Can contingency be ‘internalized’ into the bounds of theory? Critical realism,the philosophy of internal relations and the solution of ‘uneven and combined development’

Can general mechanisms governing social life (necessity) and the possibility of multiple outcomes in socio-historical processes (contingency) be incorporated into a single theoretical framework? In recent years, the critical realist philosophy of science has emerged as an intellectual strand within international relations (IR) that makes theoretical claims about necessary social processes while recognizing the irreducible role of contingency. However, critical realist scholars treat contingency as an ‘externality’, thereby declining to theorize social processes that result in contingent outcomes. Here, it is argued that contingency emerges out of the combination of events and processes as theorized by the law of uneven and combined development. This provides a general conceptualization that treats differentiated historical outcomes, and their contingencies, as inherent to human development. Out of these assumptions a workable approach to historical sociology in IR can be developed—one predicated upon uncovering the form of historical ‘combination’, the contingent fusion of elements, in international systems.     

Methodological nationalism and the domestic analogy: classical resources for their critique

The critique of methodological nationalism arose in the 1970s in sociology, but it only gained salience with the rise of globalization theory in the late 1990s. This article argues that in International Relations the discussion of the so-called ‘domestic analogy’ is closely connected to the one on methodological nationalism as they equally point to the substantive problem of understanding the nation state's position in modernity. The first section of this article revisits the three waves of the debate on methodological nationalism in sociology. The second part connects this with the discussion in IR on the domestic analogy. The last section brings the two disciplinary strands together by suggesting that social theory's claim to universalism is a fundamental resource to theorize current global processes beyond methodological nationalism and the domestic analogy. But for us to do so, we still have to unpack social theory's ambivalent relationship with the natural law tradition.     

Crisis ideology and the articulation of fascism in interwar Japan: the 1938 Thought-War Symposium

In early 1938, the newly formed Cabinet Information Division (Naikaku jōhōbu) held a closed-door Thought-War Symposium (Shisōsen kōshūkai) in Tokyo with over 100 bureaucrats, military officers, media executives and academics in attendance. While the ostensible purpose of the symposium was to discuss propaganda following Japan's full-scale invasion of China in July of 1937, the presentations had very little to do with the practical coordination of information. Rather, the symposium participants brought their specific areas of expertise to bear on elaborating the curious term ‘thought war’ (shisōsen), a term that had only recently been used with any regularity but which had become invested with critical urgency following the invasion of China.

In the conventional literature, the term ‘thought war’ is understood as marking a new modality of state propaganda as Japan moved towards a total war system. However, this reading overlooks the ideological investments in thought war discourse, as well as how ‘thought war’ inherited a multivalent sense of crisis that had crystallized around thought and culture earlier in the 1930s. In this article, I explore how the 1938 symposium reveals a combined sense of historical crisis and an urgent call for the total overhaul of Japanese state and society, a combination which, I argue, underwrote the development of fascism in Japan. I trace how three earlier discourses of crisis – the ‘Manchurian Problem’, the ‘thought problem’ and the ‘movement to clarify the kokutai’ – converged within thought war discourse, thus investing it with fascist urgency.     

Assessing the historical turn in IR: an anatomy of second wave historical sociology

This article reassesses what is at stake in the historical turn in international relations (IR) and the attendant debate between the Second Wave of neo-Weberian historical sociology (WHS) and Political Marxism (PM). Firstly, it endeavours to recast what is at stake in the ‘historical turn’ in IR: the critique of reification and chronocentrism. Secondly, it examines WHS's argument against reductionism in the light of Weber's own work. We show how the Weberian dualism between the politics and the economics inhibits its capacity to complete its project of historicizing IR. Finally, it explains why recent Weberian's defence of multicausalism creates even more obstacles on the road towards an ontologically consistent historical turn.     

The uses and misuses of uneven and combined development: an anatomy of a concept

A central concern of much contemporary Marxist scholarship in international relations (IR) is to internally relate global capitalism and the state system without reducing one of these systems to an epiphenomenon of the other. A recent attempt at this is Justin Rosenberg's reformulation of Leon Trotsky's idea of uneven and combined development (U&CD). This article examines the internal relations of ‘unevenness’ and ‘combination’ as presented by Trotsky and reworked by Rosenberg. From this anatomization of the concept, we focus on the problematic status of U&CD as a transhistorical general abstraction arising from the exchange between Callinicos and Rosenberg (Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 22:1 2008, 77–112) and suggest our own possible solution. We argue that while the uneven and combined nature of historical development represents a truly transhistorical phenomenon, its distinct causal determinations, articulated and expressed through inter-societal competition, are only fully activated under the specific socio-historical conditions of generalized commodity production. These theoretical points are illuminated through three specific historical examples (the Meiji Restoration, the ‘Eastern Question’ and the origins of the two World Wars). Finally, we illustrate some of the dangers of analytical overextension found in Rosenberg's own ambiguous use of U&CD.     

Bipolarity redux: the mimetic context of the ‘new wars’

This article challenges the theorem of non-polarity in international relations theory by employing ‘mimetic theory’, a notion associated with the French anthropologist René Girard. The article argues that non-polarity is a distorted visual effect that conceals the actual polar configurations in global politics. So-called ‘new wars’ are seemingly asymmetrical and are said to mobilize fronts ‘on the basis of identity’. However, on closer inspection new wars appear to be shaped by underlying mimetic forces, whereby the contenders behave like ‘doubles’, each reflecting its own image in the wishes and actions of the other. The article picks up and develops a clue from political theorist Herfried Münkler, that the Israeli/Palestinian conflict is a miniature copy ‘of global political line-ups’. The conflict is placed here in its mimetic context, and implications for political theory and the theory of international relations are drawn.     

Methodological debate in poverty studies: towards ‘participatory qual–quant’?

Compared with the divisive views of the past, integrative thinking has recently come to characterise the methodological debate on poverty. ‘Qualitative vs quantitative’ has given way to ‘qual–quant’; ‘cross-disciplinarity’ has replaced ‘economics vs anthropology’. This article attempts to review this change. It begins with a historical overview of the pure economic approach to poverty and its critique. The critique, both from within economics and from the participatory and anthropological disciplines, is examined, and recent trends are considered. The current ‘qual–quant’ approach is illustrated with examples, and the author concludes that the future may well see the emergence of a ‘participatory qual–quant’ approach.     

‘Provincializing’ critical theory: Islam,Sikhism and international relations theory

This article will attempt to ‘provincialize’ or ‘decentre’ critical theory by looking at the development of critical discourses from within the Islamic and Sikh religious traditions. Although important theological, philosophical and historical differences exist between the two communities, Islamic and Sikh narratives share a rejection of the subordination of the religious to the political and thus potentially challenge the Westphalian order. However, in the case of the Sikh Qaum, no clear distinction between ‘nation’ and ‘religion’ is possible given the strong attachment to a territorially defined ancestral homeland. This article suggests that both critical Islamic and Sikh discourses, particularly those emanating from the diaspora, are potentially compatible with the ‘discourse ethics’ of critical theory. This is, however, conditional on the recognition of the universality of their beliefs, a position incompatible with the ‘thin’ cosmopolitanism of critical theory.     

The Islamic challenge in North Africa

This article analyzes and compares the growth of Islamist movements and regime responses in the three core Maghrib states — Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. In spite of the many points of commonality and their geographical proximity, the particular sociopolitical and historical circumstances of each of the three states have varied widely, producing a different state‐society/regime‐opposition dynamic in each case, resulting in very different political outcomes. Algeria has been, and remains, in many ways, sui generis in the Arab world. Consequently, even if the Islamists do eventually come to power there, one should avoid adopting any simplistic Islamic ‘domino theory’ for the region.     

Surveillance to Combat Terrorist Financing in Europe: Whose Liberty,Whose Security?

Abstract

This article analyses recent developments in the campaign to combat terrorist financing in Europe and questions the utility of financial surveillance as a method to counter terrorism. A background presentation of surveillance in modern society is followed by an overview of earlier international initiatives to interdict money laundering. The measures used to combat terrorist finance are built upon this foundation of surveillance and criminal investigation. Applying these measures in the ‘war on terror’ has unintended consequences for the financial transactions of citizens and non-citizens alike. The article concludes by considering these problems and their impact on society within the context of a larger concern for the impact to individual liberty from these surveillance practices in pursuit of security in the early twenty-first century.     

Media and tutor-learner interaction in distance education

SUMMARY

Technological developments in recent years have provided greater scope in the selection and combination of media for presenting courses in distance education. This article explores the uses and limitations of a number of ‘old’ and ‘new’ media in distance education from the perspective of their educational and communication advantages. The main emphasis is not on technological developments, but on the potential of various media to create a greater degree of interaction between tutor and student than has previously been possible through traditional media such as print and audio-visual media.     

Re-visioning the “Eye in the Sky”: targeted drone strikes and an ethics of the encounter

ABSTRACT

The complexities which beset any attempts to ascribe a foundational ethic to matters of a political stripe are well known, and continue to provoke fierce debate within studies of international relations, geopolitics and security studies. Unsurprisingly, these questions have taken on crucial import within the sub-field of critical terrorism studies (CTS), as authors grapple with the range of counter-terrorism, counter-radicalisation and counter-extremism practices enacted by the Western state as part of an ongoing ‘War on Terror.’ And while much of this scholarship has been invaluable in problematizing the concept of ‘terrorism’ per se, normative questions have proven somewhat more elusive. Through a reading of the film Eye in the Sky, along with its take on the controversial counter-terrorism practice of targeted drone assassinations, this article reiterates the case for an ethical approach which takes radical difference as the basis for any engagement with the Other. Moreover, and following international relations authors of a poststructuralist lineage, it will be argued that supplementing Levinasian ethics with Derridean deconstruction can open up new and useful ways of approaching such seemingly intractable ethical conundrums.     

Lobbying business interests in Russia

Our article examines business lobbying in contemporary Russia within the wider context of lobbying in the decision‐making system overall. It is argued that, although lobbies were an important part of the old Soviet system, the defence of corporate interests was held within ‘natural’ limits by an overriding concern to maintain the established consensus ‐ in the form of a bureaucratic corporatist economy. In the perestroika and post‐perestroika years, however, lobbies themselves took front stage becoming the decisive element in the economy. Easily the most important, in terms of economic strength and political influence, were the various business interest groups, which we have attempted to classify according to their lobbying potential and the channels of influence available to them. The peculiarities of business interest lobbying are also considered, including the as yet unsatisfied quest for political representation, the tendency for management and employees to ‘row together’, the huge potential of uncontrollable lobbying ‘from below’ in the face of growing social tensions and, finally, the disparity between lobbying and other forms of state‐society relations.     

The uneven and combined development of class forces: migration as combined development

One of the more interesting and potentially powerful developments within Marxist approaches to the field of international relations has been the recent revival of Trotsky’s concept of uneven and combined development (UCD). However, it appears that there have been very few attempts within this literature to specify in concrete terms what is meant by mechanisms of ‘combination’. Failing this, UCD runs the risk of falling into triviality. To this end, this article suggests that migration has historically functioned as a crucial element of combined development, contributing to the uneven incorporation of non-capitalist societies into the remit of a developing world capitalist market. As illustration, I take settler-colonial development and the Great Atlantic Migrations as my focal point, drawing out a comparative study of Argentine and Canadian wheat production in the late nineteenth century. In positing these migrations as mechanisms of combined development I suggest that such were the means by which both European capitalism developed extensively and intensively and New World societies were subjected to the ‘pressures of backwardness’, compelled to transform their own social relations of production.     

Monitoring and evaluating advocacy: lessons from Oxfam GB's Climate Change campaign

This article examines Oxfam GB's learning from its attempts to improve monitoring and evaluation (M&E) processes within a global advocacy campaign. It outlines the Climate Change campaign team's practical experience of piloting different approaches to M&E, and the lessons emerging from the process. The experience suggests that while some ‘traditional’ elements of M&E are helpful in advocacy work, a greater focus on light, real-time monitoring systems is necessary. The findings highlight the organisational as well as methodological challenges of integrating M&E into advocacy campaigns: without a culture that rewards reflection and learning, improvements in staff capacities or data-collection systems will not be sustained. Indeed, the process of improving M&E practice mirrors that of an advocacy campaign itself, requiring analysis of power relations, opportunities, and constraints; monitoring of progress; and adapting plans on the basis of on-going learning. Finally, the article suggests possible ways forward, based on experience.     

Introduction: the accountability function of the courts in new democracies

Much of the literature on ‘democratic consolidation’ has adopted a forward‐looking, future‐oriented perspective. Rather than studying past regimes, it tries to assess the life expectancies of contemporary ’third wave’ democracies. The article contends that authors have usually been unaware of the methodological complexities this choice of time perspective involves. If we want to reach reasonable judgements about the chances of democratic survival in a given country we have to be conscious of the probabilistic nature of such a prospective exercise. And we have to make (and justify) some basic analytical decisions. We have to explain the time horizons we are adopting as well as the future conditions we are assuming. We have to make clear how we construct the binary opposition between ‘consolidated’ and ‘non‐consolidated’ democracies. We have to decide whose expectations of democratic stability we take into account. And we have to cope with conflicting and unstable perceptions. Unless we ‘consolidologists’ heed these methodological ground rules, it is unlikely that we will ever reach shared judgements, or else, intelligible disagreements, about empirical states of democratic consolidation.     

Basic problems in the theory of uneven and combined development. Part II: unevenness and political multiplicity

Where does ‘the international’ come from? What accounts for its existence as a dimension of the human world? This article attempts an answer, in three steps, using the idea of ‘uneven and combined development’ (U&CD). First, a depth model is constructed, comparing different ways of linking uneven development with international relations. Thus far, it turns out, these ways have all presupposed the fact of political multiplicity, rather than explaining it. In search of explanation, the article turns, secondly, to the compelling historical sociological argument of Barry Buzan and Richard Little. This locates the origins of geopolitics in the late prehistoric shift from hunter-gatherer to settled agricultural existence, together with associated processes of social differentiation and proto-state formation. Buzan and Little's explanation appears at first to pre-empt the need for the concept of U&CD. Yet closer inspection reveals that unevenness and combination play a key role in their empirical account without, however, being theorized. The third step of the argument therefore seeks to show how these are necessary parts of the process of social change which Buzan and Little describe. And in this way it emerges that the origins of ‘the international’ do indeed lie in the uneven and combined character of historical development.     

The changing ‘logics’ of capitalist competition

This article criticizes contemporary attempts within the Marxist tradition to understand the current juncture of international relations in terms of either a return to classical Marxist theories of inter-imperial rivalry or ultra-imperialism. It argues instead to put the debate on a new theoretical footing that is able to capture the rich diversity of international relations and permutations of territorial orders within the entire history of capitalism since its inception in 17^th-century England. It argues specifically that the system of multiple states and capitalism, rather than being causally co-emergent and co-constitutive, have historically different origins. Since the latter emerged within the former, their interrelation is not structurally determined by any ‘logic of capital’ per se or by a ‘logic of anarchy’ (or by their intersection). Rather, profound variations in capitalist international orders result from the contested construction of diverse projects of territorialization by historically situated capitalist classes and states. They are neither subject to an evolutionary long-term logic of globalization and global state-formation, nor to a recurring logic of inter-imperial rivalry, but far exceed the limits of these narrow options.     

War,liberalism, and modernity: the biopolitical provocations of ‘Empire’

The relationships between war, liberalism and modernity remain heavily under‐theorised within international relations. Existing critiques emphasise the ways in which the developments of liberal societies have been facilitated by the deployment of instrumental forms of force and violence in the extension and control of spaces beyond the boundaries of the zone of ‘liberal peace’. Yet, the ordinary functioning of liberal societies themselves can also be understood in terms of the roles of war. This article utilises ideas derived from Michel Foucault and Antonio Negri to advance our understanding of the ways in which liberal powers pursue security through the creation of what this author terms a logistical order of relations between the subjects that they govern. Simultaneously, the strategisation of social relations within liberal societies fosters the development of new forms of antagonistic subjectivities that contest the logistical foundations of liberal societies. This dual set of developments poses problematic questions as to how we should understand the relationships between the organisation of liberal societies and the forms of resistance that emerge in their midst. As the author details, these questions are made all the more pressing by the current context of the War on Terror.     

Madness,mystery and abnormality in the writing of Yumeno Kyūsaku

Yumeno Kyūsaku (1889–1936) has been labeled a writer of henkaku detective fiction since submitting his debut story, ‘Ayakashi no tsuzumi’ (‘The demonic hand drum’), to Shinseinen magazine for a competition in 1926. The term henkaku is rooted in the historical context of the 1920s and 1930s as a modifier of a subgenre of mystery fiction that eschewed puzzle-solving in favor of gothic atmospheres and strange happenings. This article considers the relationship between henkaku and gendered, early twentieth-century discourses of hentai (abnormality). Transitioning from an early emphasis on ‘abnormal sexology’ to ‘abnormal psychology’, Kyūsaku used the affective potential of visceral henkaku narratives to not only entertain readers, but to shock them into an examination of their own psyches and the limits of modern, rational thought. Kyūsaku's skepticism toward the ‘isms’ of his day resonated with a new audience, bringing the spirit of henkaku into the post-Second World War period when his works were rediscovered in the context of 1960s sub- and counter-culture.