阱"的重要因素,包括:在全球层面,复合相互依赖的国际环境、集体安全机制的日益刚性化、历史上战争的苦难经验;在双边层面,中美在经济相互依赖和全球治理议题等方面的"结构性共同利益"、战略竞争的"社会进化式"发展以及核威慑条件下的国家理性。此外,当前网络时代伴随的整体思维、外交透明度,以及危机预防和沟通的便利也是中美能避免"修昔底德陷阱"的重要保障。将"修昔底德陷阱"话语与中美关系相关联对中美关系、地区形势以及世界局势都有危害,应全力避免。     

政治安全的内容及在国家安全体系中的地位

国家政治安全在内容构成上包括国家政治思想安全、国家政治制度安全、国家政治活动安全三个部分。包括国家政治权力归属在内的"权属问题"是国家安全的根本问题,"国家权属安全"是国家政治安全的核心。在内含"人民主权"观念的社会主义国体中,政治安全最核心的内容是全体国民政治权利的安全。在国家政治制度和国家政治思想不适应社会发展和国民需要时,特别是在国民具有变革现存政治制度和政治思想的普遍要求时,政治变革便成为国家政治安全和整个国家安全的重要条件和保障,从而也成为国家政治安全和整个国家安全的重要内容和构成要素。虽说政治安全是国家安全的本质,经济安全是国家安全的基础,但在社会主义民主政治条件下,只有国民安全才是国家安全及其所包括的政治安全的核心,是包括政治安全活动在内的一切国家安全活动的根本目的。     

金砖国家非传统安全合作的理论与实践路径

围绕金砖国家合作,不少人持有"褪色论"或"金砖分化"的悲观态度,主要论据是金砖国家之间并不存在很强的禀赋互补性,因而难以促成合作。然而,从合作理论和非传统安全问题的治理实践出发,金砖国家合作都是可行的。从理论维度出发,合作包括交换型合作与协作型合作。交换型合作认为,禀赋的互补性缺失,合作就难以形成。这也是当前学界对于金砖合作的争论焦点。然而,合作还包括协作型合作,达成共同利益,并不依赖禀赋的互补性就能塑造相互依赖的合作关系。再回到金砖国家在非传统安全问题领域内合作实践的维度,随着安全的内涵、议程和治理路径发生转变,国与国之间的共同利益越来越多。因为全球化时代安全议程空前复杂、具有非传统性,进而超越了一国之能力予以治理。具体到金砖合作的治理实践之中,塑造后天共同利益的操作路径包括:塑造"行动焦点"、把饼做大;培育信任、塑造伙伴关系等。此外,金砖国家合作强调包容性规范,持开放的姿态,重视与其他平台以及世界各国的合作。     

中国周边水资源安全关系之分析

水资源安全关系已经是中国对外关系,特别是周边关系构建的重要内容。中国周边水资源安全关系主要受水资源相对短缺与对跨国界水资源的依赖程度、国际流域中国家间的整体关系、地区环境与水资源开发利用重点以及中国国内跨国界水资源安全战略与管理等因素的影响。中国与周边国家水资源安全关系的构建与复杂的地缘政治密切相关,其内容涉及水质保护、水资源分配、水资源开发、水域环境保护、水资源管理和区域发展等方面。中国与十个周边国家尚未出现明显的水资源安全问题,但与七个周边国家存在语言性冲突,同时也存在水资源合作关系。目前,中国和周边国家在水资源安全关系上是一种非对称性的相互依赖关系,呈现出"低冲突-低合作"的结构状态。周边国家为改变这种结构状态下的水资源利用的"不安全感",正在联合某些域外国家在水资源领域形成一种制约中国的潜在联盟,由此对中国的周边关系和安全环境形成负面影响。未来中国应充分发挥水资源的战略"抓手"作用,构建服务于国家整体战略需要的水资源安全关系,利用好"亚洲水塔"的战略地位,把握水规则制定主动权和制高点,制定水资源安全战略,建立科学的利益分享与补偿机制,开辟周边外交新领域。     

综合安全与国家形象

国家安全的内涵具有动态多维特征,以"综合安全"观点界定国家安全的内涵比较准确地体现了全球化时代的基本特征和基本规律,"国家形象"对国家安全具有重要影响,因此有必要运用"综合安全"视角来探讨全球化时代的"国家形象"如何定位、如何建设的问题。基于这一认识,本文主张重新思考"国家形象"建设的目标和内容,改进国际传播的手段和效果。对中国的"国家形象"建设本文也提出了基本的意见。     

国家安全学是国家安全科学与国家安全哲学的统一

"国家安全学"既是一门学科的名称,也是一类学科的总称。作为一门学科,"国家安全学"是国家安全科学与国家安全哲学的统一;作为一类学科,"国家安全学"既包括多门国家安全科学,也至少包括一门国家安全哲学,其实也是国家安全科学与国家安全哲学的统一。就像系统思维应当成为当代国家安全科学的重要方法一样,民主理念应当成为当代国家安全哲学的最高原则。只有把科学与人性、系统思维与民主理念有机统一到国家安全学基本原理之中,确立一种系统的民主安全观,才能使国家安全理论对国家安全实务起到积极的服务和指导作用。     

Human Security as Global Security: Reconceptualising Strategic Studies

The article argues that global security should be seen as synonymous with human security, and that strategic studies should be located within that broader rubric. Mounting such an argument means meeting the charge of those who see the broader construction of strategic studies as vague and meaningless, and as detracting from the ability to make good policy. The article attempts, therefore, to map human security in as inclusive and systematic a way as possible. It attempts to show that the concept is neither vague nor meaningless, and is suitable, therefore, to be the basis for a comprehensive account of global security.     

Uncovering land tenure insecurities: tips for tenure responsive land-use planning in Ethiopia

Land-use planning, although a mechanism for development, can also generate insecurity during its implementation. This article argues that tenure security and land-use planning should not be implemented in isolation from each other. It posits that land-use planning – rather than restricting the security of people's tenure – has the potential to serve as a means of securing tenure. The article explores tenure (in)security elements in land-use planning as a crucial challenge in the urban town of Gelan Sidama Awash, Ethiopia. Using data collected through stakeholders’ interviews, it uncovers their tenure security challenges, and outlines a set of measures for enhancing tenure security through land-use planning.     

The Rationalities of European Border Security

Abstract

Any account of European security that ignores border security is incomplete, and any account of border security that disregards functional issues is unfinished. Border security is an empirical manifestation of a state's adaptation to its political environment, so a comprehensive analysis of European security requires that both the empirical and conceptual parameters of border management should be identified. However, this is problematic. Not only is functional security benignly neglected by the academy, but also border management is based on competing political imperatives, operational necessities, and social realities, rather than a coherent theoretical framework. Although the rationalities of European border security have yet to be systematically analysed, the Schengen accord is unlikely to provide the foundations needed for a comprehensive paradigm of European (border) security. This article focuses on the empirical and practical—rather than theoretical—dimensions of border security in order to rebalance the debate.     

Diversionary War and Argentina's Invasion of the Falkland Islands

The idea of “least likely” (or “hard”) and “most likely” cases with which to test theories has been addressed in many prominent works on qualitative methodology. Such research designs are especially common among those working in the field of security studies. Nevertheless, there exists considerable confusion regarding how these cases should be defined and how authors can draw sound inferences from them. At worst, such confusion leads to the impression that researchers apply the labels of least and most likely cases in an arbitrary fashion. This article advances two related rationales for categorizing cases as least or most likely, describing the necessary steps researchers should follow to employ them correctly. It incorporates literature from security studies to demonstrate the pitfalls that researchers may be vulnerable to without a precise idea of how least and most likely cases should be used.     

Jordan and the Abraham Accords

This article argues that Jordan should advocate for transforming the Abraham Accords’ regional integration initiatives into a regional security architecture that brings prosperity and security to all its members—including the Palestinians. Jordan is well positioned to influence the Accords’ strategic planners given its credibility, diplomatic assets, and strategic location; it will continue to be a lynchpin in regional security and future integration plans.     

南海问题新趋势及前景探析

南海问题是南海周边国家之间长期悬而未决的领土争端问题。近年来,南海地区安全形势的变化表现出一些新特征。文章分析了南海问题的最新发展趋势,探究其未来走向,认为应该采取一种综合性的危机管理与预防机制,通过加强在能源、非传统安全领域的功能性合作,建立互信措施,并在此基础上努力达成有约束力的规范性安排,以寻求最终解决南海问题。     

东北亚非传统安全:问题领域及合作模式

冷战结束后,传统安全在国际关系中的极度优先地位相对下降,非传统安全问题对国际社会带来的影响日益凸显。由于非传统安全拥有行为主体多样化、价值主体多层次、跨国性和嬗变性以及强调安全的合作性等特点,国家在该领域更易于达成合作。具体到东北亚地区,所涉及的问题领域包括金融危机、能源短缺、生态环境恶化、恐怖主义和大规模杀伤性武器扩散、非法移民、流行疾病等。尽管目前该地区非传统安全合作的制度化程度还不高,但由于各国在经济安全、能源安全、环境安全、社会安全等方面拥有广泛的共同利益,东北亚国家必将通过现实可行的制度设计来加强非传统安全领域的紧密合作。     

Towards security governance as a critical tool: a conceptual outline

This article argues that security governance can and should be reframed as a critical tool that enables us to understand and reappraise concrete practices of security provision. Security governance needs to move beyond the functional mapping of different governing arrangements and the presumption that security governance leads to effective and legitimate problem-solving in a quasi-automatic manner. In this article, we propose a framework that identifies the essential characteristics of security governance and turns them into critical questions with the aim to reveal persisting frictions and dilemmas. First, we trace the rise of security governance as concept and practice over the past decade and identify its central characteristics with regard to prerequisites, structures and consequences. Second, we reframe the core characteristics of security governance into critical questions and thereby develop an understanding of security governance as a critical tool. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of this approach with examples from EU security governance.     

The Securitization of Infectious Diseases

Securitization theory stipulates that an issue can be securitized if it is presented as an ＂existential threat＂ with speech acts and relevant norms established accordingly. Emerging and remerging infectious diseases have been increasingly framed in terms of security. The anthrax attacks and the outbreak of SAR accentuated the security implications of infectious diseases. Based on securitization theory, this article explores the process of securitizing infectious diseases. Using the World Health Organization （WHO） as a case study, the article argues that the securitization of infectious diseases has been reflected in the norms of WHO now that WHO maintains the authority in public health issues at the global level. However, the neutral position and technology-based approach on the part of WHO render the securitization problematic and controversial. The problems and controversies do not result from the securitization itself but from the imbalance of interests between developed and developing countries. While promoting securitization in WHO out of concern for their own security, developed countries should also take into consideration the public health concerns of developing countries.     

Separable but not separate forces: NATO's development of the combined joint task force

This article argues that the Combined Joint Task Force has profoundly affected the European security architecture. The CJTF structure shifted the terms of the European security debate from whether NATO should have a role in the post‐Cold War world to how NATO should act in this new security environment. The CJTF therefore helped NATO to survive its post‐Cold War existential dilemma, and to emerge with the same level of cohesion and cooperation that it possessed during the Cold War.