Legal, Individual, and Environmental Predictors of Court Disposition in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

Historically, the juvenile court has been expected to consider each youth's distinct rehabilitative needs in the dispositional decision-making process, rather than focusing on legal factors alone. This study examines the extent to which demographic, psychological, contextual, and legal factors, independently predict dispositional outcomes (i.e., probation vs. confinement) within two juvenile court jurisdictions (Philadelphia, Phoenix). The sample consists of 1,355 14- to 18-year-old male and female juvenile offenders adjudicated of a serious criminal offense. Results suggest that legal factors have the strongest influence on disposition in both jurisdictions. For example, a higher number of prior court referrals is associated with an increased likelihood of secure confinement in both jurisdictions. Juveniles adjudicated of violent offenses are more likely to receive secure confinement in Phoenix, but are more likely to be placed on probation in Philadelphia. Race is unrelated to dispositional outcome, but, males are consistently more likely than females to be placed in secure confinement. Importantly, individual factors (e.g., developmental maturity) generally were not powerful independent predictors of disposition. Finally, an examination of the predictors of juvenile versus adult court transfer in Phoenix indicated that males, older juveniles, and those with a violent adjudicated charge were more likely to be transferred to adult court, while juveniles scoring high on responsibility as well as those juveniles with an alcohol dependence diagnosis were more likely to be retained in juvenile court.     

Incarceration and Recidivism among Sexual Offenders

The relationship between incarceration and recidivism was investigated in a sample of 627 adult male sexual offenders. Incarceration for the index offense was unrelated to sexual or violent recidivism. This was the case whether incarceration was examined as a dichotomous variable (incarceration vs. community sentence) or as a continuous variable (length of incarceration). Risk for sexual recidivism was assessed with a modified version of the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism. There was no evidence that the relationship between incarceration and recidivism was confounded or moderated by risk or that length of incarceration and recidivism were non-linearly associated. Sentencing sexual offenders to terms of incarceration appears to have little, if any, impact on sexual and violent recidivism following release.     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

Comparing Gender Across Risk and Recidivism in Nonviolent Offenders

The purpose of this study was to examine whether gender differences exist in the rate, type, and general predictors of recidivism for nonviolent offenders. A total of 328 male and female Texas state jail offenders were matched on current offense, total number of arrests, age, and race. Contrary to previous findings, the results demonstrated no significant gender differences for recidivism rates, although significant gender differences were found for those who had reoffended with property and prostitution offenses. Similar to previous findings, age and total arrests were significant predictors for both male and female offenders. In the current sample, substance abuse was predictive for male offenders only. Although no gender differences were found across the recidivism predictors of static and criminogenic need, the protective factors of positive social support significantly predicted recidivism for female offenders and not male offenders. The current results add to the understanding of gender differences for the assessment, risk prediction, and treatment of offenders.     

Measures Tending to Combat Recidivism Among Women Offenders

[Editor's Note] Traditionally crime has been the domain of males for a number of reasons, chief of which is the fact that they have had more responsibility in both domestic and occupational areas. In the administration of justice differential treatment has been practiced in accordance with age, sex, social status, race, ethnicity, wealth, education, prestige, and other idiosyncrasies of individuals. Females have a distinct advantage over males in the following areas: 1) the public's report to the police; 2) police arrest; 3) the court's sentence; 4) incarceration. There is evidence to show that because of this males not only risk becoming offenders more than females, but also risk becoming victims of that offense.

To cite some examples, in 1972 male arrests outnumbered female by almost six to one in the United States, and only 18 percent of the arrests for Crime Index offenses were women. According to an F.B.I. report approximately 20 per cent of total property crime arrests in 1972 were female. Yet it should be noted that some crimes are committed more by females than by males, such as offenses against chastity and common decency, prostitution, embezzlement and fraud, forgery and counterfeiting, larceny and theft. Recently the F.B.I. reported a rise in female offenses, particularly among those under the age of 18. According to this report, well over half the runaways apprehended are young women.

As a result of a higher educational level among women, more women remaining single due to professional and occupational interests, and the Contemporary Women's Liberation movement, a gradual increase in criminality among women is anticipated, although this is disputed by the French correspondent in the following article who argues for a reverse trend. Yet with more women competing with men in the future and becoming more active politically to achieve equality, crime as a predominantly male pattern of behavior may change.

Crime among women has yet to be thoroughly studied. Some criminologists maintain that female criminality is “masked” or “suggestive” behavior because to a great extent female criminals are hidden or unreported, or in some instances men commit crime on behalf of women. Any meaningful assessment of female criminality must take into account complex physiological, psychological and socio-cultural factors.

The meeting of the International Council of Women in conjunction with the Third United Nations Congress on the Prevention of Crime and the Treatment of Offenders in 1965 marked only a small beginning in the understanding of this segment of criminal behavior. This article deals only with recidivism among women offenders, and readers are advised to discover how other societies treat female criminals. Although several recommendations are made as to how women offenders can best be served, much more research into female criminality must be done before reaching any definite conclusions. Some causal factors paralleled the male counterpart, but before this segment of criminality can be treated effectively, causal elements of a more general nature must first be established. [Source: “Measures Tending to Combat Recidivism Among Women Offenders,” article submitted by the International Council of Women, Standing Committee for Social Welfare to the 3rd United Nations Congress on the Prevention of Crime and the Treatment of Offenders, Stockholm, A/CONF. 26/NGO/2, 4 May 1965.]     

Psychopathy (PCL-R) as a Predictor of Violent Recidivism Among Criminal Offenders with Schizophrenia

Hare's Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) was used to test the hypothesis that psychopathy predicts violent recidivism in a cohort subjected to forensic psychiatric investigation and consisting of male violent offenders with schizophrenia (N = 202). Psychopathy was assessed with retrospective file-based ratings. Mean follow-up time after detainment was 51 months. Twenty-two percent of the offenders had a PCL-R score 26 (cutoff), and the base rate for violent recidivism (reconvictions) during follow-up was 21%. Survival analysis revealed that psychopathy was strongly associated to violent recidivism (log-rank = 17.71, df = 1, p < 0.0001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of PCL-R total score to predict violent recidivism varied between different time frames from .64 to .75. Cox regression analyses revealed that other potential risk factors could not equally well or better explain violent recidivism in the cohort than psychopathy as measured by PCL-R.     

Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders: A Multi-site Study of Static-2002

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.     

Priming Unconscious Racial Stereotypes About Adolescent Offenders

Two studies examined unconscious racial stereotypes of decision makers in the juvenile justice system. Police officers (Experiment 1) and juvenile probation officers (Experiment 2) were subliminally exposed to words related to the category Black or to words neutral with respect to race. In a presumably unrelated task, officers read 2 vignettes about a hypothetical adolescent who allegedly committed either a property crime (shoplifting from a convenience store) or an interpersonal crime (assaulting a peer). The race of the offender was left unstated and the scenarios were ambiguous about the causes of the crime. Respondents rated the hypothetical offender on a number of traits (e.g., hostility and immaturity) and made judgments about culpability, expected recidivism, and deserved punishment. They also completed a self-report measure of conscious attitudes about race. As hypothesized, officers in the racial prime condition reported more negative trait ratings, greater culpability, and expected recidivism, and they endorsed harsher punishment than did officers in the neutral condition. The effects of the racial primes were not moderated by consciously held attitudes about African Americans. The implications of the findings for racial disparity in the juvenile justice system and for changing unconscious stereotypes were discussed.     

Correctional Policy for Offenders with Mental Illness: Creating a New Paradigm for Recidivism Reduction

Offenders with mental illness have attracted substantial attention over the recent years, given their prevalence and poor outcomes. A number of interventions have been developed for this population (e.g., mental health courts). They share an emphasis on one dimension as the source of the problem: mental illness. Their focus on psychiatric services may poorly match the policy goal of reducing recidivism. In this article, we use research to evaluate (a) the effectiveness of current interventions, and (b) the larger viability of psychiatric, criminological, and social psychological models of the link between mental illness and criminal justice involvement. We integrate theory and research to offer a multidimensional conceptual framework that may guide further research and the development of efficient interventions that meaningfully reduce recidivism. We hypothesize that the effect of mental illness on criminal behavior reflects moderated mediation (i.e., the effect is direct in the case of one subgroup, but fully mediated in another); and that the effect of mental illness on other “recidivism” is partially mediated by system bias and stigma. We use this framework to propose three priorities for advancing research, articulating policy, and improving practice.     

Serious Youth Gun Offenders and the Epidemic of Youth Violence in Boston

Boston, like many other major cities, experienced a sudden increase in youth homicides during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Research evidence suggests that the recent epidemic of urban youth violence was intensely concentrated among criminally active young black males residing in disadvantaged urban neighborhoods rather than all young black males residing in disadvantaged black neighborhoods. Other researchers, however, suggest that there was a diffusion of guns and gun violence from youth involved in street crack markets to youth outside the drug trade who armed themselves primarily for self-protection against the armed criminally active youth. In this paper, criminal history data are analyzed to determine whether the criminal profile of Boston arrested youth gun offenders changed over time and micro-level data on youth gun assault incidents in Boston are examined to unravel whether there were noteworthy changes in the nature of these violent events over time. The results of these analyses suggest that the youth violence epidemic in Boston was highly concentrated among serious youth gun offenders rather than a diffusion of guns away from the street drug trade, gangs, and criminally active youth.     

Treatment-Related Changes in Behavioral Outcomes of Psychopathy Facets in Adolescent Offenders

This study examines the association between the facets of psychopathy embedded in the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV; Forth et al., Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version, 2003), and changes in institutional behavior and post-treatment violent and general offending in a sample of juvenile delinquent males treated in the Mendota Juvenile Treatment Center (MJTC), an intensive treatment program. Affective, Interpersonal, Behavioral and Antisocial facet scale scores were calculated from items of the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV; Forth et al., 2003). Data on daily institutional behavior were collected from treatment records. In order to analyze re-offense patterns, the number and type of new criminal charges were collected over a mean follow-up of 54 months (range = 24–79 months), after the youth was released from custody. The Interpersonal facet of the PCL:YV was significantly related to admission behavior problems, while other facet scores were not. Youth with elevated Interpersonal facet scores showed the greatest improvement in institutional behavior during treatment. Treatment was also associated with a significant decrease in general and violent offending for each facet. The Interpersonal facet of the PCL:YV was found to play a key role in institutional and community violence in this study. Treatment appeared to disrupt the link between institutional and community violence and psychopathy features in this population.     

Psychopathy (PCL-R) Predicts Violent Recidivism Among Criminal Offenders with Personality Disorders in Sweden

Psychopathy as conceptualized with Hare's Psychopathy Checklist Revised, PCL-R, has attracted much research during the 1990s. In the Scandinavian countries, few studies that empirically support the validity of North American risk assessment techniques in our regional context have been published. The purpose of this paper is to explore the predictive power of the PCL-R in a population of personality-disordered violent offenders subjected to forensic psychiatric evaluation in Sweden. Following release from prison (n = 172), discharge from forensic psychiatric treatment (n = 129), or probation (n = 51), a total of 352 individuals were followed for up to 8 years (mean = 3.7 years) with reconviction for violent crime as endpoint variable (base rate 34%). As the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic (AUC of ROC) analysis was calculated. For PCL-R scores to predict 2-year violent recidivism, AUC of ROC was .72 (95% CI: .66–.78). In addition, the personality dimension of psychopathy (Factor 1) and the behavioral component (Factor 2) both predicted 2-year recidivism significantly better than random: AUC of ROC .64 (95% CI: .57–.70) and .71 (95% CI: .65–.77), respectively. We conclude that psychopathy is probably as valid a predictor of violent recidivism in Swedish forensic settings as seen in previous North American studies.     

Desistance and Legitimacy: The Impact of Offender Notification Meetings on Recidivism among High Risk Offenders

Legitimacy-based approaches to crime prevention assume that individuals will comply with the law when they believe that the law and its agents are legitimate and act in ways that are “fair” and “just.” Currently, legitimacy-based programs are shown to lower aggregate levels of crime; yet, no study has investigated whether such programs influence individual offending. Using quasi-experimental design and survival analyses, this study evaluates the effectiveness of one such program—Chicago’s Project Safe Neighborhoods’ (PSN) Offender Notification Forums—at reducing individual recidivism among a population of returning prisoners. Results suggest that involvement in PSN significantly reduces the risk of subsequent incarceration and is associated with significantly longer intervals that offenders remain on the street and out of prison. As the first study to provide individual-level evidence promoting legitimacy-based interventions on patterns of individual offending, out study suggests these interventions can and do reduce rates of recidivism.     

Maturity in Adolescent and Young Adult Offenders: The Role of Cognitive Control

This study examined the role of cognitive control in explaining the psychosocial maturity of adolescent (n = 43) and young adult male (n = 40) offenders. We separated psychosocial maturity into prosocial and criminal components, which were statistically unrelated and were explained by different variables. Individuals with higher levels of prosocial maturity were older, had better proactive cognitive control, and had better short-term memory than those with lower levels of prosocial maturity. Individuals with higher levels of criminal maturity were older and had better reactive cognitive control than those with lower levels of criminal maturity. We discuss the implications of these findings with regard to juvenile justice policy and practice.     

A 24-Year Follow-up Study on Recidivism in Male Mentally Disordered Sexual Offenders With and Without Psychotic Disorders

There is a lack of knowledge on mentally disordered sex offenders (MDSOs) targeting adult victims, especially regarding recidivism patterns and the specific subgroup with psychiatric disorders. This paper presents index offense data, clinical data, and recidivism patterns over up to 24 years in a cohort of 146 MDSOs, with and without psychotic disorders, sentenced in Sweden between 1993 and 1997. At the time of the offense, all offenders were affected by clinical, developmental, and criminal history factors. MDSOs with psychotic disorders only marginally differed from those without, the former being less likely to have been institutionalized during childhood, intoxicated during the index offense, or diagnosed with a personality disorder, substance use disorder, or paraphilic disorder. In the cohort, 3.4% of the MDSOs were reconvicted for a new sex offense over 2 years, 9.6% over 5 years, 13.0% over 10 years, and 17.1% over the entire follow-up period of 24 years. In MDSOs with psychotic disorders, no subjects were reconvicted during the first 2 years, while 2.6% were reconvicted over 5 years, 5.3% over 10 years, and 7.9% over 24 years. Recidivism rates for violent and general reoffenses were 39.0% and 37.7%, respectively, for the cohort of MDSOs, and subjects with psychotic disorders reoffended significantly later in general offenses. In conclusion, MDSOs with psychotic disorders showed the same recidivism pattern as MDSOs without psychotic disorders. Furthermore, recidivism research may preferably focus on follow-up periods of 5–10 years since most offenders appear to recidivate within this timeframe.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.