An Analysis of Military Transparency

Military transparency has become a hot topic among political, military and academic communities over recent years. China＇s efforts to increase its military transparency have been widely recognized by the international community. But some countries are still particular about China＇s military transparency, accusing China of inadequate transparency time and again. Here, I would like to offer some personal views on this issue.     

论中国的军事透明度

多年来,西方主要国家一直认为,综合国力快速提升给中国带来"富国强兵"机遇.在它们看来,20世纪90年代后期,中国军费持续以两位数百分比增长,军队现代化走向尚不明确,中国对国防意图、军队规模与构成、军费使用、军事部署等保持"不透明"状态,对周边国家构成挑战和威胁.西方主要国家对中国提出的军事透明度,既不是双边,也不是多边的,在更多时候是要求中国全方位单向透明.它们炒作中国军事透明度,或是源于认识落后,或是对中国信任不足,或是为制造"中国威胁论"做铺垫.     

The Logic of Coercion in Cyberspace

What are the dynamics of coercion in cyberspace? Can states use cyber means as independent tools of coercion to influence the behavior of adversaries? This article critically assesses traditional coercion theory in light of cyberspace's emergence as a domain in which states use force, or its threat, to achieve political objectives. First, we review the core tenets of coercion theory and identify the requisites of successful coercion: clearly communicated threats; a cost–benefit calculus; credibility; and reassurance. We subsequently explore the extent to which each of these is feasible for or applicable to the cyber domain, highlighting how the dynamics of coercion in cyberspace mimic versus diverge from traditional domains of warfare. We demonstrate that cyber power alone has limited effectiveness as a tool of coercion, although it has significant utility when coupled with other elements of national power. Second, this article assesses the viability and effectiveness of six prominent warfighting strategies in the traditional coercion literature as applied to the cyber domain: attrition, denial, decapitation, intimidation, punishment, and risk. We conclude that, based on the current technological state of the field, states are only likely to achieve desired objectives employing attrition, denial, or decapitation strategies. Our analysis also has unique implications for the conduct of warfare in cyberspace. Perhaps counterintuitively, the obstacles to coercion that our analysis identifies may prompt states to reevaluate norms against targeting civilian infrastructure.     

The Global Expansion of Capital Logic

In analyzing international politics and economics, scholars have used a variety of paradigms. Economists, for example, look at globalization and its effects on consumers, developed and developing countries, and its effect on the political structure of various countries. In the realm of politics, some look to the role of the United Nations, others look to the role of the United States as the lone superpower.     

论主权财富基金透明度问题

主权财富基金是各国外向性投资的主渠道之一,也是当前国际金融市场上的重要新兴力量。随着它的规模和影响力快速扩大,国际社会对它及其透明度问题的关注日益上升。增大透明度已成主权财富基金不容回避的问题和必然趋势。     

The Inherent Logic behind Rising China-Japan Tensions

Regardless of the basic principles governing bilateral relations over -the past four decades and the possible damage to the interests of the people of the two countries, the Japanese government has deliberately touched China＇s raw nerve frequently over delicate issues in disputes over the past couple of years. In 2010, the Naha prefectural court attempted to put on trial a Chinese boat captain detained for fishing near the disputed Diaoyu Islands. In 2012, under the pretext of preventing Tokyo Governor Ishihara Shintaro from ＂purchasing＂ these islands, the Yoshihiko Noda cabinet attempted to ＂nationalize＂ them. In 2013, flying in the face of world opinion, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe insisted on paying a visit to the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, where the ashes of Class A war criminals are enshrined, and hinted at similar action in the future. Are these all the action of individual political leaders？ If not, what is Tokyo up to？ What of bilateral relations？     

Suicide Squads: The Logic of Linked Suicide Bombings

What strategic logics underlie terrorist groups’ use of linked suicide attacks? Are the goals that groups seek to achieve when sending linked bombing teams somehow inherently different than when sending individual suicide bombers? To answer these questions, this article introduces three typologies of linked suicide bomber detonation profiles—simultaneous, sequential, and nonproximate—and theorizes why terrorist groups might view each type of linked suicide bombing to be preferable to deploying a single suicide bomber. Improvements resulting from using an individual attacker include: ensuring a higher likelihood of successfully hitting a given target (simultaneous detonations); causing more casualties than a single bombing (sequential-wave detonations); and engendering wider-spread shock and awe (nonproximate detonations). Drawing on an original dataset detailing the entirety of Boko Haram’s suicide bombing efforts from 2011 to 2017, we then examine the extent to which these linked bombing typologies do actually appear to successfully lead to an improvement over the deployment of single suicide bombers. While we find that sequential-wave and nonproximate suicide bombings demonstrate evidence of hypothesized improvements over the deployment of single suicide bombers, our data show that deploying simultaneous suicide attackers does not lead to higher efficacy at targeting when compared to the deployment of individual bombers. In attempting to account for this fact, we argue that Boko Haram’s simultaneous detonation teams likely fail to show an improvement over single-bomber attacks because they tend to be composed of what we call “unenthusiastic and under-trained” bombers: teams of often uncommitted women, and sometimes children, which it deploys in tandem in a bid to avoid individual defection and increase the likelihood of at least one detonation in an attack. We conclude by suggesting what the process of linked bombing reveals about both terrorist groups in general and Boko Haram specifically.     

“一带一路”倡议推动全球经济治理变革的逻辑根源——基于发展逻辑与资本逻辑的比较分析

长期以来,全球经济治理由西方国家主导,遵从新自由主义的资本逻辑和竞争单方取胜的经济全球化运行逻辑,建构单方面契合西方国家利益偏好的统一规则治理模式。当前,这一传统的全球经济治理面临前所未有的困境而亟待变革。中国倡导的一带一路以中国道路的成功为事实基础,顺应发展导向与实践理性相互加强的理论逻辑,践行发展共赢的包容性全球化运行逻辑,塑造以包容性发展机制为核心特征的全球经济治理中国方案。对发展逻辑而非资本逻辑的遵循是一带一路倡议能够推动全球经济治理变革的逻辑根源。     

Sources of Transparency: Information Systems in International Regimes

Scholars and practitioners alike have stressed the important role of transparency in promoting international regime compliance and effectiveness. Yet many regimes fail to create high levels of transparency: governments and nongovernmental actors regularly fail to monitor or report on their own behavior, the behavior of other actors, or the state of the problem these regimes seek to resolve. If more transparency often, if not always, contributes to regime effectiveness, then identifying the sources of transparency becomes an important research task. Regime transparency depends upon both the demand for information and the supply of information. Specifically, regimes can seek "effectiveness-oriented" information to assess whether regime members are collectively achieving regime goals or "compliance-oriented" information to assess whether particular actors are individually fulfilling regime commitments. The incentives and capacities that relevant actors—whether governments, nongovernmental organizations, or corporate actors—have to provide such information depend on whether the regime's information system is structured around self-reporting, other-reporting, or problem-reporting. Although many of these factors are determined by characteristics of the actors involved or the structure of the problem, regimes can increase transparency by enhancing the incentives and capacity actors have to contribute to a particular regime's transparency.     

Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia

It is widely claimed that secondary states across East Asia are not purely balancing or bandwagoning, but rather hedging between the United States and China by combining policies of economic and political engagement with risk management. We argue that hedging behavior should not include costless activities that do not require states to face trade-offs in their security choices. We redefine hedging as signaling that generates ambiguity over the extent of a secondary state's shared security interests with great powers. This definition returns the focus to security relationships and better accounts for the trade-off between autonomy and alignment. Based on this definition, we argue that hedging occurs in far narrower (but arguably more interesting) circumstances than is widely believed. Many Asian states have existing treaty alliances with the United States or major territorial conflicts with China, creating path dependencies that reinforce balancing behavior rather than hedging. We therefore clarify cross-national variation in state behavior and contribute to the larger research project on regional responses to China's rise.     

全球化的发展逻辑与中国路径

全球化发展是战争、经济、技术和大国政治四种逻辑共同作用的结果,这四种逻辑决定了当前全球化处于相对的停滞期。全球化需要积累新的动力才能继续发展。在全球化进程中,中国既是受益者,也是贡献者。面对全球化遭遇挫折,中国更需要有所作为,推动全球化向前发展。全球化符合中国和世界经济的共同利益。中国推动全球化的路径可以从全球、地区和国内三个层面展开。然而,中国的全球化路径面临自身能力、利益分配、规则制定以及机制建设等四方面的制约。中国要切实准备,争取有所突破,实现中国和世界的双赢。     

美国特朗普政府对华贸易冲突的权力逻辑

美国对华贸易冲突折射出特朗普任期内的美国对华经贸战略出现了四个实质性变化。无论就全球层面还是就双边关系以及对美中两国各自的利益而言,特朗普政府的对华贸易冲突都有着特殊的意义。因此,我们必须对这一课题给予足够的重视。从性质来看,美中关系正从战略伙伴质变为竞争对手,其特征是美国将对华接触调整为对华规锁。从逻辑上看,美国特朗普政府对华贸易冲突必须被置于心理预期和大国间权力消长的维度中去加以解读。为有效应对美国的贸易施压,中国既要在坚持底线思维和合作共赢的前提下与美国开展贸易对话,又要坚定不移地贯彻实施科技强国战略,加快推进出口市场多元化战略,积极稳妥地推进对外开放,深化双边、诸边和多边经贸合作。     

"Unexpected" Logic

Dao: As India always astonishes the world in many ways, the final result of the May election in India also makes people surprised. We know that while Bharatiya Janata Party (hereinafter refers to as BJP) took power, India's economy grew steadily, political situation remained stable, its international status was on the increase, and India took on a momentum of "quick rise."     

Renewing IMF surveillance: Transparency, accountability, and independence

In this paper, we present a vision for IMF surveillance that seeks to produce a more accountable, transparent, and independent surveillance process. First, to make surveillance more focused, the IMF’s assessment should be principles-based; that is, the Fund should assess the overall coherence of exchange rate, monetary, fiscal and financial policies, with a view to analyzing their effects on external stability. Second, the IMF should have a governance structure that increases incentives to support candid, transparent assessments of surveillance. In practice, this entails a different role for the Executive Board: the Board will set out the Fund’s strategic framework for surveillance; the Managing Director and the staff will conduct surveillance. These reforms clarify the roles and responsibilities of the IMF and its member countries in the surveillance process. Also, our proposed reforms aim at making surveillance more even-handed and objective. We believe that this principles-based approach can bolster the credibility and legitimacy of surveillance, giving the Fund greater influence on the economic policies of members.

融合还是分立：全球经济治理制度变迁的逻辑

在新技术革命、新冠肺炎疫情等外部冲击下,国家行为体的权力、利益、观念等结构性变化驱动全球经济治理制度加速变迁。中美两国是最重要的国家行为体,代表制度整合和制度分立两股力量,双方的制度博弈将决定全球经济治理制度变迁的方向。未来,真正的多边主义与伪多边主义、全球化和逆全球化、霸权和反霸权将在国际舞台上不断角力,全球经济治理制度网络将呈现复杂性增强和区域化增进的特征。面对中美两国的制度差异,需要承认制度多样性,提升制度包容性,才能深入推进全球经济治理体系改革。     

Sino-U. S. Military Transparency in a New Security Concept

Military transparency is a complicated and sensitive issue in the Sino-U. S. relations and also a touchstone testing the degree of their interest coincidence. One can hardly gain a full and profound insight into the essential implication of military transparency if he is dominated by the realist logic and putting undue emphasis on the importance of it in the bilateral military relation.Given the fact that China and the United States are two important powers shouldering critical responsibilities for maintaining global peace and security, this article argues that only by adopting a new security concept toward military transparency could the two countries forge a consensus on the international security situation and remove misunderstanding, misgivings and distrust in their military contacts and cooperation. Only by actively seeking and constructing a new security regime could the two sides strengthen the institutional base for their military cooperation.