From discourse to policy: US policy communities’ perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, a diverse set of policy communities, including those with defence, development and environmental mandates, frame climate change as a security threat. Most often this discursive formation labels climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’. This framing, however, is vague, linear and leaves many questions unanswered regarding how institutions can develop and implement policy that addresses the joint challenges of climate change, conflict and security. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, and grounding data collection in US policy communities, this article examines how policy actors and institutions integrate climate-security discourses into policy processes. The objective of this research is to provide direct insight into how the discourses and technical understandings of climate-security transition into policy priorities and implementation realities. This research identified three common approaches to climate-security: (1) A challenge of adaptation and resilience; (2) A potent political argument; and (3) An issue of limited importance and feasibility. These approaches, however, are inconsistent across sectors and within organisations, suggesting a lack of cohesion and considerable challenges in identifying and responding to climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’.     

Is social change fundable? NGOs and theories and practices of social change

Northern NGOs have come under critical scrutiny since the 1990s, often with negative conclusions as organisations which had supported radical social change in the 1970s and 1980s have since turned themselves into a professionalised and bureaucratic aid sector. The article focuses on the Northern NGOs that purport to fund progressive social change and which encourage beneficiaries to question market and political power, and on the NGOs to which they channel funds in Latin America. After examining various types of critique, the article asks whether it is not only dangerous in practice to fund social change but also misguided in principle, or whether there remain ways to use resources to enhance the capacity of local change agents to make the choices that they deem appropriate. It concludes that much depends on the theory and practice of social change that underpin the resource transfer, particularly in relation to the transformation of power (as opposed to ‘empowerment’), to social activism, and to the robustness of efforts within NGOs to resist or modify bureaucratic imperatives from back-donors.     

Russian military strategies in the Arctic: change or continuity?

This paper examines the nature of Moscow’s military strategies in the Arctic. It is argued that the roles of military power have radically changed since the Cold War era. According to Russian strategic thinking, instead of being a coercive instrument in a global confrontation between two superpowers and capitalist and socialist systems, now military power has new functions, such as to ascertain Russia's sovereignty over its (not their) exclusive economic zone and continental shelf in the region, protect Moscow’s economic interests in the North, prevent illegal migration and potential terrorist attacks against critical industrial and infrastructural objects, fulfil some dual-use functions (such as search and rescue operations, monitoring air and maritime spaces, providing navigation safety, mitigating natural and man-made catastrophes), help academic community in developing Arctic research, and carry some symbolic functions. These new roles, however, do not preclude military power from fulfilling its traditional functions, such as territorial defence, power projection, deterrence, and containment. Russia’s military modernisation programmes are described. The authors arrive at a conclusion that these programmes do not provoke an arms race or undermine the regional cooperation. To prevent negative security trends, a system of arms control and confidence- and security-building measures should be developed in the region.     

Fundamental change or no change? The process of constitutionalizing Uganda

Formal and informal political institutions in Uganda are examined in order to establish what, and how much has changed since the National Resistance Movement (NRM) led by Yoweri Museveni came to power in 1986. The country's 1995 constitution offers many democratic innovations but it also continues to reflect the informal institution of presidentialism. The presidential tradition has nonetheless changed since Museveni took office: the executive is now more accountable than before. The use of state resources for political legitimation also continues to exist but is no longer a form of outright robbery of the state. Clientelism and ‘affective’ ties constitute a further informal institution. The ‘tribal’ features have become stronger since 1986. The persistence of certain informal institutions is confirmed by reference to recent political discourse in Uganda. Thus the NRM government has built relative stability and peace, which are important for constitutional rule, but is simultaneously undermining stability by politicizing ethnicity as well as by placing severe restrictions on opposition party activities. The informal political institutions in Uganda have changed since 1986, but not in a uni‐directional manner: some changes support constitutional rule, and some impede it.     

Contextualizing change in Turkish foreign policy: the promise of the ‘two-good’ theory

The level of activism in Turkey's foreign policy has reached unprecedented levels during the country's modern history. This increased activism contrasts starkly with Turkey's characteristically traditional status quo orientation evinced during the Cold War. This study aims to establish a theoretical foundation to explain this multifaceted change in Turkish foreign policy. In doing so, it contends that the ‘two-good’ theory of foreign policy renders considerable analytical leverage for contextualizing recent changes in Turkish foreign policy. The theory posits that change in a country's foreign policy is contingent upon its willingness and capability to actively promote its interests. Furthermore, the ‘two-good’ theory postulates the method a country might employ to implement its foreign policy is a function of these two factors as well. The theory leads to two testable hypotheses regarding Turkish foreign policy. This study supports these hypotheses with qualitative and quantitative evidence.     

Irish newspaper coverage of NGOs,legitimacy and accountability: what relevance for NGOs?

Based on a quantitative content analysis of Irish Times newspaper articles, this study investigates how Irish relief and development NGOs were linked with the concepts of legitimacy and accountability in newspaper coverage between 1994 and 2009. Key findings included that NGO accountability received more coverage than NGO legitimacy, and “principal-agent” approaches to NGO accountability received more coverage than “stakeholder” approaches. Employing the media theories of agenda-setting and priming, one can infer that Irish Times readers might be more likely to evaluate Irish NGOs in terms of accountability than legitimacy and to consider NGO accountability in principal-agent rather than stakeholder terms.     

Japan's cautious new activism in the Middle East: a qualitative change or more of the same?

This article analyses Japanese policy towards the Middle Eastin the post-Cold War era. The article argues that Japanese policyhas begun to move beyond the reactive diplomacy of the ColdWar years. The focus of this new approach has been Japan's growingcontribution to ‘soft’ security in the region. However,Japan retains a tendency to focus on its narrow interests withoutfully taking into account the broader strategic consequencesof its policies. Yet, in order to protect its overall interestsin the region, Japan needs to recognize the diminishing utilityof this ‘free rider’ approach and adopt a more activerole regarding ‘hard’ security issues. Even allowingfor the domestic constraints on Japanese policy, there is muchJapan can do in this regard, especially in coordination withthe US.     

Accountability or “Good Decisions”? The Competing Goals of Civil Society Participation in International Governance

Civil society participation in international and European governance is often promoted as a remedy to its much-lamented democratic deficit. We argue in this paper that this claim needs refinement because civil society participation may serve two quite different purposes: it may either enhance the democratic accountability of intergovernmental organisations and regimes, or the epistemic quality of rules and decisions made within them. In comparing the European Union and World Trade Organization (WTO) in the field of biotechnology regulation we find that many participatory procedures officially are geared towards the epistemic quality of regulatory decisions. In practice, however, these procedures provide little space for epistemic deliberation. Nevertheless, they often lead to enhanced transparency and hence improve the accountability of governance. We also find evidence confirming findings from the literature that the different roles assigned to civil society organisations as “watchdogs” and “deliberators” are at times difficult to reconcile. Our conclusion is that we need to acknowledge potential trade-offs between the two democratising functions of civil society participation and should be careful not to exaggerate our demands on civil society organisations.     

Incrementalism and change in the domestic distribution of U.S. foreign policy expenditures†

Incrementalism is a term frequently used to describe budgetary processes, with high inter‐annual correlations between expenditures in time t and t+1 interpreted as the empirical manifestation of incrementalism. However, focusing on inter‐annual correlations may well obscure meaningful variations in the amount of the total budgetary pie received by various geographical units. A preferable alternative from a substantive viewpoint would be to focus on proportionate changes in budgetary receipts. The purpose of this brief article is to illustrate these points using data on the domestic distribution of U.S. foreign policy expenditures among states and congressional districts in Fiscal Years 1971 and 1972.     

Agricultural cooperatives in Gujarat,India: Agents of equity or differentiation?

Agricultural cooperatives have been promoted in India's economic development programme as a means of encouraging large-scale agricultural production while enhancing community cooperation and equity. Focusing on sugar cooperatives in Gujarat state of western India, the author shows that these cooperatives have been successful in promoting large-scale agricultural production and in improving the economic and social standing of their members. This success, however, has been built upon the exploitation and pauperisation of local landless communities and migrant labourers. As a result, there has been an increased differentiation of the peasantry in south Gujarat.     

Spoiler or facilitator of democratization?: Russia's role in Georgia and Ukraine

In the post-Soviet space, Georgia and Ukraine are broadly perceived as exceptions to the growing authoritarianism in the region owing to the far-reaching political changes triggered by the so-called Colour Revolutions a decade ago. This article examines Russia's reaction to political changes in Georgia and Ukraine in light of the interplay between the democracy-promotion policies implemented by the EU and US and domestic patterns of democratization. We argue that despite the relatively weak impact of EU and US policies vis-à-vis domestic structures, Russia has responded harshly to (what it perceives as) a Western expansionist agenda in pursuit of reasserting its own hegemonic position in the post-Soviet space. However, coercive pressure from Russia has also unintended, counterproductive effects. We argue that the pressure has actually made Georgia and Ukraine more determined to pursue their pro-Western orientation and has spawned democratization, thereby supporting the objectives of the Western democracy promoters.     

A recurring anarchy? The emergence of climate change as a threat to international peace and security

Robert Kaplan's 1994 article, ‘The Coming Anarchy’ was a milestone in the literature on the links between environmental change and security. The article predicted that disease, corruption, overpopulation, scarce resources and climate change would plunge West Africa into pervasive conflict. Nearly a decade and a half—and several civil wars—later this article returns to West Africa to see to what extent Kaplan's predictions have come to pass. While West Africa may not have followed exactly the trajectory that Kaplan foresaw, he did correctly predict that climate change would be recognised as a threat to international security. This paper reviews in greater detail the development of conceptualisations of environment and security that influence current discussions over the potential impacts of climate change on security, paying particular attention to the ways in which West Africa is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.