The rise of risk assessment and risk management in the United Kingdom

This article examines the reform of the health care system in England in terms of the risk assessment and risk management. Three major health policies are examined, the Health of the Nation strategy, community care and the Patient's Charter. The article demonstrates that effective risk assessment and risk management is an important component of each initiative. The Health of the Nation strategy is based on epidemiological evidence on the nature of health risks and is linked to specific targets for the reduction of harm that require effective management of risks. Community care is a well established policy designed to provide long term and continuing support for vulnerable individuals in the community. With high profile incidents in the 1980s, there has been a greater emphasis on effective risk assessment and risk management, especially to protect the public. The Patient's Charter is designed to empower users of service.

Central to this strategy is informed consent. Effective empowerment depends of the provision of adequate information, especially on the risks of treatment. Although competent adults may formally be autonomous risk-taking decision-makers, their ability to assess risk and make decisions depends on having adequate information.     

Comparing political futures: the rise and use of scenarios in future-oriented area studies

The predictive ability of scholars of politics has long been a subject of theoretical debate and methodological development. In theoretical debate, prediction represents a central issue regarding the extent to which the study of politics is scientific. In methodological development, much effort and resource have been devoted to a diverse range of predictive approaches, with varying degrees of success. Expectations that scholars forecast accurately come as much from the policy and media worlds as from the academy. Since the end of the Cold War, scenario development has become prevalent in future-oriented research by area studies scholars. This approach is long due critical re-assessment. For all its strengths as a policy tool, scenario development tends towards a bounded methodology, driving the process of anticipating futures along predetermined paths into a standardised range of options, and paying insufficient attention to theoretical and contextual understandings available within the relevant scholarly disciplines.