Does additional campaign spending really hurt incumbents?: The theoretical importance of past investments in political brand name

The existing literature ignores the fact that the marginal return to current campaign expenditures depends on the candidate's stock of brand name. This simple observation is then used to provide a possible explanation for the negative empirical relationship observed between an incumbent's campaign spending and how well he does.     

State budget periodicity: An analysis of the determinants and the effect on state spending

Much of the public budgeting literature focuses on the institutional rules of budgeting and how those rules affect process and outcomes. This study focuses on a particularly rudimentary rule of budgeting: the length of the budget period. State budgets are dictated (constitutionally or statutorily) to recur over one-or two-year intervals. Statistical analysis of the determinants of state budget periodicity shows that the more states spend, ceteris paribus, the more likely they are to budget annually. I hypothesize that budget periodicity has the opposite effect on spending: Biennial budget states spend more, ceteris paribus, than annual budget states spend. Ordinary least squares analysis does not support the hypothesis, but with instrumental variable methods, biennial budgeting exhibits a positive and statistically significant effect on state spending.     

An examination of the causal relationship between government spending and revenue: A cointegration analysis

This paper tests the validity of the proposition that there is a causal relationship between government expenditure and government revenue for Greece over the period 1957–1993. The empirical analysis employs tests of cointegration as pre-tests for Granger tests of causality. The empirical evidence suggests that there is a long-run relationship between government spending and government revenue and expenditures cause revenues.     

Parties,candidates and issues in the German federal election of 1980: An application of normal vote analysis

An application of the concept of a normal vote to the West German political system is attempted. Normal vote parameters for West Germany are calculated and the 1980 Federal election is analysed by means of this newly established baseline. Furthermore, a modified version of the well-known Boyd formula for the computation of short-term effects will be proposed since under some circumstances Boyd's S may be seriously inflated. Finally, the formula will be extended to multivariate relationships. Applying the resulting partial short-term coefficient shows quite clearly that the outcome of the 1980 German Federal election was more strongly influenced by candidate evaluations than by issue orientations.     

The mobilization of the Swedish vote: An ecological analysis of the general elections of 1928, 1948 and 1968

Abstract. This paper focuses on the floating vote and the floating voter at three critical junctures in modern Swedish political history: the general elections of 1928, 1948, and 1968. The topic is in the mainstream of electoral research, but with one important proviso: it is a study of floating without the benefit of survey data. The analysis is based on Thomsen's (1987) method of ecological inference. The ecological estimates confirm the conventional wisdom that the Swedish elections of 1928, 1948 and 1968 were mobilizing elections, bringing large numbers of new voters to the polls, and marked by considerable mobility between the parties. They were also realigning in that they held out the possibility of a new status quo. In 1928 and 1948 the parties of the right were on the offensive; in 1968 the Social Democrats held the initiative. But the new coalitions were potentially unstable; it was the floating voters, particularly those with a previous history of non-voting, who spelled the difference between defeat and victory. The paper makes an important contribution to the validation of Thomsen's method.     

The crisis of European socialism: Searching for a (really) big idea

After the Fall: The Failure of Communism and the Future of Socialism. Edited by Robin Blackburn. London: Verso, 1991. Pp. xvi + 327. £39.95 (hardback); £11.95 (paperback). ISBN 0–360 320–1 and 540–9. (Henceforth, Fall).

Social Democracy in Transition: Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe. Edited by L. Karvonen and J. Sundberg. Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1991. Pp. ix + 321. £35 (hardback) ISBN 1–85521–1114. (Henceforth, Transition).

The Left Unraveled: Social Democracy and the New Left Challenge in Britain and West Germany. By Thomas A. Koelble. Durham and London: Duke University Press, 1991. Pp. xii + 162. $34.95 (hardback) ISBN 0–8223–1108–9. (Henceforth, Unraveled).

The Crisis of Socialism in Europe. Edited by Christiane Lemke and Gary Marks. Durham and London: Duke University Press, 1992. Pp. x + 253. £37.95 (hardback); £12.50 (paperback) ISBN 0–8223–1180–1 and 1197–6. (Henceforth, Crisis).

Socialist Parties in Europe. By José Maravall et al. Barcelona: ICPS (Institut de Ciències Politiques i Socials), 1991. Pp. 222. NP, ISBN 84–7794–172–6.(Henceforth, Parties).

A History of Social Democracy in Postwar Europe. By Stephen Padgett and William E. Paterson. London and New York: Longman, 1991. Pp. xii 4 + 290. £24 (hardback); £9.99 (paperback) ISBN 0–582–49173–8 and 49174–6. (Henceforth, History).

Is Socialism Doomed? The Meaning of Mitterrand. By Daniel Singer. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988. Pp. 295. £19.50 (hardback). ISBN 0–195–04925 x. (Henceforth, Doomed).

Moscow and the Global Left in the Gorbachev Era. Edited by Joan Barth URBAN. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1992. Pp. xii + 204. $32.95 (hardback); $14.25 (paperback). ISBN 0–8014–2726–6 and 8008–6. (Henceforth, Moscow).     

The dynamics of issue competence and vote for parties in and out of power: An analysis of valence in Britain, 1979–1997

This article develops the reward‐punishment issue model of voting using a newly collated aggregate measure of issue competence in Britain between 1971 and 1997, revealing systematic differences between governing and opposition parties in the way citizens' evaluations of party competence are related to vote intention. Using monthly Gallup ‘best party to handle the most important problem’ and vote intention data, time series Granger‐causation tests give support to a classic issue reward‐punishment model for incumbents. However, for opposition parties this reward‐punishment model does not hold: macro‐issue competence evaluations are Granger‐caused by changes in vote choice or governing party competence. An explanation is offered based upon the differentiating role of policy performance and informational asymmetries, and the implications are considered for comparative studies of voting, public opinion and for political party competition.     

Innovation at the edges of the metropolis: An analysis of innovation drivers in Sydney's peripheral suburbs

Abstract

This article discusses using the concept of innovation ecosystems to assess innovation intensity in peripheral areas of metropolitan regions. Innovation is a significant driver of prosperity, industrial growth, and job creation. Emergent areas of new technology applications have their roots in entrepreneurial and innovative practices. However, studies have focused on the strengths that cities—and central business districts and inner suburbs in particular— have relative to the industries of the emerging knowledge economy, notably information technology and financial, property, and business services. Most of the time, the peripheral suburbs have been neglected.

The results from a study of innovation drivers in Sydney, Australia, show that peripheral suburbs in metropolitan areas have local innovation processes that require specific planning measures to promote innovation intensity. Some of these processes are linked to local suburban characteristics that might not apply to the entire city or metropolitan region.     

Competition and Monopoly Power in Local Government: An Extension of Caplan (2001)

Caplan (2001) shows that because land is asource of immobile wealth, localgovernments can use the property tax toavoid competitive pressures of the Tieboutmodel, allowing them to deviate fromcitizens' preferences. In this comment Ishow that the property tax is not the onlytax local governments can use to avoidcompetitive pressure. Most taxes placed onproperty owners allow local governments toextract some rents despite perfect citizenmobility.     

An Essay on Officialism (Guanben Zhuyi): A Political Analysis of Chinese Traditional Society

This paper formulates a new paradigm, ‘officialism’ (Guanben Zhuyi or 官本主义), and uses it to analyse China’s traditional society. The author argues that officialism is an official based doctrine and a political culture and socio-political system which takes official power and authority as its core element. Under this culture and system, relationships of official power and authority are the most important social relationships. They become the basic standard for measuring a person’s social value, and they are the determining factor influencing a person’s social status and social attributes. In traditional China, monarchism (Junzhu Zhuyi) (君主主义) was the highest form of officialism. Despotism is the representative characteristic of officialism. People-based doctrine (Minben Zhuyi or 民本主义) is the political ideal that is the antithesis of despotism. Democracy with the rule of law is the only way of smashing officialism and of spurring traditional political civilization to head towards modern political civilization.     

Why triggers fail (and what to do about it): An examination of the unemployment insurance extended benefits program

During periods of high unemployment, many workers exhaust their unemployment insurance (UI) benefits before regaining employment. To help alleviate this problem, Congress created the extended benefits (EB) program, expanding the number of weeks of benefits available to UI recipients in high unemployment states. The EB program operates by “triggering on” additional weeks of benefits in states where unemployment and UI benefit receipt are above federally established thresholds. We analyze the performance of the EB program by creating a series of policy simulations using weekly UI claims and unemployment data from the program's inception in 1970 through the most recent economic expansion in 2005. Overall, we find that EB triggers, as currently constructed, fail as a policy tool for extending UI benefits. Minor adjustments to the triggers are unlikely to be effective. We develop an alternative set of “fix point” triggers that allow the EB program to trigger on and off in a more timely fashion. These triggers outperform all previously legislated triggers as well as other commonly proposed triggering mechanisms on criteria of timeliness, breadth, and duration. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Survival at the Intersection of Government and Business: The Unique Case of the Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade)

The Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade) is a government organization whose responsibility is to promote Australian exports and investment facilitation in global markets. It has a unique position of being a government agency and at the same time working alongside and with business in assisting exporters enter overseas markets. This relationship is often strained both for reasons of changing government preferences in terms of assisting exporters as well as pressures on the government budgets. Yet Austrade has been able to remain a steadfast intersection between government and business despite the competing strategies of its two main stakeholders – government and business. This paper assesses Austrade as a case of organizational survival maintaining its equilibrium through sound management and serendipity.     

Participation in voluntary individual savings accounts: an analysis of IRAs, 401(k)s, and the TSP

New voluntary individual savings accounts have been proposed by some as a part of, or in addition to, Social Security. The success of these proposals would depend greatly on how many workers participate. This paper compares participation rates in three existing voluntary individual account-type plans--Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), 401(k)s, and the federal Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)--to clarify expectations about who might participate in a voluntary individual account system. It finds that participants in IRAs, 401(k)s, and the TSP tend to be disproportionately male, higher earners, older, full-time workers, and either white or nonblack minorities compared with the population at large. Differences in earnings explain much of the difference between participation rates of men and women, however, but less of the difference between participation rates of workers of different races. Whether participation in a new system of voluntary individual accounts would resemble participation in IRAs, 401(k)s, or the TSP would depend on a number of factors. For instance, the population covered by 401(k)s and the TSP is much smaller than that covered by Social Security. Average earnings are also higher among 401(k) and TSP participants than for workers covered by Social Security, which, based on these findings, suggests that participation rates could be lower in a universal system. Participation would also depend on many other factors, however, such as the extent of matching contributions or other financial incentives, the investment options available, and the amount of education provided to potential participants.     

Portugal's semi-presidentialism (re)considered: An assessment of the president's role in the policy process, 1976–2006

This article analyses the policy-making role of Portugal's heads of state in the period 1976–2006. Not only is Portugal rarely studied in the English language comparative literature, but there is no consensus concerning the proper definition of the country's system of government, whether it is semi-presidential or parliamentary. This article presents new data on the Portuguese president's role in the following areas: cabinet appointment and dismissal; parliamentary dissolution; ministerial appointments; referral of legislative bills to judicial review; veto powers; and agenda-setting through going-public tactics. It is concluded that the president's role in the policy process has never been irrelevant. While the 1982 constitutional reform did eliminate the possibility of undisguised presidential government, presidents have continued to be important in policy making, particularly due to use of their veto and dissolution powers. Therefore, the article argues that Portugal has remained solidly semi-presidential.     

Tinpots,Totalitarians (and Democrats): An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Economic Growth on Civil Liberties and Political Rights

Ronald Wintrobe (1990, 1998) has recently provided atheoretical foundation for estimating equations that attemptto explain the dependence of civil liberties and politicalrights in non-democratic regimes on the history of economicgrowth. This theory suggests that data from different kinds ofnon-democratic countries should not be pooled without allowingcoefficients to vary with regime type. It also placesinteresting restrictions on the signs of the coefficients ofeconomic growth in equations explaining freedom in the typesof regimes Wintrobe identifies. In this paper, we employ theserestrictions to test Wintrobe's theory. Some additionalhypotheses about the difference between democratic andnon-democratic regimes and about the role of education, notconsidered by Wintrobe, are also investigated.The results indicate clearly that the relationship between thedegree of freedom – as measured by the sum of the Gastilindexes of civil liberties and political rights – andeconomic growth varies significantly across all types ofregimes. Totalitarians (that attempt to maximize power) areclearly different than tinpots (that just attempt to maintainpower) in this respect, and non-democratic regimes differ fromdemocracies. Other aspects of the theory are partiallyconfirmed. In particular, in totalitarian regimes, positivegrowth reduces freedom, and negative growth increases it insome specifications. The theory predicts the opposite patternfor tinpots, and we do find that negative growth reducesfreedom in tinpot regimes. However, positive growth in tinpotsalso appears to reduce freedom in some cases, which is not inaccord with the theory. Secondary schooling has a positive effect on freedom, as inprevious empirical work, a result that is shown here to holdeven when each type of regime is considered separately. Butthe effect of primary schooling is different: in tinpot andtotalitarian regimes, but not in democracies, primaryschooling is associated with reduced freedom.