Kuomintang Agonistes: Party Politics in the Wake of Taiwan's 2016 Elections

Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) lost badly in the 2016 elections. The KMT had not garnered favorable public opinion under the previous president, Ma Ying-jeou. Nor were Ma and his party seen as promoting a vision to put Taiwan first. Consequently, they were defeated soundly by the Democratic Progressive Party. This article addresses how the parties differ historically and why it matters what direction Taiwan's leadership takes in the future.     

中美关系中的台湾问题:变化与影响

进入21世纪后,美国在插手、干涉台湾问题的同时,保持台海相对和平也已成为美国对华战略的重要内涵之一.这意味着中美在台湾问题上的冲突在一定程度上有所缓解.中美关系中的台湾问题将可能进入一个更为复杂,而冲突却有所缓解的新阶段.但由于美国不可能停止插手、干涉台湾问题,台湾问题将继续严重干扰中美关系.不过,中美双方越来越明确地认识到,保持中美关系相对稳定,发展中美更广泛的合作,符合双方在21世纪初期和更长时期的利益.这决定中美关系持续改善、发展的大趋势不会改变.     

在拉美所"2006年拉美大选的影响与拉美左派的发展" 研讨会上的讲话

2007年1月11日,“2006年拉美国家大选及其政治走向”课题结项暨拉美大选的影响与左派发展问题研讨会在拉美所召开。中国社会科学院副院长李慎民与会并发表主旨演讲,深刻分析了当前的世界格局和政治走向,拉美左派的发展对该地区形势的影响。现全文发表如下。     

Taiwan's Presidential and Legislative Elections

Taiwan's newly-elected president, Ma Ying-jeou, is determined to relax the tension that has gripped the Taiwan Strait for more than a decade. His positions during the election campaign were calculated to reassure both the Beijing government and the Taiwanese people. On the one hand, he made it clear that he would remove barriers to improved relations and reach out to the Chinese leadership. At the same time, he was equally clear in his commitment to protecting Taiwan's interests. Ma's positions strike a balance between preserving Taiwan's de facto political independence and moving toward a more constructive relationship with the mainland. This approach enjoys widespread popular support in Taiwan. Still, the devil is in the details, and implementing Ma's ideas will require cooperation from Beijing, and from other political actors within Taiwan itself.     

中期选举与未来美国政策走向

2006年的美国中期选举被看成美国选民对共和党政府伊拉克政策的公决,民主党的胜利被认为是对布什政府现行政策的否定,因此,布什政府包括伊拉克政策的内外政策将面临调整。就中美关系而言,选举结果影响有限,不至于改变中美关系大局。不过,这次选举虽然改变了美国政局和某些政策走向,但美国主流政治中间偏保守的性质并没有改变。     

The 2000 General Elections and Presidential Run-off in Ghana: An Overview

The December 2000 general elections and presidential run-off in Ghana were arguably the most important since independence in 1957 and constituted a significant landmark in Ghana's democratic development. This article explains the reasons why, and offers a detailed account of the election campaign, an assessment of the quality of the electoral process and an analysis of the results. The opposition victory is explained in terms of several key factors, before concluding with regard to the positive implications for the consolidation of democracy in Ghana in the future.     

The 2009 Elections and Iran's Changing Political Landscape

Iran's June 2009 elections set into motion four processes that are central to the operations of the Islamic Republic regime. They include: the growing gap between large sections of Iranian society from the Islamic Republican state; the steady militarization of the political system; the unprecedented degree to which the Supreme Leader has become an active partisan in the increasingly bitter political infighting among regime insiders, and—most significantly—the violent disruption of an emerging set of “rules of the game,” that previously served as a safety check against excessive factional infighting. This last consequence of the election and its aftermath is likely to leave its most enduring imprint on the State. Specifically, the elections have taken Iran from manageable factionalism to the brink of complete political paralysis. As such, given the untenability of the State's present predicament, far-reaching changes are almost certain to come.     

2006年中期选举对美国外交内政的影响

由于伊拉克问题的独特影响,美国2006年中期选举可谓是一次外交决定内政的选举。民主党的全胜使得这次选举成为1994年以来最重要的一次中期选举,它不仅决定了美国国会新的政党分野与权力布局,而且对美国的外交内政都产生了较大影响。外交方面,在可预见的一段时间内,国会的外交政策理念将呈现右倾趋势;伊拉克政策可能会出现一定程度的微调,但不会出现戏剧性的剧变;对华政策也可能出现一定的波动。内政方面,其直接影响主要体现在国内经济政策、非法移民政策与国内社会政治思潮等方面。     

宪政民主下的埃及大选及其影响

举世瞩目的埃及大选尘埃落定。从历史角度看,20世纪是埃及宪政民主实践的重要历史时期。1952年以来,经过50多年的发展,埃及形成了富有特色的政治体制,实现了国家政治的稳定运行。最近十几年来,特别是伊拉克战争结束以来,美国出于改造中东的战略,直接施压,要求埃及进行政治改革,再加上美国“大中东倡议”的影响和埃及国内反对派的壮大,造成了埃及2005年宪法第七十六条修正案出台。修正案以及随后的埃及大选表明:埃及是成熟、自信的中东大国;埃及人民渴求政治稳定,并能处理好自己的事务;从短期看,大选的象征意义大于实际意义;但从长期看,它是埃及政治制度现代化新的里程碑,埃及政治民主化进程已是离弦之箭。     

Elections and political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article examines attempts to use electoral politics to promote substantive political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since 1990 elections have been a key part of virtually all negotiated agreements to end civil wars. The utility of democracy for building peace is often asserted but rarely backed with long-term commitment and resources on the ground. Bosnia since 1996 is a rare exception. There, international actors sought not only to establish a democratic political system but to use electoral democracy as a tool with which to transform the nature of politics in Bosnia in short order. This article focuses on efforts to shape the development of political parties and the party system, assesses the degree to which it has succeeded and examines the broader implications of Bosnia's experience for other state-building efforts of its kind.     

Democracy and Human Rights in the Mexican States: Elections or Social Capital?

Why does the relationship between a government and its citizens deteriorate to violence? Large-N cross-national quantitative analyses of human rights violations have found an inverse relationship between democracy and violations. These analyses, however, have not been able to address the central finding of an influential subnational analysis of democracy that stresses the importance of a single dimension of democracy, social capital. In this article we combine these two streams of research with fresh data from the Mexican states to investigate how and why democracy inhibits violations. Theoretically, we connect a policy interest in protecting human rights to politicians' office-seeking goals and to the level of social capital. Empirically, our data allow us to disentangle two principal components of democracy, elections and social capital, and include important control variables, notably ethnic diversity, which have been largely left out of the cross-national analyses. Our central finding is that the electoral components rather than social capital produce important consequences for the protection of citizens' human rights.     

缅甸:2016年回顾与2017年展望

2016年民盟组成了缅甸新政府,推出"百日计划",召开21世纪彬龙会议,颁布新经济政策,加强对公职人员监督,积极拓展外交空间,取得了一定的成效.但2016年年底缅北爆发了民地武联军与政府军的冲突,西部若开邦也遭遇了恐怖袭击,对整个地区安全形势造成了极大影响,新政府仍然面临着民族和解与教派冲突等关键问题的挑战.     

文莱:2015年回顾与2016年展望

综观2015年,文莱继续保持多年来的发展格局,政治社会保持稳定;外交继续按照既定的对外政策进行对外活动;在经济方面,由于受到国际油价一再下跌的影响,全年经济出现向下滑行的趋势.展望2016年,文莱仍然继续保持2015年格局,如果国际油价出现继续下跌的趋势,文莱经济难以出现增长趋势.     

马来西亚:2015年回顾与2016年展望

2015年,马来西亚经历了政治和经济的风暴,政局因贪腐案引发动荡,纳吉布总理领导的政府支撑住了政局;经济面临国内外因素的巨大压力,但仍获得5％的增长;外交上,作为东盟轮值主席国,主办了东盟和地区合作系列会议.2016年,马来西亚面对的挑战仍然很大.     

印度尼西亚:2016年回顾与2017年展望

稳定与发展仍是2016年印度尼西亚形势的关键词.印度尼西亚总统佐科获得国会更多党派支持,执政环境进一步好转,政绩获好评.但政治斗争依然激烈,反钟万学游行成为印度尼西亚政治与社会进入新敏感期的标志性事件.经济上,主要指标基本符合预期,标志着该国经济正在进入良性恢复轨道.外交方面,印度尼西亚以东盟为基石积极参与地区和国际事务,维护主权和海外侨民利益力度更大,与大国关系总体平衡发展.     

柬埔寨:2016年回顾与2017年展望

2016年的柬埔寨,虽然国内政治斗争激烈,但经济发展平稳,外交工作卓有成效.2017年是柬埔寨大选的关键年,民心争夺战将成为该年度的重头戏.