Economic prosperity or democracy: Dilemma of development in Hong Kong and China

After Hong Kong is integrated with mainland China in July 1997, the economic and political environments of the two places will inevitably link up with each other. Economic modernization significantly not only improves the living conditions of the Chinese, but also alters their social structure and political values. As such, economic prosperity and democracy become the two conflicting values in Hong Kong and China during the transition to 2000. The people of Hong Kong and China are presented a choice over two mutually exclusive targets: economic prosperity vs. democracy. On the one hand, the choice for economic prosperity will imply no democracy because a conservative political system will be maintained to preserve the political status quo. On the other hand, the choice for democracy will imply no economic prosperity, because democratization will be suppressed and hence the economy will suffer as a result of political instability. However, neither of these two choices could offer the people of Hong Kong and China a genuine prosperity and stability. Therefore a congruent relationship between the economy and the political system must be established and maintained. As prosperity is contributed by both economic growth and political stability, neglection of either of these two elements will not result in a long‐lasting prosperity. Thus, economic development and democratization are two complementary rather than contradicting forces on the road to development in China.     

The political dynamics of regulatory change: Speculation and regulation in the real estate sector

China's real estate sector has experienced dramatic changes since the late 1980s. This article explores the political economy of China's recent ‘real estate fever’ and examines the government's efforts to deal with rampant speculation and foster the growth of a real estate industry. It suggests that the political dynamics of regulatory changes in the real estate sector illustrate the problems of Chinese policy making in the reform era.     

Coping with the Global Financial Crises: institutional and ideational sources of Taiwan's economic resiliency

Over the last two decades, Taiwan has weathered two global financial crises: the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the sub-prime loan crisis of 2008–2009. Each time the island's economy emerged from the crisis relatively unscathed. Many of the elements that constitute Taiwan's economic resilience have been fostered through entrenched institutional arrangements and established policy orientations over a long period. Taiwan managed to retain the bulk of these long-running sources of economic resilience despite the tremendous external pressures exerted by neo-liberal policy advocates to dismantle these ‘out-dated’ policy thinking and practices in the name of reform during the decade-long interval between the two crises. Taiwan was able to cope with the 2008–2009 global financial crisis thanks also to a more enabling regional environment created through stronger cooperation among Asian economies and under a new awakening among the East Asian policy makers.     

Policy-making and Political Supervision in Shanghai's Financial Industry

This study deals with the political economy of local financial industries in China. It focuses on the changing patterns of political interference and the key role of Communist Party bodies in shaping business incentives. The centralization measures in the financial sector that were implemented under the Zhu Rongji government in 1998 and 1999 turned out to be not very effective in supervising local financial institutions. From 2000 to 2003, a trend towards a reaffirmation of local control in financial business emerged. Local governments began to set up new financial work bodies with comprehensive functions and extensively used local banks as their ‘moneybag’ again. Reducing the risks involved in the current politicized management of local financial business will be inseparable from political, legal and regulatory changes: curbing the Communist Party's role in cadre appointments, strengthening legal corporate governance structures and clarifying the division of labor among national and local supervisory bodies.     

Impact of inflation on Chinese economy: Growth,investment, and regional development

After 15 years of economic reforms, the most notable feature of today's Chinese economy is high economic growth compounded with high inflation. The continuous coexistence of these events has raised two questions that are important to address. That is, what is the meaning of the positive correlation between high growth and high inflation, and what is the real impact of the current inflation on China's economy. The objective of this paper is to explore the impact of inflation on Chinese economy with particular reference to economic growth, investment in fixed assets, and spatial distribution of inflation. Findings of this paper suggest that high inflation that has accompanied the recent rapid economic growth has made the GDP growth rate of today's China highly suspicious. What is more, while inflation in China has mainly been generated by over‐investment and unfruitful development in the eastern region, which is financed by excess money printing and central budget deficit, the ill effects of inflation have mostly been borne by the poor regions.     

The political economy of banking reforms in China, 1993–1997

The weakness of China's banking system poses a serious threat to the sustainability of the country's economic development. This article measures the extent of this weakness and analyzes its causes. It focuses especially on the structural changes in the banking sector, the economic crisis of 1992–1993, and the subsequent financial reforms implemented. The evidence gathered by the author shows that the banking reforms initiated since 1994 have produced mixed results. Although central bank autonomy and bank supervision have improved, political, economic, and institutional constraints have prevented the government from taking more decisive measures to re‐capitalize banks, restructure the debt of state‐owned enterprises, and increase competition in the banking sector quickly. Despite the apparent effectiveness of the short‐term measures taken to bolster public confidence in the banking system, China's banking reform will be a difficult and prolonged process.     

WTO and China's Financial Services Sector

Financial services, particularly securities markets, insurance and commercial banking, have played a crucial role in China's post-1978 economic reforms. China has so far established a market structure and a legal framework, and has a growing understanding of how financial services operate in the modern world economy. We will review China's progress in financial services reforms over the last 22 years, describe the commitments China has made to gain WTO entrance, and then evaluate the potential benefits and costs to China's financial sector of WTO accession. We conclude that even with the substantial challenges presented by greatly increased post-WTO foreign competition, China will benefit from the WTO because of a number of factors including a growing pool of well-trained personnel, lessons learned from domestic and foreign development experiences, increasing Chinese economic strength, and continual advancement of China's financial infrastructure.     

全球衰退与中国经济前景

全球经济如能在2010年前回复到稳定增长的轨道，则中国经济完全可能在走出“一枝独秀”的发展态势；全球经济如在2010年乃至较长的一个时期都无法回到稳定发展的轨道，则中国经济有可能会面临“长期调整”的发展态势。2009年的中国经济将受到强劲的投资拉动，消费将逐渐回暖，出口下滑的趋势完全取决于全球主要经济体的衰退程度，产业结构将呈现较大幅度地调整，失业状况将进一步加剧，如果2009年中国的资本市场能够保持稳定，中国经济将有可能维持在6％-8％左右的水平发展。     

CRISIS FOCUS: Risks to Recovery

A sustained recovery of the global economy at a slow but steady pace should be expected in the first quarter of 2010, according to the quarterly report on global economic and financial outlook compiled by the International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China. But three risks stand out, the report said, that threaten recovery efforts: the sovereign credit crisis, growing inflation pressures and increasing numbers of small and medium-sized U.S. banks filing for bankruptcy.     

Economic Growth and Income Inequality: the modern Taiwan experience

This paper investigates the dispersion of household income in the course of economic development in Taiwan. Statistics show that inequality of income has increased since the early 1980s as the rate of economic growth has declined from 11.6% in 1986 to 4.1% in 2005. The empirical result on the relationship between economic growth and income distribution also fails to support the conventional inverted-U Kuznets curve. Factors leading to change in income disparity may be attributed to variations in family formation, economic structures, and the recent change in political leadership and institutional policy. Among them, increased single-parent families deteriorate overall income share, although growth in the service sector helps to alleviate inequity. The new political governance and policy reform since 2000 are detected to aggravate income inequality.     

Public Support for Democracy in China

It is clear that public support for democracy is high in China. Public opinion surveys show that more than 90% of Chinese citizens believe that having a democracy is good. But the majority is not yet ready for a major effort towards democratization because they still see economic growth and social stability as more important than freedom of speech, political participation, and other democratic rights. However, more and more people are growing up with the belief that political rights and freedom supersede economic wellbeing or other materialist goals. In 15–20 years, Chinese society will be dominated by people with such beliefs. We can be cautiously optimistic about the prospects for democratic change in China.     

后金融危机时代中国金融监管立法的应对

该文指出,经济金融化是现代市场经济高度发展的必然趋势,但是金融领域所蕴含的巨大风险性、脆弱性、相关性需要严格监管,以法律手段对此进行调节尤为重要。     

MARKET WATCH

Figures for October CPI and PPI The consumer price index(CPI), a barometer of inflation, grew 4.4 percent in October, a 24-month high and 0.8 percentage points higher than in Septmber, according to the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS).     

Chinese Corporate Governance and Prospects for Reform

A critical element in China's current economic reform program is the creation of modern corporate governance structures in its corporations. Many of China's largest firms are caught between market incentives and political pressures, creating a situation ripe for managerial inefficiency. This article examines the financial and regulatory structures necessary for an efficient corporate governance system to function in China, and it assesses how these structures currently operate in the economy. The article identifies key failures in fostering modern corporate governance practices, which in turn jeopardize central elements of the government's reform program. The article includes a case study of the governance practices of PetroChina Company Ltd, the internationally listed subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation. The success or failure of the government's efforts to create proper governance mechanisms will carry important economic and political ramifications for China. Indeed, the successful implementation of corporate governance reforms may mark the final stages of China's evolution into a market economy.     

1996年以来台湾地区领导人选举中的经济投票行为研究

经济投票理论认为,执政者的经济表现决定选民投票行为,当选民认为执政者应为经济表现不佳负责,或选民对未来经济评估悲观时,会投票支持反对党,以惩罚执政党;反之则继续支持执政党.台湾地区虽采行西方选举制度,但选民在自1996年以来的台湾地区领导人选举中的经济投票行为(包括回顾性经济投票和展望性经济投票)都表现出强烈的异质性.这与台湾特殊政治生态和独特的选民结构密切关联.未来,选民的经济投票行为能否回归常态,取决于台湾社会的主要分歧线是两岸关系议题还是经济民生议题.     

简论美国次贷危机及其启示

美国次贷危机不但对美国本土经济产生巨大的打击，而且冲击着世界各国的经济。次贷危机对我国出口的影响已经显现。从目前情势看，次贷危机仍在进一步发展、蔓延，它对中国经济和对外贸易的影响还将持续。鉴于对外贸易对中国经济增长的重要性，本文重点分析了次贷危机产生的原因，以及我国从中得到的启示。     

Prescribing Economic Remedies

After slowly emerging from the financial crisis,the world economy has left the worst behind it.But the road ahead will by no means be a smooth one.Staggering unemployment,sovereign debt crises and inflationary jitters continue to stretch the nerves of policymakers.     

当前发展农村金融的总体思路

该文针对农村金融的现实问题和既有理论研究、政策主张的不足,将农村金融置于农村经济系统和整体金融系统之中,描绘了农村金融组织体系随农村经济发展而不断演变的具体路径。新时期发展农村金融要以发展农村经济,构建新型农业经营体系为主线和依托,以市场化为目标,以商业性金融为方向,以业务为纽带,通过合作性金融改制和金融自由化改革形成商业性金融服务农村的倒逼机制。在发展农村金融过程中,要引导民间金融合法化、规范化、商业化,不断完善农村金融监管体系。     

Domestic constraints and international competitiveness: A research note on the China case

This article examines China toward the end of the twentieth century through the perspectives of both the theory of relative political capacity and the geopolitical theory. While the latter theory explains a country's development as a consequence of international events, the former theory emphasizes the efficiency and competency of a government as the cause of the nation's political and economic status. We believe that the two theories should be connected in analyzing a nation's political and economic behavior; international and domestic factors reinforce each other in shaping a government's policies, strategies, and priorities. A synthetic analysis of the two scenarios shows that China is likely to continue to move toward a market economy and political democracy.     

Hong Kong's ‘One Country,Two Systems’ Experience under the Basic Law: two perspectives from Chinese legal scholars

Hong Kong is an administrative and economic entity under Chinese sovereignty. Essentially, the local political system that Hong Kong has adopted is that of a non-sovereign state as well as a non-political entity. It is neither entirely occidental nor completely oriental, but an executive-led system which has developed according to Hong Kong's characteristics and has proved to be an effective one. 1997 was not the end of the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ policy, but its beginning. To guarantee the policy's success is in the overall interest of both Hong Kong and China. As such, China has no greater interests in Hong Kong than to maintain its stability and prosperity. The Chinese Central Authorities will continue to abide by the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ policy and the Basic Law whenever problems regarding Hong Kong arise.