Why did We Get the End of the Cold War Wrong?

In many important ways the history of modern international relations (IR) begins at the point when the international order collapses in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Indeed, the withering of communism in Central and Eastern Europe followed by the break–up of the USSR two years later, posed what many in the field saw then (and continue to regard now) as a series of problems to which the hitherto dominant paradigm in IR—realism—had no ready or easy answers. This article neither seeks to defend nor criticize realism. Rather it shifts the debate about the end of the cold war—and why most experts failed to anticipate it—away from the field of IR to the more specific study undertaken in the West of the Soviet system. It goes on to argue that the source of so much academic embarrassment may be better explained not through a rehearsal of realism's supposed flaws as an international theory, but rather through a detailed examination of the different ways that different writers understood, or more precisely failed to understand, the operation of the Soviet system itself. The conclusion reached is that few analysts could have predicted what happened between 1989 and 1991. In fact, as the article seeks to show, their often complicated and diverse theories about the USSR as the living alternative to market capitalism led most of them (with one or two notable exceptions) to the conclusion that whatever problems faced the Soviet Union as a power in the 1980s, the system as such was likely to endure.     

China-Taiwan Relations Through the Lens of the Interaction Between China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation

China-Taiwan Relations have become significantly less confrontational since 2008. One of the indicators demonstrating the improvement of their relations is the resumption of the contact between China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) in 2008 after 9 years of no formal interaction. The purpose of this paper is to explore China-Taiwan relations in the period from 1990 to 2008 by examining the interaction between the aforementioned two organizations which were founded in 1991. By analyzing the relevant official announcements and statements made by China and Taiwan in the period from 1990 to 2008, this paper finds that China became more hostile toward Taiwan and therefore its ARATS in turn was unwilling to negotiate with Taiwan’s SEF when it perceived that the Taiwanese government was pushing for Taiwan’s independence. By contrast, when it perceived that the Taiwanese government was more compromising on the issue of Taiwan’s independence, it became relatively conciliatory and its ARATS in turn was more willing to interact with Taiwan’s SEF.     

From Rural Poverty to Urban Deprivation? The Plight of Chinese Rural-Urban Migrants Through the Lens of Last Train Home

China??s impressive growth has been accompanied by huge rural-urban divide and social sacrifice of many including rural-urban migrants. Reflecting on the documentary Last Train Home (2009) by Lixin Fan, this paper identifies and examines the life of rural-urban migrants in China in terms of poverty-reduction, child-care, education and equal opportunities for a better life. By comparing the seemingly difficult and tragic life of the Zhang family against statistical facts, it shows that their suffering and struggles are common to most migrants. In essence, by creating an interactive dialogue between the film and the economic reality in China, this paper highlights the severe constraints on the Chinese peasantry and discusses the implications of limited choices and social injustice towards rural-urban migrants. It argues that the inequality in opportunities and the lack of social care for migrants has created huge social cleavage that not only reduces social welfare but may also impede further development.     

Crisis or Zemblanity? Viewing the ‘Migration Crisis’ through a Greek Lens

This intervention traces how Europe is being (re-)produced through ‘crises’ on three scales. Firstly, at the level of national territory, looking at the crisis-ridden Greek state. Secondly, through everyday border practices on the island of Lesbos and, finally, in the Mediterranean that acts as Europe’s primary locus for its aggregate (and often experimental) bordering practices.     

‘Heart-Beguiling Araby’ on the Frontier of Empire: Early Anglo-Arab Relations in Transjordan

In 1920 the British government of Palestine sent six officers to establish a British presence in Transjordan. Lacking military and financial support, they could not possibly control a country populated by more than 200,000 tribespeople, many of them members of powerful tribal confederacies. The key to explaining why the British chose this unorthodox way to takeover a new territory lies in the special attitude towards Arabia entertained by the British following World War One. British policy derived from an alleged cultural affinity between the British and the ‘Bedouin’, coupled with a colonial tradition of attributing British administrators with a ‘natural’ ability to rule over natives. These two myths gave the British an inflated belief in their ability to rule local society. Drawing on official reports, private papers and local accounts, this article shows that the British grossly misunderstood local conditions and could not deal with the tribal communities that frustrated their attempt to assert British influence.     

Why Leipzig? ‘Exit’ and ‘voice’ in the East German revolution

Albert Hirschman's exit‐voice scheme provides a useful starting point for making sense of the East German revolution. Following Hirschman, it is argued that the conjunction of emigration and protest was key to the mass upheaval of 1989. Going beyond Hirschman, however, ‘exit’ is seen as relevant not only as the cumulative effect of individual emigration, but also as a political force in its own right. Different constellations between voice and exit groups then help to explain why the revolutionary upheaval originated not in East Berlin, but in Leipzig.     

Do Citizens Judge Health Experts Through a Partisan Lens? Evidence from a Factorial Survey Experiment

Scholars have claimed that right-wing citizens are more skeptical about experts than left-wing citizens. This article, however, argues that depending on their party affiliation, citizens prefer certain kinds of expertise over others. I confronted Swiss adults (N = 2,465) with individual risk advice on either flu vaccination or colorectal cancer screening. The quote varied regarding the expert providing the advice (e.g., academic, administration, or corporation) and the degree of policy advocacy. The citizens then assessed the experts' credibility and their own behavioral intention (e.g., get a flu shot). Citizens across the political spectrum are more likely to positively evaluate experts who represent institutions aligned with their beliefs. Moreover, right-wing citizens are more skeptical about experts who advocate for specific policies than their left-wing counterparts. This study underscores the need for a better understanding of how partisanship affects expert perceptions to manage health policy problems and other science-based issues.     

Who is in the ‘‘We’’? Interrogating the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and Youth Political Participation

Most analyses of the African Union (AU) have focused on the politics of the state and the presidents. There are very few analyses that have focused on aspects such as youth development. The point of departure for this article therefore, is youth development. I argue that although the youth were always part of important historical developments in Africa, they remain on the periphery. In recent times, particularly since the transformation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) into the AU in the 2000s, the youth development agenda has begun to receive the attention at policy level. In 2015 the AU, through Agenda 2063 went a step further by including youth development into mainstream continental policy frameworks. While we welcome all these developments it has emerged that the continent remains hesitant in the area of youth development. Where the AU and its member states have adopted the discourse of youth inclusion—in cases where youth political participation is often limited, such efforts are not met with fitting institutional and practical policy arrangements. The article posits that the African elite is in for a rude awakening as we have witnessed—since 2011—given the discovery by the African youth of new methods of political participation in post-colonial Africa. The article advocates for the adoption of the African community outlook to youth state policy, argues for the youth to be linked to the project of economic freedom, and implores the African elite to embark on the decolonial project to resolve the bearing coloniality of being, power and knowledge.     

‘We Could be Rich’: Unemployment,Roadblocks and the Rhythms of Hydrocarbon Work among the Guaraní of the Argentine Chaco

In the Argentine Chaco, indigenous Guaraní lives are deeply entangled with the oil and gas industry. In response to the hydrocarbon sector's shifting dynamics, unemployed Guaraní have found innovative ways to make claims and mobilise for temporary employment. This article emphasises the perspectives of these mobilised populations and describes the political difficulties that precarious labour forces confront. It also draws attention to the temporalities of extraction and to the accompanying rhythms of flexible employment. In doing so, it extends the concept of precarity to highlight continuities between the impermanence of employment and the instability of mobilisation.     

‘We Looked after People Better when We Were Informal’: The ‘Quasi-Formalisation’ of Montevideo's Waste-Pickers

Drawing on participatory research, this article explores the state formalisation of Uruguayan clasificadores (waste-pickers). It goes beyond the informal/formal binary, instead proposing the concepts of ‘para-formality’ to describe economic activity that exists in parallel to regulated and taxed spheres, and ‘quasi-formality’ to describe processes of formalisation that are supported by underlying informal practices. When unregulated, clasificadores enjoyed parallel services in health, finance and social security, implying that benefits of ‘formalisation’ must be explored ethnographically rather than assumed. The persistence of ‘quasi-formal’ activity within formalised recycling plants complicates simple narratives of informal to formal transitions and suggests that the concept can be useful for the study of labour policies in Latin America and beyond.     

German E-Campaigning and the Emergence of a ‘Digital Voter’? An Analysis of the Users of the Wahl-O-Mat

Within the e-campaigning activities of political actors in Germany, the Wahl-O-Mat has emerged as a popular ‘non-party’ online tool which has been used by millions of voters before elections in Germany. An analysis of the users can provide information about the characteristics of people resorting to this and other types of online pre-election tools. Based on an application-specific approach, hypotheses about the users are developed in light of the uses and gratification theory, taking into consideration normative expectations associated with the rise of the Internet. Whether the Wahl-O-Mat helps fulfilling these expectations is analysed by drawing (1) on data generated by an online exit survey of the Wahl-O-Mat users and (2) on datasets of the German Longitudinal Election Study 2009. The findings show that users of the Wahl-O-Mat largely belong to a group of young and politically interested voters who resort primarily to the Internet to collect political information.     

‘Conflict and confrontation’: A comparison of the effect of trade embargoes on executive‐legislative relations in the USA during the Truman and Reagan years

This article examines the conflict between the American Congress and Presidency in US trade embargo policy during the Truman and Reagan years. After reviewing two cases of legislative‐executive confrontation over trade embargoes against the Soviet Union in the late‐1940s and early‐1950s and South Africa in the 1980s, it concludes that Congress has been successful in modifying presidential policy‐making that it believes does not serve the national interest. This is due to its powerful position in the American political process as the initiator of legislation. Its law making powers have allowed it to review executive foreign policy decisions forcing the Presidency to change its approach to particular policy concerns.     

Transforming the Unbound Elephant to the Lovable Asian Hulk: Why is Modi Leveraging India’s Soft Power?

Prime Minister Modi’s administration has renewed emphasis on highlighting India’s soft power resources such as yoga, democratic values, spirituality, etc. Modi has also launched an aggressive public relations and marketing campaign to boost India’s economic growth. This article examines the role and importance of soft power resources in Modi’s foreign policy. The author argues that Modi is applying a two-pronged strategy of simultaneously adopting an aggressive sales pitch to boost India’s economic growth and leveraging India’s soft power to mitigate potential threats emanating from the country’s growing hard power. While soft power resources generally supplement a state’s hard power towards achieving foreign policy goals, Modi is using India’s soft power to draw attention away from the state’s rising military power. While India is enhancing its existing military power, Modi is engaging India’s neighbours and other great powers to ensure that its rise is intended to be peaceful, non-threatening and entirely benevolent. This is in stark contrast to how Asian states as well as the world perceive China’s rise. This article also questions the effectiveness of this strategy and predicts that this strategy should bode well for India in maintaining its international reputation and relationships.     

‘Schloss Neuwahnstein’? Why the Länder continue to strengthen their representations in Brussels

The establishment of representative offices in Brussels marked the start a qualitative new step in the engagement of the German Länder in European Union (EU) policy. Despite a contested birth, more than 20 years' operation in Brussels have seen these offices become full elements of the sponsoring Länder administrations. This article argues that in both functional and operational terms, the Brussels Länder offices have developed over time to approximate the role played by their federal level counterparts, the Länder representations in Berlin. Enhanced investment by the Länder in their EU presence underscores the increasing relevance of EU issues for the exercise of their domestic policy responsibilities. However, the Länder offices in Brussels remain disputed entities, as federal and Länder government views of their mission and appropriate engagement differ sharply. Thus, while direct engagement in Brussels has become the norm for the Länder administrations, tensions over access to the EU sphere continue to mark Bund-Länder relations in Brussels – more that ten years after a legal solution was established. The article concludes by considering the broader implications of this situation.     

‘Unarmed’ We Intervene,Unnoticed We Remain: The Deviant Case of ‘February 28th Coup’ in Turkey

When a military staged an intervention during the Cold War, students of civil-military relations could quite easily tell if it was a coup d’état. This no longer seems to be the case. The reason may be the regnant understanding of coup d’état as a violent (bloody), swift, and extralegal/extra-constitutional seizure of power by first and foremost military officers or members of state apparatus after a long time of secret planning. This article takes stock of political complexities surrounding coups in our times by studying the nationally and internationally neglected case of February 28^th (1997) coup process in Turkey as a ‘deviant case’, based on newly-revealed military documents as primary sources and several previously unstudied memoirs by army officers of the period. It argues that the February 28^th coup was deliberately stretched over a long process, it was violent but not bloody, was staged almost openly through ‘theoretically constitutional political operations’ and psychological warfare against the elected government. Several select ‘civilian’ groups from the media, judiciary, trade unions, and non-governmental organisations were happily enlisted by the military as active participants in the coup caravan and without them as unique and pioneering a coup as the February 28^th could not be executed.