卡特政府与伊朗巴列维国王的倒台

伊朗巴列维国王在第二次世界大战后美伊亲密关系建立和发展过程中起到举足轻重的作用.不过到20世纪70年代后期,巴列维的独裁统治陷入严重危机.1977年入主白宫的卡特起初并没有意识到伊朗局势的严重性,所以仍把巴列维国王视为唯一可以稳定伊朗的国家领导人.随着伊朗危机的日益加剧,伊朗国王的地位摇摇欲坠,对此,美国各部门围绕对伊朗政策产生激烈纷争,并最终坐视巴列维国王倒台.美伊长达近30年的友好关系也宣布终结.     

After Sarajevo: Explaining the Blank Check

This paper uses an incomplete information game model to describe and explain the so-called blank check issued to Austria by Germany in early July 1914. It asks why Germany would cede control of an important aspect of its foreign policy to another lesser power. The derived explanation is consistent not only with the actual beliefs of German and Austrian leaders but also with an equilibrium prediction of the game model. The issue of whether unconditional German support of Austria constituted either a necessary or a sufficient condition for the outbreak of major power war the next month is also addressed.     

试析日本安倍政府在美伊间的调停外交

自2018年5月美国退出伊核协议后,美伊关系持续紧张,导致中东局势动荡不定。对此,日本安倍政府基于保障日本的能源安全和经济利益、提高日本国际声誉与推动国内修宪进程等多重战略考量,决定在美伊间开展调停外交。美伊两国对调停者的需求、伊朗对日本的信任以及欧洲国家调停者身份的削弱,也为安倍政府实施调停外交提供了可行条件。安倍政府调停外交的实施路径主要包括日伊首脑互访、日伊高层会谈、日美密切沟通以及游说中东国家等,但其成效受到日本自身局限性、美伊矛盾复杂性、调停策略表面性、调停进程不确定性等因素制约,难以促使美伊关系得到实质性缓和。     

杜特尔特时期美菲防务合作的调整及其局限

In 2016 and 2017 respectively,new governments of the Philippines and the United States took office,which initiated a change in the development of their bilateral relations.Although the US-Philippines alliance has since then returned to normal conditions and defense cooperation has continued to strengthen,policy reorientations and adjustments by the Trump administration have stirred up uncertainties among the Filipinos concerning the ties between the two countries.Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte came to power with the slogan of change.His foreign policy sought to actively close the rift in the relations with China,which were severely damaged by the South China Sea arbitration case.While tightening US-Philippines defense cooperation,he also took active steps to diversify cooperation partners.In recent years,a number of new features have been added to the US-Philippines defense cooperation,which not only reflects the characteristics and trends of the advancement of the US Indo-Pacific strategy,but also has important implications for China and its efforts to maintain overall peace and stability in the neighboring areas and to further enhance China-Philippines relations.     

The DPRK Nuclear Issue during the Obama Administration

The recent deterioration of the DPRK nuclear issue has plunged the regional situation in Northeast Asia into the most severe ＂nuclear crisis＂ in the past 20 years. Apart from the adjustment of nuclear strategy by the DPRK to secure national security through possessing nuclear weapons, the lack of definite objective and strategic imperative on the part of the United States is also an important factor leading to the constant worsening of the nuclear situation.     

杜特尔特时期美菲防务合作的调整及其局限

菲律宾总统杜特尔特执政之后,美菲防务合作有了新的发展。经历了初期的"短暂疏离",美菲防务关系实现了"质"与"量"齐升,双边军事演习出现多边化苗头。这既是因为菲律宾自身亟待加强防务能力,需要得到美国支持,也与菲律宾国内亲美的民意基础和美国总统特朗普不再强烈指责菲律宾人权问题有关。然而,美国对菲律宾安全和经济支持难及预期,美菲在南海问题等关键安全议题上存在分歧,菲律宾继续寻求外交多元化,诸如此类制约因素有可能致使美菲防务合作深化发展出现反复。     

中国特色的伊朗学入门著作——《列国志·伊朗》读后感

一伊朗学是国际学术界的一门显学,根据第二届伊朗学全国代表大会(2004年12月20~23日在德黑兰由伊朗学基金会主办)上的学术会议分工,伊朗学应包括伊朗文学、伊朗经济、伊朗考古学、伊朗历史(含伊朗历史地理学和地方史)、伊朗科学和教育史、伊朗语言及语言学、伊朗民族文化及人类     

Beyond the barriers: new forms of labour internationalism

Concern about working conditions in a global supply chain has led unions and NGOs in the North to collaborate on initiatives such as the Clean Clothes Campaign (CCC) and the Ethical Trade Initiative (ETI) in the UK. Relationships have not always been easy, but experience has shown that when trade unions and NGOs work together on particular disputes or campaigns, their differences tend to disappear. These new forms of labour internationalism offer an effective response to the threat to workers' rights posed by globalised production.     

美国与伊朗关系研究的新作——读范鸿达博士的《美国与伊朗:曾经的亲密》

随着阿富汗塔利班、伊拉克萨达姆政权的相继倒台和国际“反恐”斗争的不断深入,早被美国列为“邪恶轴心”的伊朗被推到国际政治斗争的前沿,尤其是当今伊朗核危机局势的持续紧张,使美国与伊朗的关系再次成为国际社会关注的焦点。其实,在伊朗巴列维国王时期(1941~1979年),美国和伊朗还保持着非常密切的双边关系,伊朗是美国十分倚重的地区重要盟友,而美国则是伊朗独立和安全的重要保证。针对这一时期美伊关系,国内虽然不乏有论文发表,但是缺乏系统的研究成果,可喜的是,这一不足随着范鸿达博士著的《美国与伊朗:曾经的亲密》一书(社会科学文献出…     

Beyond norms: the incomplete de-securitisation of the Russian counterterrorism frame

This article analyses the tentative de-securitising move of the Russian counterterrorism frame under Medvedev’s presidency. It suggests that de-securitisation involves a normalisation process that articulates three main points: terrorism as a result of internal troubles, counterterrorism seen as a “positive process” and Islam not being stigmatised. It nevertheless shows that this process remains far from complete, given the embedding of framing into cultural and normative contexts that make security, integrity and sovereignty leading norms. On the contrary, the ambiguities that shape framing entail a (re-)securitisation of social and societal issues that were not previously directly related to the root causes of terrorism.     

Reaching Beyond the Ivory Tower: A How To Manual

Many scholars are drawn to political science research with hopes that their ideas will influence important policy debates. Unfortunately, scholars who want to shape policy often do not design research appropriately or take advantage of available conditions and opportunities to advance their ideas. This article identifies the conditions under which ideas of academics—and nongovernment knowledge in general—are more likely to be considered by and influence those in the policy world. To reach beyond the ivory tower, we argue that scholars should design research that might produce actionable findings and recommendations, identify moments of ripeness in policy debates, and inject their ideas into the policy process. For those who want to conduct rigorous academic scholarship and influence real-world debates, we provide the strongest possible encouragement and hope that our advice proves helpful.     

法属时期越南华人的商业地位

从１９世纪后半叶 ,法国资本家对越南的入侵和扩张迅速促进了包括华人资本家在内的私人资本经营活动的发展。法国资本家一开始就认识到华商在越南商场上的优势和经验 ,并与他们进行合作 ,利用他们作为法国资本家和本地消费者进行贸易的中介媒介。通过和法国人做生意 ,华商不仅获得了很大的利润 ,而且还学会了很多新的技术和资本主义的经营方式。在此基础上 ,华商开始投资发展一些属于加工制造业、碾米厂、食品加工和家具木器等新的经营领域。虽然如此 ,商贸活动仍然是华人主要经济活动的优势和特长。一、国内贸易法国殖民者在印支确立统治制…     

超越两分法:女性主义国际关系理论的前途

女性主义国际关系理论为国际关系学的发展做出了重大贡献。遗憾的是,近二十年的发展依然没有使其摆脱国际关系学边缘的地位。本文从两分法的批判出发,探讨女性主义兴起的根源,由此阐述女性主义国际关系理论的议程、困境和重构之路。本文认为,女性主义者与传统理论学者之间不正常的争论及女性主义理论在经验论、立场论和方法论上的悖论是女性主义国际关系理论长期处于边缘的两大原因。女性主义者未能超越两分法逻辑,不得不寻求理论的重构之路。     

International Administration Between the Wars: A Reappraisal

This article traces the chronology of the interwar decline of European influence and power, arguing that its origins outside Europe are to be found as much in the paradoxical status of international administration of colonial and post-colonial areas as in the direct challenges posed to European stability by revisionist states in the early 1930s. It demonstrates that an inherent ambivalence toward the interwar colonial world and its relationship to Europe presaged and conditioned the collapse of Europe's own balance of power.     

Beyond the Thomas–Kilmann Model: Into Extreme Conflict

This article discusses an extension to the Thomas–Kilmann conflict mode instrument (Thomas and Kilmann 1977) designed specifically for conflict situations in which strong negative emotional relationships are at play. The Thomas–Kilmann (TK) model is widely used to help participants (disputants and mediators) identify how two basic conflict characteristics interact to influence how stakeholders shape their actions with regard to their interests. Essentially the TK Model is built on the premise that the two salient conflict variables are the relative importance of the relationships at hand and the substantive issues being discussed. These variables are illustrated with a simple matrix that shows how each party will interact with the other based on the relative importance it places on these variables. Graphically illustrating where the behaviors fall on the matrix can explicate parties' behaviors to add a new perspective that may change the dynamic of the conflict. But the TK Model does not address scenarios in which individuals have very negative or destructive relationships, and sabotage, blocking, and exclusion are behavioral norms. Hence, we developed the Baumoel–Trippe (BT) Extension to the TK Model to address the highly negative and often identity‐based conflicts that are often found in the world of family business. Accordingly, the BT Extension to the TK Model explores conflicts in which the relationships are not merely unimportant or uncooperative, but where they become negative to downright vengeful. There is so much at stake for family business stakeholders that the family relationships may become so adversarial that the very business and family harmony all parties value are at risk. With our extension of the TK Model, we seek to provide insight into how decisions might be made when stakeholders are in highly negative, conflictual relationships.     

越南共产党加强执政建设

越共“十大”将于2006年上半年举行,筹备工作已基本就绪。越共九届中央第十三次全体会议于2006年1月18日结束,进一步完善了越共九届中央向越共“十大”作的政治报告草案等文件,同时会议对越共“十大”的人事问题作了重要安排,确定了会议的任务和议程,明确越共“十大”的主题是: