Predictable Policing: Measuring the Crime Control Benefits of Hotspots Policing at Bus Stops

Objectives

A fairly robust body of evidence suggests that hotspots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy. In this paper, we present contradictory evidence of a backfiring effect.

Methods

In a randomized controlled trial, aimed at reducing crime and disorder, London’s ‘hottest’ 102 bus-stops were targeted. Double patrol teams of Metropolitan Police Service uniformed officers visited the stops three times per shift (12:00–20:00), 5-times per week, for a duration of 15 min, over a 6 month period. Crucially, officers arrived and departed the bus stop on a bus, with significantly less time spent outside the bus stop setting. Outcomes were measured in terms of victim-generated crimes reported to the police and bus driver incident reports (DIRs), within targeted and catchment areas. We used adjusted Poisson-regression models to compare differences in pre- and post-treatment measures of outcomes and estimated-marginal-means to illustrate the treatment effect.

Results

DIRs went down significantly by 37 % (p = 0.07) in the near vicinity of the bus stops (50 m), by 40 % in the 100 m catchment area (p = 0.04) and marginally and non-significantly in the farthest catchment (10 %; p = 0.66), compared to control conditions. However, victim-generated crimes—the primary outcome measured in previous experiments—increased by 25 % (p = 0.10) in the near vicinity, by 23 % (p = 0.08) and 11 % (p ≤ 0.001) within the 100–150 m catchment areas, respectively.

Conclusions

These findings illustrate the role of bounded-rationality in everyday policing: reductions in crime are predicated on an elevated perceived risk-of-apprehension. Previous studies focused on clusters of addresses or public facilities, with police moving freely and unpredictably within the boundaries of the hotspot, but the patrol areas of officers in this experiment were limited to bus stops so offenders could anticipate their movements. Hotspots policing therefore backfires when offenders can systematically and accurately predict the temporal and spatial pattern of long-term targeting at a single location.

     

Against the Managerial State: Preventive Policing as Non-Legal Governance

Law and Philosophy - Since at least the 1980s, police departments in the United States have embraced a set of practices that aim, not to enable the prosecution of past criminal activity, but to...     

The Further Development of Democracy in Soviet State Administration

Soviet agencies of state administration are carrying on a great deal of organizational and creative activity toward resolving problems involved in administrative-political, economic, socio-cultural and military construction. These agencies consist of representatives of the working population, serve its interests and are under its control. Despite this, many opportunities exist for greater democracy in their operations. In the activities of certain links in the administrative apparatus, cases of deviation from Leninist principles are still encountered: replacement of collegial solution of problems by one-man decision; violations of legality; ignoring of public opinion; swelling of paid staffs, etc. These deviations do not define the nature of the Soviet state apparatus, but one cannot make peace with them. They must be exposed and eliminated more rapidly.     

Queering State Crime Theory: The State,Civil Society and Marginalization

This article argues that criminology desperately needs to look at the ways in which states marginalize and persecute lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans* and queer (LGBTQ) identities. It critically examines the ways in which states reproduce hegemonic dictates that privilege those who adhere to gendered heterosexual norms over all others. This article further considers how the application of state crime theories, in particular Michalowski’s (State crime in the global age, pp. 13–30, Devon, Willan, 2010) tripartite framework, might further foreground the responsibility of the state in protecting LGBTQ identities. Examples of how this framework could be applied are given, with the case study of criminalization of same sex relations being focused on in depth. The article concludes by positing four key points to be considered in any analysis that attempts to critique the role of the state in the perpetuation of heterosexual hegemony.     

Disruption is Not Permitted: The Policing and Social Control of Occupy Oakland

Negotiated management—various forms of communication, collaboration and cooperation between police and protest organizers, often taking the form of protest permits—has been mainly theorized as a means to mitigate police violence while respecting protesters’ 1st Amendment rights. A few theorists have problematized this view, suggesting that negotiated management is a form of social control that puts various restrictions on dissent. Drawing from my research on Occupy Oakland, I build upon these critiques to illustrate how negotiated management was used as a tool of repression in two key ways, and how newer forms of repression (strategic incapacitation) are still enmeshed in its logic. First, by criminalizing legal activity among protesters, through the use of a permit, who were then subjected to police repression. Second, I show how negotiated management as a normative structure of protest was used as a form of repression, even when communication and cooperation with police were clearly rejected by the movement. I illustrate how the refusal of negotiated management was used to discredit the movement and subject it to physical repression. Rather than seeing negotiated management as an alternative to police repression and strategic incapacitation, I argue that they are two sides of the same policing project, the primary aim of which is to prevent disruptive protest.     

Citizen Orientations Toward State and Non-State Policing*

In contemporary Western societies, policing has become associated with the state although this practice is of recent origin and by no means universal. Even within post-industrial states, non-state forms of policing exist and may be a rediscovered source of social control. A survey of subway riders in New York City provides information about citizen dispositions toward policing by state and non-state sources. It was found that respondents are substantially more supportive of a self designated citizen anti-crime organization, the Guardian Angels, than they are of the New York City Transit Police although a sizable number of respondents support both sources of policing. Differential assessment is related to perception of crime trends, the degrees to which respondents believe bystanders will intervene on their behalf in the event of a crime, fear of victimization and the reported likelihood that respondents will intervene. Such findings are useful in addressing general theoretical issues respecting the basis for support of state and non-state policing and their relative role in social control.     

Evolution of the Government–Business Relationship and Economic Performance in the Former Soviet States – Order State, Rescue State, Punish State

The objective of this paper is to elucidate the relationship between the reform process and economic performance in the states of the former Soviet Union (FSU). There were two strategies used by the former Soviet states to cope with the collapse of the USSR. Some of the FSU countries, in an effort to overcome the institutional vacuum caused by the disintegration of the federal economy, centralized their government authority to manage industry. Others decentralized power in an attempt to regain economic independence for domestic enterprises. To evaluate the essential differences and progress gaps among transition strategies, FSU countries can be divided into three groups, which reflect variations in institutional control of the government-business relationships. The differences in economic performance in FSU countries can be explained to some extent by examining the diversity of institutional patterns that characterize each category. The results of various empirical analyses positively support the validity of such an analytical framework. In this sense, this paper presents a new viewpoint on the transition process in FSU countries that may complement that shown in existing literature.     

Ideology and Politics in Soviet Society

A few days ago the former leader of the Lithuanian Communists, A. Brazauskas, became president of Lithuania, the republic where democratic transformations first began in the old USSR. The circle has been closed, as it were. The Party's old guard in Russia is celebrating, counting the days until it can "begin to roll" again in Moscow. The Communist Party has risen again from the ashes. On the television screens, the "Gekachepists" [members of the State Committee for the State of Emergency] are being hailed as good angels. Rumors of their impending demise—dear Tat'iana Ivanovna Koriagina, indeed you defended them so zealously—have turned out to be greatly exaggerated. There they are, all having grown a little younger, with shining eyes. …     

警事治理:国家警事社会化的新定义

治理理论对国家与市民社会关系的认识思路是国家和市民社会相互"型塑"达致社会公共事务管理的"善治"。在国内外警务战略模式变革中成为潮流的"国家警事社会化"战略,是指在警察机关专业警务活动的同时,动员社会组织和社区公众共同参与防控违法犯罪、维护社会治安秩序活动的过程。显然,"国家警事社会化"寻求警察与社会组织及社区公众的互动合作基础上公共安全管理的改善。因为警察与国家的对应、社会组织及公众正是市民社会的具象,所以可以用治理理论作为分析"国家警事社会化"的框架,并将其定义为"警事治理"。     

A Comparative Perspective of Community Policing in Taiwan and Washington State

This study explores the attitudes and behaviors of Taiwanese police officers regarding community oriented policing (COP) by comparing their attitudes and behaviors with those of officers in Washington State. Data used in the study were collected from 375 Taiwanese line officers assigned to the city of Tainan and 167 American line officers from various police and sheriffs’ departments in Washington State. The study finds that (1) Taiwanese and American officers hold similar opinions of COP’s potential to reduce crime; (2) both groups are similarly involved in implementing the various strategies of COP; yet (3) American officers are more involved in formulating (planning/devising) COP strategies; and (4) are more receptive to citizen involvement in COP; while (5) Taiwanese officers are more receptive to civilian oversight, and (6) are more amenable to applying COP outcomes for evaluative purposes than are their American counterparts. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed.

Policing: The patrol sergeants’ perspective

Implementing community policing is a complex and difficult task for police departments. Patrol sergeants are essential in accomplishing any organizational change and so their observations should be used to modify and finetune community policing efforts. A group of twenty patrol sergeants were interviewed regarding the change strategies which helped or hurt implementation of community policing. Several statistical analyses are discussed with age being the only factor which was significantly related to supervisor’s attitudes toward community policing.     

Improving the Administrative-Territorial Structure of the Soviet State

In conjunction with the drafting of the new Constitution of the USSR, there is much of theoretical and practical value to be gained from discussion of the problem of further improvement of the administrative-territorial structure of the Soviet State and elaboration of specific proposals to establish it in law. The importance and complexity of these questions demand generalization of historical data on the territorial organization of the Soviet State analysis of the present administrative structure of the union republics and discovery of the laws governing the process under study.