美国与拉美民粹主义的主要区别与左右分野

民粹主义在美国和拉美地区具有不同的发生和发展史。与在拉美不同,民粹主义在美国起源时间较早,但发生频率较低,持续时间较短,彼此关联性不强,影响程度较弱,激进程度较轻。特朗普式的民粹主义在很大程度上体现了美国民粹主义的“拉美化”倾向。民粹主义在美国和拉美有很明显的左右分野,左翼民粹主义在拉美长期占据主流,右翼民粹主义在美国则是主要形式。在与何种类型的左右翼结合、是否与民族主义结盟、集权程度等多个方面,这两个地区的左右翼民粹主义也存在较大差别。目前,美国和拉美的左右翼民粹主义正在同时崛起。特朗普的民粹主义可谓集美国的左右翼民粹,尤其是极右翼民粹主义之大成。民粹主义说到底是民主政治的民粹化,源于大众民主政治的内生问题。美拉民粹主义的重要差异,主要来自两个地区不同的政治文化传统和选举民主机制,以及民主体制不同性质和程度的政治衰败。美拉民粹主义左右分野的背后,实质上是公民的基本权利保障不彰所致。具体而言,是自由议程与平等议程之间的张力以及由此导致的社会主要矛盾的不同。因此,必须认真对待左右翼民粹主义,加强制度建设,提高国家治理能力,同时还应积极参与全球治理。     

Mano Dura: El Salvador responds to gangs

Although it is increasingly recognised that violence, crime, and associated fear are challenging democratic governance in Latin America, less attention has been paid to the ways in which state responses to crime contribute to the problem. By analysing El Salvador as a case study, this article addresses three key interconnected issues in the debate. First, it explores the dynamic of violence. It then locates youth gangs as violent actors within this context. Finally, it addresses the state response to the growing phenomenon of youth gangs. It is argued that current strategies, dubbed Mano Dura – Iron Fist, employed by the Salvadoran government serve to reveal the fragility of the democratic project, exposing the underside of authoritarianism that remains key to Salvadoran political life in the transitional process from civil war to peace.     

2011年拉美地区安全形势回顾

2011年拉美地区继续保持总体和平的安全形势,地区内国家通过双边和多边机制构建互信和加强防务合作,应对与地区外国家的冲突。巴西和阿根廷积极加强双边防务合作,成为深化地区安全合作的重要驱动力。拉美国家,尤其是南美国家在近年普遍提高军费支出,掀起一轮军备更新的热潮,但是这种状况并未恶化为一场地区性军事竞赛,拉美军费支出的绝对值仍然处于较低水平。在非传统安全领域,拉美面对来自有组织犯罪和恐怖主义的挑战。反毒是当前美国与拉美安全合作的关键所在,美国希望加强与拉美国家的合作,以便共同打击贩毒,改善公共安全。     

Laying a Foundation for the Criminological Examination of Right-Wing,Left-Wing,and Al Qaeda-Inspired Extremism in the United States

Despite several overlaps between crime and terrorism, criminological examinations of terrorism to date have been limited. To fill this gap in the research, we examine several individual and contextual socio-demographic characteristics of a diverse sample of extremists operating in the United States who have committed violent crimes. In addition, we provide a comparative analysis to explain and understand differences between extremists who have committed violent crimes while active in either far-Right, far-Left (including environmental and animal rights extremists), or Al Qaeda and affiliated movements. To assess the impact of external factors on the nature of domestic extremist violence, we also comparatively examine these three types of domestic extremists before and after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. We find several similarities across domestic extremists but many important suspect- and county-level differences as well. We end the paper with suggestions for future research that could extend the criminological study of terrorism.     

中国与拉美国家关系中的美国因素

近年来,中国与拉美国家的关系持续快速发展引起美国特朗普政府的警惕,美国采取多重手段公开阻扰中拉合作,包括在拉美事务上频频发表反华言论、加大打击拉美左翼政权、拉拢右翼政权组建"反华阵营",并警告与中国新建交的拉美国家。特朗普政府施压手段取得了一定成效,部分拉美国家对华态度有所调整,但从长远看,基于中美关系、美拉关系及中拉关系的本质特点,未来中拉合作仍将保持良好势头。不可忽视的是,美国将继续阻扰中拉关系发展。中国应妥善应对中拉关系中的美国因素,保证中美拉三边关系良性互动。     

欧债危机对拉美经济的影响机制与拉美的政策措施及成效

在当前经济制度背景下,欧债危机主要通过贸易、投资和金融等机制影响拉美经济:欧盟需求不足可能使拉美国家的出口收益减少;欧盟信贷额度下降、股市波动、资本流动性减少,会减少对拉美国家的投资,导致拉美国家投资不足和金融市场不稳,对拉美国家的产业结构调整也会产生消极影响。面对危机,拉美国家的应对策略并非临时的或短期的政策,而是从长期应对危机的历史中汲取了经验和教训。拉美国家实行稳健的宏观经济政策和灵活的浮动汇率政策,通胀处于可控水平,银行监管适当,整体债务水平较低,加上较为充足的外汇储备和经济运行状况总体良好等因素,为拉美国家抵御欧债危机的冲击发挥了相当大的减缓作用。但是,欧债危机对拉美经济可能会存在长期效应。中国与拉美的贸易为拉美经济的发展提供了动力,但中拉关系中还存在很多不稳定因素。未来中拉之间的战略依存度将越来越高,经贸往来也将更加密切。     

A transformation from political to criminal violence? Politics,organised crime and the shifting functions of Haiti's urban armed groups

In 2004, an unlikely combination of rural insurgent groups and urban gangs fought over the fate of President Aristide and brought Haiti to the brink of civil war. Ten years on, the country is still plagued by instances of armed violence. While most policy experts and practitioners seem to agree that over the last decade, violence transformed from a political into a criminal phenomenon, scholars remain divided over the question of whether Haiti's urban armed groups should be framed as a political movement or as hardened criminals. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and overt observation conducted during six months of fieldwork in Haiti in 2013, this article argues that it is crucial to refocus the analysis on the functions gangs fulfil on behalf of their politico-criminal sponsors. In contrast to the proclaimed internal shift from political to criminal motivation, this approach suggests that the constantly changing priorities of political entrepreneurs and organised crime groups shape the nature of the violent service offered by urban armed groups. The findings of this article mirror comparable dynamics in other countries in Latin America or sub-Saharan Africa and have crucial implications for international agencies working in the urban environment and dealing with urban armed groups.     

Public Goods or Political Pandering: Evidence from IMF Programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe

This article uses empirical evidence from Latin American and East European International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs from 1982 to 2001 to analyze the nature and the extent of preferential lending practices by the IMF. Unlike prior work, which focused on narrow political interference from large IMF member states, the present analysis differentiates between such narrow interests and the Fund's international systemic responsibilities, which may justify the preferential treatment of systemically important countries to prevent broader regional or global crises. The empirical results suggest that systemically based deviations from technocratic impartiality predominate in situations—such as the Latin American debt crisis—where international financial stability is under serious threat. Under such circumstances, economically important countries do receive preferential IMF treatment but only when experiencing severe crises, while narrow "private goods" considerations are largely sidelined. When systemic threats are less immediate—such as in Latin America and Eastern Europe in the 1990s—IMF favoritism reflects a more volatile and region-specific mix of private and public considerations in line with the changing interests of powerful Western nations in the developing world.     

拉丁美洲与马克思主义的“错遇”

马克思主义建立在马克思、恩格斯以欧洲中心的经验基础之上,具有浓烈的欧洲色彩。马克思本人在1857年的文章中将拉丁美洲的“解放者”玻利瓦尔视为拿破仑三世滑稽的模仿者。马克思、恩格斯一般只在涉及欧洲问题的情况下,才会关心欧洲之外的世界。马克思、恩格斯去世之后,传承马克思主义的第二国际各社会主义政党也聚焦于欧洲自身的问题,很少关心欧洲之外的世界。但由于在殖民地问题上的立场影响到了第二国际各社会主义政党的选举,第二国际不得不讨论殖民地问题。为应对资产阶级的殖民政策,荷兰社会民主党代表提出了“社会主义殖民政策”问题。1907年第二国际第七次代表大会在德国斯图加特召开,与会代表就殖民地问题展开了激烈讨论。作为阿根廷社会党代表的曼努埃尔·乌加特参与了这次会议,随后形成的将马克思主义或社会主义与拉丁美洲民族主义结合在一起的基本思想,成为马克思主义或社会主义拉丁美洲化的开端,马克思主义或社会主义可以脱去其诞生时所具有的欧洲色彩。     

Denouncing or Supporting the Chilean Dictatorship in West Germany? Local Associations of Solidarity and Their Transnational Networks Since the 1970s

After the coup of 11 September 1973 in Chile, the international solidarity movement, including Chilean exiles, that flourished on a global level not only tried to help the victims of the military junta with their material needs, but also carried out advocacy work in order to denounce the crimes committed by the regime and to collect documents and information that could be used as evidence in future court cases. At the same time, the junta also drew on a network of foreign supporters, including European ones. In order to analyze theses networks’ campaigns to denounce (or cover) the crimes perpetuated and their ongoing judicial and memory struggles in Latin America and Europe, from the 1970s until today, this article provides a study of mobilizations between Chile and West Germany, namely of the Forschungs- und Dokumentationszentrum Chile-Lateinamerika in West Berlin, the West German section of Amnesty International and the supporters of the German sect in Chile “Colonia Dignidad”.     

特朗普执政以来美国对拉美政策的调整及其影响

在美国的全球战略中,拉美地区历来占据着重要而特殊的位置。长期以来,美国视拉美为自己的“后院”,在拉美拥有独一无二的主导权和影响力。特朗普政府执政后,公开祭出“门罗主义”的旗帜,大幅度调整对拉美的政策,展现出更公开的干涉行径、更浓厚的利己色彩、更明显的分化企图和更强烈的排外取向,意在将拉美打造成一个政治上亲近美国、经贸上依赖美国、安全上不威胁美国的“后院”。短期看,特朗普政府对拉美的政策调整取得了一定的成效,对拉美的掌控有所强化。但长期看,美国和拉美地区之间的深层次矛盾和冲突并未完全纾解,在特定的时空背景下甚至存在进一步被激化的可能性;与此同时,特朗普政府对拉政策的调整还加剧了大国在拉美展开战略博弈的风险。特朗普政府的拉美政策如何进一步演变和发展,美拉关系如何变化,这些课题值得中国学界高度关注并深入研究。     

How soon is now? The effects of the IMF on economic reforms in Latin America

This study assesses the effects of IMF loans on economic liberalization in Latin America. Specifically, we are interested in whether the Fund receives greater cooperation from Latin American borrowers in the initiation of some economic reforms over others. Using a two-stage treatment effects model as well as panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) regression for 15 Latin American countries from 1980 to 2003, we find that IMF participation tends to lead to greater trade and capital reforms and less reform in privatization. These relationships are tempered by the country??s relationship with the United States along with domestic group pressures.     

Richard Nixon and Economic Nationalism in Latin America: The Problem of Expropriations, 1969-1974

During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Nixon administration confronted the problem of how best to protect US economic interests in Latin America during a period of rising economic nationalism. After extensive debate, the president approved a policy designed to deter expropriations and rein in nationalist economic sentiment by threatening to terminate US and international financial assistance to countries that expropriated American holdings without prompt and adequate compensation. As it turned out, however, this policy was little short of a disaster. Nixon's stance heightened American unpopularity during a period when US credibility in Latin America was already on the wane, and failed to have any restraining effect on either the number of expropriations by Latin American countries or the strength of economic nationalism in the area. Informed by domestic and bureaucratic pressures and the same ideological proclivities that have long characterized American relations with the underdeveloped world, Nixon's policy on the expropriations issue ultimately proved ineffective and even pernicious to US interests in Latin America.     

大国安全与地区发展的悖论?——基于冷战早期美拉关系的考察

为了遏制共产主义的发展,战后初期美国积极在西半球编织反共防务安全体系。与此相比,美国对拉美国家的经济援助需求消极怠慢,对它们所面临的经济发展问题视而不见,采取了“贸易而非援助”的经济政策,激化了美拉矛盾。20世纪五六十年代,一些拉美国家实行了国有化和土改等民族主义改革,并同苏联加强贸易往来,反美反独裁的游击运动风起云涌。在美国看来,这与其在西半球的经济安全和反共战略相悖。为了化解危机,美国一方面以反共和集体安全为名,对“敌对”政权进行军事干预,另一方面也在不断调整自身政策,加大对拉美国家的经济援助力度。不论怎样,谋求和巩固在西半球的霸主地位始终是美国制定拉美政策的根本目的,安全和稳定是其维护的主要利益。在理论上,只有拉美国家的深层经济发展问题得到有效解决,才能消除不稳定的隐患,所以,美国国家安全与拉美地区发展是并行不悖的。但在现实中,由于拉美国家的既得利益集团与美国关系密切,美国不可能切实推进拉美国家的经济改革,同时美国又常以安全防务政策化解由经济发展引发的拉美问题,这种立场上的偏差注定了美国提出的经济改革方案的“无效性”,而仅仅是一种权宜之计。     

The irrelevance of negative campaigns to political trust: Experimental and survey results

This article examines how media and partisan mechanisms of accountability influence presidential agendas in Latin America. The authors argue that responsiveness increases in powerful presidential systems when opposition parties and free media help citizens hold presidents accountable between elections. Where presidents must contend with a cohesive, ideological opposition and effective constraints to their power, they turn to valence issues with broad appeal and over which they have greater control. A free media—one without significant economic, legal, or political constraints—pressures the president to respond to the electorate's concerns, which include crime and corruption due to the incentives that motivate news content and the media's agenda-setting powers. Analyzing more than 50 presidential terms across 18 countries, the authors show that when Latin American presidents face either free and competitive media or strong legislative oppositions, homicide rates and the level of perceived corruption tend to be lower. Thus, this study proposes that efforts to improve media or partisan environments, or both, would help address Latin America's accountability deficit and promote good governance in the region.     

Hearing Latin American Voices in International Relations Studies

This article offers a general account of international relations studies (IR) in Latin America through an examination of IR thinking in the region, an inventory of IR theory courses in seven Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Trinidad and Tobago), and an analysis of journal articles selected from five specialized IR journals in Latin America. Although considerable U.S. influence upon the ways in which IR is approached in Latin America is made apparent through this narrative, the specific context in which IR studies have evolved in the region has substantially altered the content of U.S. IR discourse. Therefore, the article concludes with a discussion of the possible contributions of Latin American IR to Anglo-American perspectives in the field.     

中国共产党与拉美共产党关系的曲折发展

1949年中华人民共和国成立,拉美各国人民特别是这些国家的进步力量和共产党受到极大鼓舞。20世纪50年代和60年代初,中共与拉美各国共产党的关系比较密切。到1960年,拉美22个共产党和工人党中,有18个党与中共建立和发展了友好关系。60年代初期,拉美共产党虽然与中共有分歧和争论,但仍与中共维持着正常往来。1965年至70年代后期,由于拉美大多数共产党在国际共运大论战中支持苏共立场,中共与拉美多数共产党的关系恶化和中断。与此同时,从拉美老共产党分裂出来的新党陆续与中共建立起党际关系。中国“文化大革命”结束和改革开放开始之后,大多数拉美共产党与中共恢复和发展关系,中共也调整了与拉美新党的关系。无论是与拉美老党还是与拉美新党的关系,中共都遵循中共十二大确立的“独立自主,完全平等,相互尊重,互不干涉内部事务”党际关系四项原则。此后,中共在党际关系方面,又突破了主要与共产党交往的传统,开始尝试与拉美民族民主等各类政党开展交往并取得重大突破,党际交往逐步由外延向内涵转变。     

Richard Nixon and Economic Nationalism in Latin America: The Problem of Expropriations, 1969–1974

During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Nixon administration confronted the problem of how best to protect US economic interests in Latin America during a period of rising economic nationalism. After extensive debate, the president approved a policy designed to deter expropriations and rein in nationalist economic sentiment by threatening to terminate US and international financial assistance to countries that expropriated American holdings without prompt and adequate compensation. As it turned out, however, this policy was little short of a disaster. Nixon's stance heightened American unpopularity during a period when US credibility in Latin America was already on the wane, and failed to have any restraining effect on either the number of expropriations by Latin American countries or the strength of economic nationalism in the area. Informed by domestic and bureaucratic pressures and the same ideological proclivities that have long characterized American relations with the underdeveloped world, Nixon's policy on the expropriations issue ultimately proved ineffective and even pernicious to US interests in Latin America.     

中拉关系及中国对拉战略研究的一种进路:进展与问题

中拉关系研究日益成为拉美学界的一种“显学”。有关这一研究领域的问题、材料和思路繁多,构成各具特色且相互参照的研究路径。21世纪第二个10年间出现的进路之一,聚焦于中拉关系及其研究的标志意义、问题意识和学术积累,尝试将学界有关中拉关系的主要分析模式与最新的政治、经济、社会交往数据资料整合,为这一研究确立一些基本的研究议题、参量和思路,力图全面考察中拉关系的历史进程、发展现状及其在区域乃至全球范围呈现的意义。作为保持该研究进程可持续性的阶段性成果,这一进路提炼出十大问题,即中拉关系新阶段的界定、中拉关系的战略定位、中拉整体合作与双边合作的辩证关系、中拉整体合作与拉美地区主义、中拉产能合作、中拉科技合作、中拉人文交流、中拉关系的制度性约束、中拉关系与全球治理和中拉发展战略对接等。进一步的研究则需要关注中拉关系及其研究的动态化和前沿性、主体化和互应性以及多样化和联动性等几对关系。     

打击跨境诱拐儿童妇女的现状及措施

拐卖儿童妇女是最严重地侵犯儿童妇女权利的行为,也是人类社会绝对不能容忍的行为。杜绝这类犯罪需要国际间的通力合作。今天,非常高兴能够与越南妇联以及亚洲基金会和中国的同事们一起探讨反对拐卖儿童妇女的问题。一、中国拐卖儿童妇女犯罪现状分析拐卖儿童妇女犯罪可以有多种方法。为了更深入地了解该类犯罪在中国广西的现状,我们从被拐卖儿童妇女的去向分析拐卖犯罪的实质。当然,在我们调查的过程中,无论是一线的办案警察还是老百姓,也都十分关注被拐卖儿童妇女的去向问题。(一)在中国,被拐卖的儿童妇女至少有以下但不止以下4种去向:1.…