Lessons from Democratic Transitions: Case Studies from Asia

In an era when democratization is stalled or in retreat in many parts of the world, it is important to highlight the successful democratic experience of East and Southeast Asia in recent decades. Five consolidated democracies have emerged since the mid-1980s; only Thailand has seen some backsliding with the 2006 coup. The Asian cases provide insights into several major debates in the democratization literature, including the relative importance of culture, history, economic structure, and the optimal sequencing of political and economic reform. This article reviews these issues, with particular attention to the role of outside powers in underpinning democratization. Ultimately, the Asian cases offer evidence for optimism about the prospects of a Fourth Wave of democratization.     

Domestic Opposition and the Timing of Democratic Transitions after War

A substantial literature urges delaying elections and liberalization in postwar societies. There is little work, however, on when and how international missions that intend to delay elections and the transfer of sovereignty, such as those in Kosovo and Iraq, are able to do so. To fill this gap, I propose a theory that identifies conditions under which two forms of domestic opposition—elite objections and mass demonstrations—can at times force the international community to adopt an earlier transition plan. Following the predictions of the theory, I show that international occupations in Kosovo and Iraq were only able to implement their preferred transition plans when conditions were unfavorable for domestic opposition: when the absence of centralized authority within key groups makes an elite boycott unlikely, and when international policy does not threaten a major group's nationalist goals, making the emergence of widespread mass demonstrations doubtful. The implication for policy is that attempting to delay elections and liberalization is only advisable when domestic opposition is unlikely to be effective.     

美国全国国际事务民主学会

一、历史沿革与宗旨美国全国国际事务民主学会 (NationalDemocrat icInstituteforInternationalAffairs ,缩写为NDI ,简称全国民主学会 )是一个独立的非营利性民间组织 ,致力于在世界范围内加强和扩大民主建设。全国民主学会总部位于华盛顿 ,并在拉丁美洲、亚洲、非洲和欧洲设有办事处。全国民主学会拥有 15 0多名全职工作人员 ,而且还有一个庞大的国际专家网络。全国民主学会不仅与各国政府机构合作 ,也与当地非政府组织进行合作。全国民主学会非常重视美国民主党的政治传统 ,并深受民主党的影响。尽管如此 ,其从事的活动项目却是超党…     

China-US Young Leaders Dialogue

正The China-US Young Leaders Dialogue,initiated by China Institute of International Studies(CIIS)in 2011,is the first communication mechanism in China specifically to promote mutual understanding between the young generations of China and the United States.Distinguished young and mid-career scholars and     

Transitions through Out-of-Keeping Acts

Within a negotiation, when an act by one party is out-of-keeping with the previous moves and underlying logic of the interaction, the act and those that follow hold the potential for creating a transition to a new logic of interaction. In this paper, we investigate the presence and role of seven distinct types of transitions resulting from out-of-keeping acts across ten complex legal negotiations. The data reveal that a critical feature differentiating across the types is the abruptness/gradualness of the transition. We explore the combination of relational, informational, and procedural acts comprising the transitions and find that all three components are present across transitions, but in different proportions and orders. Understanding the role of out-of-keeping acts in negotiations facilitates a more complete picture of the microprocesses involved in the creation of critical moments in negotiations.     

试析民主援助

缘起于冷战时期的民主援助成为冷战结束后国际政治的重要现象,也日益成为以美国为首的西方国家在国际社会推进其民主文化进程的重要工具.分析民主援助的内涵、路径可以发现,民主援助的本质并不是帮助受援国巩固和发展民主,而是一种民主霸权主义,它正成为西方国家干涉别国主权和内政的外交工具.这也是形成世界范围反西方民主援助潮流的根本原因.     

从美国民主党代表大会看其政策路线

7月26日至29日,美国民主党在东部城市波士顿举行了全国代表大会,推举马萨诸塞州联邦参议员约翰·克里和北卡罗来纳州联邦参议员约翰·爱德华兹为该党今年大选的总统和副总统候选人,同时通过了题为《国家强盛,举世尊崇》的党纲。由此,民主党的政策路线更加明晰。     

我国第三代领导人与柬埔寨

1989年6月 ,江泽民同志在中共中央召开的第十三次全国代表大会上当选为中共中央总书记 ,形成了以他为核心的我国第三代领导人。按照我国第二代领导人邓小平所说的主持正义、反对霸权、政治解决柬埔寨问题的理论 ,江泽民总书记努力推动柬埔寨恢复和平 ,促成5个常任理事国就政治解决柬埔寨问题达成框架文件。他同越南新领导人共同举行高峰会谈 ,双方达成了共识。江泽民经过几年的努力 ,联合国秘书长在巴黎举行国际会议 ,就政治解决柬埔寨问题签署了最终协定。中国参与联合国对柬埔寨的监督检察 ,越南全部撤军 ,柬埔寨走向和平统一。此后柬全国…     

Bushwhacking the Democratic Peace

The invasion of Iraq has been justified, ex post , as for the purpose of promoting the democratic peace. It does not, however, appear to have been a principal goal ex ante . Most democratic peace theorists, moreover, do not endorse democratic regime change by great-power external military intervention. Success is difficult to achieve (usually at high cost), and the conditions in Iraq were not promising even had the occupation been carried out more competently. Greater success in democratization has been achieved by UN peacekeeping operations, and by various regional international organizations using a variety of peaceful measures to ensure free elections, constrain authoritarian leaders, and empower democratic forces. International organizations, notably those whose membership is largely composed of democracies, are especially likely to succeed in promoting democracy.     

Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy

This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections for civil liberties, experience a change in political leadership, or suffer an economic downturn. At the same time, the analysis does not support the claim that transitions in neighbouring countries directly improve prospects for a transition to democracy, or that economic decline and presidential systems heighten the risk of democratic breakdown. Perhaps most intriguing, our model of transitions to democracy also identifies a new twist on old stories linking economic development to democratization. For countries under authoritarian rule that have attempted democracy before, the research here indicates that development does improve prospects for another attempt, as modernization theory suggests. For countries with no democratic experience, however, affluence conveys no direct democratizing benefit and appears, if anything, to help sustain authoritarian rule.     

拉美左派领导人代表乌戈·查韦斯

委内瑞拉总统乌戈·查韦斯(Hugo Chavez)近年来因激进的反美、反新自由主义的言行在拉美政坛上声名鹊起,成为拉美左派领导人的代表,也日益受到西方国家的关注。西方舆论认为,查韦斯以顺应民主时代的方式,重新确立了“查韦斯式的专制主义”,并带动拉美地区形成左派政治气候。随着今年几个拉美国家包括墨西哥、巴西将陆续进行选     

Delegation of African Traditional Leaders Visits China

At the invitation of the Chinese Association for International Understanding (CAFIU), a 12-memberdelegation of African Traditional Leaders with Mr.Puso Gaborone, Chairman of the House of Chiefs of Botswana as the head and Mme. Berina K.Kawandami, Vice-Minister of the Ministry of Chiefsand Traditional Affairs of Zambia as the deputy headvisited China     

Delegation of African Traditional Leaders Visits China

At the invitation of the Chinese Association for International Understanding (CAFIU), a 16-member delegation of African Traditional Leaders co-headed by Kgosi Puso Gaborone, Chairman of the House of Chiefs of Botswana and Chief Madzimawe, Chairman of the House of Chiefs of Zambia, visited China from July 9 to 19, 2012.     

"民主和平"论

民主和平论(The Democratic Peace Theory)是冷战后风行西方世界的国际关系理论之一。它在维护世界和平的旗号下，将西方民主国家与所谓非民主国家对立起来，强调东西方对抗的两极格局，进而成为某些西方大国外交政策的理论依据。     

民主阿拉伯民族主义探析

民主阿拉伯民族主义是多元化阿拉伯民族主义阶段的一个重要流派。它的出现归因于市民社会的势力逐渐扩大、导引民族主义的理念由主权变为民主等因素。其主要主张包括:坚持恢复市民社会自治、强调民主的价值和重要性、主张作为文化实体而非政治实体的阿拉伯统一。民主阿拉伯民族主义的产生和发展,既有重要的现实意义,也有一定的理论价值。它促进了阿拉伯世界的民主化进程,发展了现代阿拉伯民族主义,对维护阿拉伯民族团结有积极作用。     

Constitutional Design and Democratic Performance

The article examines the relationship between constitutional design and democratic performance. To do so, it draws on a new data set, containing measures of eight core values of liberal democratic government (accountability, representation, constraint, participation, political rights, civil rights, property rights, minority rights) for 40 country cases over 29 years. It uses pooled cross section time-series regressions to explore the effects of executive-legislative relations, electoral rules and federal-unitary government, while controlling for the contextual conditions of economic wealth, political culture, and the longevity of democratic government itself. The article reviews previous attempts to explore the relationship in order to sharpen the definition of democratic performance, explore key aspects of the research design, and compare the statistical results with the present state of our knowledge. Overall the results tend to support the superior performance of parliamentary over presidential systems, and, in lesser degree, of unitary over federal systems. The performance profiles of proportional representation and plurality electoral systems, on the other hand, appear as distinct but quite evenly matched. But reasons are given for exercising some care with causal inferences, and for applying the results to closer-focus comparative institutional analysis.