The Northern Ireland Peace Process in an Age of Austerity

The steady drip of dissident Republican attacks forms the backdrop to this special issue of Political Quarterly. Moreover, this comes at a time of economic austerity, when Northern Ireland faces unprecedented cuts to its public sector‐dominated economy. The economic crisis in the South adds an additional layer of uncertainty to the picture. In the past, economic deprivation has been associated with conflict in Northern Ireland and elsewhere. Might the peace dividend and constitutional settlement which have underpinned the Northern Ireland ‘miracle’ since 1994 be under threat? Or is there now sufficient momentum in both of Northern Ireland's main ethnic communities that such an outcome can be safely averted? This paper summarises the thinking of our symposium and special issue on this topic, updating our picture of the Northern Ireland peace process.     

The Media in Northern Ireland: A Stormont Correspondent's View

During the troubles, the role of a Northern Ireland correspondent evolved from ambulance chaser to peace process ‘Kremlinologist’, keeping an eye on the subtle shifts within the political negotiations. Now the interest of the international media has waned and reporters have to generate fresh stories relevant to the local audience, against the backdrop of an adverse economic climate. Some stories may be Northern Ireland specific, dealing with the legacy of the troubles. Others involve economic and social issues common to other areas of the UK or Ireland. Knowledge of the conflict remains a prerequisite for covering Stormont politics, dissident republican attacks, or loyalist violence. However journalists should be mindful of the concerns of a younger generation who increasingly regard the paramilitary ceasefires and peace deals as history.     

Freedom,Peace and Politics: Crick and Northern Ireland

Intimately throughout the 1970s, and in a more detached way for the rest of his life, Bernard Crick thought seriously about the politics of Northern Ireland. Though he produced no systematic study of the Northern Ireland Question, and though at first glance Northern Ireland appeared to be unpropitious territory for the author of In Defence of Politics, his reflections illuminated a deep concern with the relationship between politics, freedom and peace. This article argues that Crick's writing on the subject constitutes a sustained appeal for a ‘realism of pragmatic potential’ in contrast to that despairing ‘realism of impossible certainty’ which, he felt, frustrated hopes for political progress.     

Social Class and Party Choice in Northern Ireland's Ethnic Blocs

The peace process in Northern Ireland has not diminished the acute ethnic electoral faultline between the majority Protestant British population, supportive of parties favouring Northern Ireland's continuing place in the United Kingdom and the minority Catholic Nationalist population, which backs parties harbouring long-term ambitions for a united Ireland. Within each bloc, however, there has been a dramatic realignment in favour of parties once seen as extreme and militant. The Democratic Unionist Party has emerged as the main representative of the Protestant British population, whilst Sinn Fein, having for many years supported the Provisional IRA's ‘armed struggle’ against British rule, has become the dominant party amongst Catholic Nationalists. As both parties have entered the political mainstream and advanced electorally, to what extent have they moved from their electoral near-confinement among the working class to enjoy broader cross-class support – and how?     

Brexit and Strand Three of the 1998 Agreement: The Three Faces of East-West

Under Strand Three of the 1998 Belfast ‘Good Friday’ Agreement, institutions were set up to promote the ‘harmonious and mutually beneficial development’ of the ‘totality of relationships’ between the peoples and governments of Ireland and the UK, including its devolved administrations and Crown Dependencies. According to the text of the 1998 Agreement this ‘east-west’ dimension was to have two elements with corresponding institutions: an intergovernmental one reflected in the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIC) and an interjurisdictional one reflected in the British-Irish Council (BIC). These Strand Three institutions were designed to provide fora for, respectively, intergovernmental cooperation on ‘non-devolved Northern Ireland matters’ in the case of the BIIC and information exchange and cooperation ‘on matters of mutual interest within the competence of the relevant Administrations’ in the case of the BIC. Nowhere in the 1998 Agreement text is the concept of ‘east-west’ used to refer to relations between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Yet, in the wake of Brexit, and in the midst of controversy over the implications of the Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland, relations between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (GB–NI) have been newly framed as ‘east-west’. The creation of this new discursive face of ‘east-west’ relations marks an important, but little discussed, impact of Brexit on the political and constitutional landscape of the UK and Ireland. Against this backdrop, this article considers the impacts of Brexit, and the Protocol, on three faces of ‘east-west’ relations—the BIIC, the BIC and, newly, GB–NI—and discusses their implications for the future of Strand 3 institutions and the ‘totality of relationships’ they represent.     

To settle for a gendered peace? Spaces for feminist grassroots mobilization in Northern Ireland and Bosnia-Herzegovina

This paper offers an examination of citizenship in the context of post-conflict transformation as an important scenario in which to investigate the possibilities for the inclusion of women and women’s demands in the transition to peace. Drawing on interview and ethnographic data collected in Northern Ireland and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the paper highlights a site of tension between the aspirations for transformation and inclusion set out internationally in UNSCR 1325 and the gender underpinnings of consociationalism that shape the broader political, social and cultural context of citizenship in these case studies. It illustrates that women and women’s claims are repeatedly side-lined in favour of matters that are deemed of more vital interest in the quest for ‘peace’, such as relations between ethno-national groups, security concerns and stability of institutions. Despite this damning failure, women and feminist activists continue to mobilise, as individuals and collectively, in order to make demands for social, political and cultural transformation. The paper argues that attending to these dynamics is crucial if we strive to transform the gender regimes underpinning war/peace and acknowledge women as agents in this process.     

Security: Missing from the Northern Ireland Model

The Northern Ireland model is best defined as the framing of the political endgame of Northern Ireland’s conflict culminating in the 1998 Belfast Agreement, otherwise known as the Good Friday Agreement. The Northern Ireland model is popularly portrayed as a negotiated settlement. It focuses primarily on the bargain reached by Northern Irish political parties, assisted by British and Irish governments and mediated by US senator George Mitchell. Academics and officials alike use it to explain how the “Troubles” ended and peace was achieved. Conspicuously absent from this model is security. It also grossly understates the difficulty in dealing with a modern insurgency (the Provisionals) and leans too heavily toward skewed post-conflict thinking that views insurgents as “peacemakers” prevented from making peace because of a manifestly poor security response, particularly that of the police force and its intelligence agency (Special Branch). The perspective of politicians and diplomats who brokered the peace settlement prioritizes political negotiations at the expense of the security response; in so doing, the role of security is undermined and overlooked. Most contemporary academic works promote this outlook. Excluding security, however, thwarts a comprehensive analysis of the Northern Ireland conflict and renders any examination partial and unrepresentative. There is therefore a significant intellectual gap in our understanding of how peace was achieved, which this article redresses. Ultimately, it questions the Northern Ireland model’s capacity to assist in other relevant conflict contexts in any practical sense by arguing that a strategy where security pushed as politics pulled brought about peace. In other words, security played a crucial part because it forced the main protagonists into a situation out of which the Belfast Agreement emerged.     

That Awkward Region: Writing and Advising on the History of Northern Ireland

The history of Northern Ireland poses two particular challenges for the political historian. First, histories of the region are inextricably bound up with contemporary political positions: historical time becomes distorted as histories are refracted through the lens of modern political controversies. Second, the importance of historical ‘memory’ to contemporary politics leaves little room for doubt, uncertainty or academic expertise. The past is assumed to be known; what place is there for academic historians when politicians and many members of the public are so invested in their own readings of the past? This article explores these challenges through two case studies in which the author was involved: the Historical Advisory Panel established by the UK government for the centenary of Northern Ireland; and subsequent debates around the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. It illustrates the difficult relationship between academic, public and politicised histories, and considers the lessons for historians whose expertise places them at the interface of those different ‘pasts’.     

‘A Pleasingly Blank Canvas’: Urban Regeneration in Northern Ireland and the Case of Titanic Quarter

The ongoing development of Titanic Quarter in Belfast, Northern Ireland, has already made significant changes to the area. The site on which the Titanic was built has been redeveloped as an area for tourism, business, education and the creative industries. The site has been developed following a significant inflow of private capital, and with the additional support of local government and public finance. This article outlines how economic and political forces have coalesced in Belfast to the point that the violent period of the ‘Troubles’ in Northern Ireland can be said to have created a ‘pleasingly blank canvas for regeneration’.     

The Media,the Peace Dividend and ‘Bread and Butter’ Politics

In December 2007, Northern Ireland's newly elected First and Deputy First Ministers, Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness, were pictured sitting happily together on a read leather sofa at the new IKEA superstore in Belfast. It was an image that served as a powerful symbol of the region's political transformation and economic optimism. Yet, within months of this photo opportunity, global financial crisis and economic recession shattered hopes that a meaningful, economic ‘peace dividend’ would underpin the new political dispensation. This article takes a critical look at the media's role in conflict transformation in Northern Ireland; how they projected new and more positive images of life in the region and chronicled the daily business of ‘bread and butter politics’. However, it also identifies chronic decline among some sections of the regional media, particularly Belfast's daily newspapers, just when they are needed to monitor and debate political decision‐making in a time of austerity.     

The Anglo‐Irish Agreement: 25 Years On

This article examines the surprisingly muted commemoration of the 25th anniversary of the Anglo‐Irish Agreement. It was surprising because not only was the Agreement a major innovation in relations between the two states but it was also the defining political issue in Northern Ireland for almost a decade. It is argued that the significance of the Agreement has been diminished because of retrospective narratives which serve the political convenience of the key parties to the Northern Ireland conflict. The article adapts Oakeshott's notion of the ‘dry wall’ to re‐assess and to re‐state the Agreement's place in recent history.     

Political Skills or Lying and Manipulation? The Choreography of the Northern Ireland Peace Process

The 'real war' and 'propaganda war' fought over Northern Ireland for thirty years polarised party and public opinion. The key dilemma faced by politicians during the recent peace process has been how to wind down the 'war' and win sufficient party and public support for an accommodation between unionists and nationalists which falls so far short of previous expectations. Scripts telling contrasting stories have been prepared to convince rival republican and unionist audiences to support the peace process. In addition, the pro-Agreement parties have attempted to shift opinion towards accommodation through a range of political skills and choreography. Key competing parties and governments have sometimes co-operated back stage while front stage they have on occasion 'play acted' conflict between each other. The political skills, or lying and manipulation, by which the peace process has been driven forward have been uncovered creating public distrust in the political process. Realists see such political deception as an inevitable part of politics and permissible on the grounds that the ends justify the means. Absolutists attack the 'spin, lying and manipulation' of the peace process as an assault on democracy. A third democratic realist position argues that sometimes moral leadership requires doing wrong to do right but the gap between 'truth' and 'spin' should be narrowed. A more open and honest politics would not only be more accountable and democratic but also effective in advancing the peace process.     

The single transferable vote and ethnic conflict: The evidence from Northern Ireland

There has been a long-running debate amongst constitutional engineers between those who favour the proportional representation of parties (usually via PR-Closed List systems) and post-election power-sharing (Lijphart) and those who favour attempting to induce pre-election inter-ethnic ‘vote-pooling’ (Horowitz) as a more effective and stable method of governing divided societies. Less attention has been paid to the fact that other options are available. A leading candidate amongst these is the Single Transferable Vote (STV), a non-categorical ordinal ballot system that may be capable of combining the essential ‘fairness’ of proportionality with the centripetal benefits of some inter-ethnic vote-pooling. Northern Ireland is the only divided society with extensive experience of STV elections. This paper examines the empirical evidence before and after the 1998 Belfast Agreement by examining the operation of the electoral system at the Northern Ireland Assembly elections of 1982, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The main findings are that prior to the 1998 Agreement inter-ethnic vote-pooling in Northern Ireland was very close to zero. Afterwards (1998–2007) terminal transfers from the moderate unionist UUP to the moderate nationalist SDLP averaged 32 per cent (and 13 per cent in the opposite direction). Although most transfers clearly remain within ethnic blocs, these inter-ethnic terminal transfers are a change with the past and suggest that STV may be an appropriate electoral system choice for some divided societies.     

Mapping the Nexus of Transitional Justice and Peacebuilding

ABSTRACT

This article explores the convergences and divergence between transitional justice and peacebuilding, by considering some of the recent developments in scholarship and practice. It examines the notion of ‘peace’ in transitional justice and the idea of ‘justice’ in peacebuilding. It highlights that transitional justice and peacebuilding often engage with similar or related ideas, though the scholarship in each field has developed largely in parallel to each other, and often without any significant engagement between the fields of inquiry. The article also notes that both fields share other commonalities, insofar as they often neglect questions of capital (political, social, economic) and at times, gender. It is suggested that trying to locate the nexus in the first place draws attention to where peace and justice have actually got to be produced in order for there not to be conflict and violence. This in turn demonstrates that locally, ‘peace’ and ‘justice’ do not always look like the ‘peace’ and ‘justice’ drawn up by international donors and peacebuilders; and, despite the ‘turn to the local’ in international relations, it is surprising just how many local and everyday dynamics are (dis)missed as sources of peace and justice, or potential avenues of addressing the past.     

Cutting with the Grain: Human Rights,Conflict Transformation and the Urban Planning System—Lessons from Northern Ireland

This article examines how the urban planning system in Northern Ireland served to concentrate segregation and systemic inequalities during the course of the recent conflict. Using documents recently uncovered from the Northern Ireland Public Record Office (PRONI), this article will show how the security forces ‘cut with the grain’ of a planning system that had historically been predicated upon segregation and exclusion in order to better control and manage politically motivated violence leaving a divided city in which systemic inequalities have been built into the fabric of the urban environment. Drawing on developments within regulatory theory this article will outline a way forward for creating an integrated post-conflict planning agenda for Belfast that takes account of the limits of traditional forms of legalism and adds learning to the debate around the relationship between systemic inequalities and the process of conflict transformation.     

‘You will be responsible to the GOC’. Stovepiping and the problem of divergent intelligence gathering networks in Northern Ireland, 1969–1975

From the beginning of Northern Ireland’s Troubles, two different strands of British intelligence were developed in Northern Ireland that failed to effectively cooperate or coordinate their efforts with one another. Though central government was aware (and often opposed) the lack of singular control over intelligence in the province, they were unable to wrest control of security intelligence from the hands of the Army and Special Branch. This problem, meant that a Security intelligence ‘stovepipe’ emerged and that this stovepipe operated without reference (and at times in opposition) to policy initiatives also being pursued by the UK government at the time.     

Economic Aid: The End of Phase II and the Impact on Sustainable Peacebuilding in Northern Ireland

Abstract

Economic aid has been a critical component of the peace process in Northern Ireland allowing for community-based interventions, employment, social inclusion and regional stability. With the second round of funding coming to a close this essay explores the thoughts and perceptions of civil servants, fund administrators and community group leaders in Derry, Belfast and the Border Area to consider peoples reflections on the outcome of funding, concerns for the future once funding ends, what vital work is still needed and what strategies exist to continue the work of peace after the cessation of Phase II.     

The Future of Irish-UK Relations: Borders and Identities after Brexit: Introduction

It is apparent that the consociational framework established by the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (B/GFA) is under threat, while the UK's withdrawal from the EU poses major challenges for maintaining peace, prosperity and social cohesion in Northern Ireland (NI). The contributions to this special collection examine key elements of the post-Brexit reality, with a particular focus on NI and the future of the intergovernmental bodies established by the B/GFA. The implications of the UK government's attempt unilaterally to disapply parts of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland are examined.     

Beyond Unionism versus Nationalism: the Rise of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has always been a polity noted for its strong links between national identity, religion, and voting, and acute British unionist versus Irish nationalist divisions. The constitutional question of whether Northern Ireland should be part of the UK or a united Ireland dominates. Yet, recent surveys have suggested a sizeable and growing section of its electorate declares itself neither unionist nor nationalist. This development may have assisted the growth of the centrist Alliance Party, which rejects unionist and nationalist identities and claims to be neutral on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Alliance doubled its vote across three elections in 2019 and is now the third largest party in the region. This article examines the importance of ideological dealignment relative to other factors, such as Alliance’s opposition to Brexit, in explaining the rise of a non-binary party in a divided society.