The Law of Crime Concentration: An Application and Recommendations for Future Research

Objective

We address four outstanding empirical questions related to the “law of crime concentration” (Weisburd in Criminology 53:133–157, 2015): (1) Is the spatial concentration of crime stable over time? (2) Do the same places consistently rank among those with the highest crime counts? (3) How much crime concentration would be observed if crimes were distributed randomly over place? (4) To what degree does the spatial concentration of crime depend on places that are crime free?

Methods

The data are annual counts of violent and property crimes in St. Louis between 2000 and 2014. Temporal stability in the spatial inequality of crime is measured by computing the fraction of crimes that occur in the 5% of street segments with the highest crime frequencies each year. The spatial mobility of crime is measured by computing the number of years each street segment appears in the top 5% of street segments. Poisson simulations are used to estimate the fraction of crimes that could appear in the top 5% of street segments on the basis of chance alone. The impact of crime-free locales on the spatial concentration of crime is evaluated by comparing results from analyses that include and exclude crime-free street segments from the crime distributions.

Results

The concentration of crime is highly unequal and stable over time. The specific street segments with the highest crime frequencies, however, change over time. Nontrivial fractions of street segments may appear among the 5% with the highest crime frequencies on the basis of chance. Spatial concentration of crime is reduced when crime-free street segments are excluded from the crime distributions.

Conclusions

The law of crime concentration is not a measurement artifact. Its substantive significance, however, should be assessed in future longitudinal research that replicates the current study across diverse social settings.

     

Crime in Asia: Toward a Better Future

There are two fundamental ways to reduce crime: fix crime prevention weaknesses or build on crime prevention strengths. Three crime prevention strengths that have delivered most Asian societies comparatively low and falling levels of violence are considered: (1) war reduction as a path to reduction of common criminal violence; (2) comparatively low levels of inequality; (3) comparatively low ratios of stigmatizing to reintegrative social control that respects human dignity. Transformative justice that addresses the root causes of wars, reduces inequalities of wealth and power, and empowers communities to do their own restorative justice are paths considered for building a nonviolent Asian future.     

大数据视野下犯罪治理模式的现代转型

犯罪治理是社会治理的有机组成部分。大数据已使犯罪侦查和控制模式发生根本性变革,利用大数据实现犯罪治理现代化是未来的发展方向。海量化的大数据为犯罪治理提供信息支撑、为精准锁定犯罪目标创造有利条件、为预防犯罪和科学决策提供极大可能。大数据时代,犯罪治理模式转型面临犯罪思维智能化、犯罪手段智能化、数据孤岛、电子数据提取保全要求高以及公民隐私保护等困境。为此,需要将公安大数据纳入国家大数据整体发展战略、破解"数据孤岛"困境、构建新型公安大数据犯罪战略防控平台、规范电子数据(证据)的提取与固定工作,切实维护数据安全。     

Using Dasymetric Mapping for Spatially Aggregated Crime Data

With availability of crime data to the public via sources such as the Uniform Crime Reports, and increasing geographic information system (GIS) capabilities for mapping crime, macro-level studies of crime have advanced knowledge of how crime is distributed over large areas. Choropleth mapping, commonly used in macro-level studies, visually displays data by assigning the number of crimes or crime rate to the corresponding spatial unit and using different shades or textures for each value or classified values creating a thematic map. However, crime incidents or crime rates are not dispersed evenly within spatial units, and choropleth mapping masks the underlying nuances of the distribution. Artificial boundaries, along with variations in the size of the unit of analysis, can further distort the true distribution of crime. Dasymetric mapping provides a methodology for refining the distribution of crime within a spatial unit. It does so by using additional data, such as land use and census data, to provide a realistic estimate of how crime may be distributed within the units of analysis. Dasymetric mapping is also useful in creating density maps to reveal clusters of crime normally masked with choropleth maps. This paper will show how dasymetric mapping can estimate the spatial distribution of aggregate level residential burglary within political boundaries in Massachusetts based on land use and housing data.     

The Future of Consumer Web Data: A European/US Perspective

The article considers the subject of clickstream data from aEuropean/US perspective, taking into account the Data ProtectionFramework (Data Protection Directive 95/46/EC; Directive onPrivacy and Electronic Communications 2002/58/EC) and the USlegal framework and in particular, the Wiretap Act U.S.C. 2701(2004) and related statutes. It examines the extent to whichclickstream data is considered "personal data" within the DataProtection Directive and the implications to consumers and businesses.     

我国网络知识产权犯罪制裁体系检视与未来建构

通过对网络环境下知识产权犯罪罪名体系适用的司法实效考察,反思我国知识产权犯罪制裁体系,可以发现,在网络和知识经济的双重时代背景下,目前我国知识产权的刑法保护存在着法益保护范围过窄和犯罪行为定性混乱或缺失的问题。因而,在宏观上实现从"适度保护"向"同等保护"的刑事政策转化;在微观上继续进行知识产权犯罪罪名扩大解释的司法努力的同时,推动知识产权犯罪的刑事立法更新,是加强网络环境下知识产权的刑法保护、建构完善的知识产权犯罪制裁体系的必然选择。     

在校大学生犯罪的原因与预防

近年来,大学生犯罪率呈上升趋势。纠其原因,和大学生的生理特点、心理特点以及大学生所处的社会环境有着密切的关系。鉴于大学生犯罪原因的复杂性,对大学生犯罪应实施预防的系统工程。在这一系统工程中,包括预测系统、预防系统与控制系统。具体的措施为:从心理咨询工作的开展到校园文化的净化,从关注高校管理体制到增强大学生的法制教育,从深化高校的全面改革到治理高校的周边环境。     

侵犯著作权罪之犯罪未遂形态研究

侵犯著作权罪属于行为犯、情节犯.作为有自身特殊性的侵犯著作权罪存在犯罪未遂形态,但必须在修正后的"情节严重"前提下进行认定.侵犯著作权罪规制了四种可以对应于著作权法的实行行为:复制行为、发行行为、出租行为与信息网络传播行为.可以依据著作权法的理解来认定这四种实行行为的"着手"与"未得逞",从而认定其犯罪未遂形态.     

篡改数据截留应付款构成诈骗罪

【裁判要旨】行为人以非法占有为目的,利用信息优势,通过篡改支付数据,使被害人对应付金额产生错误认识,截留应支付款项据为己有的,构成诈骗罪。     

Using National Incident-Based Reporting System Data for Strategic Crime Analysis

The utility of the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) forstrategic crime analysis has yet to be explored. The NIBRS represents anadvancement over existing reporting systems and possesses considerableutility to frontline law enforcement with respect to strategic crimeanalysis. This paper discusses the utility of the NIBRS for identifyinglocal and regional trends in narcotics related offenses. As an example, weselected four localities from the 1997 Virginia NIBRS data to examine trendsin the sale/distribution and possession of narcotics. Our analysis showsthat the NIBRS provides significantly more incident-related detail than hasheretofore been available for strategic crime analysis at the regional orstate level. Moreover, the NIBRS provides neighboring communities theopportunity to compare information on emerging crime patterns and criminalenterprises which extend beyond local boundaries. Finally, enhancing localreporting compliance by highlighting the strategic utility of the data tolocal law enforcement will ultimately ensure the quality of the data set,which can then be employed by larger entities as well as criminal justiceresearchers for policy development and planning.     

The Crime Kuznets Curve

Objectives

Criminologists have long studied the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Empirical evidence is inconclusive, pointing at different directions. This may reflect the conflicting theoretical predictions on the relationship between these phenomena, but also the prevailing methodological choice which focuses on linear relationships even though nonlinearities are plausible theoretically.

Methods

In this paper, we revisit the empirical relationship between economic conditions and crime by exploring potential nonlinearities. We look at flexible parametric specifications that include up to a cubic term of per capita income (or one dummy for each income quintile) and nonparametric and semi-parametric specifications (such as General Additive Models). Our results are robust to controlling for the standard socioeconomic, demographic, and policy determinants of crime, as well as to including a lagged dependent variable or state and time fixed effects.

Results

We document the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between crime and income within US states for the period 1970-2011. Crime increases with per capita income until it reaches a maximum, and then decreases as income keeps rising. This “Crime Kuznets Curve” (CKC) exists for property crime and for categories of violent crime that can be related to economic appropriation, like robbery, and is less robust for violent crimes not connected to economic incentives. We show that this pattern cannot be explained by correlated changes in economic inequality or by changes in law enforcement.

Conclusions

In addition to providing robust evidence of the existence of a CKC, our findings lay the groundwork for studies exploring the underlying theoretical mechanisms. These should go beyond income inequality or law enforcement, and should explain why the results hold more clearly for property than for violent crime. Our findings and subsequent research to understand the underlying drivers are relevant for policy, as they suggest that violent conflict cannot be tackled solely by the trickle-down forces of economic growth.

     

The definition of ICT Crime

In the last few years, a lot of attention has been paid to what is usually called ‘ICT Crime’. In this contribution, the term ICT Crime is analysed from both a practical and theoretical legal perspective. It will be argued that it is very difficult if not impossible to define ICT Crime unequivocally. Furthermore, there seems to be insufficient grounds to see ICT criminality as an autonomous legal discipline, as an independent functional discipline or as a specialisation. An important reason for dealing with ICT Crime as if it is a problem area seems to be fear in governmental organisations that new technology could lead to forms of criminality that are outside their reach of control. Furthermore, the application of ICT has led to a reorientation of legal powers with respect to investigation and prosecution. However, these subjects should be dealt with at an international level.     

The Moral Mirror Image of Crime: A Comparison of Recorded Crime and Crime Recorded in Fiction

Moral and ethical aspects of crime are often ignored in most criminological research. In order to probe these two dimensions, crime recorded in fiction was compared with statistically recorded crime. Two hypotheses were tested: the first suggested that crime fiction portrayed the “reality” of actual statistics, while the second suggested that crime fiction was totally unrelated to crime statistics. Comparing data obtained from a North American literary journal and crime statistics obtained from a Canadian province, the results of the study supported the second hypothesis and indicated that crime fiction was totally unrelated to recorded statistics. Crime fiction seemed to represent a moral pacemaker of the perceived fears of the public, while crime statistics seem to represent the criminal pulse of society.

The negative correlation between fiction and recorded statistics is a significant find in that it indicates the reading public's preoccupation and fascination with a very small segment of criminal activity in society—an unrealistic fear of serious injury or death due to violent crime, far out of proportion with reality especially when impending doom is much more probable on the highways in automobile accidents.     

论雇佣犯罪特点

雇佣犯罪案件不同于其它刑事犯罪案件，雇佣犯罪案件中犯罪目的动机与具体犯罪行为相分离，导致雇佣犯罪表现出独特的隐蔽性、预谋性、交易性、特定性、复杂性等特点，其独特的犯罪方式给揭露打击、防控惩处带来巨大的挑战，必须深入全面地认识雇佣犯罪的特点规律，才能提出有效的打防对策，确保在同刑事犯罪作斗争中立于不败之地。     

侦查效益略论

侦查的目的是惩罚犯罪行为人,伸张社会正义,预防犯罪,其具体任务主要是收集、调取犯罪嫌疑人有罪或者无罪、罪轻或者罪重的证据材料并予以核实,拘留或逮捕现行犯或重大嫌疑分子。侦查的目的是侦查活动的核心,也是衡量侦查工作成败的标准。作为衡量侦查目的实现程度的标志,侦查效益就成了侦查学研究的应有之义。本文从侦查效益概念分析出发,厘清其内涵和特征,在此基础上构建侦查效益实现机制,并进一步分析影响侦查效益实现的相关因素。     

The Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations: An Exploratory Method for Discrete Multivariate Analyses of Crime Data

Derived from comparative approaches in both qualitative and quantitative research, the current study describes a simple exploratory technique for the multivariate analysis of categorical data. This technique is referred to as the conjunctive analysis of case configurations. After describing the logic and underlying assumptions of this conjunctive method, it is applied and illustrated in the study of the federal sentencing of drug offenders. The relative value of this conjunctive approach for purposes of exploratory data analysis and its overall utility as a method for confirmatory research are also discussed.