Individual and Contextual Determinants of Electoral Participation

Individual‐level explanations of electoral participation typically argue that non‐voting is determined by a combination of facilitative and motivational factors. We advance the argument that, beyond individual characteristics, there are pivotal contextual features which enable or impede individual action through specific incentive structures. Thus, contextual factors influence the individual propensity to vote or to abstain. For the first time the data of Selects 2003 allows for the testing of contextual effects, at least on the cantonal level. Several multilevel analyses show that high party competition, compulsory voting, and strong Catholicism foster individual participation. The findings clearly indicate that an individual's propensity to vote is influenced by personal characteristics as well as by cantonal attributes.     

How Exclusive is Assembly Democracy? Citizens' Assembly and Ballot Participation Compared

This paper analyses the difference between two specific forms of citizens’ involvements, namely whether a vote is cast by ballot or in a citizens’ assembly in which people gather in town halls to decide legislative questions in a deliberative manner. We show both theoretically and empirically how citizens’ assemblies and decisions at the ballot box substantially differ not only in terms of their underlying model of democracy, but also in their structural conditions and, thus, with respect to the social inequality of participation. We test our hypotheses in a Bayesian multilevel framework using real participation data collected from 15 political decisions made in a Swiss commune. Our results show that citizens’ assemblies are not only characterised by lower participation rates, but also by a particular composition of the electorate. While citizens’ assemblies are more equal regarding income groups, ballots favour a more equitable participation in terms of gender and age.     

Taking Turns at the Ballot Box: Selective Participation as a New Perspective on Low Turnout

Participation research on voting usually considers only one vote or election, and therefore separates citizens into the categories of participants and absentees. Consequently, low turnout often is discussed to mean that citizens are either not interested in or fed up with the political system. This paper argues that this cross‐sectional perspective severely underestimates political participation particularly in democracies in which citizens regularly are asked to vote using direct democratic ballot measures. Taking into account not just one but 15 ballot decisions simultaneously, this paper demonstrates that a majority of citizens participates only selectively, and therefore voluntarily chooses to abstain. Using official turnout data, which enables the tracking of individuals’ participative behaviour over time in a Swiss commune, this paper demonstrates that selective participation is indeed a relevant empirical phenomenon and presents first conclusions about who participates selectively and when these individuals are mobilized.     

Compulsory Voting and Income Inequality: Evidence for Lijphart's Proposition from Venezuela

What difference does it make if the state makes people vote? The question is central to normative debates about the rights and duties of citizens in a democracy, and to contemporary policy debates in a number of Latin American countries over what actions states should take to encourage electoral participation. Focusing on a rare case of abolishing compulsory voting in Venezuela, this article shows that not forcing people to vote yielded a more unequal distribution of income. The evidence supports Arend Lijphart's claim, advanced in his 1996 presidential address to the American Political Science Association, that compulsory voting can offset class bias in turnout and, in turn, contribute to the equality of influence.     

Voting Attitudes and Behaviour Among Aboriginal Peoples: Reports from Anangu Women*

At state and particularly in federal (or national) elections, Aboriginal Peoples in remote regions turn out to vote in low numbers. A number of hypotheses have been offered to explain the low voting participation of such constituencies. Some have asserted that Aboriginal Peoples do not wish to vote; others have suggested that “first order” elections have low salience for Aboriginal Peoples, thereby depressing turnout. The low political efficacy thesis has also been proposed, as well as cultural and mechanical factors. We consider whether any of these hypotheses are plausible using data obtained in group interviews with twenty‐nine Anangu Women in remote South Australia. On the basis of this fieldwork we consider means for stimulating turnout within this, and in similar, constituencies.     

The Underexplored Species: Selective Participation in Direct Democratic Votes

While electoral research usually distinguishes voters from abstainers, in the Swiss direct democratic context one needs to take into account a third category of citizens, the selective voters, who decide anew at each vote whether they will participate or not. This article offers an investigation of this common but under‐researched form of participation. To that end, we take advantage of a unique data‐set linking official turnout data with survey data. Our results show that selective voters constitute the bulk of the electorate. While they form a heterogeneous group in terms of socio‐demographic characteristics, selective voters lean more towards abstainers than towards permanent voters with respect to political variables. We argue that this is not necessarily bad news in terms of democratic theory.     

When Valence Crushes: Explaining the Electoral Failure of the German FDP in the 2013 Election

This paper examines why the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to gain electoral success in 2013 despite being well positioned in terms of left–right ideology. Indeed, its vote share dropped from its highest ever point in 2009 (14.6 per cent of the national vote) to its lowest ever in 2013 (4.8 per cent of the vote). The paper shows that the FDP’s valence dropped dramatically between 2009 and 2013. In addition, voting simulations show that the FDP was positioned close to its vote-maximising positions on policy and ideology. However, given the FDP’s extremely low valence it could not have taken any set of policy positions that would have significantly increased its vote share.     

Participation Under Lula: Between Electoral Politics and Governability

This article shows how and why the initial attempts of the Lula administration in Brazil to promote innovative counterhegemonic participatory strategies, such as those put in place by the PT in some of its subnational governments, fell by the wayside. It is argued that the implementation and scope of participatory initiatives under Lula were caught between electoral motivations and the need to secure governability. On the one hand, the need to produce quick results in order to maximize vote‐seeking strategies hindered attempts to promote counterhegemonic participation, while Lula and his inner circle opted for policies that would score immediate marks with the poorest sectors or influence public opinion. On the other hand, participation also took a back seat because the PT concentrated most of its energies on reaching agreements with strategic actors, such as opposition parties or powerful economic groups.     

The 2015 Catalan Election: The Independence Bid at the Polls

This paper examines the context, campaign and main determinants of how Catalans voted in the 2015 regional election. The elections were exceptional because the incumbent and the remaining Catalan nationalist parties framed the contest as a de facto referendum on secession. In this paper we scrutinise whether attitudes towards independence affected vote choice and whether they eclipsed other traditional significant vote-driving factors such as the state of the economy or government performance. Results show that, although the independence issue became a major determinant of vote choice, the elections did not become a pure plebiscite on secession, since voters also used their vote to hold the regional government accountable for its past performance.     

Closed spaces or (in)competent citizens? A study of youth preparedness for participation in elections in Zimbabwe

This study sets out to explore the barriers to youth participation and how youth could be supported to enhance their participation in elections and governance processes in Zimbabwe. The study was carried out using quantitative methodologies. A survey was carried out to collect data, which in turn was analysed using SPSS. Evidence from the study shows that decision-making processes are not improving and becoming more participatory and youth inclusive. It was observed that youth participation in elections and governance processes is low and it is hampered inter alia by restrictive political structures, lack of interest, lack of information and lack of funds. Whilst some youth are ready to run for public office, they need to freely participate in politics and develop without restrictions, including getting support through leadership training. These young candidates will also need training in elections and governance processes as well as mobilise and sensitise other youth to register to vote if they are to succeed in their quest for public office. Resources and support must be given to youth-led initiatives that are reaching out to young people and ensure they play their part in democratic processes at all levels of governments.     

Why Do Citizens Vote Against Their Basic Political Values?

The literature on correct and consistent voting has focused on issue‐opinions and argument‐positions when examining whether vote decisions correspond to individual political preferences. However, the question whether vote decisions align with basic political values has largely been neglected so far. This paper introduces a novel measure named value consistent voting. It finds that, in Switzerland, around 25% jettison their basic political values when deciding on proposals. Using multilevel regression analysis of survey data, this paper investigates the determinants of value consistent voting. Three theoretical approaches are tested; the sophistication, identification and ambivalence hypotheses. The results show that political sophistication and identification foster value consistent voting. Moreover, there is an interaction between education and adhering to the preferred party’s vote recommendation. This finding supports the thesis that highly educated citizens use heuristics most efficiently. However, the more ambivalent people are, the more often they vote against their basic political values.     

Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs' Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.     

Who Mobilizes? Participatory Democracy in Chávez's Bolivarian Revolution

This article assesses popular mobilization under the Chávez government's participatory initiatives in Venezuela using data from the AmericasBarometer survey of 2007. This is the first study of the so‐called Bolivarian initiatives using nationally representative, individual‐level data. The results provide a mixed assessment. Most of the government's programs invite participation from less active segments of society, such as women, the poor, and the less educated, and participation in some programs is quite high. However, much of this participation clusters within a narrow group of activists, and a disproportionate number of participants are Chávez supporters. This partisan bias probably reflects self‐screening by Venezuelans who accept Chávez's radical populist discourse and leftist ideology, rather than vote buying or other forms of open conditionality. Thus, the Venezuelan case suggests some optimism for proponents of participatory democracy, but also the need to be more attuned to its practical political limits.     

Partisan Pork‐Barrel,Independents and Electoral Advantage: Australia's Regional Partnerships Program in 2004

This article, building on previous research into earlier Australian pork‐barrel schemes, uses data from Australia's Regional Partnerships Program (RPP), and its apportioning of $104 million in constituency‐level grants in 2003–4, to explore the distinctive logic of parliamentary pork‐barrel politics. Results show that the Liberal‐Nationals Coalition's distribution of these funds was consistent with three electoral priorities — to reward its own MPs and show voters that the government “can deliver”; to provide vote‐winning assets in the Coalition's most marginal seats, where even small vote gain can make the difference between victory and defeat; and to try to re‐establish its credibility at the local level in regional seats that had proven vulnerable to inroads made by Independent candidates.     

Electoral participation in African democracies: the impact of individual and contextual factors

This paper addresses the question of how electoral participation at the individual level is affected by various political and sociological factors in new democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Relying on Afrobarometer (Round 5) data, the study examines the determinants of voting for over 12,000 voting aged individuals in eight countries. Findings confirm the importance of individual characteristics such as age, associational networks, discussing politics, party identification, religiosity, trust and satisfaction with democracy in predicting turnout at the individual level. But more importantly, the addition of contextual factors significantly improves the individual-level model predicting vote choice in these democracies.     

Participación política de los migrantes. Reflexiones sobre la extensión de la ciudadanía en Argentina

Political participation for both, foreigners living in Argentina as well as nationals living abroad, is the topic of this paper. Through legislation, both groups have limited, in whole or in part, voting rights. An empirical study is carried out in order to identify that discrimination. The study of the legal framework allows us to verify whether or not migrants are considered political actors, empowered to participate actively in public life, and become part of the common will. This review reveals that there is a heterogeneous landscape of the legislative framework that enables the vote in national, provincial and local elections. It is argued that restricting citizenship to nationality or residence is a simple and unrealistic approach to contemporary human mobility. An open, inclusive and flexible citizenship is more consistent with a true democratic order.     

When There's No Easy Way Out: Electoral Law Reform and Ballot Position Effects in the 2011 Hamburg State Elections

The new electoral law in the state of Hamburg, which was first used in the 2011 elections for the state parliament, abolished the optional overall list vote in the electoral districts and thus forced voters to cast preference votes for individual candidates. Supporters of the new electoral law assume that voters will inform themselves better about the candidates. This assumption contrasts with the voters' tendency to choose their favourite option based on the little information which is provided on the ballot paper. We show that the new electoral law has missed its target and that voters rely heavily on the ballot paper cues, resulting in the replication of the behaviour pattern they were used to under the optional list vote and earlier under the closed list. Most importantly the ballot position has the largest effect on being elected to the parliament.     

“Voluntary PR Voting” in the Election of Swiss Regional Governments

This paper analyses citizens' voting behaviour in the April 2011 elections of the regional governments in the cantons of Zurich and Lucerne. These elections were conducted with a majoritarian electoral system in a multi‐member district. In both cantons, the number of candidates in competition is relatively limited due to “voluntary PR”, that is, a coordination effort among parties that aims to achieve a proportional distribution of government seats. If citizens cast all of their votes, they must support candidates from various ideological camps. Alternatively, they can limit the number of votes used to cast a more concentrated vote. This paper examines what factors lead citizens to cast an ideologically concentrated or dispersed vote. The results show that the degree of ideological concentration of citizens' votes is related to partisan preferences, strategic considerations, political knowledge, and the level of satisfaction with the government performance.     

The Institutional Design of Referendums: Bottom‐Up and Binding

Democratic theorists generally ignore that the institutional design of popular vote processes varies in important ways. However, these differences in design influence the kind of role that these processes play in and their impact on democratic systems. We intend to remedy this situation by launching a normative discussion about the institutional design of popular vote processes in the Debate “Do Referendums Enhance or Threaten Democracy?” In this introductory essay, we first insist on the necessity to adopt a differentiated conception of popular vote processes. We then highlight some aspects of our normative approach to the institutional design of popular vote processes. We finally argue that referendum processes can positively contribute to democratic systems when they are 1) launched bottom‐up and 2) legally binding.     

The majority as minority: women and contemporary politics in Scotland,New Zealand and Finland,c. 1960–96

SUMMARY

In this article, Catriona Burness seeks to establish the current potential for increasing significantly the level of women's participation in politics in Scotland and the United Kingdom in the light of the experience of their representation in Scotland, New Zealand and Finland since 1960. The comparator countries have been selected because they are small countries of comparable size, with advanced political cultures, in which women have been eligible to vote and be elected to parliaments for a considerable period of time. The article reviews the history of women's representation in each of these countries and seeks to identify patterns in the developments that have taken place. It then discusses the prospects for further advances on the current position, in particular in the light of the probable introduction of a devolved assembly in Scotland.