THE PHILADELPHIA FOOT PATROL EXPERIMENT: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL OF POLICE PATROL EFFECTIVENESS IN VIOLENT CRIME HOTSPOTS*

Originating with the Newark, NJ, foot patrol experiment, research has found police foot patrols improve community perception of the police and reduce fear of crime, but they are generally unable to reduce the incidence of crime. Previous tests of foot patrol have, however, suffered from statistical and measurement issues and have not fully explored the potential dynamics of deterrence within microspatial settings. In this article, we report on the efforts of more than 200 foot patrol officers during the summer of 2009 in Philadelphia. Geographic information systems (GIS) analysis was the basis for a randomized controlled trial of police effectiveness across 60 violent crime hotspots. The results identified a significant reduction in the level of treatment area violent crime after 12 weeks. A linear regression model with separate slopes fitted for treatment and control groups clarified the relationship even more. Even after accounting for natural regression to the mean, target areas in the top 40 percent on pretreatment violent crime counts had significantly less violent crime during the operational period. Target areas outperformed the control sites by 23 percent, resulting in a total net effect (once displacement was considered) of 53 violent crimes prevented. The results suggest that targeted foot patrols in violent crime hotspots can significantly reduce violent crime levels as long as a threshold level of violence exists initially. The findings contribute to a growing body of evidence on the contribution of hotspots and place‐based policing to the reduction of crime, and especially violent crime, which is a significant public health threat in the United States. We suggest that intensive foot patrol efforts in violent hotspots may achieve deterrence at a microspatial level, primarily by increasing the certainty of disruption, apprehension, and arrest. The theoretical and practical implications for violence reduction are discussed.     

Seasonal Variation in Violent Victimization: Opportunity and the Annual Rhythm of the School Calendar

Objectives

This study draws on an underused source of data on seasonality—victim surveys—to assess whether violent crime occurs with greater frequency during summer months or whether it simply becomes known to police more often, and to examine the extent to which seasonal patterns in violent crime are differentiated based on victim characteristics and location of crime.

Methods

Data used come from the 1993–2008 National Crime Victimization Survey. Time series regression models are estimated to describe seasonal differences in violent crime victimization and reporting rates.

Results

Seasonal trends in youth violence stand in contrast to the trends for young and older adults, primarily due to their high risk of victimization at and near school. No evidence of seasonality is found in the extent to which serious violence becomes known to the police. However, simple assault is significantly more likely to come to the attention of the police during the summer months, primarily due to increases in the reporting of youth violence.

Conclusions

Our findings confirm some of the previous work on seasonal patterns in violent crime, but also show that these patterns vary across age groups, locations, and type of violence.     

Violent disorder in Ciudad Juarez: a spatial analysis of homicide

This article considers the extent to which specific demographic and socioeconomic factors correlate with homicidal violence in the context of Mexico’s “war” on organized crime. We draw on Ciudad Juarez as a case study and social disorganization theory as an organizing framework. Social disorganization is expected to generate higher levels of homicidal violence. And while the evidence reveals several social disorganization factors associated with homicidal violence in Ciudad Juarez, not all relationships appear as predicted by the theory. Drawing on public census and crime data, our statistical assessment detects six significant variables (or risk factors) positively associated with homicidal violence in Ciudad Juarez between 2009 and 2010. Likewise, the assessment finds another six specific variables (or protective factors) that are negatively associated with above average homicide in the city between 2009 and 2010. The featured data and level of analysis do not conclusively demonstrate causation, nor was this the intent. Rather, we propose a baseline model for testing spatial-temporal dynamics of organized violence in multiple settings.     

袭警罪中“暴力”的法教义学分析

自《中华人民共和国刑法修正案(十一)》实施以来,全国各地的袭警罪首案频发。司法实务人员对袭警罪中"暴力"的理解泛化以及入罪门槛过低,导致袭警罪大有成为我国继醉驾犯罪之后第二大犯罪的趋势,如何理解袭警罪中的"暴力"因此成为理论和实务中的难题。结合我国司法实务中部分地区发生的袭警罪的典型首案,根据刑法中"暴力"的含义以及袭警罪"暴力袭击"行为的规范内涵,袭警罪中"暴力"的性质仅限于"硬暴力"而不包括"软暴力";暴力的发生仅限于突袭性而不包括缓和及具有预见可能性的非突袭性暴力,暴力突袭性的具体特点包括突发性、瞬时性和意外性;根据袭警罪侵害警察人身安全、妨害公务正常执行从而侵犯公共秩序法益之逻辑关系,以及构成要件符合性与保护法益之间的共通性,应联系暴力袭警行为及其结果,通过法益甄别值得处罚的暴力袭警行为,从而将不具有可罚性的暴力袭警行为排除在刑法的适用范围之外。     

Intervening in domestic violence as a police task: legal reform and policing versus citizens’ perspective

Violence in Western societies has received increased public and legal attention during the past few decades, while simultaneously, evidence of decreased violent behaviour has been identified. A specific type of violence that has undergone changes in visibility and increased legal intervention is domestic violence (DV). Have people become more sensitive to all kinds of violence? In this case, DV would not stand out as a crime demanding increasing police intervention. In this article, the public’s perceptions of the importance of intervening in DV as a police task are analysed. Comparisons with the assessed importance of other types of police tasks are made to evaluate the changes in a broader attitudinal context, and official police statistics are reflected against the trends identified from the survey data. In the results, DV stands out in the comparison of change in the importance of police tasks. The hypothesis of increased cultural sensitivity is not confirmed concerning all types of crimes – or even violent crimes. The results can be understood to support the theory about increased cultural sensitivity concerning an issue previously seen as a private matter rather than a criminal act and police matter – DV.     

The influences of incident and contextual characteristics on crime clearance of nonlethal violence: A multilevel event history analysis

Using multilevel event history analyses, this article investigates the effects of both incident and contextual (social disorganization and police resources) factors on crime clearance by arrest for robbery, forcible rape, and aggravated assault incidents in 106 cities. The analysis found that victim's age, the number of concomitant offenses and victims, victim's injury, and weapon use played important roles in crime clearance for all three types of nonlethal violent incidents. Among social disorganization variables, higher unemployment and racial segregation significantly decreased the odds of clearance for robbery and aggravated assault, but not for rape. Instead, higher divorce rates significantly decreased the odds of rape clearance. This suggests that social disorganization may play a different role in the clearance mechanisms for sexual than for nonsexual violent offenses. The effects of police resource variables on clearance were not significant in the expected direction for any of the three types of incidents.     

COMPROMISED POLICE LEGITIMACY AS A PREDICTOR OF VIOLENT CRIME IN STRUCTURALLY DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES*

This study examined whether indicators of compromised police legitimacy explained variations in violent crime within New York City police precincts from 1975 to 1996. Integrating models of urban cultural attenuation and procedural justice, the study hypothesized that variations in patterns of police misconduct and over/under policing (the indicators of police legitimacy) would predict variations in violent crime rates of communities characterized by concentrated structural disadvantage. Using a panel design and controlling for the relevant ecology of crime factors and spatial autocorrelation, the study found that in communities characterized by high disadvantage, incidents of police misconduct predicted variations in violent crime; in communities characterized by extreme disadvantage, both indicators of compromised police legitimacy (misconduct and over policing) predicted variations in violent crime. The study found no significant relationships between the indicators of police legitimacy and violent crime in communities of low disadvantage. Findings support emerging arguments that emphasize the importance of formal institutions of social control in the most structurally disadvantaged communities (that is, those often subjected to cultural attention) and suggest implications for the ecology of crime model and police accountability.     

On the Limits of Social Control: Structural Deterrence and the Policing of “Suppressible” Crimes

The present study examined the relationships between patterns of police arrests and subsequent variations in robbery, burglary, and aggravated assault in New York City police precincts from 1989 to 1998. Grounded in the structural deterrence theoretical perspective, and using a two‐stage fixed‐effects statistical framework, the study found that while controlling for indicators of social disorganization, increases in arrest vigor (i.e., arrests per officer for violent crimes in each precinct and raw arrest counts) predicted decreases in robbery and burglary, but that the relationships were non‐linear: as arrest vigor increased, robbery and burglary crime decreased; when arrest thresholds were reached, however, both robbery and burglary crime rates became positively associated with arrest aggressiveness. Conversely, variations in aggressive arrest patterns had no significant effect on aggravated assault, supporting the suppressible crimes arguments that primarily economically motivated crimes, and those that tend to occur in public settings, are most likely deterred by aggressive police practices.     

INTERGROUP AND INTRAGROUP VIOLENCE: IS VIOLENT CRIME AN EXPRESSION OF GROUP CONFLICT OR SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION?*

The impact of residential turnover and compositional change at the neighborhood level on local patterns of crime lies at the center of most ecological studies of crime and violence. Of particular interest is how racial and ethnic change impacts intragroup and intergroup crime. Although many studies have examined this effect using city‐level data, few have evaluated it using neighborhood‐level data. Using incident‐level data for the South Bureau Policing Area of the Los Angeles Police Department aggregated to census tracts, we use a novel methodology to construct intragroup and intergroup rates of robbery and assaults. The South Bureau has experienced dramatic demographic change as it has transitioned from a predominately African‐American area to a predominately Latino area. We find support for the social disorganization model, as racial/ethnic transition in nearby tracts leads to greater levels of intergroup violence by both groups as well as to more intragroup violence by Latinos. Such neighborhoods seem to experience a breakdown in norms, which leads to higher levels of violence in all forms. Particularly noteworthy is that intragroup crime is highest in all settings, which includes the most heterogeneous tracts. We also find support for the consolidated inequality theory, as greater inequality across the two groups leads to more violence by the disadvantaged group.     

Intimidation and Street Gangs: Understanding the Response of Victims and Bystanders to Perceived Gang Violence

While research routinely examines the influence of gang membership on the quantity of violent crime involvement, less is known about the influence of gang violence on the situational characteristics of violent victimization. Felson’s discussion of street gangs highlights the possible functional role gang membership plays in the commission of violent crime; what he terms “the street gang strategy.” This study examines the functionality of gang membership during violent crimes by investigating the influence of perceived gang membership on the likelihood of victim resistance, bystander intervention, and police reporting using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Findings offer little support for the idea that gang members intimidate victims and bystanders to the extent that their behavior during and after violence differs systematically from responses resulting from non‐gang violence. Results are discussed in terms of their policy relevance and implications for future research.     

LAND USE AND VIOLENT CRIME*

Although research has shown specific land uses to be related to crime, systematic investigation of land uses and violent crime has been less common. This study systematically examines links between land uses and violent crime and assesses whether such links are conditioned by socioeconomic disadvantage. We employ geocoded Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data from the Indianapolis police department and information on 30 categories of land use and demographic information from the 2000 U.S. Census. We use land use variables to predict violent crime counts in 1,000 × 1,000‐feet grid cells using negative binomial regression models. Results indicate that, net of other variables, specific land uses predict variation in counts for individual violent crimes and aggregate rates. Some nonresidential land uses are associated with higher violent crime counts, whereas others are associated with lower counts. Specific land uses also condition the effects of socioeconomic disadvantage on violent crime. The implications for routine activity/opportunity and social disorganization/collective efficacy theories of crime are discussed.     

Violent Crime in the Urban Community: A Comparison of Stockholm and Basel

In this article the authors present some preliminary findings from a comparative study of police recorded violent crimes in Stockholm and Basel. They present the first results from a comparative analysis of the situational context, the ecology of crime, and of offender residences in these cities. There is impressive evidence of basic similarities in the situational context of violent crime and the residential distribution of violent offenders. Yet there are also significant differences, some of which may have interesting implications for crime prevention. Firstly, violent crime seems to be more highly concentrated during weekend nights in Stockholm than in Basel. Secondly, they find evidence that the presence of weapons in a community increases the risk of more serious outcomes of violent events. Efforts to reduce the availability of weapons may thus have significant effects on the outcomes of violence, but not necessarily on its frequency. Thirdly, they show that offenders in both cities are highly concentrated in socially disorganised communities with few economic and social resources.     

The impact of agency context, policies, and practices on violence against police

This study examined agency-level factors that impact the level of violence against police. The independent variables represented both agency context (e.g., violent crime rate, population characteristics) and agency policies and practices (e.g., backup and body armor policies) and were linked to constructs within routine activities theory. Information on agency policies and practices came from an agency survey. Data for the dependent variable―agency counts of officer killings and assaults over a three-year period―came from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). Negative binomial regression was used to assess the impact of the independent variables on the dependent measure. Three of the independent variables—measuring body armor policies, agency accountability, and violent crime—had statistically significant relationships with violence against police.     

Social Disadvantage and Family Violence: Neighborhood Effects on Attitudes about Intimate Partner Violence and Corporal Punishment

Social disorganization theory asserts that neighborhood composition affects levels of violence within the community. The purpose of this article is to analyze the bivariate effects of social disorganization, crime, and collective efficacy, in addition to the individual factors of gender, race, and a history of child maltreatment, on the acceptance of using violence within the family. Data from the Norfolk Police Department (2000–2004), 2000 Census, and 2006 Norfolk Residents’ Attitudes about Crime Survey were used to determine differences in approval of family violence. Results indicated that approval for family violence is an individual-level phenomenon as well as a community-level occurrence. Various aspects of family violence elicit different levels of tolerance by both micro- and macro-level characteristics. Implications are discussed.     

Official Crime Statistics and Survey Data: Comparing Trends of Youth Violence between 2000 and 2006 in Cities of the Czech Republic,Germany, Poland,Russia, and Slovenia

Based on official crime statistics, violent crimes of youths in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe had appeared to have increased considerably between 1990 and 2000. Survey data that can overcome limitations of police data and allow to compare crime trends across countries are rare. Based on self-report delinquency studies of 15 year old juveniles in 1998–2001 (SRD) and 2006 (ISRD-2) using compatible questionnaires in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe (partly in the same cities), trends of attitudes towards violence, of victimisation experiences and self-reported wanton and instrumental violence are compared cross-nationally. There is substantially less approval of violence in 2006 and a corresponding decrease of victimisation experiences and violent behaviour between 1999 and 2006. Official crime statistics show serious limitations. The results are discussed with respect to theories of modernisation and social change.     

CIVIC COMMUNITY IN THE HINTERLAND: TOWARD A THEORY OF RURAL SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND VIOLENCE*

Drawing on the civic community literature, this article explicates a theoretical model to explain variation in rates of violence across rural communities. It is hypothesized that rural communities with a stable population base that is locally invested, a vibrant participatory civic culture with a well‐developed noneconomic institutional base, and a robust economically independent middle class will have lower rates of violent crime. Results from the analysis of data for more than 1,000 rural counties reveal that the 11 variables used to operationalize the theory are empirically distinguishable from indicators of resource disadvantage and form three well‐defined indices: a residential stability/local investment factor, a local capitalism/independent middle class factor, and a civic engagement factor. Negative binomial regression models confirm that violent crime rates are generally much lower in communities that score high on these dimensions. Implications of these findings for future macrolevel criminological research are discussed.     

Modeling violent crime rates: A test of social disorganization in the city of Tshwane, South Africa

Tests of social disorganization theory are commonplace in international criminological literature. Indeed a plethora of studies had emerged over the past seventy years examining and extending the theory throughout much of the developed world. The testing, however, of the landmark theory's key propositions in Africa in general, and South Africa in particular, is in its infancy. This study aimed to address this shortcoming by analyzing associations between various census measures of social disorganization and violent crime rates in the city of Tshwane, South Africa. Overall, marginal support was found for the social disorganization theory: violent crime in Tshwane was associated with certain measures of socioeconomic deprivation, and residential mobility. The study not only demonstrated the applicability of certain elements of Western criminological theory to contemporary urban South Africa, but also revealed important differences in the ecological dynamics of violent crime across differing cultural contexts.     

Criminal Violence and Youth in Sweden: A Long-term Perspective

Since the mid-1980s, the Swedish public has become increasingly concerned about juvenile violence. This article confronts the public belief of increasing juvenile violence with systematic criminological data from crime statistics and other sources. Based on police and court statistics, as well as data from victimization studies and cause-of-death statistics, it is concluded that there is good reason to believe that Sweden is currently experiencing an 'enforcement wave' with regard to juvenile violence (particularly in the youngest age brackets), which reinforces the image of dramatic increases in the level of juvenile violence. The reasons why juvenile violence is thought to be on the increase even in the face of a lack of hard empirical evidence are discussed. Four long- and short-term trends are proposed as possible explanations: (i) the well-ordered modern society; (ii) the role of the mass media; (iii) the growth of feminine values; and (iv) the application of an offensive model of crime policy.     

Sanctuary Policies and City-Level Incidents of Violence, 1990 to 2010

Despite media coverage of isolated incidents of violent crime perpetuated by undocumented immigrants in cities with sanctuary policies, there is scant systematic research on the relationships between the adoption of sanctuary policies, unauthorized immigration, and crime. We compile city-level data from official sources and use fixed-effects negative binomial regression to examine whether the adoption of city-level sanctuary policies and the concentration of unauthorized Mexican immigrants are associated with homicide and robbery incidents in 107 U.S. cities, across three decades. We find evidence that the adoption of sanctuary policies is associated with a reduction in robberies but not homicide. In contrast, an increase in the relative size of a city’s unauthorized Mexican immigrant population corresponds with a reduction in homicide; however, only in sanctuary cities. Lastly, shifts in violence during our study period are consistently related to social structural characteristics of cities, which are findings consistent with social disorganization theory.