Economic Outlook for Asia and the Role of the Asian Development Bank

This article reviews the history of establishing the Asian Development Bank (ADB) with an original 31 members in 1966. It goes on to describe the changes that have occurred in Asia in the intervening years during which membership has grown to 67, including 48 from within Asia and the Pacific and 19 outside. It also discusses the economic outlook in Asia and the relationship between ADB and People's Republic of China. The article then gives an overview of the current organization and operations of the ADB. This article concludes by eight conditions for development that make countries reach the upper-middle-income status.     

How China Seeks to Foster an Asia‐Pacific Security Community: Peace through Consultation,Cooperation and Co‐development

Faced by increasing challenges to its national security and development, China has taken active measures to improve its security position in the Asia‐Pacific and to foster a lasting and commonly‐beneficial regional security order based on its “New Asian Security Concept”, highlighting common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable peace. Though the Chinese government tends to follow a bilateral rather than collective approach to consolidate its regional security stance for the time being, one can expect China to push forward an all‐inclusive and comprehensive platform for enhanced collective security. Yet China will not pursue a completely new security order to replace the old one. Instead, it is taking a pragmatic and incremental approach to shape the necessary environment for the evolution of the US‐led hegemonic order into a more pluralistic, inclusive, and comprehensive one, where peace and security are guaranteed through closer political consultation and more integrated economic and social development among regional countries. If Sino‐US relations can be well managed and China keeps projecting its growing power in a restrained and contributive way to provide more public goods for regional peace and development, then one can hope for an Asia‐Pacific security community to take shape in the coming decades.     

东亚文化的基本特征与传播过程中的双向互动性

东亚文化作为一个地区的文化,既具有相对的同质性或整体性,又具有多样性与差异性,它们之间的文化传播又具有双向互动的突出特点。中国文化对日、朝(韩)以及越等东南亚一些国家产生巨大影响,而各具特色的日、朝(韩)以及越等东南亚一些国家的文化对中国文化的发展与影响也不可轻视。当代东亚地区的文化传播与交流迅速发展,成为促进各国现代化建设的巨大动力。树立全球意识和开放观念,继承发展东亚传统的优秀文化,学习、吸收西方和世界其他地区的先进文化,大力增强东亚各国的交流与合作,将为21世纪东亚地区以及全世界的和平与发展做出贡献。     

从印尼五月骚乱看战后东南亚华人问题的成因及对策

印尼的五月骚乱突出了东南亚华人问题。反华排华一直是东南亚的普遍现象。导致东南亚地区华人问题的主要原因是民族经济、政治发展的不平衡、语言的复杂性、以及受冷战格局和所在国与中国关系的影响。为了根本解决东南亚的华人问题 ,华人本身、所在国、中国及国际社会等不同的社会主体应采取不同的措施。     

OECD and Asia in the globalizing world economy

In the globalizing world economy, the economic performance of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies is being increasingly shaped by dynamic and emerging economies in Asia and other areas. This fact makes it a priority for the OECD to chart a path for how countries—both OECD and non‐OECD—can best work together and meet the challenges of globalization, says Kumiharu Shigehara, deputy secretary‐general of the OECD. A primary key to that strategy is for the OECD to expand its dialogue and cooperation with economies from the Asian region, he argues.     

Emerging New East Asian Regionalism

East Asian regionalism is emerging starting with a process of “ASEAN plus three” cooperation and moving to a final East Asian Community. The foundation of East Asian regionalism lies in increasing regional common or shared interests. The significance of East Asian cooperation and integration is its developing process. “10?+?3” framework is not just an economic cooperation process but also has political significance. The process of East Asian cooperation plays a dual role in community building: reconciliation among the countries, and cultivation of each member itself. The major role of regional institutional building is peace making through cooperation under a regional framework. The cooperation between China and Japan is crucial for East Asian Community building.     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

多边主义与东亚高政治合作

中国在国际关系中积极倡导多边主义,充分体现了中国外交与时俱进的精神和当代中国外交文化的先进性内涵.推动东亚政治合作是面向21世纪中国奉行多边主义外交战略的重要步骤,它事关东亚能否崛起为世界重要一极.中国在东亚的多边主义战略目标是构建一个和谐的东亚政治经济和安全环境.由于传统和历史的原因,东亚国家一直比较重视在"低政治"领域展开合作,但对"高政治"领域的合作却畏首畏尾,显得比较缓慢和迟钝.其实,东亚国家在战后初期就存在着大国主导"高政治"领域合作的空间.东亚虽然是世界主要的文明发祥地、战后各主要国家也先后实现了经济的起飞,但是政治上的作用却未能很好发挥出来.相反,东亚却成为霸权主义和强权政治轻易得手和随意操纵的地方,特别是由于政治合作意愿淡薄,直接导致了东亚大国政治上的分散化和政治问题的频繁发生,进而也威胁到经济社会发展领域,中日关系就是一个突出的例子.解决朝核问题的多边主义模式应该机制化,这是东亚"高政治"合作的重要起点,而中国应该成为该机制化过程中的主导力量.     

稳定:经济与社会发展的基本前提--泰国威权政治的作用剖析

西方学者几乎毫无例外地将发展与民主制度联系在一起.然而,泰国,包括其他一些战后取得飞速发展的东亚国家,恰恰是在威权政治所形成的稳定的政治局势之下获得发展的.由选举所产生的文人政府,尽管他们的组阁符合民主程序,其领袖亦可称为出色的政治家,但他们常常只能维持一个只能以月计的短期政府,政局始终处于混乱状态之中,以致陷入恶性循环的怪圈.因此,稳定是泰国及其他东亚国家取得经济与社会飞速发展的基本前提.     

Dynamics of Trade in Value-Added in “Factory Asia”

ABSTRACT

Trade patterns in East Asia are termed the “Factory Asia” model, whereby Asia functions as a “global factory” that imports intermediate goods from its regional networks and then assembles and exports them as finished goods to higher-income developed countries. In 2001, China’s accession into the World Trade Organisation consolidated this pattern by becoming the core economy in this model. However, is this pattern still valid after more than a decade of rapid development in East Asian countries? The main objective of this article is to examine the evolution of this pattern of trade in East Asian countries. Although the key findings of this study show that the Factory Asia model continues, it is changing as different East Asian countries capture more value in global value chains. The gaps in the rate of upgrading are identified and mainly attributed to differences in government policies and competition. However, the dependence on foreign inputs still remains an important part of high-technology production in East Asian countries. Hence, the idea that East Asia is evolving from a “factory” into a “Research & Development hub” remains far-fetched.     

东亚金融危机——制度、文化层面分析

东亚的崛起不仅改变了现有的世界经济和政治格局 ,而且向人们昭示 ,经济发展和现代化并非只有一个模式。然而 ,自 1 997年 7月以来在东亚地区爆发的金融危机 ,使许多人在一夜之间改变了对“东亚模式”的评价。有些舆论盖棺论定 ,认为东亚金融危机说明了“东亚模式”的脆弱性 ,“东亚模式”已经死亡 ,“东亚经济奇迹”已经终结。怎样正确评价“东亚模式” ?众说纷纭 ,莫衷一是。本文拟对上述看法提出一些自己的意见 ,并试从制度和文化层而对东亚金融危机发生的深层原因作出分析。笔者认为 ,东亚必须走制度创新与文化创新相结合的道路 ,才能获得可持续的发展     

中国与东北亚各国外交中的主要课题及其应对

当今中国在东北亚各国外交中处于一个很微妙的时期,机遇与挑战并存。本文列举了五对十个挑战,并简述了形成的主要因素:中国国家影响力的增强、美国国家利益和对华政策使然、东北亚各国内政的影响等。在此基础上提出了中国应在集中精力发展自己、制定东北亚区域战略、重视美国因素培育战略互信、坚持灵活务实的原则和确立危机管控机制等方面进行应对。     

Economic cooperation and integration in East Asia

Recent developments in the relationship between East Asian countries and prospects for further cooperation are discussed, together with analysis of the driving forces for proliferation of free trade areas (FTAs) and preferential trade arrangements(PTAs), as well as the different types of arrangements. The evolution of the key features of such economic cooperation agreements are outlined and the challenges and issues facing more extensive East Asian economic integration are reviewed. The paper concludes with recommendations for bringing about a viable, effective East Asian economic community that will benefit member countries and contribute positively to global trade.     

The European Union (EU) in Asian Security: Actor with a Punch or Distant Bystander?

The EU calls itself a “soft power,” making “soft power” contributions to Asian security. That is undoubtedly what the EU is and does in Asia and the track record of European contributions to Asian peace and stability through economic and financial as well as development aid and technical assistance over the decades is not unimpressive. As will be shown below, over recent years Brussels and the Union's individual member states have sought to increase their involvement and role in Asian “hard security,” attempting to get rid of its reputation of being security a “free-rider” enjoying but not sharing the burden of US regional security guarantees. While the EU will continue to be a “hard security” actor in Asian security within limits, it is advised to concentrate its security cooperation with like-minded partners such as Japan and the US as opposed to hoping that talking to Beijing on regional or global security issues produces tangible results. As will be shown below, it clearly does not as Beijing continues to conduct very assertive and at times aggressive regional foreign and security policies insisting on the “principle of non-interference” in Chinese domestic and foreign policies. Consequently, EU influence on Chinese foreign and security policies in general and its increasingly aggressive policies related to territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas will continue to exist on paper and paper only.     

ASEAN in a Globalizing World

In the early 1990s, ASEAN emerged from the Cold War as a confident regional organization. With the accession of Cambodia, it seemed to be fulfilling the aspirations of its founding fathers to expand membership to include all ten Southeast Asian countries. Since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, however, ASEAN's self-confidence has been dealt a severe blow and it faces unprecedented challenges to its current status and future prospects. In the following article, former Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas, examines the various issues facing ASEAN today, including the impact of the Asian crisis; the ramifications of socioeconomic and political crises in the affected ASEAN countries; the implications of the rapid and fundamental changes in the international and regional economic, political and security environment; and the enlargement of ASEAN membership. Despite questions over ASEAN's future role, Alatas asserts his belief in the continuing relevance of this regional forum to contribute to regional stability.     

东盟面临的危机与挑战

本文探讨了东南亚国家联盟作为一个组织机构在这次亚洲金融危机中所起的作用。从各个国家来看 ,成员国们采取各种措施加强对银行的管理 ,加大金融交易的透明度 ,鼓励竞争 ;从双边关系来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们对受影响最严重的国家 ,尤其是对印度尼西亚进行了援助 ;从国际方面来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们共同呼吁发达国家继续开放市场 ,在重新谈判债务问题时更灵活些 ,在实施改革计划时要注意保护贫穷阶层的人士。本文追踪了在一系列会议上东南亚联盟的初衷 ,但是最后得出结论认为现有的经济合作项目有待进一步扩大合作领域 ,进一步加强责任感。     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

Some Talk,No Action (Yet): Interdependence,Domestic Interests and Hierarchical EU Governance in Climate Policy

This article analyses why Switzerland has so far remained outside the European Union's emissions trading system (EU ETS), the centerpiece of the EU's efforts to combat climate change. In doing so, it contributes three insights to the literature on the EU's external governance. First, it shows that interdependence is of limited explanatory power in predicting EU–Swiss interactions. Secondly, it identifies domestic interests in the non‐member state, Switzerland, as the key factor in explaining the EU's external governance structures concerning emissions trading. Thirdly, it highlights the EU's limited flexibility in dealing with third countries in areas where its internal governance mode is hierarchical. The article presents a hypothesis about the future development of emissions trading in Switzerland and discusses implications for both the external governance literature and the development of global carbon markets.     

从政治竞争看宪法法院在亚洲的不同命运——对韩国、印尼和泰国的比较分析

作为西方国家法治进步的产物,宪法法院在20世纪后期陆续进入亚洲国家,成为民主转型过程中重要的制度设计,但其实际效果却存在差异。韩国宪法法院在功能上呈现"多点开花"的态势,在民主、法治和人权等领域均表现良好。印尼宪法法院成功解决了总统选举过程中的争议,维护了基本的民主规则。相比之下,泰国宪法法院则经历了"高开低走"的蜕变。它在成立初期相对较好地履行了宪法赋予的职责,2006年之后却越来越深入地卷入到政治斗争之中,丧失了独立品格,做出了一系列明显违反法治精神的判决。对此,既有解释存在"西方中心主义"的弊端,而且难以同时解释宪法法院在建立和运行两个阶段的不同情况。作为一种以民主转型国家实践经验为基础的学说,政治竞争理论因其内生性、系统性的视角而具有更强的解释力。以该理论视角观察宪法法院在韩国、印尼和泰国的不同命运,在验证其科学性的同时,可以发现其中隐含的前提条件及其适用范围的有限性。     

Dezentraler und unitarischer Föderalismus. Die Schweiz und Deutschland im Vergleich

In this article it is endeavoured to analyse the different functioning of “decentralised” (Switzerland) and “unitary” (Germany) federalism. This is done by discussing the cultural and political autonomy of member states, the possibilities of member states to control and influence federal decision‐making, the ways to implement federal legislation, and the redistribution of resources. There are, despite of “equi‐functional” structures, considerable similarities in the functioning of both countries. The predominance of a completely different discourse of justification in both countries explains the institutional and procedural differences and thus the different reform projects.