Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement

This paper implements a methodology that exploits firms and households’ optimality conditions to measure money laundering for the Italian economy. This approach, first implemented by Ingram et al. (J Monet Econ 40:435–436, 1997) to the household production sector, and by Busato et al. (Using theory for measurement: an analysis of the behaviour of underground economy working paper, Aarhus University, 2006) for measuring the underground economy, allows to generate high frequency time-series for money laundering using a theoretical two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated over the sample 1981:01–2001:04. The analysis of the generated series suggests two main results. First, money laundering accounts for approximately 12 percent of aggregate GDP; second, money laundering is more volatile than aggregate GDP and it is negatively correlated with it.

Money laundering: some facts

This paper tackles the quite difficult topic of money laundering. After defining money laundering, and after explaining the three stages (steps), placement, layering and integration, the paper tries a quantification and estimation of the volume and development of money laundering activities. Besides it shows national and international measurements to fight money laundering and various effects on macroeconomics. The overall turnover in organized crime for example had a value of 800 billion USD in 2001 and increased to 1.700 billion USD in 2007. These figures are very preliminary with a quite large error, but give a clear indication how important money laundering and the turnover of organized crime is nowadays.

On the frontline against money-laundering: the regulatory minefield

Intelligence gathering plays a vital role in the ‘war’ against money laundering. Particularly important in this intelligence gathering process is the global network of Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs) fed by a host of auxiliary (primarily financial) institutions required to report suspicious transactions. This paper briefly reviews the history of the international system of anti-money laundering measures imposed on the financial industry and other regulated businesses, the development of the global network of FIUs and their system of information gathering. It will examine some of the issues that arise from the regulatory framework within which this information gathering takes place. It will also address the issue of instrumental clarity and whether existing and new directives, requirements and approaches are sufficiently clear to enable reporting institutions on the ‘front-line’ to operate effectively. Liliya Gelemerova is a doctoral (PhD) student at Tilburg University and Senior Investigator at Nardello & Co.

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Money laundering laws as a political instrument: the social cost of arbitrary money laundering enforcement

The paper explains the reasons for modern money laundring legislation, namely to reduce the incidence of certain primary offences. Whereas enactment and effectuation of this legislation is costly, its postive effects typically materialize in other jurisdictions (positive external effects). The paper shows that international covenants seek to give direct incentives to overcome the possible underprovision in anti-money laundering legislation and enforcement. The paper also shows how, in such an international context, anti-money laundering legislation can be easily misused as a political weapon in the cross-border fight against "unwanted individuals" and gives concrete examples for such an arbitrary enforcement.

East Meets West in Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Finance: Policy Dialogue and Differentiation on Security, the Timber Trade and ‘Alternative’ Banking

This paper compares and contrasts South East Asian and European Union countries’ perceptions of the priorities for anti money laundering (AML) and anti terrorist finance (ATF) in relation to three industries: security goods and services; the timber trade; and ‘informal’ value transfer and banking services. It might be expected that all countries would equally support each of these aspects of AML/ATF policies, without differentiating between the industries generating the proceeds. As this paper will show, however, historical experiences, contemporary political relations and patterns of trade shape countries’ approaches, resulting in distinctive enthusiasms and reservations. In a nutshell, the EU points most strongly to products and services originating in Asia as posing AML/CTF risks, and locates primary responsibility for monitoring and control as falling within Asia - a projection of risk and responsibility that is reciprocated by Asian countries. Asian countries perceive a need for tighter control of dangerous products exported by the west, for example, small arms and light weapons, and of related money laundering circuits. Asian and European policy makers increasingly articulate concerns over illegal logging and related laundering, however European importers and their governments see responsibilities for this as falling primarily within Asia. Finally, the EU (like the US) perceives high levels of laundering risk in ‘informal’ value transfer/banking services, in which Asian-run businesses have a global competitive advantage. For the future, as the international balance of trade shifts, and as Asia increases its influence in international fora including those concerned with AML/CTF, so the region’s policy preferences may be expected to carry more weight.

An evaluation of the UK’s anti-money laundering and asset recovery regime

This paper describes the UK’s anti-money laundering and asset recovery laws and the aims and objectives behind the regime since the introduction of the Proceeds of Crime Act in 2002. It then evaluates the regime in terms of the amount of criminal assets recovered, its application against organised crime and its impact upon the price of illegal drugs.

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Offshore financial centres: the political economy of regulation

This paper claims that the regulation profile of the Offshore Financial Centres (OFCs) with respect to the international standards defined to prevent potentially harmful phenomena—such as aggressive taxation, financial instability, money laundering and terrorism finance—depends on their specific structural features. In the designing of the regulatory framework the OFCs policymakers define the optimal degree of compliance maximizing a political cost benefit function. A simple model shows that the policymaker convenience to establish an OFC jurisdiction can depend on peculiar country endowments, consistently with a path-dependency approach. The model is empirically tested using a 222 countries’ sample, using different classifications of OFCs. On the one hand we find that the probability to be an OFC is greater with higher political stability, lower crime level, lower voice in international organizations, and if the country is characterized by a Common Law juridical system. Furthermore a low resource endowment seems to have a slightly influence on the choices to be an OFC. On the other hand it seems not to be crucial to use English as official language, to be a former colony, and also the geographical position it is not fundamental. The results are used for an overall assessment of the adequacy of the international policy aimed to fill the regulation gap, raising doubts on the persistency of the name and shame approach.

Researching the use of force: the background to the international project

This article provides the background to an international project on use of force by the police that was carried out in seven countries. Force is often considered to be the defining characteristic of policing and much research has been conducted on the determinants, prevalence and control of the use of force, particularly in the United States. However, little work has looked at police officers’ own views on the use of force, in particular the way in which they justify it. Using a hypothetical encounter developed for this project, researchers in each country conducted focus groups with police officers in which they were encouraged to talk about the use of force. The results show interesting similarities and differences across countries and demonstrate the value of using this kind of research focus and methodology.

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Regulated and unregulated insider trading around earnings announcements

This paper analyses insider trading behaviour around annual and interim earnings announcements during changing legislative environments in Sweden from 1980 to 2003. Using a unique data set, we are able to explore the nature of insider trading patterns from unregulated to strongly regulated insider trading markets. We find limited evidence of opportunistic insider trading. Insiders seem to be reluctant to sell stocks before positive earnings announcements. They also tend to time their trades in conjunction with an immediate post-announcement period, i.e. “safety trading”, which becomes more evident within stronger legislation environments. Some support for contrarian trading behaviour is also found.

Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing Risks of Prepaid Cards Instruments?

Advances in information and communication technologies (ICT) have had, and will continue to have, wide-ranging influences on how the banking and finance industry operates. Making payments and transmitting money electronically or online are increasingly popular. An increased dependence on global electronic payment systems and the ability to move large amounts of money expeditiously across different jurisdiction, however, expose both payment processing companies and consumers to an evolving spectrum of threats such as fraud and money laundering. This article considers ways in which prepaid cards can be exploited by organised criminals and terrorists to launder their illicit proceeds of crime, and to transfer money anonymously and instantaneously over the globe for use by terrorist organisations. Risks identified in this article include recruiting card mules (e.g. international students) to purchase prepaid cards, and the mailing or shipping of prepaid cards out of the country without regulators being aware. To minimise risks of abuse by organised criminals and terrorists, legislation will need to adapt to deal with threats that organised criminals and terrorists seek to exploit. Future directions for research in relation to prepaid cards are also identified.

Singing the same tune? International continuities and discontinuities in how police talk about using force

This article focuses on a research project conducted in six jurisdictions: England, The Netherlands, Germany, Australia, Venezuela, and Brazil. These societies are very different ethnically, socially, politically, economically, historically and have wildly different levels of crime. Their policing arrangements also differ significantly: how they are organised; how their officers are equipped and trained; what routine operating procedures they employ; whether they are armed; and much else besides. Most relevant for this research, they represent policing systems with wildly different levels of police shootings, Police in the two Latin American countries represented here have a justified reputation for the frequency with which they shoot people, whereas at the other extreme the police in England do not routinely carry firearms and rarely shoot anyone. To probe whether these differences are reflected in the way that officers talk about the use of force, police officers in these different jurisdictions were invited to discuss in focus groups a scenario in which police are thwarted in their attempt to arrest two youths (one of whom is a known local criminal) by the youths driving off with the police in pursuit, and concludes with the youths crashing their car and escaping in apparent possession of a gun, It might be expected that focus groups would prove starkly different, and indeed they were, but not in the way that might be expected. There was little difference in affirmation of normative and legal standards regarding the use of force. It was in how officers in different jurisdictions envisaged the circumstances in which the scenario took place that led Latin American officers to anticipate that they would shoot the suspects, whereas officers in the other jurisdictions had little expectation that they would open fire in the conditions as they imagined them to be.

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Working with People Who Are Violent to Their Partners: A Safety Building Approach

This article offers a new perspective on the assessment, treatment and management of adults who are violent to their partners. Using a worked case example, it describes how a solution-focused approach is used to develop, and evidence, safety for all family members.

The Czech transition banking sector instability: the role of operational cost management

In this article we show—using the estimated cost efficiency of banks—that besides the risk (proxied by the share of non-performing loans), the quality of operational cost management was an equally important determinant of bank failure risk during the decade of banking sector transformation in the Czech Republic.

Old wine in new bottles: a county-level case study of anti-corruption reform in the People’s Republic of China

This paper examines the role of the target-based responsibility system for building upright Party style and clean government in combating corruption in local China. It argues that the effectiveness of the target-based responsibility system in corruption control is compromised by a number of implementation hurdles in practice. Based on a close examination of one county, Shaanxi Province in the northwest China, this study shows that low measurability of the targets, the conflict between anti-corruption work and other evaluation targets, and the impact of patronage politics account for the implementation failure of the target-based responsibility system. The fundamental problem lies in that under China’s unified cadre personnel management system, political will can interfere with the handling of corruption on a case-by-case basis, no matter what kind of anti-corruption mechanism is employed. Under this context, the adoption of the target-based responsibility system in fighting corruption results in nothing more than “pouring old wine into new bottles.”

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Deterrence and Individual Differences Among Convicted Offenders

Conflicting evidence exists on how criminal propensity moderates deterrent effects, and there is little empirical evidence on this issue from relatively experienced offenders. This study tested how variation in criminal propensity (operationalized as “low self-control”) moderates deterrent effects in a sample of convicted offenders in New Jersey’s Intensive Supervision Program in 1989 and 1990. Offenders’ perceptions of the risks and consequences from violating ISP were associated with whether they successfully completed ISP. Moreover, lower self-control did not diminish, and if anything, enhanced these deterrent effects.

Institutionalized corruption: power overconcentration of the First-in-Command in China

Among various kinds of corruption in China, corruption of the First-in-Command (FIC) is most pernicious, threatening the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the stability of the state. This paper examines several specific institutional arrangements under China’s current political structure, including the people’s congress, the ruling party system, and the collective leadership team system, to see how they have contributed to power overconcentration in the hands of FICs. This is done in a two-round process: first through the collective leadership team and then by the gestating decision-making rule. The paper also assesses four institutional innovations designed to prevent FIC corruption.

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Contracts obtained by means of bribery: should they be void or valid?

This paper argues that contracts obtained by means of bribery should be valid. Nullity and voidability decrease the incentive for voluntary disclosure, assist corrupt actors with enforcing their bribe agreements and provide leeway for abuse. Thus, they run counter to effective anti-corruption. It is argued that other instruments are more suitable for preventing corruption.

Torn between two targets: German police officers talk about the use of force

Considering earlier research into police use of force as well as the judicial and practical frame of police work in Germany, the article presents the results of an empirical study on the individual and collective legitimization of the use of force by German police officers. There are numerous justifications for the use of force expressed by focus group participants in eight German Federal States who were responding to a hypothesized scenario. In the discussions observed within the groups, reference is first made to the state’s duty to prosecute alleged offences and the measures or formal actions to do this—hence, the legal authority to use force. In the course of the discussions, however, it became obvious that illegal violence may occur, although it was not perceived as such by the officers. Overall, and after an intensive analysis of the focus group discussions, it can be stated that use of force (whether legal or not) depends on the police officer’s perception of the resistance of the person being engaged with. In this regard, different social–cultural or physical–material factors can be identified. They have different influences on the individual legitimization of police actions, intertwined with the perception of the situation as constructed by the officer. Three ways of perceiving the situation can be deduced, resulting in different patterns of justification for the use of force.

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The null hypothesis is not called that for nothing: statistical tests in randomized trials

This article aims to update readers on different ways to arrange one’s thinking about conventional null hypotheses in randomized trials. It covers basic criticism of conventional hypotheses and, beyond this, covers relevant developments in methodological, organizational, and science policy arenas. This article includes coverage of new ways to frame null hypotheses, new technical resources, standards for registering trials and reporting on them, cumulating results, common mistakes, and post-trial analysis of null results. The paper includes ideas for research and development on each topic.

Legislating for Your Own Good: Criminalising Moral Choice. The Modern Echoes of the Victorian Vaccination Acts

Victorian vaccination legislation has important echoes for the present age in the dilemma over how to promote compliance with government-endorsed scientific and medical public health strategies for the welfare of the community in a context of growing popular mistrust of such initiatives, in terms of their likelihood to confer benefits as well as their possible negative impacts on individuals. Victorian experience of dealing with the issue of ‘conscientious objection’ to policy initiatives seen as intruding into the area of individual moral choice, especially parental choice for children, is invoked to suggest better ways of comprehending the present resistance to take-up of the MMR vaccine, and its wider implications; as well as commenting on the role of the media.