Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

Youth offending and youth transitions: the power of capital in influencing change

Neither the literature on offending nor that on desistance adequately explains the short-term nature of youth offending, young people’s propensity to desist from offending as they reach early adulthood and the importance of youth transitions in helping or hindering young people’s access to legitimate and conventional opportunities and responsibilities. It is suggested in this article that the three phases of offending—onset, maintenance and desistance—run parallel courses with the three phases of youth transitions—childhood, youth and adulthood and that both these processes are influenced by discrepancies in levels of capital for young people at each stage. In a recent Scottish study of desistance, Bourdieu’s concepts of capital are used to demonstrate the commonalities between youth offending and youth transitions and to better understand young people’s search for integration and recognition—whether this be through offending or conventionality. The article concludes that the concepts of capital and youth transitions could both be employed more usefully in the field of criminology to explain the transient nature of offending in youth and the greater likelihood of desistance once legitimate and sustainable opportunities are found to spend as well as to accumulate capital in early adulthood.

ONSET AGE,PERSISTENCE, AND OFFENDING VERSATILITY: COMPARISONS ACROSS GENDER*

Offending specialization has received considerable attention in past research on criminal careers. Relatively little attention has been given to examining the relationships between various sub‐group differences and the extent to which individuals tend toward specialization or versatility in their criminal careers. In the present analysis, we examine hypotheses derived from Moffitt's recent developmental theory that bear directly on offending specialization. Our analysis examines direct relationships between gender, onset age, persistence and offending specialization as well as the interaction of these influences and offending specialization. Our findings reveal results that are both consistent and inconsistent with Moffitt's dual taxonomy of offending behavior.     

Understanding offense specialization and versatility: A reapplication of the rational choice perspective

An understanding of offender specialization and versatility offers benefit to both criminal justice policy and theoretical foundations. The majority of research examining offending specialization/versatility, however, sought to inform crime policy. Accordingly, there was little theoretical insight as to why individuals might engage in more specialized offending, or instead, diversify in their criminal participation. An earlier application of rational choice theory to the offending specialization — versatility issue was premised on the idea that the theory inherently predicted specialization in offending. Other interpretations offered it as a heuristic tool for understanding both crime specialization and versatility. The findings from a series of logistic regression techniques on a national level probation sample supported rational choice predictions about successive tendencies in offending participation that fulfill likely offender needs.     

Gender Differences in Specialization in Intimate Partner Violence: Comparing the Gender Symmetry and Violent Resistance Perspectives

Research on male domestic violence offenders has typically considered them to be highly specialized offenders, and specialized theories and policies have been developed to address this type of offending. Some scholars have suggested that intimate partner violence is not as specialized as has been previously assumed. Especially in terms of gender differences, intimate partner violence research and theory suggest some variability in the level of specialization apparent for offenders. The current study uses the gender symmetry and violent resistance perspectives of women’s use of intimate partner violence to examine gender differences in specialization among a sample of intimate partner violence arrestees. Analyses employed multivariate models estimating the diversity index as a measure of specialization in general and multilevel item response theory to assess specialization in intimate partner violence specifically. Results indicate that female arrestees demonstrate significantly greater levels specialization as compared to male arrestees, providing support for the violent resistance perspective. Implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed.     

Detecting Specialization in Offending: Comparing Analytic Approaches

Offending specialization continues to be a subject of empirical inquiry for scholars interested in criminal careers. Early research consistently spoke to the generality of offending profiles, but more recent work has revealed somewhat mixed findings. These results have emerged alongside newly developed and applied methods that detect and describe offending specialization. To what extent these methods shape divergent conclusions and/or provide overlapping insight remains unclear, however. Therefore, the degree to which more recent inquiries are actually studying the same operational definition of specialization is unknown. In order to consider this issue further, this study utilizes four frequently applied approaches with a single data set. The study indicates when and where findings converge and also describes any unique insights provided by each method. The work concludes with a discussion surrounding the utility of applying multiple strategies in assessing specialization in criminal offending.     

SPECIALIZATION IN JUVENILE COURT CAREERS

The study of specialization in offending careers is relevant to the key theoretical issue of whether different types of offending reject only one underlying theoretical construct (such as delinquent tendency) or several different constructs. This research improves on previous studies of specialization in offending careers in three ways: (1) It is based on the complete juvenile court careers of a very large sample of offenders (nearly 70,000). (2) It uses a fine-grained classification of 21 offense types. (3) It uses a new measure of the strength of specialization, the Forward Specialization Coefficient (FSC). Both transition matrices and offending careers are studied.
The major findings from the transition matrices are (1) there was a small but significant degree of specialization in offending superimposed on a great deal of versatility: (2) the degree of specialization tended to increase with successive referrals, and this was not due to more versatile offenders dropping out: and (3) the relative extent to which offenders specialized in different offenses held for two jurisdictions (Maricopa County, Arizona, and Utah), both sexes, and all ages.
The analyses of offending careers showed that the most specialized offenses were runaway, burglary, motor vehicle theft, liquor violations, incorrigibility, curfew, truancy, and drugs. Nearly 20 percent of the offenders were identified as specialists. The conclusion is that, while offending was versatile to a first approximation, delinquency theories should attempt to explain specialization and specialists in order to yield more accurate quantitative predictions about offending careers.     

The effect of offender characteristics on offense specialization and escalation

The primary goal of this research is to investigate whether adolescent correlates of criminal behavior also serve as correlates of specialization and escalation in the criminal career. Prior research on offense sequences has focused on (1) establishing the existence of specialization and escalation and on (2) testing whether observed patterns of offense sequences differ across age and race of offender. We use data on 2,294 offenders from the Predicting Parole Performance in the Era of Crack Cocaine study (Haapanen & Skonovd, 1999). A series of multinomial logit models test for significant behavioral, social, and psychological correlates of the likelihood of offender specialization and escalation. The results show that without taking into account offender characteristics, there is evidence of specialization and escalation comparable to that found in prior research. Once offender background characteristics are controlled statistically, overall evidence of specialization and escalation is significantly reduced, indicating that (1) background characteristics are important predictors of types of offending and (2) background characteristics help to explain patterns of offending across the criminal career.     

Marriage and Desistance from Crime in the Netherlands: Do Gender and Socio-Historical Context Matter?

Over the last two decades, research examining desistance from crime in adulthood has steadily increased. The evidence from this body of research consistently demonstrates that salient life events—in particular, marriage—are associated with a reduction of offending across the life course. However, previous studies have been largely limited to male samples in the United States. As a result, questions regarding the universal effect of these relationships remain. Specifically, research is needed to assess whether the desistance effect of life events like marriage varies by gender and/or socio-historical context in countries other than the U.S. The present research addresses these gaps by examining the relationship between marriage and criminal offending using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study (CCLS). The CCLS includes criminal conviction histories spanning a large portion of the life course for nearly 5,000 men and women convicted in the Netherlands in 1977. Because we assess change over multiple observations within and between individuals, we utilize hierarchical models to estimate gender and contextual effects of marriage on criminal offending (i.e., any, violent, and property convictions). Overall, we find consistent support for the idea that marriage reduces offending across gender and socio-historical context. Notably, we find that the reduction in the odds of offending due to marriage is significantly greater for individuals in the most contemporary context. The implications of these findings are discussed.

AN EXAMINATION OF OFFENSE SPECIALIZATION USING MARGINAL LOGIT MODELS*

Research on offense specialization has concluded that there is a great deal of versatility in offending. Although the preponderance of evidence supports versatility, some research points to a small but significant tendency to specialize. Beyond this observation there is little consensus over the degree of offense specialization, the similarities and differences between people who commit violent acts and those who engage in other criminal behavior, or the extent to which general causal processes are sufficient to explain variation in diverse forms of crime and delinquency. At the heart of the confusion is the fact that criminal behaviors across a wide spectrum are positively correlated with one another. In our opinion, the conclusion that general offending trumps offense specialization is the result of research designs that predetermined such a conclusion. We propose an alternative method, marginal logit modeling, that supports many desirable features suited to the investigation of offense specialization. We analyze nine self‐reported delinquent behaviors (with a tenth category representing “No Offense”) from the Add Health study. We show that violent offenders are more likely to engage in additional violent offenses, nonviolent offenders are more likely to engage in additional nonviolent offenses. For some offense types, we find no evidence of a tendency to commit both violent and nonviolent offending. For others, the offense generalization effect is weak compared to the offense specialization effect.     

A Criminal Career Study of the Continuity and Discontinuity of Sex Offending during the Adolescence-Adulthood Transition: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Incarcerated Youth

Longitudinal research has seriously challenged assumptions that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are characterized by high level of dangerousness, mental health problems, and crime specialization in sex offenses. The current study examines the longitudinal pattern of offending among a sample of JSO and a sample of juvenile nonsex offenders. The research design includes longitudinal data over a nine-year period allowing the examination of offending patterns and the crime mix from age 12 to age 23. The findings highlight that, while JSO are prone to persist offending in adulthood, there is limited continuity of sex offending. Further, the findings stress the importance of taking into account nonsexual juvenile delinquency, more specifically, youth violence, to make a better assessment of early adult offending outcomes of JSO.     

SPECIALIZATION IN VIOLENCE: EVIDENCE OF A CRIMINAL SUBGROUP*

This study examines the criminal arrest records of a Danish birth cohort of 28,884 men to test the hypothesis that specialization exists for violent offending. Property offending is included for comparison. Specialization in violence is found to exist for offenders with more than three arrests, and specialization in property offending, for offenders with fewer than four arrests. Knowledge of past violent offending is discussed as a potentially valuable part of the predictive equation of future violence.     

Something Old,Something New: Revisiting Competing Hypotheses of the Victimization-Offending Relationship Among Adolescents

This study revisits a familiar question regarding the relationship between victimization and offending. Using longitudinal data on middle- and high-school students, the study examines competing arguments regarding the relationship between victimization and offending embedded within the “dynamic causal” and “population heterogeneity” perspectives. The analysis begins with models that estimate the longitudinal relationship between victimization and offending without accounting for the influence of time-stable individual heterogeneity. Next, the victimization-offending relationship is reconsidered after the effects of time-stable sources of heterogeneity, and time-varying covariates are controlled. While the initial results without controls for population heterogeneity are in line with much prior research and indicate a positive link between victimization and offending, results from models that control for time-stable individual differences suggest something new: a negative, reciprocal relationship between victimization and offending. These latter results are most consistent with the notion that the oft-reported victimization-offending link is driven by a combination of dynamic causal and population heterogeneity factors. Implications of these findings for theory and future research focusing on the victimization-offending nexus are discussed.     

RETHINKING THE “NORM” OF OFFENDER GENERALITY: INVESTIGATING SPECIALIZATION IN THE SHORT‐TERM

The life‐course approach to criminal career research has devoted a good deal of attention to the generality or specialization of offending behavior. Typically, extant research demonstrates versatility on the part of offenders, yet such findings could be attributable, at least in part, to time and measurement aggregation bias. This work uses a temporally disaggregated and individualized measure of diversity in offending to determine whether the previous findings of generality hold up to shifts in methodology. Using data from a sample of serious felons, results indicated that the magnitude of specialization is greater than in prior studies. Regression results indicated that certain demographic and local life‐circumstance variables are related to the extent of diversity. Theoretical and methodological implications are identified and discussed.     

Depth-interviewing Finnish professional criminals

This article shows how easy and valuable is to interview offenders, when the information of crime or criminals life is needed. There is no need to use just authorities information that is often very one sided and focused on solving single crime or personality behind the committed crime. During this study I interviewed 15 persons and one group of 6 persons. The 21 interviewees represented 14 different groups active in the 1990s in Finland and cross-border criminality. The interviewed persons were selected for equal representation of four different criminal backgrounds. The types of crimes that Finns typically commit across borders (from abroad to Finland) include: (1) different kinds of smuggling (spirits, tobacco and drugs), (2) trafficking in prostitutes and organising their work (procuring) in the country. From Finland to foreign countries, Finnish criminals primarily, (3) handle stolen goods (fencing), (4) money laundering. The persons selected to be interviewed were still committing or had recently committed these types of crimes. There are only a few empirical studies made on professional criminals. It is amazing how similar the findings of these are, even though the three studies—British, American and the present—reflect different social conditions and different decades. On occasion it feels that the place and time of study are irrelevant, as if you are reading and analysing just one study. From the research point of view it is interesting how such similar findings are possible. None of the 14 groups that I studied were able to fulfil the 14 variables of organised crime, that I required for a group to be classified as an organised crime group.

Dissecting the Prevalence and Incidence of Offending During the Crime Drop of the 1990s

Objectives

To evaluate whether the 1990s crime drop reflects a decrease in offending prevalence (the fraction of the population engaged in crime), offending incidence (the frequency of offending among active criminals), or some combination of the two.

Methods

We use individual-level longitudinal data on adolescent offending patterns from the Pittsburgh Youth study (PYS), integrating information from the youngest and oldest cohorts to compare offending among 17–18 year old males at the beginning and end of the 1990s. Logistic and negative binomial regression models are estimated to assess whether there are significant differences in offending prevalence and incidence during the 1990s.

Results

The reduction in property crime rates in the PYS sample during the 1990s can be attributed to declines in both offending prevalence and incidence. The overall decline in serious violence during the 1990s for the full sample was primarily the result of a falloff in prevalence. However, for black youth our results indicate significant reductions in both the prevalence and incidence of serious violence. We did not detect a significant difference in illegal drug sales during the period.

Conclusions

Using longitudinal data on individuals to decompose aggregate crime trends into changes in the prevalence and incidence of offending offers insights into the nature of the 1990s crime drop that cannot be discerned from aggregate crime data. Future research should build on the current study by examining the specific mechanisms that influence change over time in crime prevalence, incidence, or both.

     

Impulsivity,Offending, and the Neighborhood: Investigating the Person–Context Nexus

The traditional trait-based approach to the study of crime has been challenged for its failure to acknowledge differences in the social environments to which individuals are exposed. Similarly, community-level explanations of crime have been criticized for failing to take into account important individual differences between criminals and non-criminals. Ultimately, a full understanding of crime requires the consideration of both individual and environmental differences, perhaps most importantly because they may interact to produce offending behavior. Yet little criminological research has examined if the effects of individual-level characteristics vary by the context in which they are embedded. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by using multivariate, multilevel item response models to examine if the influence of impulsivity on offending differs as a function of neighborhood context. Analyses using data from the Project of Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods reveals that the effects of impulsivity are amplified in neighborhoods with higher levels of socioeconomic status and collective efficacy, and lower levels of criminogenic behavior settings and moral/legal cynicism. Implications of these findings for research and policy are discussed.     

PERINATAL COMPLICATIONS PREDICT VIOLENT OFFENDING

Pregnancy and birth complications are frequently treated as one variable, despite evidence that pregnancy events and birth events may have different impacts on the developing child. This paper studies the association between perinatal events and the development of violent and property crime. In the context of a prospective study of a sample of 216 subjects drawn from a Danish birth cohort, 15 violent criminals and 24 property criminals were compared with 177 nonoffenders on pregnancy and delivery events. Delivery events predicted adult violent offending, especially in high-risk subjects and recidivistically violent offenders. No other significant predictive results were found.     

Specialization and seriousness during adult criminal careers

Crime-type switching between arrests is examined for tendencies by adult offenders to specialize in crime types or to escalate in seriousness as offending continues. The adult offenders examined display higher levels of specialization than have been previously reported for juveniles; among adult offenders, those who remain criminally active until older ages are also more specialized. Also, there is some evidence of trends toward a worsening of offending: for selected crime types, adult offending becomes more specialized and escalates in seriousness for white offenders. However, similar trends are not observed for black adult offenders.Work on this paper was completed while at the School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University.     

Not Just a Boy's Club

Abstract

The extant literature suggests that habitual criminality among women is rare and that female career criminals are ostensibly nonexistent. Using the criminal records of 500 male and female adult recidivists, this study applies the concept of career criminality to women and describes how this application has specific gendered elements. Like their male peers, women are chronic, versatile offenders engaged in violent, property, and public-order offending. Women are disproportionately engaged in forgery, fraud, and prostitution whereas men are disproportionately engaged in rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. No gender differences existed for a variety of additional offenses and criminal justice system statuses. However, significant gender differences exist for social demographic characteristics, such as age and timing of onset, and criminal career parameter indicators, such as span of criminal career. These data and analyses indicate that the career criminal classification has important implications for criminal career research and gender-based criminology.