阿根廷债务危机的形成及启示——阿根廷金融危机探源之二

阿根廷金融危机实质上是一场以支付危机为主要特征的债务危机。它是因阿根廷政府丧失偿债能力、不得不宣布倒债而引发的。阿根廷债务危机启示人们,在全球化的条件下,一国政府只有坚决控制财政赤字,保持健康的财政,不断提高出口创汇能力,保持合理的资金流入,制定并实施恰当的债务政策,控制内外公共债务的规模,减少对外债的依赖,维护公共财政的平衡,保持政府信用,才能有效地避免债务危机的发生。     

阿根廷债务技术性违约的根源与影响

2014年下半年,阿根廷陷入2001年以来的第二次主权债务违约,此次债务违约是一种技术性违约,其直接原因是美国最高法院判决阿根廷政府必须向NML资本管理公司等少数钉子户债权人履行全额支付责任,而阿根廷不愿对这部分债权人进行支付,同时因技术原因而无法对其他债权人履行债务支付责任。阿根廷债务违约的发生源于明显的体制机制弊端,如债务重组的机制不完善、对债权人的差异化处置机制以及债务重组中门栓法、同等权益条款以及未来权益追溯权等条款导致的法律问题。此次债务违约可能重创阿根廷财政与经济稳健性,并使得全球性主权债务重组机制面临新的制度性冲击,然而,它对全球经济和国际金融体系的影响较为有限。阿根廷债务困局带来的启示是应高度重视财政预算的稳健性及主权债务处置的审慎性。     

"断裂状"社会的形成及其影响--对阿根廷1930～1955年间的政治分析

主要观点 1929年世界经济危机和第二次世界大战是阿根廷经济、政治发展的分水岭.本文把1930～1955年视为阿根廷发展进程中的关键时期.融入世界市场体系的特殊方式及1930～1955年的政治选择使阿根廷形成了一个对立的"断裂状"社会.     

对2005年国际形势的一些看法

2005年的国际形势错综复杂。美日两国大选折射出其民众与世界各国人民观念上的反差;美国精于算计的对外政策得出事与愿违的结果;霸权主义的指挥棒失灵;布什主义不得不在策略上进行调整“;中国威胁论”和“中国机遇论”交锋激烈。     

2005年大国关系

文章对2005年大国关系的走势作了归纳性的评述,其特点为:美国的全球扩张势头受阻、多边力量发展势头迅速、大国关系协调发展。在大国关系这一层面上,文章又分别对俄美关系、俄欧关系和欧美关系诸方面进行具体的阐述。文章认为,2005年的国际形势显示了两极格局解体后的过渡时期的特征。     

老挝2004年形势与2005年前瞻

2004年的老挝政局相对稳定 ;经济缓慢增长略高于预期 ;外交活跃 ,作为东盟轮席主席国并首次承办第十次东盟首脑峰会获得成功 ,其在东盟内部的地位与作用有所提升。展望2005年 ,老挝政局将保持平稳 ,但不稳定因素增多 ;经济社会将持续发展 ,但面临严峻挑战 ;外交趋于主动并在东盟组织内扮演重要角色。一、政治2004年5月和9月 ,老党分别召开了七届八中、九中全会。八中全会提出了本年度政治工作奋斗目标。九中全会在确定“2005年老挝经济社会发展方针及奋斗目标”的同时 ,还对老党“八大”筹备工作作了安排。年内对部分党政领导人职务作了微调…     

新加坡2004年回顾与2005年展望

2004年是新加坡顺利完成新老政权交替的一年 ,政府不断加大打击恐怖主义力度 ,保证社会和谐稳定 ;经济增长迅猛 ,2004年经济增长率达8.4 % ①。一、政治 :政权顺利交替2004年新加坡政治的主要特点 ,一是顺利实现了新老权力的交替 ;二是加大反恐怖斗争力度。(一)顺利地实现新老政权的交替执政的人民行动党从李光耀为首的第一代领导人开始就确立了自我更新的作风 ,不断引进新鲜血液 ,确保人民行动党的活力与冲劲 ,使政治领导层的接班顺利进行。吴作栋于1990年接替李光耀出任新加坡总理后 ,就一直把物色新的接班人和政治领导层的更新当成优先的…     

2005年上半年俄罗斯对外贸易浅析

2005年上半年,俄罗斯对外贸易继续保持大幅度增长,与欧盟国家的贸易伙伴关系进一步密切.外贸出口增势强劲,外贸进口快速增长.对外贸易增长依赖国际市场能源、原材料有利行情的同时,国内需求增长对外贸的正面影响进一步显现.下半年俄罗斯对外贸易仍会平稳增长,但增势可能趋缓.     

2005年国际形势和中国外交

2005年总的国际形势可概括为:美国继续推行一超独霸战略,但明显表露出力不从心;世界主要力量开始向均衡化方向发展;经济全球化成为影响国家内部和国与国关系的主要因素;恐怖主义和公共安全威胁对国际政治的影响日甚。中国外交着眼多边外交,增强外交软实力,取得了一系列新的成果。     

智利政府克服贫困的新举措--"智利团结计划"

智利民主政府在延续原军政府时期基本经济政策的同时,在社会政策领域进行了重大调整,把减少贫困,促进社会公正作为社会政策的基点.在对过去10多年扶贫工作进行初步总结的基础上,智利政府于2002年5月提出以反对极端贫困为核心的"智利团结计划"为贫困家庭提供社会心理支持、提供保障性现金补贴、提供家庭救济金、推动贫困家庭优先进入各类社会发展计划."智利团结计划"与智利政府过去10多年的扶贫计划有密切传承关系,体现了政府社会政策的连续性.与原来的计划相比,"智利团结计划"更重视贫困家庭的参与,更强调政府各级机构的协调,更重视各地方政府和地方组织的作用,更强调创新,因而也更加切合实际.     

Job Swap versus Russian Politics

On September 24th, the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, proposed at a congress of the ruling United Russia Party that Prime MinisterVladimir Putin be selected as the sole presidential candidate for e...     

Diversionary War and Argentina's Invasion of the Falkland Islands

The idea of “least likely” (or “hard”) and “most likely” cases with which to test theories has been addressed in many prominent works on qualitative methodology. Such research designs are especially common among those working in the field of security studies. Nevertheless, there exists considerable confusion regarding how these cases should be defined and how authors can draw sound inferences from them. At worst, such confusion leads to the impression that researchers apply the labels of least and most likely cases in an arbitrary fashion. This article advances two related rationales for categorizing cases as least or most likely, describing the necessary steps researchers should follow to employ them correctly. It incorporates literature from security studies to demonstrate the pitfalls that researchers may be vulnerable to without a precise idea of how least and most likely cases should be used.     

Sino-European Relations in Debt Crisis

Sovereign debt problems exist not only in European countries.Most advanced countries are troubled with a debt burden.There has been a lot of discussion about the reasons for the crisis in Europe-high g...     

Argentina's Turmoil: The Politics of Informality and the Roots of Economic Meltdown

This article argues that Argentina's current economic crisis cannot be fully understood without an analysis of recent political processes. It defines the politics of informality that have characterised Argentina's democracy-building processes. This de-institutionalisation of politics was perceived as the facilitator of democratic consolidation, state reform and economic restructuring. In practice, the politics of informality contributed to the crisis of 2001. The article begins by analysing the scale of the political and economic crisis from 1999. It is followed by an analysis of the politics of informality implemented by the Raúl Alfonsín and Carlos Menem's governments and then goes on to explain the consequences of informal politics. Finally, it concludes by outlining the main factors that conspire against democracy and economic stability in Argentina.     

巴基斯坦的公共债务问题

由于巴基斯坦财政赤字居高不下,国际收支状况恶化,税收、投资增长缓慢,加之债务管理不善等原因,巴所面临的债务问题日趋严重。该问题不仅阻碍了巴基斯坦经济的健康发展,制约了巴基斯坦的反恐成效,还威胁到了巴基斯坦的主权完整。     

Grassroots Civil Groups: The Potential and Limits of Democratic Change in Argentina's Interior Provinces

While the current crisis in Argentina has many facets--economic, political and social--it originated and has been fuelled by the unfulfilled promise of a democracy in which political leaders are accountable to society. In the 1990s it was widely hoped that the growing number of grassroots civil groups would contribute to democratisation, particularly in the interior provinces where clientelism and patronage have long been thought to hamper local development and the country's progress as a whole. Those hopes faded as social unrest broke out in Argentina's interior provinces in the mid-1990s and the country began its slide towards collapse by the end of the decade. Yet the problem of political change in the interior provinces remains a central issue in Argentina's current crisis, and its future prospects. The ability of civil groups to contribute to democratic change in the interior provinces is constrained in different ways, depending on whether clientelism or patronage prevail in social relationships. Clientelistic and patronage-based societies differently condition the types of grassroots groups that arise, the scope of their activities and their potential for contributing to democratic change. Exploring these differences offers important insights into Argentina's current crisis and the potential and limitations of change in the interior.     

2005年的非洲形势

2005年的非洲,政治联合继续向纵深发展,经济保持中低速增长,安全形势总体趋向稳定,外交更趋活跃务实,非洲的国际地位明显提升.与此同时,围绕石油、资源、反恐和联合国改革等问题,西方大国对非争夺方兴未艾.中非传统友好关系更加牢固,双方在各个领域的务实合作稳步推进.     

2005年的俄罗斯

2005年是普京连任后的第一年,也是近年来俄罗斯最平稳的一年.在这一年里,普京以国家稳定和长远发展为目标,政治上继续完善联邦制、加强中央权威,力求从制度上保障国家统一;经济上在保证较高增速的前提下,逐渐放弃"纯粹自由市场经济"的理念,加强国家对经济的调控能力,以政府引导性投资带动民间资本向国家鼓励的领域投入,提升俄经济竞争力;外交上强化对美国在独联体策动的"颜色革命"的防范和反击,以提升东方外交促进与西方外交.     

2005年的日本

2005年是日本全方位推行“正常国家化”战略的加速转型年。内政上,小泉提前解散众议院,借大选一举巩固执政基础,为加快“修宪”进程铺路;经济上,内需主导型复苏得以实现,经济走过拐点,步入新扩张期;安全上,全面突破战后束缚,为战略转型清障,强化日美同盟、军事大国化驶入快车道     

When More Media Equals Less News: Patterns of Content Homogenization in Argentina's Leading Print and Online Newspapers

This article examines content homogeneity, understood as the degree to which different media focus on the same stories during a particular news cycle, in Argentina's leading print and online newspapers. It focuses on the role of technical practices across media and over time—during a decade for print and during 24 hours for online. The analysis shows three main patterns of homogenization: (a) an increase in the level of homogeneity in print newspapers tied to their online counterparts' practice of publishing breaking and developing stories during the day, (b) an increase in the level of homogeneity in online newspapers as the day unfolds, and (c) a densely interconnected web of homogeneity across print and online newspapers in 2005. We draw from these findings to make contributions to research on online news and media sociology and to reflect upon the direction and meaning of changes in journalistic form in the current media environment.