Positivism and its limitations for strategic intelligence: a non-constructivist info-gap critique

Knowledge underlies rational choice between options. Predictive optimization is the prioritization of options according to their predicted outcomes based on available knowledge. The epistemological justification of predictive optimization is based on positivism, which asserts that facts and laws about the world exist and are discoverable. However, knowledge of human affairs in strategic adversarial interactions is often severely limited and erroneous: residual uncertainty is often vast. This results especially from deception and innovation by the adversary which introduce deep Knightian uncertainty. Consequently, predictive optimization is unreliable: outcomes may differ substantially from predictions. An alternative strategy for prioritization of options is info-gap robust satisficing: achieve critical goals (that are adequate but perhaps suboptimal) over a wide range of deviation of reality from current knowledge. The epistemological justification of robust satisficing is based on extending positivism to acknowledge and manage the unknown. Prioritization of options by robust satisficing manages both the limitations of knowledge and the need for achieving critical goals. This critique of positivism is not constructivist. Rather, we extend positivism to account for highly deficient knowledge. We present several examples and conclude by discussing the relation between inductive, abductive and deductive inference.     

Re-reading the new regionalism: A sympathetic critique

This paper provides a sympathetic critique of the new regionalism—currently one of the leading debates taking place in English-speaking human geography. By unpacking the new regionalism from its dual origins in economic geography and political science, the paper engages with some of its inherent lines of weakness by: developing a critique arguing that it is inappropriate on the part of the new regionalism to neglect the role of the state in the resurgence of regions in the reconstituted capitalist space economy; exploring the accusation that the new regionalism has become enmeshed in multifaceted scalar politics and associated tangled policy hierarchies; and, arguing that, through policy-transfer programmes, path- dependency, social capital and soft institutionalism, the new regionalism has been constructed on inadequate foundations. Finally, in developing this sympathetic theoretical and methodological critique towards the new regionalism, this paper speculates on how new regionalists should actually go about ‘doing’ regional regulation.     

高校文学课多媒体运用的局限性探讨

多媒体课件在高校教学得到普遍认可并成为主要的教学辅助手段，但无论是多媒体课件自身的辅助作用，还是文学作为艺术的一个门类，文学课使用多媒体课件都有明显的局限性。主要包括以信息替代知识，背离文学课程的基本教学目标；视觉的直观满足，违反了艺术教育和鉴赏的“不到顶点”原则；情感道德的隐退，弱化了文学课教书育入的基本功能。     

Schumpeter's critique of Marx: A reappraisal

Abstract. The paper provides an account of Marx's position of Schumpeter's three categories: capitalism, socialism and democracy. Marx's conception of capitalism is established as more wide-ranging than sometimes thought, covering any form of society where commodities predominate, and implying a polarized class structure independent of considerations of manual or lowly labour. It is not therefore essentially a political conception, nor does its application turn on the question of private ownership. Socialism, for Marx, involves the abolition of commodities and therefore of money and the wages system. Accordingly, his conception of socialism is not one of state ownership or nationalization, as Schumpeter claims. His commitment to democracy arises from the nature of socialist society and sets him apart from vanguardist political theory. It is therefore more deeply-rooted than Schumpeter suggests.     

The ruthless Fed: A critique of the AST hypothesis

This paper examines the hypothesis that the Great Contraction was the result of rational rent-seeking by members of the Federal Reserve System. In contrast to the AST hypothesis, evidence on the share prices of member banks that survived the contraction suggests that the owners of these banks suffered an absolute decline in real wealth and a decline relative to a broad spectrum of other investment alternatives. Furthermore, monetary surprises had no statistically discernible effect on the share prices of these banks. This evidence conflicts with the notion that rational rent-seeking would lead the owners of member banks and their bureaucratic conspirators in the Federal Reserve System to unleash a policy with the goal of contracting the money supply by 35 percent.     

Learning from the Danish case: A comment on Palle Svensson's critique of the Franklin thesis

Abstract. Palle Svensson in this issue of EJPR has objected to the characterisation of Danish voters made by Franklin and others who, in various publications, expounded the thesis that on issues of low salience, referendum votes tend to follow party lines. Svensson finds evidence that the Maastricht Treaty was not an issue of low salience to Danish voters in the ratification referendums conducted there, and gives other details of the evolution of public opinion regarding Europe that clarify the circumstances in which our thesis should apply. In the light of his arguments, this Comment presents a more nuanced version of the thesis that learns from the Danish case, and should be of greater utility than our earlier version in helping to interpret the role of government standing in referendum outcomes.     

Linking decentralization and centralization: A critique of the new development administration

This article examines the orientation of what is here called the ‘New Development Administration’ (NDA), as put forth by Esman (1988). It does so using political elasticity theory. The article is sympathetic to the NDA's emphasis upon decentralization, community development, deregulation, privatization, minimal government, popular participation and flexible forms of foreign aid. However, it argues that these require an administrative framework to be effective, including strong leadership, effective bureaucracies, the cooperation of beneficiaries and the ability to shift from soft to hard forms of power. While the importance of a bureaucratic reorientation is generally recognized, NDA supporters seem unclear about the requisites needed. Without adequate supervision and control, NDA objectives cannot be achieved.     

Sites and services schemes in Dacca: A critique

This paper presents a critical analysis of two sites and services projects in Dacca, in the light of previous studies of low income housing. The analysis demonstrates that resource limitation is not the most important factor preventing resolution of the low-income housing problem, that there is a perverse use of resources which makes the situation worse, and that this use continues because it is in the pecuniary interest of the dominant interest group. The conclusions drawn are far from optimistic: (a) without radical changes in the main direction of resource allocation, there exists little or no possibility for an improvement in the living conditions of poor families; and, (b) the provision of housing for the lowest income group is more a question of political will and social engineering than building technology.     

Interpretive policy inquiry: A response to the limitations of the received view

This paper seeks to contribute to the growing body of literature on interpretive policy inquiry. As such, its specific focus is the presentation of the interpretive approach as a corrective for the shortcomings inherent in the standard view. Following an outline of the problems facing the received view, a systematic, philosophically grounded, statement of the interpretive position is developed. Thereafter, the tangible positive consequences for policy making of this approach are further discussed. The paper concludes with some reflections on the relationship between the positivistic and interpretive paradigms.     

Markets and democracy: A critique of Charles E. Lindblom

Abstract

Using a 1988 Home Box Office (HBO) series as a point of departure this paper examines the state of mass‐mediated politics. Examples from Tanner ‘88 reveal unmistakable signs of contemporary electoral campaigns ‐ stage management, monitored public opinion, and mythinformation. Pseudo‐events replace actual political circumstances to create politically useful images. The consciousness industry, in creating almost universal commodification, has fused propaganda and advertising in the selling of products and politics. Emphasis on spectacle and happening, immediate delivery, and manipulation of demand represent important changes in the way that capitalism and democracy work. A new mode of information in which social relations are mediated by electronic communication systems is being created. But saturation coverage in the media has not created a better‐informed, more active electorate. Rather, it has reduced the political process to a level of mindless slogans, trivial issues, and meaningless simulations.     

The methodology of judicial behavior research: A review and critique

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the development of a better fit between theory and methodology in judicial behavior research by reviewing, assessing, and making recommendations for the use of the latter. The methodological practice of judicial behavior research is assessed, and recommendations and projections to the future are provided. Four components of methodology—research design, data sources and generation procedures, operationalization and measurement of concepts, and statistical methods and measures—are discussed. Judicial behavior is understood to have a primary focus on the explanation of the behavior of individual decision makers, but also includes decision making within or by groups of decision makers and by courts.     

Green citizenship and the political critique of injustice

Over recent decades, normative theories of green citizenship have drawn upon observations that a long-prevalent dualistic understanding of society, as completely subjecting nature, is being displaced by growing political and cultural support for a holistic view of society, as participating in nature. Differences between avowedly liberal and civic-republican interpretations of green citizenship notwithstanding, the normative theories share five key social critiques: (1) the need to challenge nature/culture dualism; (2) to dissolve the division between the public and private spheres; (3) to undermine state-territorialism; (4) to eschew social contractualism and (5) to ground justice in awareness of the finiteness and maldistribution of ecological space (ES). This article offers a sympathetic provocation to normative theories of green citizenship. Adopting a critical realist perspective, it describes the partial and problematic realisation of these critiques in the contemporary types of social and political participation, contents of the rights and duties and institutional arrangements of the ‘stakeholder’ citizenship that has become established within the neoliberal or weak eco-modernising, global competition state. This perspective is important because it offers new insights into the discursive framework that encompasses contemporary debates over justice and injustice. In particular, injustice from within the post-industrial ecostate appears to be a diffuse whole-of-society problem, the by-product of unsustainable development that lacks an identifiable class of perpetrators. This makes the progressive task of enunciating claims that injustice is present in some senses difficult, while conservative ideological positions are simplified.     

Interpretive policy inquiry: A response to its limitations

With positivist and technocratic notions still prevalent, Paul Healy's (1986) insightful effort to advance “interpretive policy inquiry” both underscores the limitations of conventional analysis and helps us to grasp the policy process in human terms. Yet the article falls short of a systematic presentation of the interpretive position and, in doing so, reveals the limitations of that approach: the need for an explicitly critical posture becomes clear. This point is made with particular attention to a pre-positivist figure, Machiavelli. An erratum to this article is available at .