西方国家放宽经济制裁背景下的缅甸经济发展前景

西方国家对缅甸实施长期经济制裁,深刻影响了缅甸的经济发展.2011年3月,缅甸新政府执政以来,采取了一系列政治经济改革举措,得到国际社会普遍认可,也促使西方国家放宽对缅甸的经济制裁.在此背景下,缅甸未来经济发展潜力巨大,但也面临诸多问题和挑战.     

东亚国家跨区域双边FTA的多样化动机分析

从东亚国家双边FTA伙伴选择的范围来看,伙伴国不属于本地区的的情况在大大增加。以中国、日本、韩国、新加坡和东盟为例,展现东亚各国区域FTA和跨区域FTA并行发展的现实。跨区域FTA政策动机包括经济动机、安全和外交动机和平衡动机,而每一种动机又有自己的具体内涵。跨区域FTA的发动已经内化为东亚经济一体化的一个组成部分,对东亚区域经济一体化格局和进程带来实质性的影响。为最大化我国的综合利益,应尽早明确中国的跨区域FTA战略。     

西方国家对巴基斯坦伊斯兰宗教学校的指责、原因及巴基斯坦的应对

“9·11”事件以来,反恐战争背景下的美国及其西方盟友对于巴基斯坦伊斯兰宗教学校的指责声日益上升：宗教学校沦为恐怖组织、培养恐怖分子、资助恐怖组织以及传播极端主义思想。本文分析西方国家对巴基斯坦伊斯兰宗教学校的歪曲与污蔑,探讨其原因和动机并展望巴基斯坦伊斯兰宗教学校的前景。     

俄与欧盟关系中的能源因素

俄罗斯经济加入世界经济一体化的进程 ,在很大程度上取决于其与欧盟的相互关系。欧盟既是俄的贸易伙伴 ,也是俄经济的主要投资者和信贷者。目前 ,能源合作已成为俄罗斯与欧盟贸易往来的最主要方面。对于欧盟来说 ,天然气比煤、石油、电能等能源更具竞争力     

The political economy of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: a US perspective

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), signed in February 2016, is the most ambitious free trade deal of the postwar era. The 12 TPP countries account for nearly 40 percent of the world's economy. Coupled with the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership—which is still being negotiated between the United States and the European Union—the TPP represents an attempt by the Obama Administration to lead in promoting regional trade and investment arrangements despite the failure of the Doha Round to reach a comprehensive global trade deal under the auspices of the World Trade Organization. Although the agreement among the 12 TPP countries has been reached, ratification by their legislatures is pending. Ratification by the US Congress remains uncertain due to complex economic and political factors in the United States, including the presidential election of 2016.     

日本强震及核危机对世界经济的影响分析

地震、海啸、核安全问题接连发生,日本正在经历史上罕见的"大创伤"。强震、海啸、核危机对日本经济的负面冲击明显大于阪神地震。日本地震后的灾后重建与阪神地震时的财政环境明显不同,地震提高了日本政府的违约风险和隐含的主权债务风险。但对世界经济整体而言,日本大地震不会影响全球经济复苏的步伐。虽然全球股市企稳回升,但"核阴云"笼罩亚太、大宗商品呈现先抑后扬的态势,加之受利比亚战争及发达国家的量化宽松货币政策等外围因素影响,日本大地震使全球金融市场未来面临诸多不确定性。日本地震对中国经济影响有限,灾后重建对我国出口及产业发展带来有利契机。     

The return of the empire? Russia's counteraction to transatlantic democracy promotion in its near abroad

Russia's recent actions in its neighbourhood have not only upset Western policies but have also reinvigorated arguments that Russia may be promoting autocracy to counteract democracy promotion by the European Union and the United States. They have also underlined a broader problem: that of how illiberal powers may react to democracy promotion, especially when their strategic interests are at stake. This article investigates these issues by studying Russia's interactions with the countries in its neighbourhood and democracy promoters. First, the article argues that even if Russia has contributed to the stagnation of democratization and ineffectiveness of democracy promotion in its neighbourhood, its actions do not constitute autocracy promotion and largely lack ideological underpinnings. Second, Russia's counteraction to democracy promotion stems from its ambitions of restoring its great power status, maintaining its regional influence, and perceiving Western policies as a threat to its interests. Third, when it considers its strategic interests undermined, Russia employs economic and military threats (sometimes incentives) against its neighbourhood countries to make the compliance with Western policies less preferable.     

European‐Atlantic Security Institutions: Current state and future prospects

Since the turn of the millennium, scholars and pundits have been musing over the decline of the West. The disappointing US military invasions in Afghanistan and Iraq, together with the subprime mortgage crisis, seem to be evidence of an abrupt end to America's ‘unipolar’ moment. In Europe, the sovereign debt crisis has amplified Europe's long-term structural economic problems and laid bare the fragile institutional foundation on which the Economic and Monetary Union was built. At the same time, the BRICs and other emerging economies have been growing at unprecedented rates. Those same analysts see a ‘decoupling’ in the world economy: the developing economies pulling the world out of recession, while the advanced industrial economies are unable to solve their domestic difficulties. So to them, the events of the past five years signify the beginning of the end of Western influence, eventually leading to a more complete rebalancing of the world economy's current ‘Western’ system of governance. This article argues instead that the West still has a significant edge when it comes to most critical factors that determine long-term economic growth potential, including technology, innovative capacity, research and development, investment climate and education. Furthermore, the transatlantic economy is less vulnerable than the rest of the world to outside economic shocks and might eventually prove more capable of reform than many expect. The current malaise in the transatlantic community might therefore prove once again to be more cyclical than structural. Relying on linear projections, many are ‘crying wolf’ again, too loud and too soon.     

Democracy promotion and the challenges of illiberal regional powers: introduction to the special issue

This special issue examines Western efforts at democracy promotion, reactions by illiberal challengers and regional powers, and political and societal conditions in target states. We argue that Western powers are not unequivocally committed to the promotion of democracy and human rights, while non-democratic regional powers cannot simply be described as “autocracy supporters”. This article introduces the special issue. First, illiberal regional powers are likely to respond to Western efforts at democracy promotion in third countries if they perceive challenges to their geostrategic interests in the region or to the survival of their regime. Second, Western democracy promoters react to countervailing policies by illiberal regimes if they prioritize democracy and human rights goals over stability and security goals which depends in turn on their perception of the situation in the target countries and their overall relationships to the non-democratic regional powers. Third, the effects on the ground mostly depend on the domestic configuration of forces. Western democracy promoters are likely to empower liberal groups in the target countries, while countervailing efforts by non-democratic regional powers will empower illiberal groups. In some cases, though, countervailing efforts by illiberal regimes have the counterintuitive effect of fostering democracy by strengthening democratic elites and civil society.     

尼泊尔投资环境及中尼经贸现状分析

尼泊尔是我国的友好邻邦,经济发展较为落后,同时也正因为如此,尼泊尔对我国希望进军南亚的企业来说是个巨大市场。中尼之间经济具有较大的互补性,双边经贸合作存在较大的发展空间。本文主要介绍尼泊尔的贸易管理制度和投资管理制度以及中尼经贸合作的现状和影响双边经贸合作的因素等,供有关部门和企业参考。     

浅析西方对俄白联盟发展的影响

苏联解体后 ,俄白两国关系发展顺利。自 1996年两国开始联盟进程至今 ,已近 7年有余。俄白联盟框架下的俄白经济、军事一体化建设已经取得了不小的成果 ,但很多不利因素导致俄白联盟发展很不稳定。这其中有俄白经济发展水平不齐、政治、历史等客观因素 ,但更多的阻力是来自西方及其扶持的俄白反对派政治力量。本文认为 ,尽管西方及其追随者对俄白联盟发展的负面影响很大 ,但俄白联盟仍有较大发展余地。     

印度对欧经贸关系浅析

印度独立后十分重视发展与欧洲国家的关系。上世纪90年代后,双方的关系得到了极大的提升,建立了一系列的合作机制,如印欧首脑会议和印欧工商高峰会议等,在第五届印欧首脑会议上,双方还确立了建立战略性伙伴关系的目标。目前,欧盟是印度最大的贸易伙伴,2004年,印度和欧盟双边贸易额达到了历史性的332亿欧元。虽然双方的合作仍有不少的制约因素,但双方的合作前景相当广阔。     

欧盟对中亚战略浅析

2007年,欧盟出台了《中亚战略文件》,确立了欧盟与中亚5国之间的战略伙伴关系,把欧盟对中亚战略作为欧盟总体外交、全球战略、大邻国战略的重要组成部分。欧盟在政治、经济、安全和文化方面与中亚国家进行全面合作。边界安全、能源管线建设以及欧亚交通大通道的建设是欧盟与中亚国家合作的主要领域。欧盟对中亚战略实施的成功与否对欧盟作为全球行为体的地位和作用将是一个重要的衡量指标和考验。     

New Changes in the International Situation and China's Strategic Choices

The international situation is evolving more impressively than it has at any time since the end of the Cold War.Globalization has been in decline.Nations are scrambling to gain greater influence.The international strategic pattern is being adjusted.Many countries have problems with public management,and are faced with a new array of social trends and increasingly popular movements.The world is entering a new era full of chaos and anxiety.Mankind once again faces significant trade-offs and choices in peace and conflict,development and recession,openness and isolation,liberalism and conservatism.China strives to advocate win-win cooperation and lead the trend of reform and opening to maintain a favorable external environment despite world chaos,and enhance status and institutional rights in the international system.China's 30 years of development was successful in the process of integrating into the existing international system;China is a participant as well as a builder of the international system,rather than a challenger or a subversive.In the future,with a constructive attitude,China will promote the international system in a more reasonable direction together with international partners,in order to better safeguard world peace and security,and promote sustainable development throughout the world.     

新普京时代的俄欧关系走势分析

不出大的意外,未来10年普京都将主政俄罗斯。这也是俄罗斯重新崛起的关键时期。对于俄罗斯而言,无论是现代化战略的实施,还是世界大国地位和影响力的重塑,俄欧战略伙伴关系都至关重要。显然,对于一向重视俄欧关系的普京而言,欧洲仍将是俄罗斯外交的优先方向。但考虑到一系列结构性矛盾和分歧的存在,俄欧关系仍难以迈出实质性步伐。