Diplomatic and Security Strategies of the Obama Administration： Has the ＂Time of Change＂ Come？

It is of great significance to study the diplomacy and security strategies of the Obama administration which took office on 20th January 2009, not only because of the current global financial crisis but also because of Obama＇s ＂politics of change＂, a slogan raised by him in the campaign. How to lead America out of the seemingly ＂still deteriorating domestic financial and economic dilemma is not only the most important criterion for judging Obama＇s governance capability but also the biggest obstacle affecting the new Democrat administration＇s domestic and foreign policies. To analyze the adjustments of the Obama administration＇s foreign and security policies, we must focus our attention on how it will take corresponding measures to overcome the financial crisis and how to put its campaign slogan ＂politics of change＂ into practice. In retrospect of the Obama administration＇s first three-month performance, the ＂politics of change＂ promised by him has dramatically evolved into the ＂diplomacy of change＂ first. In the following sections, we will thoroughly analyze the trend of the new administration＇s diplomatic and security strategies on the basis of its first one-hundred-day performance.     

New U.S.-Russia Nuclear Disarmament Treaty And the Myth of ＂No Nukes＂ World

U.S. president Barack Obama and Russian president Dimitri A. Medvedev recently signed a new U.S.-Russia treaty on cutting offensive strategic weapons which has some positive impact on promoting the process of nuclear disarmament in the world. Seen from a deep perspective, however, the new treaty is mainly of symbolic significance with limited role in reality.     

Analysis of ＂China-U.S. Strategic Competition＂ Theory

In his article entitled “Big Trouble Brewing in the Hood” published at online Sydney Morning Herald on August 3, 2010, Professor John Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago claimed that “the balance of power in Asia is expected to change significantly in the next few decades, as China increases its military capabilities”, and “China＇s rise is likely to spark an intense security competition with the U.S.”. He then made a provocative speech on “The Gathering Storm： China＇s Challenge to U.S. Power in Asia” at the Sydney University. When interviewing with an Australian news agency,     

The Evolution of American ＂New Politics＂

Since the Presidential election in 2012, the ＂fiscal cliff＂ issue has plagued the United States. Although this issue relates to the economy, it reflects the unprecedented political polarization brought by the ＂New Politics＂, an escalating conflict between ＂Red America＂ and ＂Blue America＂. The ＂New Politics＂ refers to the intensifying and increasingly ill-tempered rivalry between the Republicans and Democrats, which has seen a decline in presidential authority, a deepening of divisions in society, and a shrinking of the political middle ground. In the past, the tension between the two main political parties was regarded as the motive power of U.S. politics, a source of dynamism and innovation. Now, partisan conflict is preventing both sides from seeking common interests, and seems to have become a struggle only for party interests.     

Abstracts

1.The Korean Nuclear Issue Tests Obama＇s Asia Diplomacy,.by Shi Yongming, Senior Researcher, China Institute of International Studies and Guest Researcher of CPDS. Obama＇s Asia policy has just shown an outline of its ＂smart diplomacy＂, i.e., on the premise of sticking to the basic strategy, it attaches great importance to strengthening relationship with the newly-emerging powers and seeks to extend the U.S. influence on Asia by means of dialogue and cooperation. However, the Korean nuclear issue, which is very likely to reach a complicated and even dangerous impasse, is now testing Asia policy of the U.S. new administration. The issue is not only a strategic bottleneck that is a reflection of U.S.-DPRK relationship, but also is constrained by Japan and ROK, whose interests are closely related to the changes of the situation, as well as by some political elements in the U.S.     

Characteristics of the ＂Islamic State＂

The extreme organization that calls itself the ＂Islamic State＂ has alarmed the world with its rapid rise and grave damage while drawing sharp censure from numerous directions. In his speech on the strategy of dismantling the ＂Islamic State of Iraq and Syria,＂ American President Barak Obama＇ s called it ＂a terrorist organization, pure and simple.＂ 1 Rooted in Middle East turmoil, facilitated by the irresponsible policies of the great powers and nearby countries, the ＂Islamic State＂ （also known as ISIS or ISIL） stands out from among regional terrorist organizations in a number of vital characteristics. ISIS, disowned by the A1-Qaeda, nevertheless challenges it and seems to gain the upper hand. What lies behind its success are at least two powerful characteristics： its religio-political ambition to establish a recognizable country, and its ability to entice the zeal of Western jihadists.     

Return to Tradition in the Name of Change

The author argues that although a new military strategy of US Armed Forces is far from being completed, an outline has emerged, that is to develop a military strategy suitable for ＂soft power diplomacy＂, rather than Bush＇s strategy of unilateralism and preemption. The author then makes some analysis on the difficulties Obama is facing to fulfill this change.     

Reemergence of the ＂Germany Issue＂ in Europe Ding Yuanhong

The history of Europe has always been closely linked with the rise and fall of Germany during the past century or so. In Europe, the ＂Germany Issue＂ has all along been an important issue of universal significance to various countries in the region. After experiencing successive onslaughts of global financial crisis and sovereign-debt crisis in Europe, situation in Europe has been undergoing a number of major changes, among which the most striking one is Germany asserting itself as Europe＇ s No.1 power in the wake of the crises. Therefore the fate of the Euro Zone and the future of the European integration will invariably hinge on Germany. No other European country can play a more important role in the future development of Europe than Germany. In this sense, today＇s Germany is bringing forth once again the ＂Germany Issue＂ in Europe.     

U.S.-China Relations: A View from Europe

China is playing a crucial role in the Obama administration＇s attempt to build a ＂multi-partner world＂ based on cooperation and shared responsibilities. In light of the profound geo-economic transformations of 2008-2009, the United States has little choice but to strive for partnership, especially with the country that is Washington＇s major creditor. Obama＇s foreign policy approach, however, goes beyond a mere pragmatic adaptation to the new realities and constitutes a unique window of opportunity for the establishment of an unprecedented level of U.S.-China cooperation. From a European perspective, the positive evolution in U.S.-China cooperation has been welcomed as a key contribution to the resolution of the global problems confronting the planet. The European Union has nevertheless reacted with apprehension to the suggestions by American commentators for the creation of a U.S.-China ＂G-2＂. That issue was discussed at the EU-China Summit underlines the seriousness of the proposal and serves, in itself, as a significant indicator of the great transformation of intemational relations characterizing the years 2008-2009.     

U.S. Societal Landscape: Reality and Challenges

Barack Obama became the first African American president calling for change. He is not only faced with serious challenges on the economic and financial fronts, but also has to deal with a variety of major social problems which will potentially reshape American society in the 21 st century： increasing economic inequality, complex race relations, an unsustainable healthcare burden and a weakening education system. These are issues which have existed for decades in the U.S., but now it seems that President Obama has a better opportunity to make a ＂real change＂ happen than his predecessors, because American society is going through a fundamental evolution.     

Trends of Obama＇s Foreign Policy

Different views exist in the Chinese and foreign academic circles regarding the foreign policy that Obama is likely to pursue. Some scholars emphasize the continuity of American diplomacy, saying that the room for policy readjustment is limited, while others stress the transformative nature of American diplomacy, thinking that Bushism has failed and Obama will certainly abandon Bushism in some important policy areas and make a fresh start.     

On the Obama Administration＇s Latin America Policy

Unlike his predecessor George W. Bush whose Latin America policy is characterized with strong unilateralism, President Obama, while putting Latin America higher on his foreign policy agenda, has adopted an accommodating approach to the region in the aim of improving once rigid, even tense relations with countries in the region. However, as it has not fundamentally changed its hegemonic and arrogant habit, it is difficult for the Obama administration to ＂reset＂ its relations with Latin American countries.     

Gains and Losses of Obama Diplomacy

After a year＇s perfection and evolution, the Obama Administra- tion＇s New Deal in foreign policy has taken shape. A distinctive feature of the Obama diplomacy is that to maintain the leadership status in the world, the United States should use its ＂mart power＂ to achieve its foreign policy goals through multilateral cooperation and in a soft and pragmatic way.     

The Prospects of Obama Administration＇s Foreign Policy

On January 20, 2009, Barack Obama sworn in as the first African-American President of the United States. More than two million people witnessed this unforgettable moment in American history in glacial wind. Obama took office with high expectation from the people and ushered in ＂a new era of Obama administration＂.     

＂Strategic Reassurance＂ and the Future of China-U.S. Relations

＂Strategic reassurance,＂ a new concept in Obama＇s China policy, should be fostered bilaterally by dialogue designed to highlight and reinforce the areas of common interests while addressing the sources of mistrust directly. Yet in practice it seems that U.S. strategic reassurance has contrasted all China＇s core interests. The United States and China must recognize their different social systems and asymmetrical national strength in seeking to realize strategic stability. Crisis control requires sophisticated management of both side, especially on sensitive issues like weapons sales, the Dalai Lama, and the South China Sea dispute.     

Persisting in the Strategy of ＂Keeping a Low Profile＂ and Enhancing the Awareness of ＂Trying to Do Something＂

Since reform and opening up and in recent years in particular,China＇s overall national strength has been growing noticeably. The speed of China＇s development has attracted worldwide attention. Its aggregate national strength is already among the top few in the world with a momentum of continuous growing. In 2009, under severe impacts and influence of the financial crisis,     

The Limitations of Obama's Af-Pak Strategy

The ＂Af-Pak Strategy＂ formulated by the Obama administration is characterized by ＂localization＂, ＂integration＂, ＂demilitarization＂ and ＂polygonization＂. It is a rational strategy, but it has three defects： the first is that strong pressure imposed on Pakistan may make the country more unstable and increase the unrest in surrounding areas; the second is that ＂demilitarization＂ will be unable to produce results or to meet the political needs of the Obama administration; the third is that its geopolitical dimension may weaken other countries＇ cooperation and support. China generally supports the strategy, but still has many misgivings.     

Obama＇s ＇ Strategic Patience＇ and the North Korean Nuclear Issue

How do we persuade Pyongyang to scrap its nuclear weapons program？ How do we stop it from behaving provocatively？ Obama has been struggling with these questions. In his first term, Obama adopted a policy of strategic patience. How will he deal with the country in his second term, especially after the D.P.R.K. launched its third nuclear test and heightened tensions in the Korean Peninsula remain？ What is Obama＇s motivation？     

Clues to Obama＇s Middle East Policy

Barack Obama＇s assumption of U.S. presidency proclaims the end of Bushism. There might be solution of the Middle East issue. a major favorite turn in the The Middle East issue is an important source of global threats such as rampant international terrorism, high oil prices and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and touches the most sensitive nerves of the United States. For stabilizing the situation in the Middle East and ensuring U.S. strategic interests in the region, the Obama administration will extricate itself from Iraq as early as possible to shift its main anti-terrorism battlefield to Afghanistan, possibly abandon the goal of overthrowing the current Iranian regime to have direct official engagement with it, and give more attention and make greater efforts to the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.     

Implications of a ＂Warm Spring＂ in China-Japan Relations

President Hu Jintao＇s visit to Japan is very fruitful. During the visit, leaders of the two countries built new framework for the bilateral relations and depicted the blueprint for future development. The readjustment of relations are pushed forward both by the dramatic changes in the world as well as the new developments within the two countries. However, the China-Japan relation is too complex to be improved with only one visit. There are still many things waiting to be done in future.