The Gains of Greater Granularity: The Presence and Persistence of Problem Properties in Urban Neighborhoods

Objectives

This study applies the growing emphasis on micro-places to the analysis of addresses, assessing the presence and persistence of “problem properties” with elevated levels of crime and disorder. It evaluates what insights this additional detail offers beyond the analysis of neighborhoods and street segments.

Methods

We used over 2,000,000 geocoded emergency and non-emergency requests received by the City of Boston’s 911 and 311 systems from 2011–2013 to calculate six indices of violent crime, physical disorder, and social disorder for all addresses (n = 123,265). We linked addresses to their street segment (n = 13,767) and census tract (n = 178), creating a three-level hierarchy that enabled a series of multilevel Poisson hierarchical models.

Results

Less than 1% of addresses generated 25% of reports of crime and disorder. Across indices, 95–99% of variance was at the address level, though there was significant clustering at the street segment and neighborhood levels. Models with lag predictors found that levels of crime and disorder persisted across years for all outcomes at all three geographic levels, with stronger effects at higher geographic levels. Distinctively, ~15% of addresses generated crime or disorder in one year and not in the other.

Conclusions

The analysis suggests new opportunities for both the criminology of place and the management of public safety in considering addresses in conjunction with higher-order geographies. We explore directions for empirical work including the further experimentation with and evaluation of law enforcement policies targeting problem properties.

     

A quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of bike-sharing stations on micro-level robbery occurrence

Objectives

To examine if the implementation of bike-sharing stations is linked to robbery occurrence in micro-level street corner units in Cincinnati, OH, USA.

Methods

Propensity score matching was used to select comparison street corner units. The effect of bike-sharing station implementation on robbery occurrence across weekly, biweekly, and monthly observations was estimated using repeated measures multi-level logistic regression models.

Results

Bike-sharing stations did not statistically significantly link to robbery occurrence in immediate or nearby street corner units after implementation.

Conclusions

Numerous explanations consistent with Crime Pattern Theory may explain the null effect of bike-sharing stations on robbery occurrence. Future research should continue to examine how changes in the urban backcloth, such as bike-sharing stations, impact geographic crime patterns.

     

Examining the Relationship Between the Structural Characteristics of Place and Crime by Imputing Census Block Data in Street Segments: Is the Pain Worth the Gain?

Objective

The current study proposes unique methods for apportioning existing census data in blocks to street segments and examines the effects of structural characteristics of street segments on crime. Also, this study tests if the effects of structural characteristics of street segments are similar with or distinct from those of blocks.

Methods

This study compiled a unique dataset in which block-level structural characteristics are apportioned to street segments utilizing the 2010 U.S. Census data of the cities of Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Huntington Beach in Orange County, California. Negative binomial regression models predicting crime that include measures of social disorganization and criminal opportunities in street segments and blocks were estimated.

Results

The results show that whereas some of the coefficients tested at the street segment level are similar to those aggregated to blocks, a few were quite different (most notably, racial/ethnic heterogeneity). Additional analyses confirm that the imputation methods are generally valid compared to data actually collected at the street segment level.

Conclusions

The results from the street segment models suggest that the structural characteristics from social disorganization and criminal opportunities theories at street segments may operate as crucial settings for crime. Also the results indicate that structural characteristics have generally similar effects on crime in street segments and blocks, yet have some distinct effects at the street segment level that may not be observable when looking at the block level. Such differences underscore the necessity of serious consideration of the issues of level of aggregation and unit of analysis when examining the structural characteristics-crime nexus.

     

Place and Punishment: The Spatial Context of Mass Incarceration

Objectives

Research on race and urban poverty views incarceration as a new and important aspect of social disadvantage in inner-city neighborhoods. However, in quantitative studies of the spatial distribution of imprisonment across neighborhoods, the pattern outside urban areas has not been examined. This paper offers a unique analysis of disaggregated prison admissions and investigates the spatial concentrations and levels of admissions for the entire state of Massachusetts.

Methods

Spatial regressions estimate census tract-level prison admission rates in relation to racial demographics, social and economic disadvantage, arrest rates, and violent crime; an analysis of outlier neighborhoods examines the surprisingly high admission rates in small cities.

Findings

Regression analysis yields three findings. First, incarceration is highly spatially concentrated: census tracts covering 15% of the state’s population account for half of all prison admissions. Second, across urban and non-urban areas, incarceration is strongly related to concentrated disadvantage and the share of the black population, even after controlling for arrest and crime rates. Third, the analysis shows admission rates in small urban satellite cities and suburbs comprise the highest rates in the sample and far exceed model predictions.

Conclusion

Mass incarceration emerged not just to manage distinctively urban social problems but was characteristic of a broader mode of governance evident in communities often far-removed from deep inner-city poverty. These notably high levels and concentrations in small cities should be accounted for when developing theories of concentrated disadvantage or policies designed to ameliorate the impacts of mass incarceration on communities.

     

Neighborhood Disadvantage and Neuropsychological Functioning as Part Mediators of the Race–Antisocial Relationship: A Serial Mediation Model

Objectives

We test a serial multiple mediation model in which the relationship between ethnicity and antisocial behavior is sequentially mediated by disadvantaged neighborhoods and impaired neuropsychological functioning.

Methods

Parental and self-report measures of antisocial behavior were assessed in a community sample of 341 adolescent males and females. Neighborhood disadvantage was assessed from census data. Neuropsychological functioning was evaluated using a computerized battery. Separate serial multiple mediation models were tested using non-executive functioning and executive functioning.

Results

The serial mediation model for executive functioning was supported, with the pathway from race to antisocial behavior through neighborhood disadvantage and executive functioning in serial accounting for 10.8% of the total effect of race on antisocial behavior.

Conclusions

Findings support social neurocriminology theory by integrating neighborhood disadvantage and executive functioning as sequential mediators of the race–antisocial relationship. To our knowledge, these are the first findings to explain the race–antisocial relationship in terms of connected social and neuropsychological processes. While this pathway is significant, the effect is still relatively small and thus should be understood as one of many mechanisms through which race may affect antisocial behavior. From a translational science standpoint, the identification of neurocognitive mechanisms by which neighborhood disadvantage predisposes to antisocial behavior suggests the potential benefits of cognitive enhancement techniques to remediate the negative effects of adverse neighborhoods on brain functioning in at-risk minority groups.

     

Violence in Urban Neighborhoods: A Longitudinal Study of Collective Efficacy and Violent Crime

Objectives

Cross-sectional studies consistently find that neighborhoods with higher levels of collective efficacy experience fewer social problems. Particularly robust is the relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime, which holds regardless of the socio-structural conditions of neighborhoods. Yet due to the limited availability of neighborhood panel data, the temporal relationship between neighborhood structure, collective efficacy and crime is less well understood.

Methods

In this paper, we provide an empirical test of the collective efficacy-crime association over time by bringing together multiple waves of survey and census data and counts of violent crime incident data collected across 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Utilizing three different longitudinal models that make different assumptions about the temporal nature of these relationships, we examine the reciprocal relationships between neighborhood features and collective efficacy with violent crime. We also consider the spatial embeddedness of these neighborhood characteristics and their association with collective efficacy and the concentration of violence longitudinally.

Results

Notably, our findings reveal no direct relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime over time. However, we find a strong reciprocal relationship between collective efficacy and disadvantage and between disadvantage and violence, indicating an indirect relationship between collective efficacy and violence.

Conclusions

The null direct effects for collective efficacy on crime in a longitudinal design suggest that this relationship may not be as straightforward as presumed in the literature. More longitudinal research is needed to understand the dynamics of disadvantage, collective efficacy, and violence in neighborhoods.

     

Where the Action is in Crime? An Examination of Variability of Crime Across Different Spatial Units in The Hague, 2001–2009

Objectives

To identify how much of the variability of crime in a city can be attributed to micro (street segment), meso (neighborhood), and macro (district) levels of geography. We define the extent to which different levels of geography are important in understanding the crime problem within cities and how those relationships change over time.

Methods

Data are police recorded crime events for the period 2001–2009. More than 400,000 crime events are geocoded to about 15,000 street segments, nested within 114 neighborhoods, in turn nested within 44 districts. Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients are used to describe the crime concentration at the three spatial levels. Linear mixed models with random slopes of time are used to estimate the variance attributed to each level.

Results

About 58–69 % of the variability of crime can be attributed to street segments, with most of the remaining variability at the district level. Our findings suggest that micro geographic units are key to understanding the crime problem and that the neighborhood does not add significantly beyond what is learned at the micro and macro levels. While the total number of crime events declines over time, the importance of street segments increases over time.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that micro geographic units are key to understanding the variability of crime within cities—despite the fact that they have received little criminological focus so far. Moreover, our results raise a strong challenge to recent focus on such meso geographic units as census block groups.

     

The Trajectories of Crime at Places: Understanding the Patterns of Disaggregated Crime Types

Objectives

Investigate the spatial concentrations and the stability of trajectories for disaggregated crime types on street segments and intersections in Vancouver, Canada.

Methods

A longitudinal analysis of 16 years of crime data using street segments and intersections as the units of analysis. We use the k-means non-parametric cluster analysis technique considering eight crime types: assault, burglary, robbery, theft, theft of vehicle, theft from vehicle, other, and total crime.

Results

The overall results for the individual crime types versus overall crime are similar: crime is highly concentrated regardless of crime type, most street segment and intersection trajectories are stable over time with the others decreasing, and most decreasing trajectories are in the same general areas. However, there are notable differences across crime types that need to be considered when attempting to understand spatial pattern changes and implement crime prevention initiatives.

Conclusions

The law of crime concentration at places holds in Vancouver, Canada for disaggregated crime types in the context of spatial concentrations and their stability over time. However, notable differences exist across crime types that should be accounted for when developing theory or policy.

     

The Structure of Citizen Perceptions of Crime and Disorder: New Insights from a Caribbean Community

Objectives

This study builds on existing research from US cities on the construct and discriminant validity of perceptual measures of crime and disorder. It seeks to determine whether citizens distinguish between crime and disorder.

Methods

This study draws on quantitative and qualitative data from a high-crime community in Trinidad and Tobago, a small-island developing nation in the eastern Caribbean. Analysis of the quantitative data relies on exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis methods designed for use with categorical observed variables and continuous latent variables.

Results

In contrast to previous research, we find that citizens do distinguish between physical disorder and general crime, but there is a perceptual overlap for some drug-related offenses and types of social disorder.

Conclusions

This study raises questions about the external validity of research on the relationship between perceptions of crime and disorder conducted in the US, and contributes to ongoing discussions and debates about the meaning of disorder. The findings suggest the need for theory and research to explain how context shapes not only the magnitudes of these perceptions, but also their structures. The results also demonstrate the benefits of mixed-methods research approaches in this area of study.

     

The Role of Immigration: Race/Ethnicity and San Diego Homicides Since 1970

Objectives

The temporal variation in homicide is examined by studying trends in race/ethnic specific killings (e.g. Blacks, Latinos and Whites). Two substantively important issues are also addressed—a closer examination of the role community heterogeneity plays in homicide levels and the treatment of immigration as an endogenous social process.

Methods

Data are reported homicides in the city of San Diego, California over the period 1960–2010. The address of each killing is geocoded into 341 census tracts.

Results

We find that neighborhoods experiencing increases in the foreign-born population tend to be less violent. White and Latino homicide victimization was reduced significantly as a product of increases in the neighborhood concentration of foreign-born individuals. Supplementary analyses did not find empirical evidence that the influx of foreign-born individuals could (or should) be considered a disruptive social process. Over the past five decennial census periods, the exponential increase in immigration in this border city is not associated with an increase in homicide victimization.

Conclusions

When examined through a wider temporal lens than is typically employed, and accounting for the endogeneity of immigrant residential settlement, we find no support for the claims that immigration is a crime generating social process.

     

Neighborhood Social Ties and Shared Expectations for Informal Social Control: Do They Influence Informal Social Control Actions?

Objectives

Social disorganization states that neighborhood social ties and shared expectations for informal social control are necessary for the exercise of informal social control actions. Yet this association is largely assumed rather than empirically examined in the literature. This paper examines the relationship between neighborhood social ties, shared expectations for informal social control and actual parochial and public informal social control actions taken by residents in response to big neighborhood problems.

Methods

Using multi-level logistic regression models, we integrate Australian Bureau of Statistics census data with the Australian Community Capacity Study survey data of 1310 residents reporting 2614 significant neighborhood problems across 148 neighborhoods to examine specific informal social control actions taken by residents when faced with neighborhood problems.

Results

We do not find a relationship between shared expectations for informal social control and residents’ informal social control actions. Individual social ties, however, do lead to an increase in informal social control actions in response to ‘big’ neighborhood problems. Residents with strong ties are more likely to engage in public and parochial informal social control actions than those individuals who lack social ties. Yet individuals living in neighborhoods with high levels of social ties are only moderately more likely to engage in parochial informal social control action than those living in areas where these ties are not present. Shared expectations for informal social control are not associated with the likelihood that residents engage in informal social control actions when faced with a significant neighborhood problem.

Conclusion

Neighborhood social ties and shared expectations for informal social control are not unilaterally necessary for the exercise of informal social control actions. Our results challenge contemporary articulations of social disorganization theory that assume that the availability of neighborhood social ties or expectations for action are associated with residents actually doing something to exercise of informal social control.

     

Retrieving administrative data to assess long-term outcomes: a case study of the 23-year follow-up of the Milwaukee domestic violence experiment

Objectives

To describe how social scientists, criminal justice practitioners, and administrative agencies collected administrative data to follow-up a criminological experiment after two decades. To make recommendations that will guide similar long-term follow-ups.

Methods

A case study approach describes the processes of and sociological benefits to collecting administrative data to assess criminal justice and life-course outcomes.

Results

While maintaining experimental integrity, we developed, executed, and verified processes to retrieve arrest, mortality, and residential data for the experimental subjects, which enabled us to complete the longest ever follow-up of a criminal justice experiment.

Conclusions

When experiments have policy implications, administrative data may be preferable to survey data for assessing primary effects. Successful social science research can be conducted in conjunction with multiple administrative agencies.

     

A meta-analysis update on the effects of early family/parent training programs on antisocial behavior and delinquency

Objective

To update Piquero et al.’s meta-analysis on early family/parent training programs.

Methods

Screening of eligible studies was carried out for the period between January 2008 and August 2015. An additional 23 studies were identified, which were added to the original database of 55 studies, totaling an overall sample of 78 eligible studies. A random-effects model was used to obtain an overall mean effect size estimate. Additional analyses were performed to assess publication bias and moderation.

Results

An overall average, positive, and significant effect size of 0.37 was calculated, which corresponds to 32 out of 100 in a treated group versus 50 out of 100 in a control group who offended. There was some evidence of publication bias and moderation.

Conclusions

Early family/parent training programs are an effective evidence-based strategy for preventing antisocial behavior and delinquency.

     

The Law of Crime Concentration: An Application and Recommendations for Future Research

Objective

We address four outstanding empirical questions related to the “law of crime concentration” (Weisburd in Criminology 53:133–157, 2015): (1) Is the spatial concentration of crime stable over time? (2) Do the same places consistently rank among those with the highest crime counts? (3) How much crime concentration would be observed if crimes were distributed randomly over place? (4) To what degree does the spatial concentration of crime depend on places that are crime free?

Methods

The data are annual counts of violent and property crimes in St. Louis between 2000 and 2014. Temporal stability in the spatial inequality of crime is measured by computing the fraction of crimes that occur in the 5% of street segments with the highest crime frequencies each year. The spatial mobility of crime is measured by computing the number of years each street segment appears in the top 5% of street segments. Poisson simulations are used to estimate the fraction of crimes that could appear in the top 5% of street segments on the basis of chance alone. The impact of crime-free locales on the spatial concentration of crime is evaluated by comparing results from analyses that include and exclude crime-free street segments from the crime distributions.

Results

The concentration of crime is highly unequal and stable over time. The specific street segments with the highest crime frequencies, however, change over time. Nontrivial fractions of street segments may appear among the 5% with the highest crime frequencies on the basis of chance. Spatial concentration of crime is reduced when crime-free street segments are excluded from the crime distributions.

Conclusions

The law of crime concentration is not a measurement artifact. Its substantive significance, however, should be assessed in future longitudinal research that replicates the current study across diverse social settings.

     

Assessing the Validity of the Law of Crime Concentration Across Different Temporal Scales

Objectives

The present study examined if Weisburd’s (Criminology 53(2):133–157, 2015) law of crime concentration held across different theoretically relevant temporal scales.

Methods

The cumulative percentages of Philadelphia, PA USA street blocks and intersections experiencing 25 and 50 % of street robberies by hour of the day, days of the week, and seasons of the year were compared to the bandwidth percentages established by Weisburd (2015). Different analyses were used to determine the stability of the micro-places’ street robbery levels within the three temporal scales.

Results

We found that the cumulative percentages of street blocks and intersections experiencing 25 and 50 % of street robberies at each of the three temporal scales closely matched the bandwidth percentages expected from Weisburd (2015) and some micro-places experienced street robberies across all temporal periods while others had more isolated temporal concentrations.

Conclusion

Weisburd’s (2015) law of crime concentration holds across different theoretically relevant temporal scales, and future criminology of place studies should not ignore temporal crime patterns. Further, it may be possible to refine hot spots policing approaches by incorporating spatial–temporal crime concentrations.

     

The introduction of CCTV and associated changes in heroin purchase and injection settings in Footscray,Victoria, Australia

Objectives

In June 2011, closed-circuit television (CCTV) was introduced in Footscray (a suburb of Melbourne, Australia) to help deter street-based drug trading. We investigate whether there were subsequent shifts in the settings (e.g., street, house) in which heroin was purchased or injected by people who inject drugs (PWID).

Methods

Using heroin purchase data from the Melbourne Injecting Drug User Cohort Study, multinomial logistic models with fixed effects for CCTV introduction were used to estimate the percentage of: (1) heroin purchased on the street, from mobile dealers and in house settings; and (2) heroin injections occurring in street, car, public toilet, and house settings. Displacement effects were investigated with a logistic model capturing the likelihood of traveling to Footscray to purchase heroin.

Results

Following CCTV introduction, the percentage of heroin injections occurring in public toilet settings decreased by 13 % (95 % CI ?27 %, ?0 %). This was accompanied by a non-significant increase in the percentage of heroin injections in street settings of 23 % (95 % CI ?1 %, +41 %). Changes in other settings were small and non-significant. No suburb displacement effects were found.

Conclusions

The introduction of CCTV in Footscray may have displaced PWID who previously injected heroin in public toilets to street settings. Apart from this, Footscray’s street-based heroin market operates much as it did before CCTV.

     

Testing the “Law of Crime Concentration at Place” in a Suburban Setting: Implications for Research and Practice

Objective

To assess whether the “law of crime concentration at place” applies in a non-urban context. We test whether longitudinal trends in crime concentration, stability, and variability apply in a suburban setting.

Methods

We use group-based trajectory analysis to examine trends in recorded crime incidents on street segments in Brooklyn Park, a suburban city outside Minneapolis, Minnesota, over a 15-year period from 2000 to 2014.

Results

Consistent with the law of crime concentration at place, crime in Brooklyn Park is highly concentrated at a small percentage of micro-places. Two percent of street segments produced 50 % of the crime over the study period and 0.4 % of segments produced 25 % of the crime. The patterns of concentration are highly stable over time. However, the concentration of crime is substantially higher and there is much less street-by-street variability in Brooklyn Park compared to urban areas.

Conclusions

We find strong support for the application of the law of crime concentration at place to a non-urban setting, suggesting that place-based policing approaches tested in cities can also be applied to suburbs. However, there are also important differences in the concentration and variability of crime hot spots in suburbs that require further examination. Our study is based on a single setting that may not be representative of other suburban and rural areas. Finally, the clustering of hot spots raises questions about the use of street segments to analyze crime at suburban micro-places.

     

A meta-analysis update on the effectiveness of early self-control improvement programs to improve self-control and reduce delinquency

Objective

To update Piquero et al.’s (Justice Quarterly 27:803–834, 2010) meta-analysis on early self-control improvement programs.

Methods

Screening of eligible studies was carried out for the period between January 2010 and September 2015. An additional seven studies were identified, which were added to the original database of 34 studies, totaling an overall sample of 41 eligible studies. A random effects model was used to obtain an overall mean effect size estimate. Additional analyses were performed to assess publication bias and moderation.

Results

Overall average, positive, and significant effect sizes were observed for improving self-control (0.32) and reducing delinquency (0.27). There was evidence of publication bias for the self-control improvement outcomes, as well as some evidence of moderation for both self-control improvement and delinquency outcomes.

Conclusions

Early self-control improvement programs are an effective evidence-based strategy for improving self-control and reducing delinquency.

     

Different than the Sum of Its Parts: Examining the Unique Impacts of Immigrant Groups on Neighborhood Crime Rates

Objectives

Examining the immigration-crime nexus across neighborhoods in the Southern California metropolitan region, this study builds on existing literature by unpacking immigration and accounting for the rich diversity that exists between immigrant groups.

Methods

Using data from a variety of sources, we capture this diversity with three different approaches, operationalizing immigrant groups by similar racial/ethnic categories, areas or regions of the world that immigrants emigrate from, and where immigrants co-locate once they settle in the U.S. We also account for the heterogeneity of immigrant populations by constructing measures of immigrant heterogeneity based on each of these classifications. We compare these novel approaches with the standard approach, which combines immigrants together through a single measure of percent foreign born.

Results

The results reveal that considerable insights are gained by distinguishing between diverse groups of immigrants. In particular, we find that all three strategies explained neighborhood crime levels better than the traditional approach.

Conclusion

The findings underscore the necessity of disaggregating immigrant groups when exploring the immigration-crime relationship.