亚马尔－涅涅次自治区的人口问题

俄罗斯经济转轨以来，亚马尔——涅涅茨自治区的人口状况是极北地区最好的。主要表现是人口自然增长率较高，迁入人数超过迁出人数。其原因是当地的工资水平和社会保障水平较高。使用“远方”的临时工作者近来有扩大的趋势，这将使常住人口的失业率上升、迁出数量增加。     

当代拉丁美洲人口发展特点和趋势分析

自20世纪60年代以来,拉丁美洲的人口在经历了前期的快速度发展后,其增长率逐步减缓,预计在未来一二十年内,大部分国家将完成向着低生育率的人口转变。伴随这一进程,拉美人口的年龄结构也迅速发生了变化,未来老龄化的趋势将明显加速。过去拉美曾长期大量吸纳外来移民,但从50年代中期起在整体上已逆转为人口的净迁出,成为世界上国际人口迁移的重要来源地。     

东北地区突出性人口问题及其经济社会影响

目前,东北地区主要存在着人口净迁出规模不断扩大、人口老龄化日趋严峻、人口出生率过低,以及边境地区人口流失严重等突出性人口问题。从长期来看,这些突出性人口问题必将对该区域的经济社会发展产生重要影响,其中包括,社会保障体系面临财力支撑风险、许多城市面临空心化风险、基础教育等基本公共服务运营面临两难困境、边境安全面临一定隐患等问题。为此,建议率先在东北地区进行全面开放二胎政策试点,尽早实行社会保障资金全国统筹,为沿边地区居民提供特殊补贴,加快推进公共财政均等化。     

高等教育对东南亚妇女的影响——东南亚妇女参与高等教育研究

20世纪70年代以来,随着东南亚高等教育的发展,妇女参与高等教育的人数和比例都有长足进展,到90年代,接受三级教育的女性在人口中的人数较之50、60年代有了极大提高(表1)。1950年,缅甸10万女性人口中女大学生只有8人,1995年提高到640人。柬埔寨1950年女大学生在10万女性人口中的人数只有4人,1994年提高到36人。老挝1960年女大学生在10万人口中的人数尚不足1人,1995年提高到79人。1950年越南10万女性人     

印尼反恐斗争与美国安全利益

前言印尼是世界第四人口大国,全国人口2.2亿。印尼又是世界上穆斯林人数最多的国家,伊斯兰教徒占总人口的85%。印尼也是东南亚地区大国,自然资源和人力资源非常丰富,在本区域地位举足轻重,其政治稳定和伊斯兰势力的动向令国际社会关注。     

泰国的人口、教育和人力政策——15—19岁年龄组案例研究

导言随着泰国社会的工业化和现代化,泰国人口正在从高出生率向低出生率转变。这一转变具有一些基本的特点。一方面,人口出生率的逐步下降意味着需要接受义务小学教育的人数正在减少,另一方面,中学学龄人口仍然在增加。此外,中学学龄人口也是进入劳动力市场的年龄段。就这点而论,制定发展计划特别是制定人力发展计划对于泰国社会未来的福利是至关重要的。     

拉丁美洲有四千万文盲

据美洲国家组织教育、科学和文化执行书记豪尔赫·塞拉西最近公布:目前拉丁美洲的文盲总数已达四千万人。这些文盲的大部分都是生活贫困的居民,他们营养不良或处于饥饿状态,同时也缺少住房和其他一些生活必需品。在拉美,文盲人数最多的国家是海地和玻利维亚,其次是危地马拉、墨西哥和秘鲁,文盲人数最少的国家是阿根廷、乌拉圭、智利和哥斯达黎加,这几个国家的文盲人数都不超过全国人口的10％。     

老挝政治经济概况

人口情况根据老挝政府1985年3月第一次全国人口普查结果报告:老挝的总人口为358万人,其中男性175万,女性为182万,分布在236800平方公里的国土上,老挝人口分布在亚洲是最稀少的,每平方公里仅15.1人。据老挝官方统计,在老挝人口中,非老挝族的占40％,共有65个少数民族。受过高等教育的人数仅1.1万人,其中女性占3000人;另外1.35万人(9000为男性,4500人为女性)受过中等教育或培训。1985年3月止,15岁以下年龄的人数占总人数的44％,现每年人口增长率为2.9％,农民和处于贫穷的、卫生条件极     

越南的社会劳动力

(1)迅速增长的人口和劳动力劳动力数量的多或少,其增长速度的快或慢,完全取决于劳动力的人数及其自然增长速度。一个多世纪以来,我国是属于世界上人口增长速度最快的一类国家。各种统计数据表明,从1970年到1940年,我国人口增加了一倍,即从1,000万人增至2,000万人,人口增加一倍所需的时间为70年。至1980年,我国人口为53,722,000人,即比1940年增加了1.7倍,人口增加一倍所需的时间为30年。     

战后华侨的再移民及其原因剖析

战后,由于国际政治经济局势的改变,海外许多华侨纷纷从原来的侨居地迁出,再次进行移民。战后大量华侨的再移民,使世界华侨人口发生了地区性的变迁,在国际上产生了一系列的影响,这是一个很值得研究的社会现象。本文试图从宏观方面对这一现象进行一些论述和探讨。 (一) 中国是一个人口众多的国家。由于历史上的各种原因,许多中国人被迫离开祖国,移民到海外一些国家,在这些国家繁衍和发展。可是,战后,一些国家的华侨又纷纷通过各     

Population: fiction and fact

This article was written to refute some common misunderstandings regarding worldwide population levels and worldwide nutrition levels. The world food supply is able to keep pace with high population growth levels. Worl food production currently meets world need; the problem is a distribution system which allocates food only to those who can pay rather than to those who need it. In many developing countries, the best agricultural lands are reserved for commercial crops rather than for subsistence crops. The U.S. food aid program does not help the most needy nations generally. The rate of world population growth is already slowing down. The desire for large families in developing countries is very often a realistic reaction to the prevailing economic system. Family planning programs will succeed. They will succeed even better in countries where general development planning is undertaken concurrently with family planning. Environmental problems are attributable to the consumption explosion in the rich countries rather than to the population explosion in the poor countries.     

Revolution of the unemployed

The population problem cannot be solved by a few heads of state sitting round a table and reaching an agreement, is not susceptible to short-term action, and cannot be solved by some new miracle of science and technology. There are no shortcuts, no easy answers, and no undiscovered escape routes to the problem of population. This crisis will change the face of the world and change it in the lifetime of most persons alive today. When and how changes will occur is uncertain. The only certainty is change itself. The injustices are mounting: trade structures which do not allow half the world to earn a decent living; consumption patterns which pollute and strain the world's resources far more than population growth; economic systems which benefit the few at the expense of the many; and political forces which deny people power over their own lives. All this will change as the deprived majority of the world increases in numbers and in awareness and organized power. It is a fair assumption that unemployment will provide the flashpoint. Unemployment and underemployment in the 3rd world are hovering between 25-30% and are still rising. In the next 10 years over 300 millions people will be added to the world's labor force and an estimated 230 million of them will be school leavers in the developing world. Unemployment is no longer confined to the older, illiterate, rural dwellers who are "hidden away" and cared for by their extended families or villae communities. Increasingly the unemployed are young, educated city dwellers. They know more about the world and expect more from it. These facts suggest radical changes. The only choice is to work and plan for that change to be reasoned and rapid. Otherwise, it will be a bloody and sudden change. Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable.     

延边朝鲜族人口可持续发展研究

人口发展是可持续发展的关键。近十年以来,延边朝鲜族人口呈现负增长态势,严重影响了延边人口可持续发展。延边经济滞后是延边朝鲜族人口低出生、高死亡、负增长的根本原因。尽快建立社会保障制度、大力发展延边地方经济,是现阶段解决延边人口负增长、保证延边人口可持续发展的必要举措。     

Surprise Moves in Negotiation

In a game-theoretic model of a negotiation, a surprise move always has the potential to create uncertainty. This uncertainty can be beneficial to just the player making the move, or it can be beneficial to all the players involved. Moreover, there are situations in which a surprise move can change the very nature of the interactions. In particular, if the interactions follow specified procedures, the surprise move can reduce the effect of the procedures on the outcome. By showing that these results hold in the precisely defined world of game theory, it is argued that they are applicable in the more ambiguous world of real negotiations. At a broader level, the game-theoretic results imply that there is a sense in which the context can never be known for sure. The results also imply that the uncertainty created by surprise moves can be strategically useful.     

振兴东北中的扩大就业问题研究

振兴东北老工业基地是一个经济社会系统工程,各方面的改革都是重要的,但是不同方面的改革并不是具有同等重要意义的,也不可能是同步进行的。振兴东北的首要目标要从经济增长转向扩大就业,不能把就业作为经济增长的一个配套措施来考虑。目前有两个认识误区:一个是经济增长会自然解决失业问题;另一个是东北地区人口规模较大,而且面临新增就业人口的高峰,高失业率将是一个常态。扩大就业有4条措施:一是坚持劳动者自主择业,是建立新型劳动就业体制的核心;二是建立公平竞争、自由流动的劳动力市场,降低-切阻碍劳动力流动的交易成本;三是补充东北等老工业基地养老金和失业社会保障基金的不足是中央政府的援助政策的重点;四是解除对关键中间产品市场的垄断,促进产业链的延伸和组织的演进。     

吉林延边朝鲜族人口安全问题研究

由于人口负增长等人口发展的特殊性,吉林延边朝鲜族人口安全面临诸多挑战。吉林省延边朝鲜族人口安全的核心问题是人口负增长,其中延边朝鲜族妇女的生育意愿、迁移流动是两个最为关键的制约因素。为此,我们必须改革创新延边朝鲜族地区人口与计划生育制度;密切关注延边朝鲜族人口国际流动过程中涉外人口迁移问题;适当采取经济措施提高延边朝鲜族生育意愿;促进外向型经济发展,改善延边朝鲜族人口发展的经济条件。     

Wellness and illness: the aftermath of urban mass housing in Lagos,Nigeria

Mass housing policy and an attendant population increase play a vital role in the socio-economic profile of Lagos. The article, using data from mass housing projects, explains the effects of these projects on intra-urban dynamics and the implications in Lagos. The pace of urban growth is increasing, and there is an absence of supporting infrastructures. The areas where populations are decreasing happen to be where contemporary housing construction is concentrated. Therefore, programmes aimed at providing housing and improving quality of life should, as a priority, deal with factors affecting population growth and spatial distribution.     

A Postscript to the Asian Financial Crisis: The Fragile International Economic Order

This article situates the East Asian financial/economic crisis among other key economic events of the post-Cold-War world, assessing its significance alongside that of America's extraordinary economic growth in the 1990s and the collapse of the 1999 World Trade Organization meeting in Seattle. According to the author, the financial crisis could not have been avoided merely by removing national governments and international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund from markets. Such faith in unregulated markets is based on the incorrect assumption that investors are rational, as well as on the anomalous experience of the United States in the 1990s. While the US economy did improve markedly over the last decade, this growth was not due to unfettered capitalism, but rather to idiosyncratic aspects of the economy, such as a high borrowing rate. Gilpin points out that the end of this economic growth, alongside the protectionist impulses exhibited at the Seattle meeting, has contributed to a move away from international trade liberalization. The American free-market model, tarnished by corporate corruption, he argues, is no longer the goal of developing economies concerned about the lack of market controls. The result, he fears, is a growing fragility in the stability and governance of the global economy.     

Democracy and the demographic transition

This article addresses the role of demographic factors in contributing to the emergence of democracy. It maintains that, other things being equal, progress in the demographic transition promotes democratization. The argument is developed with reference to the effects of interrelated changes in mortality, natural increase (i.e. population growth), fertility, and population age structure. Suggestions are also made with respect to how demographic and democratic trends should be gauged. An analysis of data for the period 1970–2005 for 77 countries that were initially non-democratic provides substantial support for the argument. Some implications are discussed, as are future trends in democratization from a demographer’s perspective.     

高油价背景下韩国产业政策走向及对中国的启示

石油作为一种基础能源产品,目前约占全球能源消费的40%,它的价格变动牵动着经济的每个领域,2002年以来的国际高油价显出固定化特征,石油的供应趋紧将会是未来世界面临的问题,由于能源消费增长率高于经济增长率、单位GDP能耗较高;能源对石油的依赖水平高于发达国家;能源消费集中在制造业和运输业;能源的97%、石油的100%依赖于进口等问题的存在,对韩国提出了严峻挑战,给韩国的能源安全造成了极大压力。为此,韩国提出了能源自立、调整产业结构、从需求角度提高能效、从供给角度扩大新能源、再生能源等替代能源的开发和普及、大力支持环保型汽车的开发等产业政策目标。